Seiyashi

Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Kyūshū 2022

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1 minute ago, Reonito said:

Thanks, some of those are pretty eye-opening, though I want to check who would've been the best candidate for over-demotion (like, were they absolutely safe in makuuchi, or a bit borderline?)

Like, there wasn't really anyone to over-demote when J1 Chiyotaikai didn't make it with 9-6.

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1 minute ago, Reonito said:

Thanks, some of those are pretty eye-opening, though I want to check who would've been the best candidate for over-demotion (like, were they absolutely safe in makuuchi, or a bit borderline?)

Just checking on the last one. The 13-2Y from J7. There was an M3 with a 2-13 record that could have been demoted by the numbers, but only went as far as M13. 

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5 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Thanks, some of those are pretty eye-opening, though I want to check who would've been the best candidate for over-demotion (like, were they absolutely safe in makuuchi, or a bit borderline?)

I suppose the Mitoryu one is one I can come up with without searching. Chiyonokuni was safe by the numbers (just) and could have been considered borderline, but was not demoted in favour of Mitoryu who went 12-3Y at J6 and that was only last year.

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2 hours ago, Reonito said:

If he loses out, Takarafuji picks up 2 more wins, and there are 3+ very strong promotion cases in Juryo, I don't think they'd have a choice, but I don't know what the unluckiest non-promotion from Juryo has been.

Setting aside past situations, the last juryo promotee would also likely have to calculate at least two ranks ahead of Okinoumi to push him down (makuuchi wrestlers seem to get ~1.5 ranks of favor, but I think it would take more to over-demote someone into juryo). Mitoryu calculated 2.5-3 ranks (I'm still not sure how they deal with half-ranks) ahead of Chiyonokuni, but Chiyonokuni hung on, so it may be effectively impossible to force someone into juryo if the math doesn't push them down there without some unbelievably unusual circumstances.

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2 hours ago, Sakura said:

The word is potential. It hasn't happened yet. Nothing is definite until it's definite. I don't think Atamifuji is winning out, and there is a good chance of having 3 rikishi with promotable record, but it hasn't happened yet.

Fair enough. I read "unsalvageable" as meaning "within Atamifuji's control", ie. he can save rank (or probably save rank) if he runs the table. But if you're just saying he hasn't been 100% doomed to juryo yet, then yeah, that's true.

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7 hours ago, Reonito said:
19 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

No changes on the makushita side. On the jūryō side, Takakentō, Shimazuumi, Rōga, and Gōnoyama all won to put some distance between themselves and the drop. First in the firing line is now Tsushimanada, who is one loss away from an MK and a probable drop, while Tokushōryū also failed to win today and is now also in peril if he doesn't win out. Shimazuumi has moved backwards in the demotion queue and is now joined by Kaishō, who unlike his east counterpart Chiyosakae failed to pick up a win today and needs two more to avoid being nominally demotable.

Interesting that Shiden and Shonannoumi are up in Juryo tomorrow, facing Shimazuumi and Gonoyama, respectively, while Asanoyama gets Ms10 Kamito.

Are you thinking Asanoyama is a sure up while those other two are doing exchange bouts?

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7 hours ago, Sakura said:
7 hours ago, Reonito said:

Thanks, some of those are pretty eye-opening, though I want to check who would've been the best candidate for over-demotion (like, were they absolutely safe in makuuchi, or a bit borderline?)

I suppose the Mitoryu one is one I can come up with without searching. Chiyonokuni was safe by the numbers (just) and could have been considered borderline, but was not demoted in favour of Mitoryu who went 12-3Y at J6 and that was only last year.

Situations like these are what makes me feel the need to build a more powerful search query off the DB, but I probably don't have quite enough technical skill and time to do that right now.

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Yūshō arasoi, Day 13

Makuuchi
11-2: M1e Takayasu
10-3: Ō1e Takakeisho, S1w Hōshōryū, M9w AbiM13w Ōhō
9-4: M15e Kagayaki, M16w Hiradoumi

Funny how things can change in a few days. Hōshōryū and Ōhō both lost today; the former to ōzeki Takakeishō who is technically a member of the new guard, but arguably has been the most stable member of makuuchi for quite a while now, and the latter to Takayasu, a rikishi on the wrong side of 30 and eternally chasing a yūshō. And arguably, inexperience was the root cause of both their losses: Hōshōryū allowed Takakeishō to play to his oshizumo strengths and never managed to close up, while Ōhō's early thrusts went too high against Takayasu's neck and didn't succeed in depriving Takayasu of a belt grip. The moment Takayasu got the belt grip, Ōhō was done for, and the uwatenage that followed looked almost casual.

And speaking of the yūshō, dare we dream? Takayasu is now alone atop the arasoi with all his sanyaku matches behind him, and only one win away from his best ever results. He faces Kagayaki tomorrow, against whom he has a good H2H of 3-1 from the days where Kagayaki was on the fringes of the joi, and it's unlikely that there is anyone stronger than Abi left in the division who's likely to give him trouble. Ōhō faces Takakeishō tomorrow - while a first time meeting, and perhaps oshizumo is more up Ōhō's street than the yotsu match he had today, I don't think anyone is realistically pipping Ōhō to beat Takakeishō. Meanwhile, Hōshōryū has Abi, which should be good news for rerailing the start of a shaky ōzeki run, since he has a very good 4-0 record against Abi, and all this year.

This set of torikumi means that if Takayasu wins tomorrow, he will have at most 2 3-loss rikishi chasing him, since all four of his chasers are matched against each other. He will also eliminate everyone else from the arasoi since the yūshō line will be no worse than 12-3 in that event. However, that also means that if he chokes (not an outside possibility given who we're talking about), we again get 3 rikishi leading the yūshō race on day 14, with at least 3 more chasing them (Kagayaki + the losers of the 10-3 bracket + Hiradoumi if he wins). With only 2 days to go, the yūshō line can be no worse than 11-4, mathematically eliminating everyone currently 8-5 or worse.

Jūryō
10-3: J6e Hokuseihō, J12w Ōshōma
9-4: J3e Tsurugishō, J5e Akua, J9e Daiamami, J11e Enhō
8-5: J3w Mitoryū, J13w Rōga

The new guard narrative is still very much alive and kicking in jūryō, though, with two young talents leading the arasoi - Miyagino's Hokuseihō and Naruto's Ōshōma. They've already fought each other on day 9, with that H2H going in favour of Hokuseihō. It would be a good story for the next few years of sumo if these two regularly butt heads in contention for the yūshō, they're young and strong enough for an attractive rivalry to develop (the younger, earnest, but slightly goofy Hokuseihō against the considerably suaver but older Ōshōma), and it doesn't hurt that they're from two of the powerhouse stables when it comes to strength of current recruiting.

That said, again as with makuuchi, the race can equally be blown wide open if both leaders lose tomorrow. Hokuseihō will get Daiamami, the only member of the chasing 9-3s that he can fight, while his stablemate Enhō has a chance to really help out here with a match against Ōshōma. Meanwhile, Tsurugishō and Akua get 4-9s in the form of Kaishō and Tokushōryū, respectively. If all the 9-3 chasers win, the 10-2/9-3 matchups mean that we get 6 rikishi on 10-3 with one day to go, and the chance of a madcap playoff.

With only two days to go and the worst yūshō line being 10-5, everyone currently on 7-6 or worse is eliminated. The tail end of the arasoi will be thinned out a bit, as Mitoryū and Rōga face each other tomorrow, but the result of their match is academic if Hokuseihō wins tomorrow, as that will eliminate all 5-loss rikishi as well.

Lower divisions
Makushita: Ms23e Tamashōhō (Kataonami) Y
Sandanme: Sd 228e Hitoshi (Oitekaze), Sd66w Kazuto (Tatsunami)
Jonidan: Jd60w Asashiyū (Takasago) Y
Jonokuchi: Jk15w Takerufuji (Isegahama) Y

Tamashōhō must have stolen his brother-in-law's yūshō good luck charm, considering Tamawashi's bad performance and his own uncharacteristic run. He's had a 7-0 before in sandanme, way back in 2014, but lost a playoff, and his career has been average ever since with a 6-1 two years ago being his best result in a sea of 2-5s, 3-4s, 4-3s, and 5-2s. At Ms23e, this should punt him up in the makushita joi (previous combinations of this rank-record combination have gone as high as Ms1/2) with a shot at sekitoridom. Either way, there's a fair bit to celebrate for the stable and the family.

Sandanme is the only unresolved division which will result in a playoff on senshūraku. Nishonoseki's Takahashi failed to overcome the slightly more experienced Hitoshi and missed out on the chance to get a third consecutive yūshō, but that in turn means that Kazuto, who lost to said Takahashi in a playoff two basho ago and had a 6-1 in jonidan last basho, might finally win a yūshō. 

Miyagino's Ōtani finally got his comeuppance, suffering the first defeat of his professional career to veteran Asashiyū returning from a long layoff. About time someone put dirt on him.

Meanwhile, someone else in Isegahama must also have stolen the good luck steroids in the chanko, being Takerufuji, who caps off his maiden basho with a yūshō. Considering what's happening to the rest of Isegahama in the upper divisions, it's nice to see the stable have some reason to celebrate what is otherwise a very awful basho for them.

Congratulations to all lower division yūshō winners; it certainly feels like it couldn't have happened to a better bunch.

Edited by Seiyashi
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Promotion/demotion picture, Day 13

Legend:
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku/joi

  0-0-13 Terunofuji Y  
(O) 10-3 Takakeishō O Shōdai 5-8 (X)
(1) 7-6 Wakatakakage S Hōshōryū 10-3 (O)
  S Mitakeumi 6-7 (2)
(X) 4-9 Tamawashi K Kiribayama 8-5 (O)
(X) 5-8 Tobizaru K Daieishō 6-7 (2)
(O) 11-2 Takayasu M1 Kotonowaka 8-5  
  7-6 Meisei M2 Ichinojō 2-11 (X)
(X) 3-10 Ura M3 Midorifuji 6-7  
  8-5 Wakamotoharu M4 Sadanoumi 6-7  
  6-7 Hokutofuji M5 Nishikifuji 8-5  
  6-7 Nishikigi M6 Ryūden 8-5  
  6-7 Endō M7 Myōgiryū 7-6  

Demotion queue: Tamawashi, Tobizaru, Daieishō, Mitakeumi
Promotion queue: Takayasu, Kotonowaka, Meisei, Wakamotoharu

Tamawashi, while having a dismal basho, did one good thing: he broke the cycle of ōzeki unlife that Shōdai is stuck in. Combined with wins by Wakatakakage and Mitakeumi, this leaves open the possibility that we will have 4 sekiwake next basho, with Shōdai joining the incumbents. Hōshōryū's loss today means he can score no better than 29 over the past three basho, although it's not entirely out of the question that a Kitanofuji promotion on 28 wins may occur now that Shōdai is a confirmed demotion and the long-term health of the remaining senior sanyaku is in doubt.

Kiribayama also lost today to end any classical hopes of promotion to sekiwake, as 11 wins is normally needed to force an extra slot. Hōshōryū and Shōdai speak for the two standard sekiwake slots, and KK komusubi are shafted in that situation as Abi knows from bitter experience. The other confirmed movement in this area is Tobizaru, who notched his eighth loss today against Sadanoumi. Pity; three of his five wins were against Takakeishō, Shōdai, and Wakatakakage. With Daieishō only one more loss away from demotion, this makes it possible that we will go 4 sekiwake and 2 komusubi, with Takayasu and Kiribayama as the two komusubi for next basho.

Either way, with Shōdai definitely demoted, Takayasu definitely promoted, two confirmed KKs and one sekiwake who can do no worse than 7-8, we are looking at at least a 7-man sanyaku next basho: Shōdai, Hōshōryu, Wakatakakage, Takayasu, and Kiribayama. Mitakeumi and Daieishō can still join with 1 and 2 more wins respectively, and Kotonowaka could also be a possible promotion with 10 wins, for a 10-man sanyaku with some combination of 8 junior sanyaku. We could see 2 sekiwake + 6 komusubi (Shōdai/Hōshōryū, Wakatakakage/Mitakeumi/Kiribayama/Takayasu/Daieishō/Kotonowaka), 3 sekiwake + 5 komusubi (Shōdai/Hōshōryū/Wakatakakage OR Mitakeumi, Mitakeumi OR Wakatakakage/Kiribayama/Takayasu/Daieishō/Kotonowaka), or 4 sekiwake + 4 komusubi (Shōdai/Hōshōryū/Wakatakakage/Mitakeumi, Takayasu/Kiribayama/Daieishō/Kotonowaka). We almost certainly won't see 5 sekiwake unless the committee decides Takayasu or Kiribayama, with potentially 13 wins from M1e or 10 wins from K1w, have done enough to force an extra slot, but this committee has screwed around with regular principles of torikumi making this basho that they just might, who knows?

For formality's sake, Meisei returns to the promotion queue on current record, but it's extremely unlikely that he, Wakamotoharu, Nishikifuji, or Ryūden make it this time round.

Makuuchi/jūryō

(2) 2-11 Takarafuji M8 Tochinoshin 6-7 (O)
(O) 6-7 Takanoshō M9 Abi 10-3 (O)
(O) 6-7 Aoiyama M10 Chiyoshōma 6-7 (O)
(O) 8-5 Ōnoshō M11 Kotoshōhō 6-7 (O)
(O) 7-6 Kotoekō M12 Chiyotairyū 2-6 (X)
(O) 7-6 Okinoumi M13 Ōhō 10-3 (O)
(O) 7-6 Ichiyamamoto M14 Azumaryū 7-6 (O)
(O) 9-4 Kagayaki M15 Atamifuji 3-10 (X)
(X) 0-13 Terutsuyoshi M16 Hiradoumi 9-4 (O)
(X) 5-8 Tōhakuryū J1 Chiyomaru 7-6 (21)
(X) 4-9 Churanoumi J2 Bushōzan 7-6 (2)
(O) 9-4 Tsurugishō J3 Mitoryū 8-5 (1)
(X) 3-10 Hidenoumi J4 Yutakayama 5-8 (X)
(1) 9-4 Akua J5 Chiyonokuni 6-7 (X)
(1) 10-3 Hokuseihō J6 Kitanowaka 4-9 (X)
(X) 5-8 Tochimusashi J7 Kinbōzan 7-6 (X)

Demotion queue: Chiyotairyū, Terutsuyoshi, Atamifuji, Takarafuji
Promotion queue: Tsurugishō, Hokuseihō, Mitoryū, Akua, Chiyomaru

Surely he's definitely demoted now? Atamifuji locked his 10th loss today to reach a nominal rank of M22, although he can't beat Terutsuyoshi who is on course to achieve a rare zenpai in makuuchi. Takarafuji has also yet to entirely remove himself from danger after another loss today; his lack of form makes it highly unlikely that he will be able to win out, and while he might stay with a 3-12, there are enough potentially strong records in jūryō that might do him in. 

Meanwhile, Hokuseihō took advantage of Mitoryū and Akua stalling today to jump ahead of them in the promotion queue, just behind Tsurugishō. 11-4 from J6 is promotable over higher-ranked but worse results, as we know from Nishikifuji's experience shortly before in Natsu 2022. Barring slumps from both current leaders, and late surges from everyone else to compensate, it seems likely that we'll see Tsurugishō have another crack at the top division, and Hokuseihō make his sekitori debut.

Jūryō/makushita

(O) 5-8 Shimanoumi J8 Kōtokuzan 7-6 (O)
(O) 9-4 Daiamami J9 Daishōhō 7-6 (O)
(O) 6-7 Chiyosakae J10 Kaishō 4-9 (2)
(O) 9-4 Enhō J11 Takakentō 6-7 (O)
(~) 4-9 Tokushōryū J12 Ōshōma 10-3 (O)
(1) 6-7 Shimazuumi J13 Rōga 8-5 (O)
(~) 5-8 Tsushimanada J14 Gōnoyama 7-6 (1)
(X) 3-4 Shiden Ms1 Shōnannoumi 5-2 (O)
(X) 3-4 Tsukahara Ms2 Fujiseiun 3-3 (~)
(~) 3-3 Tokihayate Ms3 Daiseiryu 2-5 (X)
(O) 6-1 Asanoyama Ms4 Asanowaka 0-7 (X)
(X) 2-5 Daishōmaru Ms5 Hakuyōzan 5-1 (1)

Demotion queue: Chiyotairyū, Tsushimanada, Tokushōryū, Gōnoyama, Kaishō
Promotion queue: Shōnnanoumi, Asanoyama, Hakuyōzan, Fujiseiun, Tokihayate

It's an interesting case where the promotion cases crystallise before the demotion cases. Other than the sekitori slot opened by Chiyotairyū's retirement, no one else is a confirmed demotion yet because they need to do worse than each other, whereas there are at least two, if not three promotion cases in upper makushita. Shōnnanoumi beat Gōnoyama to underline his credentials for a sekitori debut, while Asanoyama didn't let his loss on the last match day faze him. Hakuyōzan could yet almost certainly join them with one more win. Very few, if any, 6-1 Ms4s have been denied promotion (unless the banzuke committee are inclined to be bitchy about a disgraced ex-ōzeki), and 6-1 non-promotions from Ms5 are pretty uncommon in the modern era (about 1 in 8 - 5-2s are a lot dicier, about 1 in 2 or 1 in 3, though). Unless all imperilled in lower jūryō lose out and they win their last match, Fujiseiun and Tokihayate are distant fourth and fifth in the promotion queue with a maximum possible 4-3.

So there's going to be at least one demotion, but who? As things now stand, first in the firing line is Tsushimanada. He's MK at the last rank and while it is possible to stay in jūryō with a 7-8 from his rank, he needs at least one other scapegoat and maybe two if Hakuyōzan wins. In a case of "you don't need to outrun the bear, just whoever else is running from the bear", he might just save his rank if he wins out, Tokushōryū drops one (they're currently tied with a nominal rank of J17) in the closing days of the basho and Hakuyōzan loses. Even if Hakuyōzan wins, he might just be saved if Gōnoyama loses out to end with an unsalvageable MK, or if Kaishō goes 5-10 or worse to have a nominal rank of J15w.

The logic also works for other members of the demotion queue, as while a 7-8 from J14w is generally a demotion, Wakakoshō in Natsu 2004 was lucky to stay by the skin of his teeth despite 5 promotions from makushita, between a retirement and 4 double-digit MKs in lower jūryō. If his loss to Shōnnanoumi isn't counted against him (it's not a classical exchange bout as I understand it since Gōnoyama is not yet MK), Gōnoyama could lose out and still be saved by two of Tsushimanada, Kaishō, or Tokushōryū hitting double digit losses, combined with Fujiseiun and Tokihayate losing to remove any more promotion cases from the makushita joi. Heck, it also works for Hakuyōzan; even if he loses, if two members of the demotion queue bomb out, that's also good enough for him to be promoted, arguably.

Edited by Seiyashi
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Thanks. Probably a holdover of the messy thinking of how many he needs to stand a good chance, versus just getting enough to have a promotable record and leaving banzuke luck and his fellow colleagues in the promotion queue do what they may.

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12 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Are you thinking Asanoyama is a sure up while those other two are doing exchange bouts?

That wouldn't have made sense, as a win by Shonannoumi and a loss by Asanoyama would have definitely left Shonan ahead. They both won and are both going up; just curious matchmaking. 

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While this obviously won't happen, I'd note that an 0-15 result from Terutsuyoshi would leave his expected rank as J15, also known as Ms1.

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3 minutes ago, Reonito said:

That wouldn't have made sense, as a win by Shonannoumi and a loss by Asanoyama would have definitely left Shonan ahead. They both won and are both going up; just curious matchmaking. 

I wonder if it's something similar to the idea that a lower ranking rikishi a win behind a Yok doesn't have the "right" to face the Yok on day 15; maybe at Ms4 Asanoyama doesn't have the right to go up into Juryo again to force open a spot for himself.

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13 minutes ago, maglor said:

While this obviously won't happen, I'd note that an 0-15 result from Terutsuyoshi would leave his expected rank as J15, also known as Ms1.

Not if you grant a nominal border of a couple of ranks between makuuchi and jūryō as @Sumo Spiffy often mentions. Jives pretty well with the last time someone at the foot end of makuuchi had a 0-15/0-0-15: Ishiura went from M16e (when the banzuke ended at M17w) to J10, so about 3 ranks' worth of a buffer give or take?

Edited by Seiyashi
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18 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Not if you grant a nominal border between makuuchi and jūryō as @Sumo Spiffy often mentions.

I find that the easiest way to look at it is to do the math normally, then approximate how the committee will choose to soften the blow (or neuter the promotion, for those going up). That's why, if the math is close, we pretty much always see the wrestler who was in the division above favored over the one who was below, regardless of the direction of movement. Makushita promotees are basically always at the bottom of juryo for this reason, unless someone in juryo has to be demoted enough to force them beneath one or more promotees. (The same theory applies to juryo, but since they fight a full fifteen, they have more chances to push themselves higher up, e.g. Ryuden recently). Likewise, when Shimanoumi was 1-14, he landed at J1e even though by rights and math he should have been placed lower than that.

So, as you're both saying, there's not a chance in hell Terutsuyoshi actually gets dumped into makushita if he goes 0-15. If we assume, for the moment, that everyone in juryo finishes 1-1, then Tsushimanada and Tokushoryu drop, Shimazuumi is demoted to at least J13w, and someone else takes a bottom spot, either Kaisho or Hakuyozan. Teru will end up above them, at the very least, so that's J12w. Takakento would be 7-8 in this setup, and even though he would math out 2.5 ranks above Teru, I'm pretty certain he goes behind Teru as well. Gonoyama's 8-7, so he's also behind. This puts Teru at J11w.

After that, things get a little squirrely. For example, I don't think they would have a particular issue with doing an exact demotion for a 7-8 Chiyosakae and a 5-10 Kitanowaka, which would nudge Teru higher still, to J10w. But at this point we run into the issue of needing to see exactly what happens to know how all the puzzle pieces fit, so theoreticals and approximations get weird. It's enough to say that even at 0-15, I don't think Teru drops below J11w, and I'd put the range (even with two days to go) at J10e-J11w unless things break in some pretty specific ways to force a different outcome.

Edited by Sumo Spiffy

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20 minutes ago, maglor said:

I wonder if it's something similar to the idea that a lower ranking rikishi a win behind a Yok doesn't have the "right" to face the Yok on day 15; maybe at Ms4 Asanoyama doesn't have the right to go up into Juryo again to force open a spot for himself.

pretty sure they'll send Ms5 Hakuyozan up there on day 15 to try to do just that...

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Well Hakuyozan hasn't fought in Juryo yet.

But looking back there have been a decent amount of times a Ms3 or Ms4 has gotten to fight in Juryo twice, so it probably doesn't matter.

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1 hour ago, Reonito said:

pretty sure they'll send Ms5 Hakuyozan up there on day 15 to try to do just that...

Looking at the guys they're leaving out for Day 15, it seems like they're giving both Hakuyozan (all four other 5-1 guys are free to be paired up on Day 15) and Fujiseiun (all other twenty-two 3-3 guys in makushita have been put together in 11 pairs for Day 14, leaving him very lonely) a juryo run for senshuraku.

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4 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Looking at the guys they're leaving out for Day 15, it seems like they're giving both Hakuyozan (all four other 5-1 guys are free to be paired up on Day 15) and Fujiseiun (all other twenty-two 3-3 guys in makushita have been put together in 11 pairs for Day 14, leaving him very lonely) a juryo run for senshuraku.

I came here to say exactly that.  If not for the holiday yesterday I would've said it yesterday as well.  Though it was hard to see, if you had counted the number of rikishi before the first match of each number of wins, there was clearly a 5-1 and 3-3 that were odd men out, meaning the highest ranking one not already fighting was left back for Juryo.

My guess as to why Hakuyozan was chosen instead of Asanoyama was that the latter already fought in Juryo, and was really ranked too low to warrant having multiple matches in Juryo when there were other options, while Hakuyozan was not part of the original cycle of fill-in matches, but he's certainly a reasonable choice for an exchange match. 

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Depending on how many of the bubble sanyaku rikishi maintain their status, we might end up seeing them decide to promote anyone with a promotable record by the numbers to Komusubi, rather than have a 7-man sanyaku with an extreme amount of rikishi that need to be ranked in near the top of the maegashira heap.  That would make even Abi a potential candidate, though I would guess that they'd probably not consider anyone that didn't fight something resembling a joi schedule, but depending on the mess we're left with, I wouldn't totally discount it.

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4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Depending on how many of the bubble sanyaku rikishi maintain their status, we might end up seeing them decide to promote anyone with a promotable record by the numbers to Komusubi, rather than have a 7-man sanyaku with an extreme amount of rikishi that need to be ranked in near the top of the maegashira heap.  That would make even Abi a potential candidate, though I would guess that they'd probably not consider anyone that didn't fight something resembling a joi schedule, but depending on the mess we're left with, I wouldn't totally discount it.

If that happened, the only person I could theoretically see getting pushed up is Kotonowaka, and only then on 10-5. I agree that they'll want to avoid the clusterfk of going from ten to seven, but if Mitakeumi loses today, even though he should fight a completely beatable Tamawashi on the last day, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they fed him Nishikigi instead to further bump up the odds of him hitting seven wins.

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11 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I came here to say exactly that.  If not for the holiday yesterday I would've said it yesterday as well.  Though it was hard to see, if you had counted the number of rikishi before the first match of each number of wins, there was clearly a 5-1 and 3-3 that were odd men out, meaning the highest ranking one not already fighting was left back for Juryo.

My guess as to why Hakuyozan was chosen instead of Asanoyama was that the latter already fought in Juryo, and was really ranked too low to warrant having multiple matches in Juryo when there were other options, while Hakuyozan was not part of the original cycle of fill-in matches, but he's certainly a reasonable choice for an exchange match. 

And as I kind of suspected, Fujiseiun has been put in a de facto duel for sekitorihood with Tsushimanada - who survived just long enough against a hapless Hidenoumi to see the latter beach himself on the dohyo.

It feels like keeping 7-8 J14e as J14w has been the norm lately so the incumbent really has a shot.

I'm torn. I want Tsushimanada to stay but I don't want Fujiseiun to go out of the joi zone either, but there's no way this is happening. Argh.

Edited by Koorifuu

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27 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

And as I kind of suspected, Fujiseiun has been put in a de facto duel for sekitorihood with Tsushimanada - who survived just long enough against a hapless Hidenoumi to see the latter beach himself on the dohyo.

It feels like keeping 7-8 J14e as J14w has been the norm lately so the incumbent really has a shot.

I'm torn. I want Tsushimanada to stay but I don't want Fujiseiun to go out of the joi zone either, but there's no way this is happening. Argh.

I'm used to sure demotion for a makekoshi at the bottom of juryo on juryo debut, but in recent times it happened

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=J14&form1_wins=7&form1_losses=8&form1_debutd=on&form2_rank=Ji

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2 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

I'm used to sure demotion for a makekoshi at the bottom of juryo on juryo debut, but in recent times it happened

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=J14&form1_wins=7&form1_losses=8&form1_debutd=on&form2_rank=Ji

Oh, I thought there'd been more times, to be honest.

Ironically, Bushozan went on to have a solid, if unspectacular, juryo run that's still going on - and it looks like it might just continue in Hatsu, as he's struggling to drive home his promotion bid.

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