Promotion /Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2023

[dingo 1,100]

5 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Banana shoes . . . banana juice? Banana Joe's!

Bud Spencer vs Hakuho -- who would win? 

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,244]

Boy I really cursed the hell out of Hoshoryuu :(

[WAKATAKE 2,610]

Two sekiwake now guaranteed to fall. Shodai getting ready to make it three. If WKTKKG doesn't pick up steam that could even be all four falling

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

7 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

Two sekiwake now guaranteed to fall. Shodai getting ready to make it three. If WKTKKG doesn't pick up steam that could even be all four falling

This is very second-hand, but I've heard Hoshoryu may not stay out the rest of the basho. If he misses two days, he's only 6-5, so even if we assume he'd also lose to Takekeisho, a remaining schedule of Shodai, Waka, and a reasonably favorable matchup with someone around .500 (he's 5-0 lifetime against Hokutofuji) could let him KK if he's at least healthy enough to step on the dohyo.

[Rocks 1,801]

1 minute ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

This is very second-hand, but I've heard Hoshoryu may not stay out the rest of the basho. If he misses two days, he's only 6-5, so even if we assume he'd also lose to Takekeisho, a remaining schedule of Shodai, Waka, and a reasonably favorable matchup with someone around .500 (he's 5-0 lifetime against Hokutofuji) could let him KK if he's at least healthy enough to step on the dohyo.

I was about to say the same. Hoshoryu didn't look that bad walking out. Since this takes him out of the yusho race he will probably take 2-3 days off and try to pick up a couple wins later.

[Gurowake 3,872]

14 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

This is very second-hand, but I've heard Hoshoryu may not stay out the rest of the basho. If he misses two days, he's only 6-5, so even if we assume he'd also lose to Takekeisho, a remaining schedule of Shodai, Waka, and a reasonably favorable matchup with someone around .500 (he's 5-0 lifetime against Hokutofuji) could let him KK if he's at least healthy enough to step on the dohyo.

Hoshoryu returning after leaving would potentially cause a lot of issues with the intrasanyaku scheduling.  Unless they know for sure what day he's going to return (which is exceedingly unlikely), they're going to schedule things as though he won't return, which means less matches per day most likely (though I haven't worked it out).  When he returns, it might not be possible to do all the matches that are left to do given his return.  Presumably they'd skip the ones he's involved in that are the least interesting, but that means I wouldn't say anything for sure about which of the remaining sanyaku he's likely to meet.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

28 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

45 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

This is very second-hand, but I've heard Hoshoryu may not stay out the rest of the basho. If he misses two days, he's only 6-5, so even if we assume he'd also lose to Takekeisho, a remaining schedule of Shodai, Waka, and a reasonably favorable matchup with someone around .500 (he's 5-0 lifetime against Hokutofuji) could let him KK if he's at least healthy enough to step on the dohyo.

Hoshoryu returning after leaving would potentially cause a lot of issues with the intrasanyaku scheduling.  Unless they know for sure what day he's going to return (which is exceedingly unlikely), they're going to schedule things as though he won't return, which means less matches per day most likely (though I haven't worked it out).  When he returns, it might not be possible to do all the matches that are left to do given his return.  Presumably they'd skip the ones he's involved in that are the least interesting, but that means I wouldn't say anything for sure about which of the remaining sanyaku he's likely to meet.

Hey, more fun for GKA, right?

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

37 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Hoshoryu returning after leaving would potentially cause a lot of issues with the intrasanyaku scheduling.  Unless they know for sure what day he's going to return (which is exceedingly unlikely), they're going to schedule things as though he won't return, which means less matches per day most likely (though I haven't worked it out).  When he returns, it might not be possible to do all the matches that are left to do given his return.  Presumably they'd skip the ones he's involved in that are the least interesting, but that means I wouldn't say anything for sure about which of the remaining sanyaku he's likely to meet.

True, but apparently they do know how long he'll be out, because he's on the day 11 schedule.

[Reonito 1,294]

38 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Hoshoryu returning after leaving would potentially cause a lot of issues with the intrasanyaku scheduling.  Unless they know for sure what day he's going to return (which is exceedingly unlikely), they're going to schedule things as though he won't return, which means less matches per day most likely (though I haven't worked it out).  When he returns, it might not be possible to do all the matches that are left to do given his return.  Presumably they'd skip the ones he's involved in that are the least interesting, but that means I wouldn't say anything for sure about which of the remaining sanyaku he's likely to meet.

He's listed as out for day 10, returning day 11—don't think I've ever seen that before.

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

He's listed as out for day 10, returning day 11—don't think I've ever seen that before.

Same. I actually thought there was a rule that someone who goes kyujo has to stay out for at least a second day, because it seemed like that was the minimum absence anyone ever had.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Then talk of Hōshōryū's demotion is premature, and the only sure fall is Takayasu. He may yet be joined, but not at this time. 

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 10

Makuuchi
9-1: Ō1e Takakeishō
8-2: M8e Ōnoshō, M13e Kotoshōhō
7-3: M2w Tamawashi, M5w Nishikigi, M10w Hiradoumi, M14w Azumaryū

Takakeishō really wants that rope, huh? That's the second time in three days he's used a kotenage, seemingly trying to show that he's more well-rounded than just an oshi machine. At the very least, it makes people think twice about immediately engaging him in yotsu, now that they know he can and will pull out throwing tricks.

Because leader Takakeishō won, anyone in the arasoi who didn't also win today falls further behind. Both chasers won to keep pace; Kotoshōhō had to go through a redo with Ura, but managed to survive Ura's ashitori long enough to shove the pink trickster to the floor. Ōnoshō's bout looked suspiciously like Kotoshōhō's first, taking his aite all the way to the edge before falling, but at least Ōnoshō lasted long enough to have Nishikifuji touch down first before he himself collapsed. The hunt group at two behind lost a whole bunch of members mostly from internecine warfare, including injured Hōshōryū taking the day off, Daieishō losing to Tamawashi, Ura losing to Kotoshōhō, Ichiyamamoto losing to Hiradoumi, and Takarafuji getting henkaed by Endō.

Tomorrow's bouts will see a lot more elimination from within the yūshō arasoi, meaning the losers must also pray Takakeishō loses to Kotonowaka to avoid falling further behind. Ōnoshō and Kotoshōhō take on each other, while Tamawashi and Nishikigi do likewise. Hiradoumi has 3-7 Mitoryū; it's true Hiradoumi barely survived his first stay in makuuchi but this feels like criminally underrating him when the last member of the arasoi is still available. Perhaps they judged a MK-avoiding rikishi was a stronger opponent than a KK-seeking one in the form of Azumaryū, when said KK seeker has never KKed in the top division. Incidentally, Azumaryū has Endō tomorrow, and is almost certainly on guard against a repeat performance of the henka that dispatched would-be hunter Takarafuji.

Jūryō
10-0: J12w Asanoyama
9-1: J5e Kinbōzan
8-2: J6w Daishōhō, J13e Shōnannoumi

A similar story down in jūryō, where ex-ōzeki Asanoyama is doing perhaps what an ōzeki should be doing in guarding the yūshō, just doing it one division lower. He had no trouble dispatching Tōhakuryū with a straightforward oshitaoshi despite an earnest attempt by the latter to dispossess him of his head. That eliminates hunter Tōhakuryū from the arasoi. The other loss from the arasoi from yesterday would be Rōga, who fell to fellow hunter Shōnannoumi. Daishōhō beat Hokuseihō to keep pace, as did Kinbōzan over Hokuseihō's "rival", Ōshōma.

Tomorrow's bouts sees Asanoyama against Daishōhō; we either lose one more person from the arasoi or Daishōhō causes the upset of the basho by dragging Asanoyama down for Kinbōzan's benefit. Shōnannoumi and Kinbōzan are surely on the cards for the ex-ōzeki moving forward, but for now they take on 4-6 Kitanowaka and 7-3 Tōhakuryū respectively.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 10

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku/joi

X	0-0-10	Terunofuji	YO
			O	Takakeishō	9-1	O
3	5-5	Wakatakakage	S	Hōshōryū	6-4	2
X	1-5-4	Takayasu	S	Shōdai	4-6	4
2	6-4	Kiribayama	K	Kotonowaka	4-6	4
5	3-7	Meisei	K	Wakamotoharu	6-4	2
5	3-7	Tobizaru	M1	Daieishō	6-4	3
4	5-5	Mitakeumi	M2	Tamawashi	7-3	2
3	6-4	Abi	M3	Midorifuji	5-5	4
			M4
5	5-5	Ryūden	M5	Nishikigi	7-3	3
5	6-4	Hokutofuji	M6

Demotion queue: Takayasu, Meisei, Kotonowaka, Shōdai
Promotion queue: Tamawashi, Daieishō, Abi, Nishikigi

Kiribayama, Wakamotoharu, and Shōdai(!) made the right moves towards retaining their rank. Kotonowaka, after his loss to Mitakeumi, moves ahead in the demotion queue, and he'd better gird his loins for a high-octane slugfest with in-form nemesis Takakeishō tomorrow. Wakatakakage and Hōshōryū are also not safe yet, the former with a loss to Sadanoumi (perversely proving Hōshōryū's wisdom in henkaing the wily veteran) and the latter taking a day off to nurse an injured ankle.

In terms of promotion, Tamawashi beat Daieishō to become the frontrunner for repromotion to sanyaku. Abi and Nishikigi bring up the rear of the queue after Midorifuji fell further behind. Tobizaru has to win out to stand a chance of repromotion, and he's thankfully done with pretty much the sanyaku part of his fight card, but arguably his joi companions are more dangerous than the sanyaku this basho and it's most unlikely he runs the table.

Makuuchi/jūryō

X	0-0-10	Ichinojō	M7
			M8	Ōhō	1-9	3
1	4-6	Takanoshō	M9
			M10
1	4-6	Chiyoshōma	M11	Tochinoshin	2-3-5	3
1	5-5	Kagayaki	M12	Okinoumi	0-6-4	X
			M13	Kotoekō	5-5	1
1	6-4	Ichiyamamoto	M14	Azumaryū	7-3	O
3	4-6	Tsurugishō	M15	Mitoryū	3-7	4
2	6-4	Takarafuji	M16	Chiyomaru	2-8	~
			J1	Bushōzan	6-4	2
3	6-4	Hokuseihō	J2
X	3-7	Atamifuji	J3	Ōshōma	5-5	4
3	7-3	Tōhakuryū	J4	Enhō	5-5	5
1	9-1	Kinbōzan	J5
			J6	Daishōhō	8-2	3

Demotion queue: Okinoumi*, Ichinojō, Chiyomaru, Mitoryū
Promotion queue: Kinbōzan, Bushōzan, Hokuseihō, Tōhakuryū

First off with an editorial correction. Yesterday, I listed Tochinoshin as having missed his outcome, which is true only in the event that he chooses not to return to defend his rank (which, unlike Okinoumi and Ichinojō, he still technically has a choice in). He needs to win 3 to save his top division berth, which is unlikely with his dislocated left shoulder, so it's more likely than not that he sits the rest of this one out, in which case he will fall. But in reporting things as they stand today, he's not yet in the most danger.

That dubious honour goes to Chiyomaru who MKs in the makujiri position and makes his demotion fairly likely. His only hope of salvation is to win out and for fellow endangered rikishi like Mitoryū, Tsurugishō, and Tochinoshin to lose out and wind up with a worse record than him by the numbers, and for that to be combined with a lack of strong promotion cases from jūryō, in which case five sets of exchanges might just miss him. But he has to win out first, and that's a tall order given his skill and record this basho.

In jūryō, Kinbōzan and Bushōzan both moved one win closer to cementing their promotions to makuuchi. Hokuseihō and Tōhakuryū both lost today, so while the promotion queue looks much the same as yesterday, the gap in between has widened. Behind Daishōhō and Ōshōma in the queue is Asanoyama, who won again today to make 14-1 or 15-0 look more and more probable by the day to secure a fast track return to makuuchi; if he does do so, it could be a nasty surprise for any borderline demotion cases in makuuchi (*cough* Chiyomaru with a win-out) who would otherwise have been saved by a lack of strong records in upper jūryō.

Jūryō/makushita

			J7	Tochimusashi	2-8	2
1	4-6	Shimanoumi	J8	Kitanowaka	4-6	1
			J9	Hidenoumi	4-6	1
			J10	Terutsuyoshi	2-8	4
3	3-7	Chiyosakae	J11	Shimazuumi	6-4	O
3	4-6	Takakentō	J12
			J13	Kaishō	3-7	4
4	4-6	Tsushimanada	J14	Hakuyōzan	6-4	2
1	3-2	Tamashōhō	Ms1	Ishizaki	2-3	2
2	2-3	Tomokaze	Ms2	Tokushōryū	3-2	1
			Ms3	Tochikamiyama	3-2	2
X	2-3	Shiden	Ms4	Kamito	2-3	X
2	4-1	Tsukahara	Ms5	Fujiseiun	3-2	X
X	2-3	Dewanoryū	Ms6	Tokihayate	4-1	~
~	4-1	Kawazoe	Ms7	Chiyonoumi	3-2	X
			...
2	5-0	Ochiai	TD

Demotion queue: Okinoumi*, Tsushimanada, Kaishō, Terutsuyoshi
Promotion queue: Tamashōhō, Tokushōryū, Ishizaki, Tomokaze

Shimazuumi most likely removed himself from danger today with his 6th win, ensuring his rank record combination is no worse than J14w at the end of the day. Likewise moving closer to safety today was Takakentō, whose place in the demotion queue is now taken by Terutsuyoshi. There's still some wiggle room for all three of the rikishi in the demotion queue, who "only" need to win 4 of 5, but it's time to get moving.

With only some records moving in makushita, I'm taking the opportunity to tidy up the joi assessments a bit. Looking at the Ms5 invisible line and up, most of Ms1-3 still have got a shot with KKs hanging in the balance. The Ms4 pair of Shiden and Kamito, though not yet MK, are low enough with 2-3s that a 4-3 is likely not going to cut it, and the only other person with a reasonable case when winning out is Ms5 4-1 Tsukahara. Ms6 Tokihayate and Ms7 Kawazoe have strong 4-1 records but are on the wrong side of the line, so must win out and also pray for the bottom to fall out of lower jūryō to even have a chance, whereas Ochiai is doing well but needs the zenshō before his promotion is worth talking about. He goes through Hayatefuji tomorrow, with his likely final opponent being hotshot Kazekenō who's gone 6-1 in every basho so far. If that pattern holds, perhaps Kazekenō's loss this basho is going to come from Ochiai - not improbable, and certainly something that might be weighing on Kazekenō's mind going into the last two bouts.

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

I can't wait for the committee to have skipped a situation of cutting ten sanyaku down to seven or eight, only to end up with one where one could argue they should cut it to six!

Edit: My sumodb skills aren't sufficient for this purpose, so does anyone know the record for juryo promotions on a single banzuke?

Edited January 17, 2023 by Sumo Spiffy

[Yamanashi 3,669]

@Seiyashi: Nice work in the cockpit for this basho's Promotion/Demotion thread.

Other than Takakeisho, this seems to be one of those basho where humans are reading patterns into random noise.  Old guys (Nishikigi, Aoiyama, Takarafuji) attempting comebacks; top dogs (Wakatakakage, Abi, Hoshoryu) looking "not up to snuff"),  while the Sumo gods are up there rolling dice for the outcomes.

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

2 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

@Seiyashi: Nice work in the cockpit for this basho's Promotion/Demotion thread.

Other than Takakeisho, this seems to be one of those basho where humans are reading patterns into random noise.  Old guys (Nishikigi, Aoiyama, Takarafuji) attempting comebacks; top dogs (Wakatakakage, Abi, Hoshoryu) looking "not up to snuff"),  while the Sumo gods are up there rolling dice for the outcomes.

"Random noise" would be what happens in one basho, maybe two. In some of these cases you're right, ie. anyone expecting big things going forward from Aoiyama or Takarafuji, or somehow thinking Hoshoryu is screwed. But Nishikigi has been hanging on for a minute now around this level despite it being a higher rank than he's seen for his career to this point (same for Sadanoumi, although the magic carpet ride appears to be ending). Ever since Waka's yusho, we've seen vulnerability in his approach, and Abi still hasn't managed to dominate at a joi/sanyaku level the way it appears he can when he gets on a roll against lower ranks and stomps out high-end opponents towards the end of a basho. So, there is more background to lean on with some guys.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

23 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I can't wait for the committee to have skipped a situation of cutting ten sanyaku down to seven or eight, only to end up with one where one could argue they should cut it to six!

Edit: My sumodb skills aren't sufficient for this purpose, so does anyone know the record for juryo promotions on a single banzuke?

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&group_by=basho&form1_rank=ms&form2_rank=j

13, but that was the aftermath of the yaocho scandal. A later entry at 9 is also connected to the same instance.

8 promotions in Kyūshū 2003 was due to the expansion of the sekitori ranks.

The record without any external disturbances seems to be 7, most recently in Hatsu 2018.

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&group_by=basho&form1_rank=ms&form2_rank=j

13, but that was the aftermath of the yaocho scandal. A later entry at 9 is also connected to the same instance.

8 promotions in Kyūshū 2003 was due to the expansion of the sekitori ranks.

The record without any external disturbances seems to be 7, most recently in Hatsu 2018.

Good to know, but more so thanks for showing me how to figure that out, because I'm an idiot and meant promotions from juryo to makuuchi.

Which is this!

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&group_by=basho&form1_rank=j&form2_rank=m

[Seiyashi 4,068]

47 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

meant promotions from juryo to makuuchi.

Funnily enough that's what I thought you meant and searched for first, then I reread your post and thought it was more likely you were asking for makushita given the number of possible promotees from there.

And yes, Haru 2014: 6 demotions + a retirement would make the unblemished record 7. The scandal-related figure of 9 is perhaps not quite replicable in the best of times.

[Yamanashi 3,669]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

"Random noise" would be what happens in one basho, maybe two. In some of these cases you're right, ie. anyone expecting big things going forward from Aoiyama or Takarafuji, or somehow thinking Hoshoryu is screwed. But Nishikigi has been hanging on for a minute now around this level despite it being a higher rank than he's seen for his career to this point (same for Sadanoumi, although the magic carpet ride appears to be ending). Ever since Waka's yusho, we've seen vulnerability in his approach, and Abi still hasn't managed to dominate at a joi/sanyaku level the way it appears he can when he gets on a roll against lower ranks and stomps out high-end opponents towards the end of a basho. So, there is more background to lean on with some guys.

Yes, that's my point.  Because of our mental makeup, we've got trends worked out after 5 (or 10) days that don't pan out after 15.  It seems to be a little more so this basho than usual, so the Promotion/Demotion discussion may be even more tentative than usual.  Case in point: will Shodai stay in San'yaku?

[Seiyashi 4,068]

15 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Yes, that's my point.  Because of our mental makeup, we've got trends worked out after 5 (or 10) days that don't pan out after 15.  It seems to be a little more so this basho than usual, so the Promotion/Demotion discussion may be even more tentative than usual.  Case in point: will Shodai stay in San'yaku?

At least the way I do it, I don't try to say a trend is happening so much as lay out the future paths forward and the different possibilities that can manifest. Naturally it gets too complex beyond a certain depth, so the earlier in a basho this thread gets started, the less useful the forecasts can be. IMO this thread really gets in gear round day 12-13 when the yūshō arasoi start crystallising when they start fighting each other, and a good number of KK/MKs have appeared, making it easier to lay out a bunch of varying outcomes for promotion.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Yamanashi 3,669]

20 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

At least the way I do it, I don't try to say a trend is happening so much as lay out the future paths forward and the different possibilities that can manifest. Naturally it gets too complex beyond a certain depth, so the earlier in a basho this thread gets started, the less useful the forecasts can be. IMO this thread really gets in gear round day 12-13 when the yūshō arasoi start crystallising when they start fighting each other, and a good number of KK/MKs have appeared, making it easier to lay out a bunch of varying outcomes for promotion.

To be clear, I have no problem with the way you or others do what you do.  My point was that this seems to be a "more random than usual" basho, and so every inference we make beyond the mathematical seems like apotelesm (look that one up, Forumites!)

[Kashunowaka 300]

Thank you so much for doing this @Seiyashi, I really appreciate these posts. 

Shouldn't Daieisho's target result be 8-7 rather than 9-6, by the numbers? I know that there is banzuke unluck and all that, but for the sake of consistency.

[Reonito 1,294]

3 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

But Nishikigi has been hanging on for a minute now around this level despite it being a higher rank than he's seen for his career to this point

He did have an earlier foray into the joi, with a kinboshi no less! 

East Maegashira #3 8–7
2019	East Maegashira #2 7–8 ★	East Maegashira #3 4–11

[Tigerboy1966 1,367]

48 minutes ago, Reonito said:

4 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

But Nishikigi has been hanging on for a minute now around this level despite it being a higher rank than he's seen for his career to this point

He did have an earlier foray into the joi, with a kinboshi no less! 

East Maegashira #3 8–7
2019	East Maegashira #2 7–8 ★	East Maegashira #3

Nishikigi's first visit to the upper ranks was due to a whopping helping of banzuke luck. Everyone expended him to get squished but he managed to hang in there for a couple of basho. This time around he has made steady progress and looked very solid. If you look at the most maku'uchi wins over the last six basho, including this one, Nishikigi is in 8th place.