Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

[Seiyashi 4,068]

6 hours ago, Kashunowaka said:

Thank you so much for doing this @Seiyashi, I really appreciate these posts. 

Shouldn't Daieisho's target result be 8-7 rather than 9-6, by the numbers? I know that there is banzuke unluck and all that, but for the sake of consistency.

Yeah, you're probably right. I put it as 9-6 because M1w being shafted with 8-7 is pretty common, but it's an unjustified screwing around with pure numbers disregarding banzuke luck. I'll fix it in the writeup for today.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 11

Makuuchi
9-2: Ō1w Takakeishō, M8e Ōnoshō
8-3: M2w Tamawashi, M13e Kotoshōhō
7-4: S1e Hōshōryū, K1e Kiribayama, M1w Daieishō, M5w Nishikigi, M9w Endō, M10w Hiradoumi, M14e Ichiyamamoto, M14w Azumaryū, M16e Takarafuji

Just when he was looking unstoppable, Takakeishō lost quite unexpectedly to Kotonowaka today. The ōzeki had his main oshi attack repeatedly blunted by Kotonowaka's longer reach employed in nodowas, and by the time he tried his newfound kotenage, the younger rikishi had him over the bales. That's a surprising reversal for Kotonowaka, who was pretty much Takakeishō's whipping boy for a few basho thanks to a perceived slight in Osaka.

Takakeishō's loss means that a whole lot of rikishi have taken advantage to climb up, or back into, the arasoi. The main beneficiary is Ōnoshō, who despite being caught in yotsu from the off by Kotoshōhō, managed to pull out a sukuinage to draw level with Takakeishō. Tamawashi also climbs back to one behind after a textbook display of oshi into nodowa against Nishikigi. Making reappearances are everyone else in the 7-2 bracket who won, including Hōshōryū with a measured but sure yotsu win (bonus points for a kakenage dodge with his injured foot) against Nishikifuji, Kiribayama with a beautiful tottari + kakenage combination against Wakatakakage, and Daieishō, who wriggled like hell to produce a desperation tsukiotoshi against Wakamotoharu despite also being caught in yotsu for most of his bout.

With so many members of the arasoi, it's almost inevitable that there will be more bouts between them moving forward. Takakeishō has Kiribayama while Ōnoshō has Tamawashi. Kotoshōhō fights Nishikigi, whereas Endō has Ichiyamamoto and Hiradoumi takes on Azumaryū. The rikishi who have aites not in the arasoi are Hōshōryū, who fights Ryūden, Daieishō, who fights Mitakeumi, and Takarafuji, who fights Kagayaki. Depending on how matters go, we might have up to 4 leaders tomorrow, or as few as 1. Takakeishō needs to win to thin out the chaser crowd, while yet another loss will theoretically let in a whole further bunch of rikishi currently led by 6-5 K2w Wakamotoharu.

Jūryō
10-1: J5e Kinbōzan, J12w Asanoyama
9-2: J6w Daishōhō, J13e Shōnannoumi
8-3: J7e Chiyonokuni, J9e Rōga

As above, so below. Asanoyama lost a yotsu battle to Daishōhō today, quite uncharacteristically being contained almost every step of the way. That allowed Kinbōzan to draw level with a fast nodowa-based oshi pushout of Tōhakuryū. Shōnannoumi had a patient win over Kitanowaka to climb to one behind alongside Daishōhō, while Chiyonokuni makes a surprise late appearance in the arasoi next to Rōga with an overwhelming oshi performance against Hokuseihō.

Tomorrow, Shōnannoumi gets his crack at Asanoyama, while Rōga takes on Kinbōzan. Daishōhō fights Bushōzan and Chiyonokuni has Ōshōma. Again, we could have anywhere between 1-4 leaders by the time the dust settles tomorrow. Asanoyama has yet to take on Chiyonokuni or Kinbōzan, so they're prospective opponents for two of the three days remaining, which means Kinbōzan could have the opportunity to seal his likely makuuchi debut with a win himself.

Lower divisions

Makushita: Ms15TD Ochiai (Miyagino), Ms40w Kazekenō (Oshiogawa)
Sandanme: Sd13e Wakanoshō (Tokiwayama), Sd74w Kaizen (Asakayama)
Jonidan: Jd11e Takerufuji (Isegahama), Jd40w Daiseizan (Arashio), Jd73e Ikazuchidō (Irumagawa)
Jonokuchi: 6-0 Jk12w Okano (Takekuma), 5-1 Jk11e Kazenoumi (Oshiogawa), 4-1 Jk7w Nishikinoryū (Asahiyama), Jk11w Kotosatō (Sadogatake)

There just seems to be no stopping Ochiai, who's handling his opponents with a degree of calmness and overwhelming skill that suggests he really should be fighting two divisions higher. As expected, hotshot Kazekenō of the eternal 6-1 record is the last man standing between Ochiai and a likely jūryō debut, but if he is truly of the eternal 6-1 record then he's not going to be doing much standing in the way...

Sandanme straightened itself out by losing three out of five from the arasoi, meaning the yūshō will be decided in a straightforward head to head between Wakanoshō and Kaizen. That's not the case for jonidan, which has 3 6-0 members remaining and may require a playoff to sort things out. Jonokuchi also has some bouts left to go, so it's not clear how many of the 4-1s will survive till the last round.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 11

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku <-> joi

X	0-0-11	Terunofuji	YO
			O	Takakeishō	9-2	O
3	5-6	Wakatakakage	S	Hōshōryū	7-4	1
X	1-5-5	Takayasu	S	Shōdai	5-6	3
1	7-4	Kiribayama	K	Kotonowaka	5-6	3
4	4-7	Meisei	K	Wakamotoharu	6-5	2
4	4-7	Tobizaru	M1	Daieishō	7-4	1
4	5-6	Mitakeumi	M2	Tamawashi	8-3	1
3	6-5	Abi	M3	Midorifuji	5-6	4
			M4
4	6-5	Ryūden	M5	Nishikigi	7-4	3
X	6-5	Hokutofuji	M6

Demotion queue: Takayasu, Meisei, Kotonowaka, Shōdai
Promotion queue: Daieishō, Tamawashi, Abi, Nishikigi

Not many moves in the queues today. Meisei, Kotonowaka, and Shōdai all won today; Meisei needs to win out to keep rank while Kotonowaka and Shōdai can afford to drop 1 and 2 respectively to remain in sanyaku. Daieishō and Tamawashi opened up some space between themselves and Abi and Nishikigi by winning where the latter two did not; one more win each puts them back in sanyaku by the numbers next basho. 

With Wakatakakage doing no better than 28 over 3, his ōzeki run is effectively over, and his 11-4 junyūshō falls out of the window. He'll have to restart from scratch. As for Hōshōryū, with no better than 31 over 3 and in all likelihood being out of yūshō contention, he's probably not going to make ōzeki this basho either. That said, with 11-4 being his last result and still being in a good enough position to try for double digits, he could yet seal his promotion with a good performance in Haru. 

Takakeishō's yūshō and yokozuna bids took a serious hammering today after losing to Kotonowaka. The yūshō isn't necessarily yet a problem, but he's limited to 25 wins over 2 basho, which @Godango and @Reonito have pointed out is a pretty soft promotion in the post-Futahaguro era. He's not yet a goner especially if he manages to win out in dominating deashi fashion, but his case is going to be a lot less certain than it was if he had managed to go 14-1.

As for lower sanyaku members next basho, Hōshōryū secured his sanyaku rank for next basho with a patient if slightly tentative (at least relative to the fire he showed this basho) win over now-MK Nishikifuji, while Wakatakakage is in real danger after a loss to Kiribayama, who himself is within one more win of securing his own sanyaku rank. Despite an absolutely shambolic start from the perspective of saving his ōzeki rank, somehow Shōdai might still be able to stay in sanyaku with 2 more wins from 4. It's also early enough that Kiribayama still might go 11-4, which would classically force a sekiwake slot from komusubi, meaning we might have anywhere between 2-4 sekiwake next basho. As for komusubi, Daieishō and Tamawashi look to be good chances to post a strong enough record to force haridashi komusubi slots again, regardless of what the incumbents do. The joi picture isn't yet so obviously a car crash like last basho's was, but we have enough days to go that it might still turn out to be one.

Makuuchi <-> jūryō

X	0-0-11	Ichinojō	M7
			M8	Ōhō	1-10	3
O	5-6	Takanoshō	M9
			M10
O	5-6	Chiyoshōma	M11	Tochinoshin	2-3-6	3
O	6-5	Kagayaki	M12	Okinoumi	0-6-5	X
			M13	Kotoekō	6-5	O
O	7-4	Ichiyamamoto	M14
3	4-7	Tsurugishō	M15	Mitoryū	4-7	3
1	7-4	Takarafuji	M16	Chiyomaru	3-8	~
			J1	Bushōzan	7-4	1
3	6-5	Hokuseihō	J2
			J3	Ōshōma	5-6	4
3	7-4	Tōhakuryū	J4	Enhō	6-5	4
O	10-1	Kinbōzan	J5
			J6	Daishōhō	9-2	2

Demotion queue: Okinoumi*, Ichinojō, Chiyomaru, Mitoryū
Promotion queue: Kinbōzan, Bushōzan, Daishōhō, Hokuseihō

A lot of makuuchi incumbents in the demotion zone removed themselves from danger today. All five rikishi who needed one win from yesterday's Promotion/Demotion review got that win today, becoming undemotable by the numbers. In addition to them, Takarafuji and Mitoryū also picked up crucial wins to be a little safer, although Mitoryū is still next in the firing line for now at least until Tochinoshin's non-return tanks his record harder.

Down in jūryō, Kinbōzan's win made him promotable by the numbers, and with at least two slots opening in makuuchi and fairly little competition from his fellow jūryō joi jin for now, looks to be making his makuuchi debut next basho. Just behind him is Bushōzan, who moved within one win of a KK and a likely promotion. Hokuseihō, Tōhakuryū, and Ōshōma all failed to make any progress today, allowing Daishōhō, with his defeat of jūryō arasoi leader Asanoyama, to leapfrog them in the promotion queue for a likely third spot opened up by Tochinoshin. And speaking of Asanoyama, he too failed to make progress, and with one loss, needs to win out to even have a hope of promotion behind a lot of other stronger promotion cases for now.

Jūryō <-> makushita

			J7	Tochimusashi	3-8	1
O	5-6	Shimanoumi	J8	Kitanowaka	4-7	1
			J9	Hidenoumi	5-6	O
			J10	Terutsuyoshi	3-8	3
3	3-8	Chiyosakae	J11
3	4-7	Takakentō	J12
			J13	Kaishō	3-8	4
3	5-6	Tsushimanada	J14	Hakuyōzan	7-4	1
1	3-3	Tamashōhō	Ms1	Ishizaki	2-4	X
1	3-3	Tomokaze	Ms2	Tokushōryū	4-2	O
			Ms3	Tochikamiyama	3-3	~
1	5-1	Tsukahara	Ms5	Fujiseiun	4-2	~
			Ms6	Tokihayate	4-1	~
X	4-2	Kawazoe	Ms7	Chiyonoumi	3-3	X
			...
1	6-0	Ochiai	Ms15TD

Demotion queue: Okinoumi*, Kaishō, Tsushimanada, Takakentō
Promotion queue: Tokushōryū, Tamashōshō, Tomokaze, Ochiai

Shimanoumi (fusen against Atamifuji down with the flu) and Hidenoumi (okuridashi against Takakentō, then dameoshi *boooooo*) both won today to remove themselves from danger. But the same can't be said of a lot of their companions in danger. Only Tsushimanada and Hakuyōzan won, and even with that win, Tsushimanada is still looking in a lot of trouble with needing 3 wins from 4. Chiyosakae, Takakentō, and Terutsuyoshi are in the same boat, while Kaishō is now the frontrunner for demotion with needing to win out after his loss to Terutsuyoshi today. 

As for promotion, Tokushōryū was the first to clock his KK in the makushita joi-jin, making his return likely bar some spectacularly bad luck and adverse results. Too bad he can't do so in style with the one yūshō he's missing. His KK puts him ahead of Tamashōhō, who's now in danger of falling short just before the pearly gates of sekitoridom, while fellow Ms1 Ishizaki went MK today to remove himself off the promotion queue. Tomokaze beat said Ishizaki to give himself a fighting chance at KK and possible repromotion, while last in the queue is Ochiai, whose zenshō possibility jumps him ahead of all other rikishi requiring one more win. With the number of endangered rikishi in jūryō and Okinoumi's retirement, he would have to be Shimoda levels of unlucky to not be promoted if he triumphs over Kazekenō on day 13. If he does get promoted, he leapfrogs his fellow Miyagino makushita Kawazoe and Mukainakano, who have both secured their KKs at 4-2 but are making much slower progress up the banzuke.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 1,304]

6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

As for promotion, Tokushōryū was the first to clock his KK in the makushita joi-jin, making his return likely bar some spectacularly bad luck and adverse results. Too bad he can't do so in style with the one yūshō he's missing. His KK puts him ahead of Tamashōhō, who's now in danger of falling short just before the pearly gates of sekitoridom, while fellow Ms1 Ishizaki went MK today to remove himself off the promotion queue. Tomokaze beat said Ishizaki to give himself a fighting chance at KK and possible repromotion, while last in the queue is Ochiai, whose zenshō possibility jumps him ahead of all other rikishi requiring one more win.

I have Tamashoho with a win first in the queue, followed by Tokushoryu with a win. I am not sure how to order Ochiai with a win and Tsukahara with a win relative to each other, or where to slot them in relative to Tomokaze with a win and Tokushoryu with a loss.

[Reonito 1,304]

6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Takakeishō's limited to 25 wins over 2 basho, which @Godango and @Reonito have pointed out is a pretty soft promotion in the post-Futahaguro era.

The softest.

[Sumo Spiffy 523]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

The softest.

I don't know if win quality ever factors into yokozuna debates as a marginal argument, but it can't help that his losses were to one guy who's struggled badly since and another who went into a day 11 matchup with a losing record.

[Reonito 1,304]

2 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I don't know if win quality ever factors into yokozuna debates as a marginal argument, but it can't help that his losses were to one guy who's struggled badly since and another who went into a day 11 matchup with a losing record.

When Takakeisho was initially denied promotion to ozeki despite reaching 33 wins, a key factor cited was the dominant manner of Goeido's victory in their final bout.

[Godango 956]

Posting here what I posted in the Hatsu 2023 discussion thread:

I think Takakeisho's losses can be explained away as acceptable should he win the basho. He lost to a komusubi, and an M1e who was komusubi last tournament. That's not earth shattering stuff even in a Yokozuna basho. In fact, looking at the six-basho era:

Yokozuna v. Komusubi
1435 bouts (excluding fusen)
Komusubi Wins: 255
Yokozuna Wins: 1180

Ergo, Komusubi beat Yokozuna roughly 1 in 6 bouts.

Yokozuna v. Maegashira #1
1408 bouts (excluding fusen)
Maegashira #1 Wins: 249
Yokozuna Wins: 1159

Likewise Maegashira #1 beat Yokozuna roughly 1 in 6 bouts.

Not terrible, from a pure results perspective if Takakeisho goes on to yusho, especially 13-2, I can see these not being held against him. We're talking about 1 kinboshi. For context:

 

Yokozuna	Basho Entered	Kinboshi	Kinboshi/Basho
Terunofuji	7	12	1.71
Kisenosato	8	18	2.25
Kakuryu	30	33	1.1
Harumafuji	29	41	1.41
Hakuho	74	26	0.35
Asashoryu	39	26	0.67
Musashimaru	22	26	1.18
Wakanohana III	8	18	2.25
Takanohana	38	39	1.03
Akebono	39	35	0.9
Asahifuji	8	12	1.5
Onokuni	17	20	1.18
Hokutoumi	24	21	0.88
Futahaguro	9	8	0.89
Takanosato	13	11	0.85
Chiyonofuji	53	29	0.55
Mienoumi	7	10	1.43
Wahanohana II	25	27	1.08
Kitanoumi	59	53	0.9
Wajima	46	39	0.85

I'd have kept going but the db started disliking me at this point.

At any rate, average of 1.15 kinboshi per basho; median of 1.05. Takakeisho's losses so far really shouldn't factor into anything. How he finishes the next 4 days will be all that matters IMO.

That said, a 'reasonable' objection to Takakeisho so far is that he hasn't had the extended run of dominance we've seen in the prior two comparable runs. He's achieved, yes, with his two yusho and several doten/jun-yusho -- but not at the same strike rate as others. I personally don't see why that matters though if he takes the yusho here; it's quite literally two yusho/equivalent if he pulls it off. But we know how the powers that be can think.

[Sumo Spiffy 523]

I don't think the issue with Takakeisho's losses is the rank of the opponents—everyone he fights is going to be sanyaku, high maegashira, or a yusho contender—but the fact these particular opponents aren't exactly kicking ass. The transitive property isn't a real thing, but it still doesn't look good when you're a borderline candidate and your losses are to guys who are being swatted by half or two-thirds of their other competition. As @Reonito said, Keisho's first ozeki run was denied because of one big loss to Goeido, who was a more serious threat to anyone than Tobizaru or Kotonowaka, and I also wouldn't be shocked if they don't think a relatively "normal" yusho isn't enough in this case when he gets it with the one major player in the game on the sidelines. Considering Teru is supposed to be out for March, it wouldn't be the least bit surprising if they see a 13-2 yusho and tell him to do it again for a rope.

[Godango 956]

For what it's worth, I also wouldn't be surprised by that. I'm basically ready for anything.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

9 hours ago, Reonito said:

15 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

As for promotion, Tokushōryū was the first to clock his KK in the makushita joi-jin, making his return likely bar some spectacularly bad luck and adverse results. Too bad he can't do so in style with the one yūshō he's missing. His KK puts him ahead of Tamashōhō, who's now in danger of falling short just before the pearly gates of sekitoridom, while fellow Ms1 Ishizaki went MK today to remove himself off the promotion queue. Tomokaze beat said Ishizaki to give himself a fighting chance at KK and possible repromotion, while last in the queue is Ochiai, whose zenshō possibility jumps him ahead of all other rikishi requiring one more win.

I have Tamashoho with a win first in the queue, followed by Tokushoryu with a win. I am not sure how to order Ochiai with a win and Tsukahara with a win relative to each other, or where to slot them in relative to Tomokaze with a win and Tokushoryu with a loss.

Agreed - I should have said Tokushōryū goes ahead of Tamashōhō only for now, since the latter still has a chance to score his KK.

As for the zenshō promotion relative to the invisible line, I dug out the cases of zenshō promotion from Ms10-15 since 2000:

Basho	Rikishi	Rank change	D/P	RR	LSRP	HSRNP	LSRND	HSRD
2003.03	Nakao	Ms11e -> J11w	6/6	3	5-2 Tanaka, Ms5w -> J13w	4-3 Masutsuyoshi, Ms4e -> Ms1w	4-11 Gokenzan, J6e -> J12w	5-10 Kitazakura, J10e -> Ms1e
2006.05	Shimoda	Ms15TD -> Ms1w	2/2	NA	4-3 Ryūō, Ms1w -> J14w	5-2 Kageyama, Ms3w -> Ms1e	5-10 Takanowaka, J8e -> J14e	6-9 Senshūyama, J12w -> Ms2w
2008.05	Tamaasuka	Ms12w -> J13e	3/3	1	4-3 Tosayutaka, Ms1w -> J14w	4-3 Yamamotoyama, Ms2e -> Ms1w	7-8 Sagatsukasa, J12w -> J13w	6-9 Asōfuji, J13w -> Ms2w
2008.09	Yotsuguruma	Ms13w -> J8w	2/6	3	4-3 Mori, Ms4w -> J14w	4-3 Katayama, Ms5w -> Ms2e	6-4-5 Ichihara, J10w -> J14e	7-8 Asōfuji, J14e -> Ms1e
2008.11	Kotokuni	Ms10e -> J14w	2/2	2	7-0 Kotokuni, Ms10e -> J14w	5-2 Fukuoka, Ms1w -> Ms1e	7-8 Hakuba, J12w -> J14e	5-10 Sagatsukasa, J12e -> Ms2w
2009.09	Gagamaru	Ms10e -> J14e	2/2	1	4-3 Kotoyutaka, Ms1e -> J14w	5-2 Miyamoto, Ms2w -> Ms1w	7-8 Hoshikaze, J12e -> J13w	6-9 Tokushinhō, J12w -> Ms2w
2010.07	Jūmonji	Ms12e -> J7e	6/7	1	6-1 Ryūhō, Ms11w -> J14e	4-3 Yoshiazuma, Ms6w -> Ms1e	5-7-3 Yamamotoyama, J10e -> J13w	0-0-15 Daidō, J2w -> Ms1w
2010.09	Takayasu	Ms13w -> J11e	5/6	1	4-3 Tsurugidake, Ms3w -> J13w	4-3 Kiyoseumi, Ms4w -> Ms1e	7-8 Ryūhō, J14e -> J14w	5-10 Sagatsukasa, J10w -> Ms1w
2011.09	Asahishō	Ms12w -> J13e	4/4	3	5-2 Ikioi, Ms3e -> J14e	4-3 Tokushinhō, Ms2e -> Ms1e	6-9 Chiyozakura, J11e -> J14w	2-7-6 Kaōnishiki, J9w -> Ms4w
2012.09	Ryūden	Ms12e -> J12w	4/5	2	4-3 Masakaze, Ms2w -> J14w	4-3 Masuraumi, Ms3e -> Ms1e	7-8 Tokushinhō, J12w -> J13w	5-10 Arawashi, J14e -> Ms2w
2015.03	Dewahayate	Ms13e -> J12e	4/4	1	5-2 Wakanoshima, Ms3e -> J14e	4-3 Tokushinhō, Ms2e -> Ms1w	6-9 Tosayutaka, J11e -> J14w	5-10 Masunoyama, J10e -> Ms1e
2015.05	Takagi	Ms10e -> J13w	3/3	2	4-3 Tokushinhō, Ms1w -> J14w	4-3 Shōdai, Ms2w -> Ms1e	6-9 Akiseyama, J11w -> J14e	7-8 Tosayutaka, J14w -> Ms1w
2017.07	Yago	Ms11e -> J13w	4/4	2	4-3 Kizenryū, Ms1e -> J14w	5-2 Takagenji, Ms5w -> Ms1e	7-8 Terutsuyoshi, J12w -> J13e	5-10 Kitataiki, J12e -> Ms1w
2017.11	Tochihiryū	Ms10w -> J12w	4/5	1	4-3 Kizenryū, Ms2w -> J14w	6-1 Asabenkei, Ms6w -> Ms2e	6-9 Yamaguchi, J10w -> J12e	7-8 Yago, J14w -> Ms1e
2019.11	Terunofuji	Ms10w -> J13w	5/5	4	4-3 Sakigake, Ms3e -> J14w	6-1 Midorifuji, Ms12e -> Ms2e	7-8 Hōshōryū, J13w -> J14e	5-10 Kaishō, J11e -> Ms1e
2020.07	Chiyonokuni	Ms12w -> J11w	3/4	1	5-2 Kitaharima, Ms3w -> J14w	5-2 Jōkōryū, Ms4w -> Ms1w	6-9 Fujiazuma, J11e -> J14e	6-9 Takagenji, J13e -> Ms1e

Legend:
D/P: Demotion/Promotion. Discrepancies mean intai. 2008 was the drug scandal, and 2010 was the gambling scandal.
RR: Relative rank. What ordinal position did the zenshō promotee hold amongst the other jūryō promotees?
LSRP: Lowest subsequent rank (promoted). Details of the rikishi who held the lowest ordinal rank amongst jūryō promotees.
HSRNP: Highest subsequent rank (not promoted). Details of the rikishi who held the highest ordinal rank amongst makushita non-promotees.
LSRND: Lowest subsequent rank (not demoted). Details of the rikishi who held the lowest ordinal rank amongst jūryō non-demotees.
HSRD: Highest subsequent rank (demoted). Details of the rikishi who held the highest ordinal rank amongst jūryō demotees.

The premise of the study was to try and identify the promotion/demotion borderline between jūryō and makushita in the context of how makushita zenshō promotees ranked amongst their peers who were also promoted. This includes 16 promotion cases, largely in the Ms10-Ms12 range, as well as the Ms15TD case of Shimoda.

This study is impaired somewhat by there being only one Ms15 ever to zenshō (Shimoda). Shimoda's TD status confounds affairs, because his non-promotion can be explained either as a case of bad banzuke luck (in which case the promotion of zenshō Ms15 and above is not absolute, merely very strongly favoured), or an exception that a TD is not allowed to be promoted to jūryō on his very second basho (in which case the promotion of zenshō Ms15 and above is arguably still absolute subject only to this overriding exception). Unfortunately, there are no other cases of TD having 7-0s that would disambiguate this, and current TDs Mitakeumi, Endō, and Ichinojō went 6-1 in their debuts so they are of no help.

Given that promotion is also dependent on what we often refer to as banzuke luck, the rikishi around the promotion borderline are also captured. This includes four rikishi: the subsequently lowest ranked of the makushita -> jūryō promotees, the subsequently highest ranked makushita rikishi who wasn't promoted, the lowest ranked of the jūryō rikishi who wasn't demoted, and the highest ranked of the jūryō -> makushita demotees. The idea is that the cutoffs can be roughly bracketed by looking at the ranks for the next basho: the cutoff for promotion should be between the lowest next basho rank of the promoted rikishi and the highest next basho rank of the non-promoted rikishi, and a similar philosophy applies for demotion cutoffs.

Of the 16 promotion cases, zenshō candidates have tended to be ranked highest amongst their fellow jūryō promotees about half the time (7/16). These cases aren't useful for us because they are not anywhere near the cutoff, although they suggest that zenshō candidates will be looked on favourably beyond what their rank/records warrant (tentatively applying a movement magnitude of roughly 2x the W-L differential for the purposes of determining future rank).

Only in one instance was the zenshō candidate the lowest ranked amongst their promotees (Kotokuni, highlighted in green), and in three more cases the zenshō candidate was second-lowest ranked (highlighted in teal). In Kotokuni's case, his 7-0 from Ms10e was given priority over a 5-2 Ms1w Fukuoka(!), compared to Shimoda's case, where a 4-3 Ms1w Ryūō was given priority over a Ms15TD Shimoda. It is true Kotokuni and Shimoda are on different ends of the ranks considered for promotion, such that a 14-rank movement would do for Kotokuni but not Shimoda, but it does go against the absolute nature of the rule that Ms15 and above are promoted, and lends strength to the TD exception hypothesis. There is still room to suggest that the TD exception is not absolute either and operates more as a bias against a TD in the event of bad banzuke luck.

Assuming Ochiai is not hard-prevented from promotion due to the TD exception, and assuming for now the movement magnitude of 2x a W-L differential, then the makushita queue for only Tamashōhō, Tokushōryū, Tsukahara, and Ochiai would shake out as follows: Tamashōhō with a win, Tokushōryū with a win, Tsukahara with a win, Tokushōryū with a loss, Ochiai with a win, Tsukahara with a loss. This is mainly based on Aki 2010, where a Ms13w 7-0 Takayasu ranked ahead of Ms5w 6-1 Chiyohakuhō (J11e  vs J12e) in a pretty similar situation to now. Making some allowance for Ochiai's lower rank relative to Takayasu, Tsukahara should be able to come out ahead of him with a win, is my very tentative guess.

[Sakura 1,463]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

This study is impaired somewhat by there being only one Ms15 ever to zenshō (Shimoda). Shimoda's TD status confounds affairs, because his non-promotion can be explained either as a case of bad banzuke luck (in which case the promotion of zenshō Ms15 and above is not absolute, merely very strongly favoured), or an exception that a TD is not allowed to be p

You  missed Ryuko from your list. Ms15 7-0 2020.11. 

[Seiyashi 4,068]

4 minutes ago, Sakura said:

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

This study is impaired somewhat by there being only one Ms15 ever to zenshō (Shimoda). Shimoda's TD status confounds affairs, because his non-promotion can be explained either as a case of bad banzuke luck (in which case the promotion of zenshō Ms15 and above is not absolute, merely very strongly favoured), or an exception that a TD is not allowed to be p

You  missed Ryuko from your list. Ms15 7-0 2020.11. 

Applying the same analysis to Ryūkō:

• Second to last-ranked out of 4 promotees, fortifying the idea that doing it from Ms15 means a corresponding rank movement down.
• Lowest promotee is 4-3 Shiraishi Ms2w -> J14w.
• Highest non-promotee is 4-3 Kitaharima, Ms3e -> Ms1e.
• Highest demotee is 3-12 Nishikifuji, J13w -> Ms5w
• Lowest non-demotee is 5-10 Ikioi, J8w -> J13e 

[maglor 122]

Not that I think Takakeisho should be promoted, but I just don't understand the point of caring about who the losses are to. Is it really worse to beat Hakuho and lose to Enho than it is to beat Enho and lose to Hakuho?

[Seiyashi 4,068]

32 minutes ago, maglor said:

Not that I think Takakeisho should be promoted, but I just don't understand the point of caring about who the losses are to. Is it really worse to beat Hakuho and lose to Enho than it is to beat Enho and lose to Hakuho?

I think the point isn't so much who the losses are to than how you look in those losses. If you lose to someone who's not really at your skill level and not really having a good basho either, then questions ought rightly be asked about whether you're as good as you claim to be.

For an example of a loss that looks good - see Asanoyama's bout against Kakuryū pre-ōzeki promotion.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 12

Makuuchi
10-2: M8e Ōnoshō
9-3: Ō1w Takakeishō, M13e Kotoshōhō
8-4: K1e Kiribayama, M1w Daieishō, M2w Tamawashi, M9w Endō, M14w Azumaryū

Ōnoshō and Tamawashi had a good oshi bout going with some tsuppari, then Tamawashi for some reason decided to try a pull and was chased out of the ring in short order. With Takakeishō losing after getting his upper body thoroughly manhandled by Kiribayama, that leaves Ōnoshō alone atop the leaderboard for now. Kotoshōhō kept pace by overcoming good forward pressure from Nishikigi to toss the latter out of the ring with a nice sukuinage. Of the hunters, Daieishō won the battle of the purple mawashi against Mitakeumi, Endō dispatched fellow 7-4 Ichiyamamoto with an off-brand oshi attack, and Azumaryū finally secured his first KK in the top division after ten tries, against Hiradoumi.

Takakeishō gets his chance to redeem himself tomorrow by fighting Ōnoshō, while Kotoshōhō starts getting a better class of opponent in KK-seeking Abi - should he win, he'll find himself against true sanyaku opposition in all likelihood for the last two days. None of the 8-4s have any yūshō-significant matchups. Although it's true that the 7-5s who win can become nominally part of the yūshō arasoi should Takakeishō beat Ōnoshō tomorrow, the worst top division yūshō has only ever been 11-4, so it's safe to say that the 5-loss group is probably not going to be in it.

Jūryō
11-1: J5e Kinbōzan, J12w Asanoyama
10-2: J6w Daishōhō
9-3: J7e Chiyonokuni, J13e Shōnannoumi

No slipup today in jūryō for either leader. Asanoyama had no trouble dispatching Shōnannoumi in the day's first jūryō bout, while Kinbōzan was initially forced on the defensive by Rōga but took advantage of a badly-executed makikae attempt by Rōga to drive forward for the win. Daishōhō denied Bushōzan a KK while Chiyonokuni disoriented a fading Ōshōma with his trademark tsuppari to the face; the latter is now at risk of an MK.

Tomorrow, Asanoyama and Kinbōzan face each other to determine a clear favourite for the jūryō yūshō. That means the yūshō score will be no worse than 12-3, so any losers from the 9-3 group today will depart the arasoi, and this also means we won't even have new mathematical joiners to the arasoi unlike in makuuchi. Daishōhō and Shōnnanoumi face each other, while Chiyonokuni gets Hakuyōzan. 

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 12

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku <-> joi

X	0-0-12	Terunofuji	YO
			O	Takakeishō	9-3	O
2	6-6	Wakatakakage	S	Hōshōryū	7-5	1
X	1-5-6	Takayasu	S	Shōdai	6-6	2
O	8-4	Kiribayama	K	Kotonowaka	5-7	3
X	4-8	Meisei	K	Wakamotoharu	6-6	2
3	5-7	Tobizaru	M1	Daieishō	8-4	O
X	5-7	Mitakeumi	M2	Tamawashi	8-4	1
2	7-5	Abi	M3	Midorifuji	6-6	3
			M4
3	7-5	Ryūden	M5	Nishikigi	7-5	3

Demotion queue: Takayasu, Meisei, Kotonowaka, Wakamotoharu
Promotion queue: Daieishō, Tamawashi, Abi, Tobizaru

Sanyaku finally confirmed its first loss by battle today, as Meisei MKs at K2e to, in all likelihood, depart sanyaku next basho. Close behind is Kotonowaka, who needs to win out to remain, and Wakamotoharu, who needs 2 from 3.

The fate of all three sekiwake continues to hang in the balance. Shōdai continues to baffle with a win today, requiring only 1 more to secure sanyaku rank, and 2 to remain sekiwake. The same goes for Wakatakakage, although considering hopes for him were so much higher, being in the same position as Shōdai isn't great. Lastly, Hōshōryū saved his sanyaku rank yesterday but remained one frustrating win short of KK and retaining his sekiwake rank, and might have done more damage to his ankle against Ryūden today.

Tomorrow, Ryūden takes on Shōdai while Wakatakakage takes on Hōshōryū. The latter sekiwake bout will confirm at least one more rank: either Hōshōryū's sekiwake rank, or Wakatakakage's sanyaku rank overall. Kotonowaka fights Tamawashi - the former has all to lose while the latter has all to gain from a win. Abi is the only rikishi other than Tamawashi who doesn't still need to win out to stand a chance of promotion; he takes on yūshō chaser Kotoshōhō tomorrow. With the relative lack of strong joi records compared to last basho, we might see a slimmer sanyaku this time, though in what numbers is still anyone's guess.

Lastly, Takakeishō's loss today almost certainly puts paid to his hopes of the rope.. That said, even if he goes JY this time round, it's still a reasonably strong result that can form a pattern of consideration; it just probably won't merit any kind of YDC/NSK discussion this time.

Makuuchi <-> jūryō

X	0-0-12	Ichinojō	M7
			M8	Ōhō	1-11	3
			...
			M11	Tochinoshin	2-3-7	3
			M12	Okinoumi	0-6	X
			...
2	5-7	Tsurugishō	M15	Mitoryū	5-7	2
1	7-5	Takarafuji	M16	Chiyomaru	3-9	X
			J1	Bushōzan	7-5	1
2	7-5	Hokuseihō	J2
			J3	Ōshōma	5-7	X
2	8-4	Tōhakuryū	J4	Enhō	6-6	X
O	11-1	Kinbōzan	J5
			J6	Daishōhō	10-2	1

Demotion queue: Okinoumi*, Ichinojō, Chiyomaru, Tochinoshin
Promotion queue: Kinbōzan, Bushōzan, Daishōhō, Hokuseihō

Last call for Tochinoshin? If he doesn't return tomorrow and win out, he's almost certainly going for a drop down the banzuke. But before that, Chiyomaru's ninth loss made it almost certain that he'll be demoted, making it at least 3 slots opening in makuuchi alongside Okinoumi's intai and Ichinojō's suspension. Tomorrow, we'll find out if perhaps up to two more slots will open, between Ōhō and Tochinoshin. Tsurugishō and Mitoryū may yet drop too, but that won't be known for sure until Saturday at the earliest. Mitoryū fights for his makuuchi position against Enhō tomorrow, whose sixth loss removed any hopes of promotion, while Tsurugisho fights already-MK Myōgiryū in what should be an easy match in terms of opponent motivation.

Down in jūryō, Kinbōzan has almost certainly done enough for promotion bar some horrendous last minute collapse and very bad banzuke luck. He's still the frontrunner for promotion on current results, but could fall behind if he loses out and his rivals win out. In terms of needing wins, Bushōzan just needs one more to hit KK at J1 and stand a good chance of promotion, and so does Daishōhō with an actual KK. Lastly, Hokuseihō and Tōhakuryū need two more wins to be in consideration for promotion, with Hokuseihō still short of his KK, and there's of course Asanoyama who must win out for a chance at promotion. Hokuseihō will try for that KK against already KK but out of yūshō contention Rōga, while Tōhakuryū faces off against 6-6 Tsushimanada fighting for his survival down at J14e

Jūryō <-> makushita

			J7	Tochimusashi	4-8	O
			J8	Kitanowaka	4-8	1
			J9
			J10	Terutsuyoshi	4-8	2
3	3-9	Chiyosakae	J11
3	4-8	Takakentō	J12
			J13	Kaishō	3-9	X
2	6-6	Tsushimanada	J14	Hakuyōzan	8-4	O
1	3-3	Tamashōhō	Ms1
1	3-3	Tomokaze	Ms2	Tokushōryū	4-2	O
			Ms3	Tochikamiyama	3-3	~
			Ms4
1	5-1	Tsukahara	Ms5	Fujiseiun	4-2	~
			Ms6	Tokihayate	5-1	~
			...
1	6-0	Ochiai	Ms15TD

Demotion queue: Okinoumi*, Kaishō, Takakentō, Chiyosakae
Promotion queue: Tokushōryū, Tamashōhō, Tomokaze, Ochiai

Kaishō is almost certain to be demoted after a ninth loss today, while Tsushimanada managed to move one win closer to safety. This leaves Takakentō and Chiyosakae, who lost their bouts today, nearer the demotion bear. Further up, Terutsuyoshi won another to require only 2 wins from 3, while Kitanowaka needs just one more win for safety and Tochimusashi removed himself from danger with a win today.

That said, unlike the makuuchi-jūryō exchange picture, there don't seem to be as many slots opening up. At least two will open but we're seeing maybe only one more in a hurry between Chiyosakae and Takakentō, maybe one more between Tsushimanada and Terutsuyoshi. Chiyosakae takes on MK but safe Churanoumi, while Takakentō has also safe Tochimusashi. Tsushimanada gets promotion-seeking Tōhakuryū, while Terutsuyoshi fights 3-9 J5w Kōtokuzan. Kōtokuzan may actually be in danger of demotion if he loses out, although he only needs one to be safe from his rank.

On the flipside, in makushita, nothing has moved today. I'm not yet sure how what I've found about how 7-0 promotions stand amongst their peers allows us to interpret the makushita picture, but I think Ochiai's chances are fairly reasonable should he actually do it, given the high number of at-best 4-3 records in upper makushita. Tsukahara also has all to play for with the potential to leapfrog 4-3 records, while Tokihayate probably has to try again next basho even with a 6-1 unless all the Ms1-3s lose. In any case, the promotion picture will firm up as the last round of makushita bouts completes, so stay tuned.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Ripe 68]

3 hours ago, maglor said:

Not that I think Takakeisho should be promoted, but I just don't understand the point of caring about who the losses are to. Is it really worse to beat Hakuho and lose to Enho than it is to beat Enho and lose to Hakuho?

I don't think it's necessarily about who he lost to, it's more about how well those he lost to did during the tournament... there is a difference between loosing to someone who gets double digit wins (possibly even compete to win a yusho) and loosing to someone who goes MK or end up with double digit loses.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Ripe

[Sumo Spiffy 523]

4 hours ago, maglor said:

Not that I think Takakeisho should be promoted, but I just don't understand the point of caring about who the losses are to. Is it really worse to beat Hakuho and lose to Enho than it is to beat Enho and lose to Hakuho?

There's a certain factor of how the fights go as well (as @Seiyashi said). Losing to Kiri today wasn't that bad in a vacuum; Kiri's a tough match and he's doing well. Tobizaru and Kotonowaka are both skilled, and have moments where they just go off and surprise people; if they fought against Takakeisho in ways that went above and beyond what they showed the rest of the basho, we'd probably be saying, "By numbers, those losses aren't great, but Tobi/Koto seriously brought it and it wasn't like Keisho did poorly." But those were pretty normal fights for those guys, which means a guy shooting for yokozuna (and who also has strong head-to-head records against both) should be slapping them up, and he didn't.

[Godango 956]

4 hours ago, maglor said:

Not that I think Takakeisho should be promoted, but I just don't understand the point of caring about who the losses are to. Is it really worse to beat Hakuho and lose to Enho than it is to beat Enho and lose to Hakuho?

In short, yes. Granted, Kiribayama is still sanyaku, so no kinboshi; but they don't want to promote someone who looks like they might be handing kinboshi out left right and centre.

Further we're again not looking at a Rikishi with a track record for consistent dominance. 

Takakeisho's Ozeki Tenure
I'm going to cut him some slack here and only include his Ozeki basho from his return to the rank in Kyushu 2019.
Average Wins:  8.61 (4/7, 57%)
KK: 14/18 basho (79%)
JY: 3
D: 2
Y: 1

So over his Ozeki career, he's a champion/runner-up 1/3 times, and KK's 7/9 times. Is that Yokozuna level? I dunno. Hard to say based on our recent history of aged, injured yokozuna. But it's not 'dominance', and I would understand if they're not happy with it. 

For completeness; let's do the same to his last year, so all of 2022:
Average Wins: 8.33 (5/9, 56%)
KK: 5/6 basho (83%)
JY: 1
D: 1 
Y: 0

Better KK ratio with 5/6, and the same champion/runner-up %; but hardly dominant, with an his average wins actually going down.

Based on the above, you have a 50/50 ozeki who has shown flashes of brilliance; but is not consistently dominant enough to be considered at yokozuna level. This is where a strong yusho could have changed opinion; but instead it looks like he's reverting to type.

Also in case it sounds like I'm dismissing his achievements, no way. He's a solid ozeki and has had a hell of a career, he just hasn't earned the rope (yet).

 

 

[Yamanashi 3,689]

8 minutes ago, Ripe said:

I don't think it's necessarily about who he lost, it's more about how well those he lost to did during the tournament... there is a difference between loosing to someone who gets double digit wins (possibly even compete to win a yusho) and loosing to someone who goes MK or end up with double digit loses.

A casual look at the last several Yokozuna (and their losses in the preceding two basho before elevation) show that there certainly was a tendency to drop some to rank-and-filers:

 

Terunofuji -- 12-3 Y (M4 Myogiryu, M8 Endo, O Takakeisho); 14-1 J (Hakuho)

Kisenosato - 12-3 J (M3 Endo, M3 Shodai, M6 Tochinoshin); 14-1 Y (O Kotoshogiku)

Kakuryu - 14-1 D (M1 Okinoumi); 14-1 Y (M2 Okinoumi)

Harumafuji - 15-0 Y; 15-0 Y [Boss]

Hakuho - 13-2 Y (M1 Kisenosato, Y Asashoryu); 15-0 Y

Asashoryu - 14-1 Y (M6 Tochinonada); 14-1 Y (M5 Kaiho)

Musashimaru - 13-2 Y (K Akinoshima, K Kaiō); 13-2 Y (M4 Kyokushuzan, M3 Chiyotenzan)

Wakanohana II - 14-1 Y (Y Akebono); 12-3 Y (M3 Oginishiki, M2 Kotonishiki, S Kaiō)

 

[Reonito 1,304]

9 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Applying the same analysis to Ryūkō:

• Second to last-ranked out of 4 promotees, fortifying the idea that doing it from Ms15 means a corresponding rank movement down.
• Lowest promotee is 4-3 Shiraishi Ms2w -> J14w.
• Highest non-promotee is 4-3 Kitaharima, Ms3e -> Ms1e.
• Highest demotee is 3-12 Nishikifuji, J13w -> Ms5w
• Lowest non-demotee is 5-10 Ikioi, J8w -> J13e 

I'd informally looked through these and got a similar sense. A caveat is that the order if both are in J or both are in Ms may not reflect the promotion priority if there were space for only one (e.g. an Ms6 6-1 would be ranked above an Ms5 5-2 if both stayed in Ms, but the latter would be promoted first).

[Reonito 1,304]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Abi is the only rikishi other than Tamawashi who doesn't still need to win out to stand a chance of promotion

Mathematically, this is also true for Onosho, though the low rank very likely means he doesn't get promoted without winning out.

[Reonito 1,304]

5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Kōtokuzan may actually be in danger of demotion if he loses out, although he only needs one to be safe from his rank.

He is as safe (or unsafe) as Tochimusashi, no? I think both compute to J14w if they lose out, so they're probably safe unless there's very strong promotion pressure.

[Koorifuu 860]

2 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

Harumafuji - 15-0 Y; 15-0 Y [Boss]

With two AMAZING senshuraku wins against Hakuho, I might add.