Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

2 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

A casual look at the last several Yokozuna (and their losses in the preceding two basho before elevation) show that there certainly was a tendency to drop some to rank-and-filers:

It happens to all of them at some time, but I think the broader point (or at least the point I'm trying to make) is that this starts mattering at the margins, ie. for somebody who has a very arguable case. I wasn't a sumo fan when any of those guys became yokozuna, but I never got the impression their dominance was really doubted. Takakeisho's is.

 

[Yamanashi 3,727]

53 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

It happens to all of them at some time, but I think the broader point (or at least the point I'm trying to make) is that this starts mattering at the margins, ie. for somebody who has a very arguable case. I wasn't a sumo fan when any of those guys became yokozuna, but I never got the impression their dominance was really doubted. Takakeisho's is.

 

I agree, and I agree with the shakiness of Takakeisho's potential 12-3 Y claim at this point.  I just don't think it will come down to who the three losses came from; I think it will come from having three losses against a pretty undistinguished field in general.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Meh. If Takakeisho comes back to win a 12-3 yusho here and (probably) doesn't get promoted, it won't be because of whom he lost to this time, it'll be because he lost the playoff to Abi last time. That's the kind of match that matters for an ozeki's tsuna bonafides (beyond the trivial fact that he missed out on the yusho because of it), not some random Day 2 loss to somebody like Tobizaru.

Edit: It's nearly impossible for a Y/O to win a yusho with a score of 12-3 and look strong doing it. But in the end it's still a yusho. That means the core issue is that the other basho in the "run" here also wasn't particularly strong, and ended on a highly disappointing (and one might even say, embarrassing) note. 12-3 Y + 12-3 Y, while historically weak, could be handwaved as "not dominant, but knows how to get it done", 12-3 D + 13-2 Y or better could have been spun as "came back stronger from last basho's disappointment, that's a yokozuna quality". 12-3 D with a playoff loss to a lower-ranker + 12-3 Y just looks like two sides of the same, relatively dull coin.

Edited January 20, 2023 by Asashosakari

[Godango 956]

20 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Meh. If Takakeisho comes back to win a 12-3 yusho here and (probably) doesn't get promoted, it won't be because of whom he lost to this time, it'll be because he lost the playoff to Abi last time. That's the kind of match that matters for an ozeki's tsuna bonafides (beyond the trivial fact that he missed out on the yusho because of it), not some random Day 2 loss to somebody like Tobizaru.

Agreed, this is definitely the biggest factor. If he were 12-Y or another Ozeki/Yokozuna had won the doten; it would be a different story entirely. 

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

Here are my promotion/demotion queues with different possible records. Feel free to correct me if my math is wrong.

 

Makuuchi -> Juryo

Okinoumi *

Chiyomaru 3-12

Chiyomaru 4-11

Tochinoshin 2-3-10

Ichinojo 0-0-15

Chiyomaru 5-10

Oho 1-14

Mitoryu 5-10

Tsurugisho 5-10

Chiyomaru 6-9

Oho 2-13

Mitoryu 6-9

Tsurugisho 6-9

Takarafuji 7-8

Oho 3-12

Juryo -> Makuuchi

Kinbozan 14-1

Kinbozan 13-2

Daishoho 13-2

Kinbozan 12-3

Bushozan 10-5

Hokuseiho 10-5

Tohakuryu 11-4

Daishoho 12-3

Kinbozan 11-4

Chiyonokuni 12-3

Bushozan 9-6

Hokuseiho 9-6

Tohakuryu 10-5

Daishoho 11-4

Asanoyama 14-1

Chiyonokuni 11-4

Bushozan 8-7

Hokuseiho 8-7

Tohakuryu 9-6

Enho 9-6

Daiamami 10-5

Asanoyama 13-2

Juryo -> Makushita

Okinoumi *

Kaisho 3-12

Kaisho 4-11

Chiyosakae 3-12

Takakento 4-11

Kaisho 5-10

Chiyosakae 4-11

Tsushimanada 6-9

Takakento 5-10

Terutsuyoshi 4-11

Kaisho 6-9

Chiyosakae 5-10

Tsushimanada 7-8

Takakento 6-9

Terutsuyoshi 5-10

Kitanowaka 4-11 

Makushita -> Juryo

Tokushoryu 5-2

Tamashoho 4-3

Tsukahara 6-1

Ochiai 7-0

Tomokaze 4-3

Tokushoryu 4-3

Tokihayate 6-1

Tochikamiyama 4-3

Tsukahara 5-2

Fujiseiun 5-2

Edited January 20, 2023 by Bunbukuchagama
Formatting

[Reonito 1,335]

Tokihayate would be behind everyone else on this list because he's ranked below Ms5

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

17 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Tokihayate would be behind everyone else on this list because he's ranked below Ms5

Is there a magical line between Ms5 and Ms6? 

[Churaumi 728]

4 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Is there a magical line between Ms5 and Ms6? 

Not officially but it's a very long shot to get promoted to juryo below that line.

[Reonito 1,335]

23 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Is there a magical line between Ms5 and Ms6? 

it's known as the "invisible line"

[Sue 483]

3 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Is there a magical line between Ms5 and Ms6? 

Ms1 to Ms5 is the promotion zone. Ms6 to Ms15 is the extended promotion zone; it normally takes a zensho to be promoted from there, unless there's a big excess of demoteable Juryo rikishi.

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

18 minutes ago, Sue said:

Ms1 to Ms5 is the promotion zone. Ms6 to Ms15 is the extended promotion zone; it normally takes a zensho to be promoted from there, unless there's a big excess of demoteable Juryo rikishi.

1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

Hatsu 2023 Day 13:

NEW!! Click for today's bouts results!!

Ochiai, 7-0 and kachikoshi at Makushita tsukedashi 15. Corporate Yokozuna. Just starting out. Makushita yusho and a probable promotion to Juryo after only one basho in sumo..

This should get interesting then

[Kaiomitsuki 408]

5 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Meh. If Takakeisho comes back to win a 12-3 yusho here and (probably) doesn't get promoted, it won't be because of whom he lost to this time, it'll be because he lost the playoff to Abi last time. That's the kind of match that matters for an ozeki's tsuna bonafides (beyond the trivial fact that he missed out on the yusho because of it), not some random Day 2 loss to somebody like Tobizaru.

Edit: It's nearly impossible for a Y/O to win a yusho with a score of 12-3 and look strong doing it. But in the end it's still a yusho. That means the core issue is that the other basho in the "run" here also wasn't particularly strong, and ended on a highly disappointing (and one might even say, embarrassing) note. 12-3 Y + 12-3 Y, while historically weak, could be handwaved as "not dominant, but knows how to get it done", 12-3 D + 13-2 Y or better could have been spun as "came back stronger from last basho's disappointment, that's a yokozuna quality". 12-3 D with a playoff loss to a lower-ranker + 12-3 Y just looks like two sides of the same, relatively dull coin.

Back in 2004 and 2006
Ozeki Kaio in July 2004, Yusho with a 13-2 record - September 2004 Jun-Yusho with a 12-3 record (2 wins against Yokozuna Asashoryu in the two bashos)
Ozeki Tochiazuma in January 2006, Yusho with a 14-1 record - March 2006 12-3 record (2 wins against Yokozuna Asashoryu in the two bashos*)

= No Tsuna (25 or 26 wins not enough...) 

We could also add Ozeki Chiyotaikai in 2002 (11-4 Jun-Yusho in May 2002 and Yusho with a 14-1 record in July 2002)

(* and two wins against Sekiwake Hakuho in the two Bashos.... but Hakuho was not Yokozuna in 2006 !)

[Seiyashi 4,071]

9 hours ago, Reonito said:

He is as safe (or unsafe) as Tochimusashi, no? I think both compute to J14w if they lose out, so they're probably safe unless there's very strong promotion pressure.

Yeah. I think I know the source of the error: doing this too late at night and misreading his J5w as J6w on the torikumi listing on the DB. Either way, his win today makes it academic.

Edited January 20, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,071]

1 hour ago, WAKATAKE said:

This should get interesting then

This alone isn't, yet. If we get 3x 4-3s in Ms1-3 then it will be, especially since most of the people in danger in jūryō seem to have gotten crucial wins today.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 13

Makuuchi
10-3: Ō1w Takakeishō, M8e Ōnoshō, M13e Kotoshōhō
9-4: K1e Kiribayama, M1w Daieishō, M14w Azumaryū
8-5: M2w Tamawashi, M5e Ryūden, M5w Nishikigi, M9w Endō, M10e Aoiyama, M14e Ichiyamamoto

Takakeishō put the "zeki" back in "ōzeki" today by beating Ōnoshō in impressive fashion. The two exchanged fierce tsuppari and harite before one of Takakeishō's rights disoriented Ōnoshō long enough for Takakeishō to get inside with both hands. A few more Tamawashi-like thrusts to the chest and throat, and Ōnoshō was out, despite his best efforts to rescue the bout with a tsukiotoshi.

Ōnoshō's loss means that there are now three co-leaders, as Kotoshōhō managed to beat Abi today as well. Kiribayama, Daieishō, and Azumaryū, all formerly of the hunt group, took advantage to close to one behind, while Tamawashi and Endō could not. They are joined by a motley crew of maegashira, and while all still technically in it, must hope for some horrendous howlers and a historically low yūshō scoreline even by jūryō standards never mind makuuchi.

Tomorrow, Takakeishō faces Hōshōryū - the H2H favours Takakeishō 6-2, and with a bum ankle, much of the fire seems to have gone out of Hōshōryū relative to earlier in the basho. I wouldn't be surprised if Hōshōryū resorted to a henka tomorrow to save his rank, and I hope Takakeishō's on guard for one too. Ōnoshō and Kotoshōhō get chasers Kiribayama and Daieishō respectively; Kiribayama being the best-performing sanyaku is now deputed to stop Ōnoshō, while Daieishō has making an emphatic case for sanyaku promotion to incentivise him against Kotoshōhō. Azumaryū, having the best makuuchi basho of his life, faces hunter Ichiyamamoto.

The remainder of the hunters get a mixed bag of opponents - Tamawashi has 7-6 Wakamotoharu fighting for his komusubi rank, Ryūden gets MK Chiyoshōma, Nishikigi fights fellow hunter Aoiyama, while Endō gets KK-seeking Abi.

With regular programming back on, it's likely Takakeishō's day 15 opponent will be the next highest ranked on the banzuke, Wakatakakage. Kotoshōhō might get Kiribayama, especially with a win, while the man with the best rank-record left to stop Ōnoshō is perhaps Daieishō.

Jūryō
12-1: J12w Asanoyama
11-2: J5e Kinbōzan
10-3: J6w Daishōhō, J7e Chiyonokuni, J13e Shōnannoumi

Kinbōzan will be rueing overzealousness against Asanoyama today. He had the ex-ōzeki with his back to the bales, then rushed to finish the job, but was dodged and thrust down a fraction before Asanoyama stepped out. The mono-ii confirmed that Kinbōzan's hands touched down first, so even just a second more of being less unbalanced might have seen the bout go another way. Either way, Asanoyama has gotten through one of his more dangerous bouts, and gets within 2 wins of a 14-1 yūshō and a potential return to makuuchi. Kinbōzan falls to one behind again, but Daishōhō lost to Shōnannoumi to fail to join him. Chiyonokuni beat already KK Hakuyōzan to keep pace two behind. 

Tomorrow, Asanoyama takes on the only member of the arasoi he hasn't already fought: Chiyonokuni. Asanoyama has taken both their prior encounters in makuuchi in 2018 (one of them being in Natsu, when Asanoyama won the yūshō), so Asanoyama must be considered the favourite here. Kinbōzan visits makuuchi to fight endangered Tsurugishō in what looks like an exchange bout, while Daishōhō and Shōnannoumi have KK Tōhakuryū and KK-seeking Enhō respectively. 

Lower divisions
Makushita: Ms15TD Ochiai Y
Sandanme: Sd74w Kaizen Y
Jonidan: Jd11e Takerufuji Y
Jonokuchi: 6-1 Jk11e Kazenoumi, Jk11w Kotosato, Jk12w Okano (playoff on senshūraku)

It probably surprises no one that Ochiai takes the makushita yūshō by inflicting yet another 6-1 record on Kazekenō, being the first MsTD to do so since ill-fated Shimoda in 2006. Whether that translates into promotion depends on how the rest of the jūryō/makushita exchange picture shakes out; there are a bunch of potentially promotable records in upper makushita that could result in Ochiai being shafted. Nonetheless, he's shown more than a hint of greater things and his wearing silk is a question only of when not if. Today's bout was a case in point: Kazekenō is no pushover, yet after a bit of yotsu dancing, Ochiai expertly timed a small lapse in attention to slap and push Kazekenō on the back while moving back and right. The initial hatakikomi was loud enough to be heard, then the follow through sent Kazekenō tumbling right off the dohyō.

In sandanme, sandanme journeyman Kaizen marks a return from injury to his usual stomping grounds with a career best 7-0. He got as high as a KK at Ms55w before seemingly becoming hit by injury, sitting out 3 basho in the middle of last year. Here's hoping this yūshō is a sign of better things to come.

Last basho's jonokuchi winner Takerufuji won in jonidan to start his ōzumo career with a 14-0 record. No doubt Ack and co will be tracking this young man for some time to come.

Down in jonokuchi, the yūshō has not yet been determined, as sole 6-0 Okano lost today to Kazenoumi. This puts both of them level with Kotosato, necessitating a playoff to determine the yūshō winner on senshūraku.

Edited January 20, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 13

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku <-> joi

X	0-0-13	Terunofuji	YO
			O	Takakeishō	10-3	O
1	7-6	Wakatakakage	S	Hōshōryū	7-6	1
X	1-5-7	Takayasu	S	Shōdai	6-7	2
O	9-4	Kiribayama	K	Kotonowaka	6-7	2
X	4-9	Meisei	K	Wakamotoharu	7-6	1
2	6-7	Tobizaru	M1	Daieishō	9-4	O
			M2	Tamawashi	8-5	1
2	7-6	Abi	M3	Midorifuji	6-7	X
			M4
2	8-5	Ryūden	M5	Nishikigi	8-5	2

Demotion queue: Takayasu, Meisei, Kotonowaka, Shōdai
Promotion queue: Daieishō, Tamawashi, Tobizaru, Abi

Wakatakakage today saved his sanyaku rank by beating fellow beleaguered sekiwake, Hōshōryū. Both of them will be komusubi minimum next basho, although they each need one win more to save sekiwake. Wakatakakage fights Shōdai, while Hōshōryū takes on Takakeishō; it's likely they then swap opponents for senshūraku. Takakeishō has the yūshō at stake while Shōdai would like to remain sekiwake (apparently more so than ōzeki), so neither match is going to be easy. If Wakatakakage and Hōshōryū secure their ranks at Shōdai's expense, then that would be the two sekiwake ranks spoken for.

Kiribayama though might yet be able to force a third sekiwake slot even in that event. He's still on 4 losses and can win out for 11 wins, in which case he won't need two of the three existing sekiwake to collapse. As for his fellow komusubi, Meisei cements his departure with yet another loss, Kotonowaka needs to win out, and Wakamotoharu needs one more win. 

Seeking to replace them are Daieishō, who's gone minimally 9-6 if not better at M1w, and has been called on to fight co-leader Kotoshōhō tomorrow. It's likely Daieishō will also have to help deal with Ōnoshō, being the highest ranked sanyaku/joi member that is fighting well. Tamawashi failed to make his case by the numbers and will have to try again tomorrow, but he probably needs to win out to even be part of the sanyaku conversation given how crowded the komusubi rank might be (again) next basho. Seeing as everyone else needs to win out, and they have records that wouldn't really be considered shafted if they weren't promoted, it's probably safe to say that only Daieishō and Tamawashi are worth considering for repromotion this time round.

Makuuchi <-> jūryō

X	0-0-13	Ichinojō	M7
			M8	Ōhō	2-11	2
			...
			M11	Tochinoshin	2-3-8	X
			M12	Okinoumi	0-6	X
			...
1	6-7	Tsurugishō	M15	Mitoryū	5-8	2
1	7-6	Takarafuji	M16	Chiyomaru	3-10	X
			J1	Bushōzan	7-6	1
1	8-5	Hokuseihō	J2
			J3
2	8-5	Tōhakuryū	J4
O	11-2	Kinbōzan	J5
			J6	Daishōhō	10-3	1

Demotion queue: Okinoumi*, Ichinojō, Chiyomaru, Tochinoshin
Promotion queue: Kinbōzan, Bushōzan, Hokuseihō, Daishōhō

It's probably safe to say Tochinoshin won't be coming back to save his makuuchi rank, which makes 4 slots opening minimum. That's good news for Kinbōzan, who despite his loss today, cannot now be displaced from top four in the promotion queue, and has a chance to really make his case by beating Tsurugishō in an exchange bout tomorrow. It's probably also good news for the rest of the promotion candidates here other than Bushōzan, who needs his KK to be promotable.

But that's not all. Four more rikishi are still in trouble. Ōhō and Mitoryū need to win out to avoid demotion, while Tsurugishō and Takarafuji need one more win each. This could mean up to four more slots opening up in makuuchi if they all lose, especially since they don't have any bouts between themselves tomorrow to soften the blow for at least one of them. Worse still, Tsurugishō is matched against Kinbōzan, so losing that bout could spell trouble especially if he doesn't go on to win his last bout to keep his MK to a bare minimum.

If all goes badly for the makuuchi incumbents and well for the jūryō joi, we could see a new record set for jūryō -> makuuchi promotions in unexceptional times (the all time record of 9 was a result of the suspensions for the gambling scandal). The modern record for unexceptional promotions is 7: most recently due to 6 demotions and a retirement (Kotoōshū's) in 2014. If that eventuality comes to pass, that's good news for not just Asanoyama, who might be promoted even with a 13-2, but also possibly an 8-7/9-6 Enhō, whose win against Mitoryū in makuuchi today might just weigh in his favour when it comes to considering repromotions.

Jūryō <-> makushita

			J8	Kitanowaka	5-8	O
			J9
			J10	Terutsuyoshi	4-9	2
2	4-9	Chiyosakae	J11
2	5-8	Takakentō	J12
			J13	Kaishō	3-10	X
1	7-6	Tsushimanada	J14
1	3-3	Tamashōhō	Ms1
1	3-3	Tomokaze	Ms2	Tokushōryū	4-2	O
			Ms3	Tochikamiyama	3-3	~
			Ms4
1	5-1	Tsukahara	Ms5	Fujiseiun	4-2	~
			Ms6	Tokihayate	5-1	~
			...
O~	7-0	Ochiai	Ms15TD

Demotion queue: Okinoumi*, Kaishō, Takakentō, Chiyosakae
Promotion queue: Tokushōryū, Ochiai, Tamashōhō, Tomokaze

Promotion slots are a lot scarcer down here, though. All endangered rikishi in this area other than Terutsuyoshi won today to keep alive their hopes of remaining in jūryō, and they have relatively "soft" matches too. Tsushimanada fights already MK but safe Kitanowaka, Chiyosakae has 8-5 Rōga who's out of contention for the yūshō, Takakentō has also MK but also safe Kōtokuzan, and Terutsuyoshi has MK binbogami Akua. That makes it possibly easy wins for all of them.

That's bad news for Ochiai, who despite an emphatic 7-0 Y, potentially has up to 6 rivals for any promotion slots that open, and who at Ms15TD has the lowest possible rank for consideration for promotion with a zenshō. Tamashōhō with a win would have to go up first, for instance. None of the possible promotion candidates are fighting tomorrow, so this conundrum will have to wait till Day 15 to be resolved (perhaps with a sprinking of exchange bouts).

Edited January 20, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

Updated queues.

 

Makuuchi -> Juryo

Okinoumi *

Chiyomaru 3-12

Chiyomaru 4-11

Tochinoshin 2-3-10

Ichinojo 0-0-15

Chiyomaru 5-10

Oho 1-14

Mitoryu 5-10

Tsurugisho 5-10

Chiyomaru 6-9

Oho 2-13

Mitoryu 6-9

Tsurugisho 6-9

Takarafuji 7-8

Oho 3-12

Juryo -> Makuuchi

Kinbozan 14-1

Kinbozan 13-2

Daishoho 13-2

Kinbozan 12-3

Bushozan 10-5

Hokuseiho 10-5

Tohakuryu 11-4

Daishoho 12-3

Kinbozan 11-4

Chiyonokuni 12-3

Bushozan 9-6

Hokuseiho 9-6

Tohakuryu 10-5

Daishoho 11-4

Asanoyama 14-1

Chiyonokuni 11-4

Bushozan 8-7

Hokuseiho 8-7

Tohakuryu 9-6

Enho 9-6

Daishoho 10-5

Asanoyama 13-2

Juryo -> Makushita

Okinoumi *

Kaisho 3-12

Kaisho 4-11

Chiyosakae 3-12

Takakento 4-11

Kaisho 5-10

Chiyosakae 4-11

Tsushimanada 6-9

Takakento 5-10

Terutsuyoshi 4-11

Kaisho 6-9

Chiyosakae 5-10

Tsushimanada 7-8

Takakento 6-9

Terutsuyoshi 5-10

Kitanowaka 4-11 

Makushita -> Juryo

Tokushoryu 5-2

Tamashoho 4-3

Tsukahara 6-1

Ochiai 7-0

Tomokaze 4-3

Tokushoryu 4-3

Tokihayate 6-1

Tochikamiyama 4-3

Tsukahara 5-2

Fujiseiun 5-2

Edited January 20, 2023 by Bunbukuchagama
Corrected

[Reonito 1,335]

9 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

This alone isn't, yet. If we get 3x 4-3s in Ms1-3 then it will be, especially since most of the people in danger in jūryō seem to have gotten crucial wins today.

Nothing against Tamashoho, Tokushoryu, and Tomokaze, but I'd so much rather see Ochiai fighting in juryo and will be hoping for the results to go accordingly.

[Gurowake 3,923]

I'd like to think that they would schedule Takakeisho against Kotoshoho on senshuraku to ensure at this point a 11 win Yusho line, but that's merely my vantage point from having to come up with a torikumi set without seeing the Day 14 results, which they'll undoubtedly be considering when making the last set of torikumi as they have been recently.  However, regardless of Day 14, both of them will still be in the Yusho race, though a Takakeisho win and Kotoshoho loss means the latter would only be able to win after defeating the former in a playoff, which might be enough to dissuade them from doing that honwari match.  While Kotoshoho definitely is quite low on the banzuke to face an Ozeki, I don't think they would want to ever give him the chance to win the yusho without facing Takakeisho, which would be possible if the skipped his match only in the scenario I gave.  However, it's quite reasonable to think that that's the most likely scenario.

[Reonito 1,335]

6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Kiribayama, Daieishō, and Azumaryū, all formerly of the hunt group, took advantage to close to one behind

Azumaryu in the makuuchi arasoi after 13 days is the sort of thing that would normally belong in the ridiculous predictions thread!

[Gurowake 3,923]

I don't think Tomokaze is in a position to take a spot from Shimoda, I mean, Ochiai, and Tokushoryu needs to win his last match to make a better case as well in my mind, and that might even not be strong enough.  I also doubt that Tsukahara will be able to prevent Ochiai's promotion because there's so much room to promote him.  But that's all purely conjecture as we obviously don't have any precedents. 

[Reonito 1,335]

6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Kinbōzan visits makuuchi to fight endangered Tsurugishō in what looks like an exchange bout

Kinbozan will almost certainly be up regardless (no 11-4 from J5 has missed with modern division sizes), and Tsurugisho can survive even with one more loss, so not really an exchange bout

[Reonito 1,335]

5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

If all goes badly for the makuuchi incumbents and well for the jūryō joi, we could see a new record set for jūryō -> makuuchi promotions

I think in that scenario, Oho and Takarafuji are likely to survive with one and zero additional wins

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

6 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I don't think Tomokaze is in a position to take a spot from Shimoda, I mean, Ochiai, and Tokushoryu needs to win his last match to make a better case as well in my mind, and that might even not be strong enough.  I also doubt that Tsukahara will be able to prevent Ochiai's promotion because there's so much room to promote him.  But that's all purely conjecture as we obviously don't have any precedents. 

In case only 2 slots become available, wouldn't Tamashoho and Tokushoryu (with a win) have adavantage over Ochiai?

[Reonito 1,335]

Just now, Bunbukuchagama said:

In case only 2 slots become available, wouldn't Tamashoho and Tokushoryu (with a win) have adavantage over Ochiai?

I think they'll send them and Tomokaze up to juryo on day 15 to fight the incumbents who still need a win (and there will be at least 3, even if Tsushimanada, Terutsuyoshi, Takakento, and Chiyosakae all win tomorrow), so either they win to open more slots, or they lose to (probably) fall behind Ochiai (or, in the case of Tamashoho and Tomokaze, out of the promotion queue entirely).