Banzuke for Haru 2023

[Asashosakari 19,500]

36 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

Another point that I would make is that Tokushoryu (14-1) was promoted from M17w to M2w landing behind Okinoumi (8-7) who jumped from M4e to M2e. There he would finish 4-11.

Shortly thereafter Terunofuji (13-2) was promoted from M17e to M1e landing ahead of Takanosho (8-7) who jumped from M2e to M1w.

 

The idea that there's a hard and fast rule explaining why Asanoyama (14-1) at J12w would or wouldn't jump ahead of Hokuseiho (9-6) at J2e is something that the evidence doesn't support.

Good thing nobody has said that there's a hard and fast rule then.

Also, using promotions within a division as reference for promotions into a division, tsk. Much to learn.

[Seiyashi 4,102]

18 minutes ago, Reonito said:

That had occurred to me, though one could also have argued for promoting him to give Keisho a proper challenger. It would for sure have been interesting to be a fly on the wall for that part of the discussion.

To quote you, probably a good time to recall that the evidence seems to show that banzuke making tends to be a Markov process which doesn't factor in qualitative considerations of this sort, or any sort, really. 

Won't be the first or last time we try and read a reason into the banzuke making that turns out to be hogwash. 

Edited February 28, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Asashosakari 19,500]

6 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

To quote you, probably a good time to recall that the evidence seems to show that banzuke making tends to be a Markov process which doesn't factor in qualitative considerations of this sort, or any sort, really

Although this Taka-Asa thing would have been a much more indirect (and thus, I'd argue, more likely) consideration than the odd topics of conversation that people usually come up with to ascribe to the committee, e.g. "they're going to promote X to komusubi rather than Y because X is more likely to get kachikoshi" as though it makes any difference to the tournament what the last komusubi's score is going to be.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

22 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Good thing nobody has said that there's a hard and fast rule then.

Also, using promotions within a division as reference for promotions into a division, tsk. Much to learn.

I hope one day I can be wise enough to put the confused emoji on every post.

[Reonito 1,477]

34 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

To quote you, probably a good time to recall that the evidence seems to show that banzuke making tends to be a Markov process which doesn't factor in qualitative considerations of this sort, or any sort, really. 

Won't be the first or last time we try and read a reason into the banzuke making that turns out to be hogwash. 

To be fair, the Markov process implication was that banzuke decisions (outside Y/O promotions, obviously) don't take into account performances older than the just-completed basho (e.g., things like "so-and-so should be over-promoted to rank X because they got bad banzuke luck last time"). Given the nature of the committee, I'd guess that subjective considerations beyond "the numbers" do come into it, but our ability to guess what they might be is next to nil.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

I asked a friendly bot what will happen:

Announcer: Welcome to Day 14 of the Grand Sumo Tournament! Today's matchup between Hokuseiho and Takakeisho has yusho implications, as both wrestlers are still in the hunt for the championship. Let's get right to the action!

Referee: "Hakkeyoi!"

Hokuseiho and Takakeisho crouch down low at the starting line, ready to charge at each other. The tension is palpable as the crowd holds its breath.

Referee: "Nokotta!"

The two wrestlers explode out of the starting line and charge towards each other with incredible speed.

Announcer: "Oh, what a collision! Hokuseiho and Takakeisho meet in the center of the ring with full force! Hokuseiho seems to have gotten the better of the initial charge, driving Takakeisho back a step."

Hokuseiho takes advantage of the momentary opening and quickly pushes Takakeisho towards the edge of the ring.

Announcer: "Hokuseiho is relentless, pushing Takakeisho to the edge! Takakeisho tries to dig in and hold his ground, but Hokuseiho's power is too much."

Takakeisho attempts to shift his weight and regain his balance, but Hokuseiho seizes the opportunity and shoves Takakeisho out of the ring.

Referee: "Gyoi-ten!"

Announcer: "Hokuseiho is the victor! What a dominant performance by the young up-and-comer. He improves to 12-2 and stays in the hunt for the championship, while Takakeisho falls to 11-3 and likely out of the running."

The crowd erupts in applause as Hokuseiho takes his bow and prepares for his next matchup. Takakeisho, meanwhile, looks dejected as he leaves the ring, knowing that his yusho hopes have taken a serious hit.

Announcer: "What a thrilling matchup we just witnessed! With only one day left in the tournament, the yusho race is still wide open. Don't miss tomorrow's action, as the best sumo wrestlers in the world battle it out for the championship!"

[Ripe 71]

3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Is this entirely due to the fact that he received a large increase in his base bonus because of his fast rise into the top division that he's not getting on his return?  I haven't done the math, but I certainly would expect he'd have gotten a large increase to his base amount when he was promoted to each sekitori division, but then while in Makuuchi racked up enough wins so that his base amount upon return would not be bumped up at all.  I had a similar thing going through my mind when Osunaarashi was demoted from Makuuchi, because he also had a large increase in his base amount from his fast rise.

Yup, a bonus he got on promotion to both Juryo and Makuuchi which he lost once he dropped out. And it's not just wins he racked up that prevented him not getting it back, it was also a Kinboshi and bonus he got for his Yusho.

 

[shumitto 418]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

To be fair, the Markov process implication was that banzuke decisions (outside Y/O promotions, obviously) don't take into account performances older than the just-completed basho (e.g., things like "so-and-so should be over-promoted to rank X because they got bad banzuke luck last time"). Given the nature of the committee, I'd guess that subjective considerations beyond "the numbers" do come into it, but our ability to guess what they might be is next to nil.

One thing they like to do is underpromote or overpromote a recently punished rikishi just to extend his punishment, so to speak, even when said rikishi was not forced to sit out a certain number of basho. Another thing they like to do is to forget how they dealt with a particular situation in the past. That's why we get inconsistent outcomes in similar situations.

 

[Yamanashi 3,874]

4 hours ago, shumitto said:

Another thing they like to do is to forget how they dealt with a particular situation in the past

I'd like to forget about situations in the past, but I can't remember how to do it.

[Koorifuu 1,003]

22 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

Shiden was promoted to Juryo and hasn't fought a single match there because ... gambling. "Yes that makes perfect sense."
Asanoyama had roughly the same promotion packet as Hokuseiho and destroyed him head to head on day 15 and could do it 5 more times in a row - people are considering promoting him ahead of Hokuseiho. "I don't understand what that could possibly have to do with the banzuke."

That's not really how it works though, is it?
Taking sandanme tsukedashi as examples. No sdTD recipient has ever managed less than 5 wins in either of their first two basho, making it to at least lower makushita then. Everybody just takes it for granted they're at least mid makushita level, even before they start walloping sandanme level guys left and right. Yet, they aren't given more generous promotions than the unsalaried journeymen who stumble into the same result at similar rankings.

Edited March 1, 2023 by Koorifuu

[just_some_guy 281]

21 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

The two wrestlers explode out of the starting line and charge towards each other with incredible speed.

Announcer: "Oh, what a collision! Hokuseiho and Takakeisho meet in the center of the ring with full force! Hokuseiho seems to have gotten the better of the initial charge, driving Takakeisho back a step." 

The bot lost me here as it clearly has not seen Hokuseiho's tachiai. "Hokuseiho just kinda stands up" would be more accurate.

[Bunbukuchagama 739]

3 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

That's not really how it works though, is it?
Taking sandanme tsukedashi as examples. No sdTD recipient has ever managed less than 5 wins in either of their first two basho, making it to at least lower makushita then. Everybody just takes it for granted they're at least mid makushita level, even before they start walloping sandanme level guys left and right. Yet, they aren't given more generous promotions than the unsalaried journeymen who stumble into the same result at similar rankings.

Also, a lot of post-college rikishi are not given tsukedashi and produce 7-0 records to start their ozumo careers at the very bottom of the banzuke. Did anyone really expect them to struggle in Jonokuchi?

[maglor 122]

Western sumo fans(maybe japanese ones too, idk) frequently ascribe all sorts of motivations to the banzuke committee (They're not promoting Asanoyama because they're punishing him! They'll promote him to give Takakeisho a challenge! They won't promote Abi to Sekiwake so soon after his punishment!) when I have honestly seen 0 evidence of them behaving this way. 

This is also the same way I feel about Ozeki promotion. Not denying that there are factors outside of win count that go into Ozeki promotion like how convincing you look or if you're too young and stuff like that. But I feel like it's become almost gospel among sumo fans that they are more strict when there are more Y/O and less strict when there are less. If you actually look at history though, you see Takanohana denied with 8-14-10 at a time there were no Yokozuna and 2 Ozeki, and Terunofuji promoted with 8-13-12 when there were 3 Yokozuna and 3 Ozeki.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

4 hours ago, maglor said:

Western sumo fans(maybe japanese ones too, idk) frequently ascribe all sorts of motivations to the banzuke committee (They're not promoting Asanoyama because they're punishing him! They'll promote him to give Takakeisho a challenge! They won't promote Abi to Sekiwake so soon after his punishment!) when I have honestly seen 0 evidence of them behaving this way. 

This is also the same way I feel about Ozeki promotion. Not denying that there are factors outside of win count that go into Ozeki promotion like how convincing you look or if you're too young and stuff like that. But I feel like it's become almost gospel among sumo fans that they are more strict when there are more Y/O and less strict when there are less. If you actually look at history though, you see Takanohana denied with 8-14-10 at a time there were no Yokozuna and 2 Ozeki, and Terunofuji promoted with 8-13-12 when there were 3 Yokozuna and 3 Ozeki.

Takanohana had 19 losses in 4 tournaments and Terunofuji had 12. Or if you prefer, 13 vs 10 (for 3 tournaments).

[maglor 122]

I'm not sure what math you're doing; Terunofuji's last 4 basho before his first Ozeki promotion were 8-7; 8-7; 13-2; 12-3. 12 losses in his last 3 tournaments and 19 in his last 4.

[cyclonicleo 19]

On 27/02/2023 at 05:19, maglor said:

The only former Ozeki to fall into Juryo and not retire that basho in the modern era were Miyabiyama(baseball gambling suspension), Terunofuji, and Asanoyama. Interesting to see what Tochinoshin does if he can't immediately make it back up.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&showhighest=on&form1_rank=J&form1_year=1958-2023&form2_rank=Y-Jk&sort_by=high

I hate to say it, but I think he's starting down the barrel of retirement.

[sahaven111 176]

On 03/03/2023 at 03:56, cyclonicleo said:

I hate to say it, but I think he's starting down the barrel of retirement.

True, but let's be honest. He didn't have much of an ozeki career like most other ozeki who retired to avoid falling to juryo (Konishiki, Kirishima, etc.)

Apart from Kotoshogiku, the other two ozeki who fought in juryo after falling naturally were Miyabiyama and Daiju. doesn't that say something?

additionally, this is a new era and the standards for retirement are different. I could easily see Tochinoshin continuing in juryo for a time. He could bounce back, but i see him staying in juryo until his retirement early next year.

[Benevolance 2,501]

I honestly thought that the banzuke makers would goof up, accidentally put Shodai at Ozeki, and that's how he'd get his rank back. 

[ryafuji 815]

17 hours ago, sahaven111 said:

True, but let's be honest. He didn't have much of an ozeki career like most other ozeki who retired to avoid falling to juryo (Konishiki, Kirishima, etc.)

Apart from Kotoshogiku, the other two ozeki who fought in juryo after falling naturally were Miyabiyama and Daiju. doesn't that say something?

additionally, this is a new era and the standards for retirement are different. I could easily see Tochinoshin continuing in juryo for a time. He could bounce back, but i see him staying in juryo until his retirement early next year.

As he has a family to provide for and business interests in Georgia I'm sure he will keep that sekitori salary going for as long as he can. 

[Wakawakawaka 157]

Yea, though I walk through the hanamichi of the shadow of make-koshi, I fear no demotion, for the banzuke committee is with me.

- Kagayaki 1:23

[sahaven111 176]

23 minutes ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Yea, though I walk through the hanamichi of the shadow of make-koshi, I fear no demotion, for the banzuke committee is with me.

- Kagayaki 1:23

Really! now that i look at it he seems to have such consistently good banzuke luck. It's weird how he lucks out so often. Conversely he doesn't seem to have great promotion luck. Is the banzuke committee conspiring to keep Kagayaki squarely at low Maegashira, no more no less?

[Wakawakawaka 157]

 

32 minutes ago, sahaven111 said:

Really! now that i look at it he seems to have such consistently good banzuke luck. It's weird how he lucks out so often. Conversely he doesn't seem to have great promotion luck. Is the banzuke committee conspiring to keep Kagayaki squarely at low Maegashira, no more no less?

I'm sure there's a proverbs 30:8-9 pun to be made in that regard, 'give me neither juryo nor joi', and so on. ;)

[Akinomaki 40,666]

On 27/02/2023 at 09:46, Swami said:

I see on the official JSA website, Hokuseiho seems to have grown another 4cm, now listed at 204cm.

On the recent doskoi-ken, he was shown with the other two at 204, Akebono and Kotooshu, definitely the hair that makes him as big as them.

Ochiai will grow considerably from now on.