Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Kyūshū 2022

[Gurowake 3,922]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Strictly by the numbers, Kyokutenho should have been ahead of Myogiryu, (12-3 at M7W vs. 9-6 at M2E), but Myogiryu went to komusubi and Kyoku went to M1E. Asanoyama (12-3 at M8W) was behind Tamawashi, even with Abi, and ahead of Ryuden (all 10-5 at M3W, M4W, and M5W respectively), but those three went S/K/K and Asanoyama also went to M1E.

This is why I generally find it extremely unlikely that Abi will be Komusubi.  The precedent for mid-maegashira Yusho winners is generally to not consider them more worthwhile of the spot than joi members.  The only difference in this situation is that Abi was very recently demoted from Komusubi due to kyujo, which wasn't the case in the other two, but I'm not sure if that really makes much of a difference.

[Reonito 1,335]

2 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Asanoyama (12-3 at M8W) was behind Tamawashi, even with Abi, and ahead of Ryuden (all 10-5 at M3W, M4W, and M5W respectively), but those three went S/K/K and Asanoyama also went to M1E. 

I certainly had Asa taking the K slot over Ryuden in that GTB, as did most of the players (only 9 got this "right")

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

Maybe a 13-2 might have had a chance, a 14-1 would definitely get him in there.

If we look at queries for 12-3 at M7, M8 and M9, 20 wrestlers finished 12-3 at M7. You also had over a 50% chance you were going to Sanyaku from M7, even to Sekiwake on 4 different occasions. The last time an M7 went 12-3 was Takayasu in March, and he went to M1.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=M7&form1_wins=12&form1_losses=3

M8 has had only 10 wrestlers finish with 12 wins, the last Sanyaku promotion from that rank was 65 years ago. In fact the last six wrestlers who finished 12-3 all were promoted to M1.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=M8&form1_wins=12&form1_losses=3&form1_m=on

Lastly for M9, Abi's chances are abysmal at this point due to the logjam. Even though 4 of the 7 Sanyaku finished MK, the worst they did was 6-9, plus both M1's having KK and several others above Abi being KK and even double digits. Promotion to Sanyaku has only happened once in 2011 out of 15 wrestlers who went 12-3 at the rank. Takanosho finished 12-3 in March 2020 and he only went to M2.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=M9&form1_wins=12&form1_losses=3&form1_m=on

[Ripe 70]

On 04/12/2022 at 22:05, Gurowake said:

I'm beginning to think this as well the more I think about it.  They have shown that they tend to favor Yusho winners over other rikishi when moving them up the maegashira ranks, at least in the cases of Tokushoryu and Terunofuji recently.  Both were promoted by more than they really should have been by the numbers, and it's really egregious in Terunofuji's case.

I think that in Terunofuji's case the reason why he was overpromoted was the fear he might win another Yusho if he's placed where he should have been placed (about M7 or M8) which would create a problem about what to do with him since back to back Yusho is a Yokozuna worthy performance. With back to back Yusho they might have justified promoting him straight to Ozeki from M1 using 8th Yokozuna Shiranui as precedent (not that I believe they do so) but from M7/8 their options would be very, very limited.

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

1 hour ago, Ripe said:

I think that in Terunofuji's case the reason why he was overpromoted was the fear he might win another Yusho if he's placed where he should have been placed (about M7 or M8) which would create a problem about what to do with him since back to back Yusho is a Yokozuna worthy performance. With back to back Yusho they might have justified promoting him straight to Ozeki from M1 using 8th Yokozuna Shiranui as precedent (not that I believe they do so) but from M7/8 their options would be very, very limited.

I'm not sure what you mean, that their options would be limited. They would just keep moving him up, no?

It's worth noting that the level of overpromotion for the banzuke after he won was enough that without any favorable pushes, he still would have been M3-4. M7 was never an option.

[Yamanashi 3,726]

5 hours ago, Ripe said:

I think that in Terunofuji's case the reason why he was overpromoted was the fear he might win another Yusho if he's placed where he should have been placed (about M7 or M8) which would create a problem about what to do with him since back to back Yusho is a Yokozuna worthy performance. With back to back Yusho they might have justified promoting him straight to Ozeki from M1 using 8th Yokozuna Shiranui as precedent (not that I believe they do so) but from M7/8 their options would be very, very limited.

I partially agree with you (hard to say for sure: 42%? 67%?).  They didn't have anything to worry about with Tokushoryu, because he was obviously a fluke; Terunofuji, on the other hand, could get another "cheap" yusho from mid-Maegashira w/o a thorough vetting from the San'yaku.  I disagree that back-to-back Yusho would be Yokozuna worthy (they're not going to give the guy a rope for M17e - M1e yusho) but it was perhaps Yokozuna level work.  Putting him just under San'yaku gave him the complete joi experience.

Tokoshoryu: M14e 4-11  J1 7-8  J3 8-7  J1 8-7  M17 14-1Y  M2 4-11  M7 7-8  M8 7-8  M9 8-7  M8 3-12, etc.

Terunofuji: Sd49 6-1 Ms59 6-1  Ms27 6-1  Ms10 7-0  J13 13-2Y  J3 10-5  M17 13-2Y  M1 8-5-2  K1 13-2D  S1 11-4J, etc.

[Reonito 1,335]

2 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

I disagree that back-to-back Yusho would be Yokozuna worthy (they're not going to give the guy a rope for M17e - M1e yusho) but it was perhaps Yokozuna level work.

I mean, Teru went consecutive S-O yusho and wasn't given the rope, as was the case for Futabayama, who was the only other rikishi to get consecutive yusho with the first coming below Ozeki, so we know it takes back-to-back yusho (or equivalent) at Ozeki.

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

This isn't about where everyone is going to end up, just about what a pain in the ass it will be to get them there.

 

[Seiyashi 4,071]

Yeah I'm definitely sitting this one out, tried opening my laptop to think about it and instantly crashed from the mental load thanks to certain recent Life Events. All the best, guys. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Sue 483]

On 17/12/2022 at 14:26, Sumo Spiffy said:

 

 

Yuk-san wa kibishii desu.
Yuk-san wa midori desu!

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

21 hours ago, Sue said:

Yuk-san wa kibishii desu.
Yuk-san wa midori desu!

Yes, he is severe and green! At least, that's what Google told me you said.

[Gurowake 3,922]

Given what's been said in the past about their lack of desire to promote people on the bubble in Juryo with double digit records, we shouldn't be all too surprised that Akua was the one to get the shaft, but it's pretty jarring that even a half-rank difference by the numbers, which is usually meaningful, was completely ignored, because of the bias towards promoting people who were ranked higher.  In my opinion, it should actually work the exact opposite way, but my opinion doesn't matter.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

I guess it should also be noted somewhere for posterity that this banzuke doesn't set any precedents given its highly unprecedented origins?

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

I guess it should also be noted somewhere for posterity that this banzuke doesn't set any precedents given its highly unprecedented origins?

Unless it happens again next time. Which it could. Or worse.

Also, with the news about Isegahama, is it more likely that they removed him from leading the committee before the news dropped or that they held the announcement until after the banzuke was released to give him one last run at the job? I realize there are much bigger issues at play in that situation than how the banzuke is created, but for our specific purposes here, it seems like this might be relevant.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

9 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Unless it happens again next time. Which it could. Or worse.

Also, with the news about Isegahama, is it more likely that they removed him from leading the committee before the news dropped or that they held the announcement until after the banzuke was released to give him one last run at the job? I realize there are much bigger issues at play in that situation than how the banzuke is created, but for our specific purposes here, it seems like this might be relevant.

My reading of the situation is that it was only settled at this rijikai, which meant Isegahama was still nominally in charge last round, but you'll need @Akinomaki to be more authoritative on that.

[Akinomaki 39,798]

15 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Also, with the news about Isegahama, is it more likely that they removed him from leading the committee before the news dropped or that they held the announcement until after the banzuke was released to give him one last run at the job? I realize there are much bigger issues at play in that situation than how the banzuke is created, but for our specific purposes here, it seems like this might be relevant.

The NSK started to investigate after the victim phoned them on November 8th, but I don't think they did anything during the Kyushu basho or immediately after. Isegahama was still in office at the banzuke compilation on the last of November, but knew what was coming - we'll never know if his influence was diminished then, but at least he managed to keep Takarafuji in makuuchi.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I guess it should also be noted somewhere for posterity that this banzuke doesn't set any precedents given its highly unprecedented origins?

Well, people shouldn't assume that any banzuke sets any precedents, but that's not been stopping 'em.

[Gurowake 3,922]

3 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Well, people shouldn't assume that any banzuke sets any precedents, but that's not been stopping 'em.

Well, the idea is that each banzuke gives us a small window as to how the committee is thinking.  Each time they need to craft the banzuke based on the results as they happened, which may or may not resemble what's happened previous basho.  The most recent results required them to do something that was slightly unusual regardless of what they chose to do, so the idea is that we can't exactly use this as precedent that they'll promote people with records as good as or better than Wakamotoharu's and Meisei's to extra Koumusubi spots.  There is good reason to believe that they only did that because the alternatives were even worse (such as the banzuke I submitted for GTB). 

Similarly, I don't think we can say anything about 12 wins at M1 making Sekiwake automatically, but it's unclear as to the reason(s) why this promotion was made when Daieisho was not given a promotion to Sekiwake from the west side of the same rank with 1 more win and the yusho.  It may have been done to avoid 5 Komusubi and have the banzuke look nicer just as much as to prepare for a potential promotion to Ozeki.  It could have required both of those things, but we'll never know. 

What precedent has been set is that they will sometimes give an 8-7 the same rank in extreme circumstances, but they won't do the utter blasphemy that I thought they might and they weren't going to leave Abi down at M6 or whatever was required when neither that blasphemy nor extra sanyaku was done.  I definitely read the latter of the two of those right, but I (combined in some manner) underestimated their willingness to make extra sanyaku promotions and/or overestimated their willingness to solve the issue by demoting 8-7s when the sanyaku shrinks.

Edited December 26, 2022 by Gurowake

[Barutokai 62]

This post actually belongs to the PDY-Discussion Hatsu.

Since Ichinojo is banned from Hatsu at rank M7e it's highly likely that he will be demoted to Juryo in March:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=m7&form1_wins=0&form1_year=>2004

Statistically I expect Ichinojo to win the March Juryo-Yusho.

Mini-trivia: the last Hatsu M7e incumbent was Takayasu who also sat out the tournament but due to Covid.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

8 hours ago, Barutokai said:

This post actually belongs to the PDY-Discussion Hatsu.

Since Ichinojo is banned from Hatsu at rank M7e it's highly likely that he will be demoted to Juryo in March:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=m7&form1_wins=0&form1_year=>2004

Statistically I expect Ichinojo to win the March Juryo-Yusho.

 Mini-trivia: the last Hatsu M7e incumbent was Takayasu who also sat out the tournament but due to Covid.

Unless Asanoyama clears jūryō in one basho, he's also likely to be contending for the jūryō yūshō in March. 

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

14 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Unless Asanoyama clears jūryō in one basho, he's also likely to be contending for the jūryō yūshō in March. 

Who knew juryo could become so exciting?!

[maglor 122]

3 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Who knew juryo could become so exciting?!

Reminds me of this ultrastacked juryo banzuke