Seiyashi

Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Kyūshū 2022

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Sakura said:

The following link shows the number of times a Maegashira has beaten a sanyaku member in the basho. Aki comes to with 40, and this basho has 36. (The median amount is 26). The difference between the two is that a lot more losses are coming from the large Sekiwake and Komusubi ranks, which now need thinning out. Aki of course had two 4-11 Ozeki and a 5-5-5 Yokozuna, which had the effect of the increased Sanyaku size.

In between we have Hatsu 2020, but that was an easy Sanyaku exchange. 

It's sort of amazing that Kyushu 2019, which was previously the arguable gold standard for bashos that created a clusterfk for the next banzuke, is only around the median. Of course, part of the reason is that injuries made it so the sanyaku as a whole fought about eight rikishi worth of matches, whereas Kyushu 2022 had nine; in fact, that difference is equivalent to any of the 6-9 sanyaku we just saw, who are part of the problem we're running into.

I still have to find time to break down the numbers more completely, but I remain convinced for now that across the history of sumo, this next banzuke will be singularly fked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

It's sort of amazing that Kyushu 2019, which was previously the arguable gold standard for bashos that created a clusterfk for the next banzuke, is only around the median. Of course, part of the reason is that injuries made it so the sanyaku as a whole fought about eight rikishi worth of matches, whereas Kyushu 2022 had nine; in fact, that difference is equivalent to any of the 6-9 sanyaku we just saw, who are part of the problem we're running into.

I still have to find time to break down the numbers more completely, but I remain convinced for now that across the history of sumo, this next banzuke will be singularly fked.

The key difference with Kyushu 2019 is that there were only 5 KK records in M1-M6, all of them 8-7. Here we have 9, including 4 9-6's, a 10-5, and a 12-3 (that one doesn't cause extra problems, but the 12-3 at M9 does). Combine that with a similar san'yaku implosion, and

giphy.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Iwatched the final-day bouts with an increasing sense of GTB dread, as Nishikigi, Sadanoumi, Wakamotoharu, Midorifuji, Meisei, Kotonowaka, Daieisho, Tobizaru, Tamawashi, and Nishikifuji all won, that last one also dropping Mitakeumi to 6-9. Pretty much every single result added to the unprecedented logjam we're now trying to sort out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I mean this statement literally, not rudely: I have no idea what you're talking about.

For one, I don't know who's getting demoted where. Even assuming the unmentioned slots are for the sanyaku demotions (M1E, M2W, M3W, M4E), though, your shorthand looks like it's referring to where the wrestlers will be moved, but in that case it appears you're saying Sadanoumi, Nishikifuji, and Ryuden will all end up at M4W.

Sorry, things often make more sense in my head but then I forget I'm the only one in there. 

"Meisei (M2e 9-6) M1w^" Every rikishi with that rank-record combination  has been placed M1w or higher. 

As far as demotions, mainly the issue is placing the guys coming out of sanyaku, order not particularly important for what I was trying to demonstrate, which is what it's going to probably take to accommodate them.

Edited by Wakawakawaka
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Simply just to close the loop, since we apparently forgot entirely about the jūryō yūshō in the excitement of the makuuchi one: Daiamami managed to beat Ōshōma in regulation to leave both of them on 11-4, but none of the other chasers (Tsurugishō, Akua, Hokuseihō) could win to join them. Ōshōma beat Daiamami in the resulting playoff to take the jūryō yūshō.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also, since Kinta hasn't started the GTB thread yet, here's the helper sheet for anyone who wants to start tinkering but who can't be arsed to set a sheet up on their own.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U57Nuizid76fwz2fwwO4nlmeM0WQcA2rE7PbkH41IUA/edit?usp=sharing

I'll post the updated one with countdown timer when Kinta gets that one up.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder if Hokuseiho's 10-5 is enough to get him from J6 to the bottom of makuuchi. I'm feeling probably not, and he'll end up J1 or J2?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, dada78641 said:

I wonder if Hokuseiho's 10-5 is enough to get him from J6 to the bottom of makuuchi. I'm feeling probably not, and he'll end up J1 or J2?

Don't think so. Mitoryū, Chiyomaru, Akua, and Tsurugishō are ahead of him in the queue, and there's still doubt whether Takarafuji will drop for a fourth slot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, dada78641 said:

I wonder if Hokuseiho's 10-5 is enough to get him from J6 to the bottom of makuuchi. I'm feeling probably not, and he'll end up J1 or J2?

6 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Don't think so. Mitoryū, Chiyomaru, Akua, and Tsurugishō are ahead of him in the queue, and there's still doubt whether Takarafuji will drop for a fourth slot.

I concur. For what my "great" knowledge of the Banzuke is worth, I put Takarafuji at M17e (dead last), Mitoryu at J1e and Hokuseiho at J1w.

Takarafuji should be put "by the numbers" exactly to M17e, which is a spot that could be actually opened for Hatsu thanks to Shodai leaving an Ozeki spot void. There could be an outside chance that Mitoryu (claiming a J0w spot, either M16w or a non-existent M17w) could take his place, but I believe Isegahama will save Takarafuji like he did with Terutsuyoshi. Moreover, there is a general tendency to under-demote in contrast to over-promote, and this case would follow this pattern by the book. About Hokuseiho, he can only claim J1e by the numbers - lower than Mitoryu. Hence, if Mitoryu stays down, Hokuseiho will unavoidably follow suit.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hankegami said:

Takarafuji should be put "by the numbers" exactly to M17e, which is a spot that could be actually opened for Hatsu thanks to Shodai leaving an Ozeki spot void. 

The number of Maegashira is determined by the number of Sanyaku. Shodai leaving Ozeki to Sekiwake has no effect on the numbers, but the shrinking sanyaku does.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hankegami said:

There could be an outside chance that Mitoryu (claiming a J0w spot, either M16w or a non-existent M17w) could take his place, but I believe Isegahama will save Takarafuji like he did with Terutsuyoshi.

We really need to stop acting like the slightest favorable outcome for an Isegahama wrestler is due to shenanigans from their coach. Chiyotairyu's gone, Terutsuyoshi and Atamifuji are dropping, which leaves room for Tsurugisho, Akua, and either Chiyomaru or Mitoryu. Chiyo and Mito calculate only a half-rank ahead of Takarafuji, and it's been completely normal over the last few years for juryo wrestlers to not be placed ahead of makuuchi ones unless there's a bigger mathematical gap than that. Furthermore, it's been normal for a very long time to see rikishi with garbage records not eat the full demotion.

And Terutsuyoshi was saved because no one could get ahead of him; that was also the correct decision based on broad precedent.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

We really need to stop acting like the slightest favorable outcome for an Isegahama wrestler is due to shenanigans from their coach.

I also thought that someone else was chairing the Banzuke meeting anyway, from the latest job listing. I can't find it though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Sakura said:

I also thought that someone else was chairing the Banzuke meeting anyway, from the latest job listing. I can't find it though.

Sadogatake? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Sadogatake? 

QUICK LET'S SAY THAT'S WHY KOTONOWAKA'S GETTING PROMOTED TO KOMUSUBI

...

sorry

this gives an indication of my attitude towards conspiracy theories, though

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

QUICK LET'S SAY THAT'S WHY KOTONOWAKA'S GETTING PROMOTED TO KOMUSUBI

...

sorry

this gives an indication of my attitude towards conspiracy theories, though

I mean... it's not like Kotonowaka doesn't have a decent chance of being promoted to komusubi.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I mean... it's not like Kotonowaka doesn't have a decent chance of being promoted to komusubi.

I don't recall where it was, but apparently his promotion's been confirmed. The relevant link was to a Japanese website that even Google wouldn't try to translate, so I can only trust the person sharing the info, but there you go.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sanspo, I believe, did mention it in Akinomaki's round up of the post basho articles. But after Asahi's "prediction" last round, I don't know if they've had it from an NSK source or are just speculating.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now