Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

[lackmaker 432]

There must be a conspiracy.

[Akinomaki 39,798]

49 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

How do we feel about Oho, Mitoryu and Bushozan all winning and therefore collectively and figuratively flipping Asanoyama the bird?

That's what usually happens in the end, those in most need to win on the last day win

[Akinomaki 39,798]

Kiribayama laid the foundation for an ozeki run, Wakamotoharu is also expected to get to sekiwake in several reports, so probably 4 sekiwake again - and 4 komusubi, up Daieisho of course and I think Tobizaru with kachikoshi at m1e - Tamawashi got mentioned as well (and would be needed to have 4 komusubi then, so I don't doubt it)

Edited January 22, 2023 by Akinomaki

[Sakura 1,472]

5 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Kiribayama laid the foundation for an ozeki run, Wakamotoharu is also expected to get to sekiwake in several reports, so probably 4 sekiwake again - and 4 komusubi, up Daieisho of course and I think Tobizaru with kachikoshi at m1e - Tamawashi got mentioned as well, but I doubt he'll get promoted

How reliable are these reports?

[Akinomaki 39,798]

1 hour ago, Sakura said:

How reliable are these reports?

Looks like mostly from papers that support the rikishi, and no wording that indicates a very high probability 

Edit: actually it's Kyodo with "(very) likely both brothers at sekiwake" in the title https://www.47news.jp/news/8843499.html

Edited January 22, 2023 by Akinomaki

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Kiribayama with 11 has classically forced an extra sekiwake slot. I don't know about a 4th sekiwake since no one else has done enough to deserve one. Shōdai will fall further than komusubi, so Kotonowaka, Wakamotoharu, Tobizaru, and Daieishō will take up 4 komusubi spots. Then there's not even going to be a major jam just below that since Shōdai, Abi, Tamawashi will be there. The devilry is in the M3-8 area just outside the joi, but it doesn't look anywhere near as bad as last GTB, at least not at first glance. 

[Kaito 275]

There are a couple tricky sections, but after last time, filling this one out felt like a breeze. At least I feel like I know how many sanyaku to expect.

[ryafuji 807]

13 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Kiribayama with 11 has classically forced an extra sekiwake slot. I don't know about a 4th sekiwake since no one else has done enough to deserve one.

Wakamotoharu has 9-6 from komusubi, that's enough. If there were 4 sekiwake this time, no reason not to have 4 sekiwake in March as well. 

[Jakusotsu 5,815]

22 minutes ago, ryafuji said:

Wakamotoharu has 9-6 from komusubi, that's enough. If there were 4 sekiwake this time, no reason not to have 4 sekiwake in March as well. 

Different situation. Take Abi, for example, who had two 9-6 as Komusubi in a row without getting promoted, and there were just two Sekiwake at that time.

[Kishinoyama 582]

1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

Kiribayama laid the foundation for an ozeki run, Wakamotoharu is also expected to get to sekiwake in several reports….

I like the Waka brothers so it would be great to see them at Sekiwake together.

It will also be great to see Kiribayama as a Sekiwake. Hopefully 11 wins will force the committee to open a slot. I can’t see an ozeki promotion unless he gets at least 13 wins in the next tournament.

Congratulations to another one of my favorites Nishikigi for getting 9 wins. 

[Gurowake 3,922]

If they use the same methodology as last basho, where every joi rikishi with a promotable score was promoted, we'll end up with the same number in sanyaku - Shodai, Meisei, and Takayasu down for Tobizaru, Daieisho, and Tamawashi.  How to organize those below Ozeki into the two ranks is easy other than pondering whether they want to keep 4 Sekiwake or are OK with 3 and 5 Komusubi.  This requires guessing at why they promoted Takayasu to Sekiwake last time.  If it was to put the most deserving candidate there so as to have the nice and neat 4S + 4K, then we should expect Wakamotoharu, or possibly Daieisho, to get the nod as the fourth Sekiwake beyond the two incumbents and Kiribayama.  If it was because they wanted to be able to promote Takayasu to Ozeki after this basho, then they'd be fine with 5 Komusubi.

There doesn't appear to be as bad of a crunch in the joi compared to last time if they don't promote Tamawashi and maybe even Daieisho, but they've shown in the past that if they're forced to promote someone at M1e, they'll promote others who have a better rank/record than who they have to promote, and Tamawashi just barely fits in that category.  Thus even going by older sanyaku promotion rules, we'd expect the same result as what happened last basho in terms of all promotable records being promoted.

The worst part of the banzuke appears to be the bottom.  There are a lot of rikishi that deserve to be very close to the bottom of the banzuke, but someone has to fill the slots above them.  It looks like Kagayaki and Kotoeko will maintain their spots, and there will be large promotions for Takarafuji and some Juryo promotees and/or small demotions for Oho and Chiyoshoma. 

[Koorifuu 886]

7 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

This requires guessing at why they promoted Takayasu to Sekiwake last time.

It seems to be customary that they force a sekiwake spot for 'ozeki runners' on their 3rd and final basho. Nobody has gone from komusubi (or lower) straight to ozeki in modern times.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Koorifuu

[Rocks 1,807]

I think normally they would be fine with 5 komusubi but the ability to even out the banzuke and the PR value of having Sekiwake brothers will be enough to push them to go 4 & 4. 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Rocks

[Gurowake 3,922]

Juryo guess:

Asanoyama(14-1 J12w)	J1	Tohakuryu(9-6 J4e)
Chiyonokuni(10-5 J7e)	J2	Ichinojo(0-0 M7e)
Shonannoumi(12-3 J13e)	J3	Tochinoshin(2-3 M11w)
Oshoma(7-8 J3w)	J4	Roga(9-6 J9e)
Enho(7-8 J4w)	J5	Chiyomaru(4-11 M16w)
Gonoyama(9-6 J10e)	J6	Daiamami(5-10 J2w)
Hidenoumi(8-7 J9w)	J7	Shimazuumi(9-6 J11w)
Akua(3-12 J1e)	J8	Tsushimanada(9-6 J14e)
Atamifuji(3-8 J3e)	J9	Hakuyozan(9-6 J14w)
Kotokuzan(4-11 J5w)	J10	Churanoumi(4-11 J6e)
Shimanoumi(5-10 J8e)	J11	Kitanowaka(5-10 J8w)
Takakento(7-8 J12e)	J12	Tamashoho(4-3 Ms1e)
Tochimusashi(4-11 J7w)	J13	Tomokaze(4-3 Ms2e)
Tokushoryu(4-3 Ms2w)	J14	Ochiai(7-0 TDe)

Similar to Makuuchi, there are a lot of people that deserve to be ranked near the bottom of the division.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

Final update

 

Makuuchi -> Juryo

Okinoumi *

Chiyomaru M16w  4-11

Tochinoshin M11w 2-3-10

Ichinojo M7e 0-0-15

Juryo -> Makuuchi

Daishoho J6w 12-3

Kinbozan J5e 11-4

Bushozan J1w 9-6

Hokuseiho J2e 9-6

Asanoyama J12w 14-1

 

Mitoryu's win prevented Asanoyama's promotion?

 

Juryo -> Makushita

Okinoumi *

Kaisho J13w 5-10

Chiyosakae J11e 5-10

Terutsuyoshi J10w 5-10

Makushita -> Juryo

Tamashoho Ms1e 4-3

Ochiai Ms15TD  7-0

Tomokaze Ms2e 4-3

Tokushoryu Ms2w 4-3

 

Will Ochiai qualify for promotion? Will Terutsuyoshi be demoted?

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Bunbukuchagama
Corrected

[Benihana 1,901]

On 17/01/2023 at 04:06, dingo said:

Bud Spencer vs Hakuho -- who would win? 

Bud Spencer. He would harite Hakuho SO HARD, the latter would flee back into the mongolian steppe. 

[Reonito 1,335]

5 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

How do we feel about Oho, Mitoryu and Bushozan all winning and therefore collectively and figuratively flipping Asanoyama the bird?

So Oho is safe for sure. Daishoho, Bushozan and Kinbozan are no-doubt promotions. For Asanoyama to come up, they'd either have to jump him over Hokuseiho (is it at all meaningful that Asnoyama won the H2H on senshuraku?) or push down Mitoryu. Will Asanoyama become only the second rikishi in history, and the first since 1959, to go 14-1 or better in Juryo and not go up?

Edited January 22, 2023 by Reonito

[Masunofuji 36]

East	Rank	West
Terunofuji	YO
	O	Takakeisho
Wakatakakage	S	Hoshoryu
Kiribayama	S	Wakamotoharu
Kotonowaka	K	Daieisho
Tamawashi	K	Tobizaru
Abi	M1	Ryuden
Nishikigi	M2	Shodai
Mitakeumi	M3	Meisei
Onosho	M4	Midorifuji
Kotoshoho	M5	Sadanoumi
Endo	M6	Hokutofuji
Takayasu	M7	Nishikifuji
Ura	M8	Myogiryu
Aoiyama	M9	Hiradoumi
Ichiyamamoto	M10	Takanosho
Azumaryu	M11	Oho
Kagayaki	M12	Chiyoshoma
Takarafuji	M13	Bushozan
Kotoeko	M14	Hokuseiho
Kinbozan	M15	Tsurugisho
Mitoryu	M16	Asanoyama

 

Is anyone else being driven crazy by how copying Asashosakari's neat layout doesn't work? I sure am.

[Reonito 1,335]

4 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Kiribayama laid the foundation for an ozeki run, Wakamotoharu is also expected to get to sekiwake in several reports, so probably 4 sekiwake again - and 4 komusubi, up Daieisho of course and I think Tobizaru with kachikoshi at m1e - Tamawashi got mentioned as well (and would be needed to have 4 komusubi then, so I don't doubt it)

I'd be very surprised in they promoted Wakamotoharu, since the standard for K -> S when no slot is open is 11+ wins, and there is no compelling banzuke reason to do it.

[Gurowake 3,922]

5 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I'd be very surprised in they promoted Wakamotoharu, since the standard for K -> S when no slot is open is 11+ wins, and there is no compelling banzuke reason to do it.

So you think the reason they promoted Takayasu to Sekiwake this basho is solely because they wanted to give him the shot at Ozeki, and not because they thought 4+4 was neater than 3+5?  Also, you might consider that Wakamotoharu now has 19 wins in two joi basho (he was #16 that competed last basho), so maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea to give him a short at Ozeki next basho either with a Yusho.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,335]

5 minutes ago, Masunofuji said:

Takarafuji M13 Bushozan Kotoeko M14 Hokuseiho Kinbozan M15 Tsurugisho Mitoryu M16 Asanoyama

Where's Daishoho?

[Reonito 1,335]

1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

So you think the reason they promoted Takayasu to Sekiwake this basho is solely because they wanted to give him the shot at Ozeki, and not because they thought 4+4 was neater than 3+5?  Also, you might consider that Wakamotoharu now has 19 wins in two joi basho, so maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea to give him a short at Ozeki next basho either with a Yusho.

Yes. I'm also not convinced they'll stay with 8 S/K, though of course I was spectacularly wrong about this last time. As for Ozeki Wakamotoharu, that seems extremely premature for someone who's been in the top division for a year and moved up steadily but not dominantly, and you'd have to count a 10-5 at M4. If he puts up double-digits next time, sure, bump him up to S for May and see what he can do.

[Masunofuji 36]

7 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Where's Daishoho?

At J1 somewhere I think, together with Tohakuryu. No way they're keeping Asanoyama down there for another basho.

[Akinomaki 39,798]

Kitanofuji thinks they have to promote Asanoyama: he finds it unbearable that a juryo man is top fan favorite this basho, this has to be one from makuuchi http://www.sanspo.com/article/20230123-2LRGPO6MRNAZ7BBKLM6NSFDFT4/

On 12/01/2023 at 22:01, Akinomaki said:

Asanoyama is regular top in juryo, days 2 and 3 Enho overtook him, but now it's him also when Enho wins. I haven't posted that for a while, the NHK top three bouts of the day, the ones viewed most on their website: Asanoyama was top for the first four days, and not just juryo, overall.

On day 14, for which the rankings were shown today when Kitanofuji commentated, Asanoyama's bout was again top and the top 10 bouts on the NHK rankings of the basho are all those of Asanoyama: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/sports/special/sumomovies/

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

17 minutes ago, Masunofuji said:

At J1 somewhere I think, together with Tohakuryu. No way they're keeping Asanoyama down there for another basho.

It doesn't make sense, his case for promotion is the strongest by the numbers.