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YDC Post Hatsu 2023

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9 hours ago, Reonito said:

Hakuho wasn't promoted with a 14-1Y 13-2 J. Musashimaru wasn't promoted with a 12-3J 15-0Y (yes, a zensho wasn't enough). Just two more of many examples post-Futahaguro of stronger cases than Takakeisho's being declined.

Jun-yusho and doten are considered quite different. One is a clear runner-up, the other yusho equivalent. 

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Komura thinks that nobody will be asking for a high level yusho for next basho as a condition for promotion, emphasizing that Takakeisho in his (semi-)home basho in Osaka decided juryo and ozeki promotion, a place with good experience for him and hopefully again next time.

As contenders for ozeki he names the Onami brothers and Hoshoryu, all of them without double digits this basho, the comment he gave on it is interesting for the promotion thread: It is fun when the fellow sekiwake compete for ozeki with a start from zero http://www.zakzak.co.jp/article/20230124-GIZPAQ7QABPTBJ4K7XZ5XVK4NY/

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9 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Takanohana Koji had an 11-4J, 14-1Y and 13-2D when there was one yokozuna, and they didn't promote him then. He had to wait over a year and four yusho later before being promoted. His brother on the other hand did get promoted with a 12-3Y, but he had a 14-1Y before that to satisfy the criteria

9 hours ago, Reonito said:

Hakuho wasn't promoted with a 14-1Y 13-2 J. Musashimaru wasn't promoted with a 12-3J 15-0Y (yes, a zensho wasn't enough). Just two more of many examples post-Futahaguro of stronger cases than Takakeisho's being declined.

Are you guys seriously putting on the table the most blatant cases of 1990s "no equivalent" policy to build an argument against Takakeisho? I'd dare to say that we currently are in a "Post-Post-Futahaguro Era" since at least Kakuryu's promotion after Haru 2014. I believe we should look at the last ten-odd years of sumo to better understand how the YDC will play an eventual 12-3D 12-3Y 12-3Y from Takakeisho.

Let's make a short resume. The first time that an "equivalent" performance was considered again was, to my knowledge, in Aki 2004 after Kaiou won the precedent tournament with a 13-2Y. Kaiou was told to score at least 13 wins for promotion, but instead posted a 12-3J (25/30) and wasn't promoted (here). The second instance was, in fact, Hakuho in Nagoya 2006. He had just won his shin-Ozeki tournament with a 14-1Y and Kitanoumi-rijicho explicitly put 13 wins as a must to be promoted (here). Hakuho went 13-2J but wasn't promoted despite the fact he hit bullseye at least as far as the number of wins were concerned. His total was 27/30 and this remains the highest post-2004 score with a jun-yusho to not result in a promotion. Theoretically, we can put in the middle Tochiazuma's 14-1Y in Hatsu 2006 and his subsequent 12-3 third place in the following tournament (26/30). The simple fact that he was denied promotion provides a precedent for a jun-yusho to be a necessary prerequisite for promotion.

These early cases were followed by a bunch of one-off Yusho from Ozeki who didn't come anywhere close to 10+ wins in their second tournament (Kotooshu, Natsu 2008; Harumafuji, Natsu 2009 and Nagoya 2011; Baruto, Hatsu 2012; Kotoshogiku, Hatsu 2016; Goeido, Aki 2016). The next actual case was Kakuryu's successful bid in Haru 2014 thanks to an extremely strong showing (14-1D 14-1Y, 28/30+D). Kakuryu's post was higher than Hakuho's 2006 total, so there is no surprise it was accepted, constituting our first modern precedent for a promotion with the "equivalent" formula. Next came, of course, Kisenosato with an actually debatable 12-3J 14-1Y (26/30) successful bid between Kyushu 2016 and Hatsu 2017. Kisenosato previously posted an unimpressive 10-5 in Aki 2016, but had collected four jun-yusho throughout 2016 and totaled 69 wins in the 2016 solar year. Kisenosato's promotion is however at odds with Hakuho's denied promotion back in 2006, at a point of the year in which he already collected 53 wins (in four basho) and three jun-yusho contouring his yusho. Although Kisenosato had a remarkable trousseau of wins to provide, with his promotion it became clear that 26/30 was now an acceptable total score even with an "equivalent". This thesis was further proved by Terunofuji's promotion after Nagoya 2021 with a 12-3Y 14-1J (26/30). Terunofuji himself brought a significant trousseau, including another 12-3Y as Sekiwake and a total of again 69 wins in his previous six tournaments (including two yusho, which Kisenosato failed to get). Overall, we can consider Terunofuji's case somewhat stronger than Kisenosato, whose promotion remains our "weakest" post-2004 promotion.

In short, by precedents alone it is apparent that for any "equivalent" to be accepted, it must be either 28+ wins, or 26+ in addition to something like 60-70 wins throughout the last year. Back-to-back yusho resulting in a Yokozuna promotion, on the other hand, never went below 25/30. This is actually not a particularly bad news for Takakeisho. If we count in a prospected 12-3Y in Haru, he would have totaled 65 wins in his last six tournaments. His only problem would be his consequential 24/30 back-to-back yusho. Unfortunately, there are no precedents for a 12-3Y 12-3Y to be passed over on the grounds of weak performance, for the simple reason 12-3Y is a historically mediocre result and bested by better final scores in most bashos (2022 says hi). The main problem is that promoting Takakeisho with something like 65/90 (over six basho), 36/45 (over three basho, the weakest promotion by this standard was Asashio III with 38/45 in 1959), and 24/30 scores would make a new weakest promotion case ever. By the rule-book, Takakeisho should be asked for at least a 13-2Y (25/30 back-to-back) or 14-1J (26/30 Y-J) to make things somewhat more even (66-67/90, 36-37/45, 25-26/30), but considering that the YDC already lowered their standards for Kisenosato (and Kaiou before him, only to raise them again for Hakuho) we cannot be sure whether they will stick to their older standards again. Moreover, there is no actual modern precedent for denying a back-to-back yusho promotion, as @Akinomaki pointed out. Both Chiyonoyama's 1950 refused promotion for reasons of youth, but also Tamanishiki's 1931 bureaucratic total mess (three yusho in a row, yet promotion denied - reasons in PS) predate the foundation of the modern YDC and could be passed over at will.

In conclusion, we are in a totally uncharted territory. It's exclusively up to the YDC - or the NSK in ultimate instance - to decide whether a 12-3Y 12-3Y can be accepted as a valid back-to-back yusho and "dominant performance", or that something more must be required anyway. Hinkaku can be brought up in case of need (in the guise of a "you'd better show us you are not going to become a kinboshi machine") but would really be a desperate move. I think they hope that things will adjust 'by themselves', for instance someone finishing Haru basho with only 2 losses and therefore obliging Takakeisho either to speed his game up or to throw in the towel.

P.S. Tamanishiki's 1931 denied promotion

Spoiler

I cannot remember where I found those information - I checked his jp wikipedia page but nothing came out - so if anyone knows this issue better than me is warmly invited to step in. Anyway, Tokyo Sumo and Osaka Sumo merged in 1927, yet retained two separated Banzuke Committees for a number of years. In 1931, Ozeki Tamanishiki won three yusho between Jugatsu 1930 and Sangatsu 1931 (i.e. October, January, and March) with a 9-2Y 9-2Y 10-1Y score. Miyagiyama, the last reigning Yokozuna, retired after that latter basho, so there were no Yokozuna in the banzuke. However, the Tokyo Sumo Committee could not propose Tamanishiki for Yokozuna immediately, as he won his first and third yusho in basho 'belonging' to the Osaka Sumo Committee. Basically - as I understood that -, each Committee promoted and demoted rikishi under the results they yielded during 'their' basho. This also caused several rikishi with demoting scores to remain frozen in their position for an extra basho. Long story short, Tamanishiki resulted to have won only one yusho as far as the Tokyo Committee was concerned, and was recommended to win again in Natsu to be promoted to Yokozuna. Of course Tamanishiki failed his task and went 8-3 third place (Natsu 1931 banzuke). He was eventually promoted in 1932 largely because of the Shunjuen Incident scandal that profoundly shook sumo. Tamanishiki, their best performing Ozeki, did not leave the NSK and was promoted as a thanks without even waiting for him to win a "cover-up" yusho.

 

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11 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Takanohana Koji had an 11-4J, 14-1Y and 13-2D when there was one yokozuna, and they didn't promote him then. He had to wait over a year and four yusho later before being promoted. His brother on the other hand did get promoted with a 12-3Y, but he had a 14-1Y before that to satisfy the criteria

And, in hindsight, were those the "correct" decisions?

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15 hours ago, Ripe said:

Maybe it is nostalgia when it comes to Takakeisho... but I wouldn't be surprised if the issue get raised if Asanoyama ever get back to Ozeki and start looking to Yokozuna promotion.

From your lips to the ears of the many gods of Shinto.

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3 hours ago, yorikiried by fate said:
15 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Takanohana Koji had an 11-4J, 14-1Y and 13-2D when there was one yokozuna, and they didn't promote him then. He had to wait over a year and four yusho later before being promoted. His brother on the other hand did get promoted with a 12-3Y, but he had a 14-1Y before that to satisfy the criteria

And, in hindsight, were those the "correct" decisions?

I buy @Hankegami's argument about a Post^2-Futahaguro era (although I wouldn't perhaps put it as strongly as he does), but I don't think a hindsight evaluation of at least the Hanada brothers brings anything to the table. For all we know Wakanohana could have won a few championships without injury. And in a climate fresh from the gaijin yokozuna furore over Konishiki, it was only fair for the NSK and the YDC to hold Takanohana to the same standard as they did Akebono.

The other two standout examples of weak causation between promotion criteria and subsequent performance are Harumafuji and Kisenosato. Kisenosato had a soft promotion but it was his injury that derailed his career, not the softness of the promotion. On the flip side, Harumafuji had the strongest possible promotion case, so by that logic he should have beaten even Hakuhō in performance.

To put it another way, the only time you can draw a direct link between promotion criteria and subsequent performance is when the rest of makuuchi and the wrestler's own body remains invariant, and that's a tall ask.

Edited by Seiyashi
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4 hours ago, yorikiried by fate said:

Takakeisho is not Japanese?!

That was the whole point of the post..

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21 hours ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Fun fact: If Takakeisho gets promoted after the March tournament and Terunofuji doesn't compete, it will be the first time since at least 1927 that someone got promoted to Yokozuna without facing, let alone beating an Ozeki/Yokozuna.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=3722

You can't really count Miyagiyama as he became Yokozuna in 1922 with Osaka sumo which merged 1927 with the NSK.

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22 hours ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Fun fact: If Takakeisho gets promoted after the March tournament and Terunofuji doesn't compete, it will be the first time since at least 1927 that someone got promoted to Yokozuna without facing, let alone beating an Ozeki/Yokozuna.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=3722

True, but not really his fault.  He was 1-1 against Terunofuji in 2022, and hasn't met him since July.

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On 24/01/2023 at 12:33, Hankegami said:

P.S. Tamanishiki's 1931 denied promotion

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I cannot remember where I found those information - I checked his jp wikipedia page but nothing came out - so if anyone knows this issue better than me is warmly invited to step in. Anyway, Tokyo Sumo and Osaka Sumo merged in 1927, yet retained two separated Banzuke Committees for a number of years. In 1931, Ozeki Tamanishiki won three yusho between Jugatsu 1930 and Sangatsu 1931 (i.e. October, January, and March) with a 9-2Y 9-2Y 10-1Y score. Miyagiyama, the last reigning Yokozuna, retired after that latter basho, so there were no Yokozuna in the banzuke. However, the Tokyo Sumo Committee could not propose Tamanishiki for Yokozuna immediately, as he won his first and third yusho in basho 'belonging' to the Osaka Sumo Committee. Basically - as I understood that -, each Committee promoted and demoted rikishi under the results they yielded during 'their' basho. This also caused several rikishi with demoting scores to remain frozen in their position for an extra basho. Long story short, Tamanishiki resulted to have won only one yusho as far as the Tokyo Committee was concerned, and was recommended to win again in Natsu to be promoted to Yokozuna. Of course Tamanishiki failed his task and went 8-3 third place (Natsu 1931 banzuke). He was eventually promoted in 1932 largely because of the Shunjuen Incident scandal that profoundly shook sumo. Tamanishiki, their best performing Ozeki, did not leave the NSK and was promoted as a thanks without even waiting for him to win a "cover-up" yusho.

 

There were no alternating committees, just alternating rankings, and that approach was already scrapped in 1929. The years you're talking about saw them combine the results of two tournaments (one Tokyo, one not-Tokyo) to create one new banzuke for the next two tournaments, an entirely different approach.


Edit: I see there's an unsourced note on Tamanishiki's ja.wiki article that claims the two-combined-basho approach to the banzuke meant that it would have taken four consecutive tournament championships for him to be treated as "winning two back-to-back titles". I find that interpretation highly dubious as it would imply that they essentially considered each honbasho to be a half-tournament (why on Earth would they do that, especially coming off the brief alternating-banzuke period which clearly treated each basho as highly important in its own right), not to mention that back-to-back yusho wasn't even an established promotion standard at the time.

Anyway, a new banzuke was drawn up after Tamanishiki's third consecutive yusho, so it's outright nonsensical to say (as the ja.wiki article does) that what he still needed to do was win the first tournament of the next two-basho cycle; they couldn't possibly have credibly promised to promote him off of that since there was still another tournament to go with him as ozeki in any case. I'll continue to go with the traditional explanation that he was a hothead from an unimportant stable who rubbed too many people the wrong way and consequently had no advocates. Ozeki and yokozuna promotions were a lot more political in those days than they are now.

Edited by Asashosakari
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Loosely related fun fact:

since 03/2020 the Yusho score was:

2 x 15:0

0 x 14:1

8 x 13:2

7 x 12:3

Average 12.8

From 01/2004 - 01/2020 Yushos were mostly 14:1, average 13.8 .

Clearly, we currently have a phase of low Yusho scores.

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6 minutes ago, Andreas21 said:

Loosely related fun fact:

since 03/2020 the Yusho score was:

2 x 15:0

0 x 14:1

8 x 13:2

7 x 12:3

Average 12.8

From 01/2004 - 01/2020 Yushos were mostly 14:1, average 13.8 .

Clearly, we currently have a phase of low Yusho scores.

Proof that we are in a Sengoku period rather than a Shogunate.

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2 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Proof that we are in a Sengoku period rather than a Shogunate.

I guess you said that since the winner of the last basho was Uesugi Kanetsugu, while two of the three children of Mori Motonari are in the top ranks (references here and here - seriously, did they chose those shikona on purpose?).

Anyway, no young lad has yet chosen a shikona bearing the name of Tokugawa Ieyasu? It could be a signal.

Edited by Hankegami
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1 hour ago, Hankegami said:

I guess you said that since the winner of the last basho was Uesugi Kanetsugu, while two of the three children of Mori Motonari are in the top ranks (references here and here - seriously, did they chose those shikona on purpose?).

Anyway, no young lad has yet chosen a shikona bearing the name of Tokugawa Ieyasu? It could be a signal.

Tokushōryū. (only semi kidding, since he does share a character, and even hails from Nara where Tokugawa Ieyasu is enshrined IIRC as Tōshō Daigongen) 

And yes and yes. Takakeishō via Takanohana's idolisation of Uesugi Kenshin hence picking the name of a descendent Kagekatsu, and the Onami brothers because of the parable of Mori Motonari's sons. 

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5 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Proof that we are in a Sengoku period rather than a Shogunate.

I feel like there's something wonky with the proof and stats considering that period contains two of the most dominant yokozunas in sumo history. Not every yokozuna hits 14s casually. 

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On 24/01/2023 at 19:33, Hankegami said:

how the YDC will play an eventual 12-3D 12-3Y 12-3Y

No complex calculations required: that’s a promotion. We’re talking about a guy with a solid record of JYs backing up three existing yusho, not some new kid on the block. That string of records there is unambiguously a promotion run.

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34 minutes ago, code_number3 said:

I remember how livid Chris Gould was when Takakeisho’s ōzeki promotion was denied ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

I think that's the one that probably came down to a single bout: he needed to beat Goeido on day 15 but he lost... badly.

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9 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

And yes and yes. Takakeishō via Takanohana's idolisation of Uesugi Kenshin hence picking the name of a descendent Kagekatsu, and the Onami brothers because of the parable of Mori Motonari's sons. 

 i need to use the translator for that sentence. Onami brothers was the only thing I understood.

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18 hours ago, Andreas21 said:

Loosely related fun fact:

since 03/2020 the Yusho score was:

2 x 15:0

0 x 14:1

8 x 13:2

7 x 12:3

Average 12.8

From 01/2004 - 01/2020 Yushos were mostly 14:1, average 13.8 .

Clearly, we currently have a phase of low Yusho scores.

No, it's in fact THE phase of LOWEST scores. I wrote about that in the graph update only recently:

Quote

Based on that, I figured it would be interesting to look at wins-for-yusho-averages for every year since 1958. Naturally, this couldn't be based on just peering at the Graph, as I include win numbers only for a limited set of cases. Therefore, I returned to the source for all info in the piece, i.e. the Doitsubase.
So, in fact 2022 had the all-time lowest wins-needed-to-yusho average with 12.33. There are only 6 years overall, were the average was below 13:
1. 2022 12.33 (13, 12, 12, 12, 13, 12)
2. 1961 12.67 (13, 13, 12, 13, 12, 13)
 . 1975 12.67 (12, 13, 13, 13, 12, 13)
 . 1999 12.67 (13, 13, 13, 13, 12, 12)
5. 1972 12.83 (11, 12, 12, 13, 15, 14)
 . 2003 12.83 (14, 12, 13, 12, 13, 13)
The average over all years – btw – is currently 13.61.

The 12-3 in January is a continuation of this.

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