Seiyashi

Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Kyūshū 2022

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Apologies to the slightly late starting of the topic this basho - I didn't realise it was started on day 10 the last time I did it. (Inastateofconfusion...)

As usual, subject to the caveat that this is just the framework/scaffolding for the promotion/demotion/yūshō discussion, and hopefully the usual luminaries can chip in without needing to do the busywork of formatting etcetc.

Yūshō arasoi, Day 11

Makuuchi
10-1: S1w Hōshōryū
9-2: M1e Takayasu, M13w Ōhō
8-3: Ō1e Takakeishō, M5w Nishikifuji, M9w Abi, M15e Kagayaki

Hōshōryū and Ōhō entered today neck and neck, but only the former won. Dispatching a lacklustre Mitakeumi by simple yorikiri, Hōshōryū's 10-1 score is his best since becoming sekitori and his first time achieving kachikoshi by Day 9, with 8 kimarite in 10 wins repeating only uwatenage and today's yorikiri.

Hōshōryū's campaign to secure the yūshō will take him through old high school rival Ōhō tomorrow, then presumably the remaining unfought sanyaku Takakeishō, Wakatakakage, and Kiribayama in some order over the last 3 days. Complicating matters is the fact that he has at best an equal record against the four opponents listed above: 1-2 vs Ōhō, 2-5 vs Takakeishō, 3-7 v Wakatakakage, and 5-4 v Kiribayama, and he had better hope nerves (Takayasu says hi), or Uncle, don't act up either. In his favour is the fact that his opponents seem to have issues of their own. Ōhō is by now known for choking in the closing days of a basho, and Takakeishō and Wakatakakage are not looking particularly hot by the eye test. He can also hope that his momentum builds unstoppably heading into senshuraku, as sometimes can happen.

Speaking of nerves, Takayasu managed to stay in the chase by dispatching Nishikifuji, to draw level with Ōhō, who lost to Abi. Takakeishō beat Hokutofuji and Kagayaki beat Chiyoshōma to round off the arasoi. Honourable mentions go to Nishikifuji, who despite his loss is still participating in the arasoi as late as day 11 in his junior basho, and Abi, whose strong performance gives hope that his surgery has managed to cure what ails him and return him to his form this time last year, when he returned to makuuchi.

Jūryō
9-2: J5e Akua
8-3: J3e Tsurugishō, J6e Hokuseihō, J11e Enhō, J12w Ōshōma
7-4: J3w Mitoryū, J9e Daiamami

Anyone foresee Akua leading up the jūryō race at this stage? Either way, the flying horse from Ibaraki has had the best basho of his sekitori career ever, dispatching Tsurugishō today to stand alone atop the leaderboard. He faces chaser Ōshōma, who is finally getting things in gear in his third sekitori basho (the first being derailed by COVID and the second by possible aftereffects or injury), for the first time tomorrow.

Rounding out the chase group are the Miyagino pair of Hokuseihō and Enhō. It's no surprise to see Hokuseihō in the arasoi, as he has been for the past two basho, but seeing his diminuitive stablemate in it this late certainly is a lot rarer. Enhō is having his best basho in almost a year, and looks on course to replicate his only sekitori DD at the similar rank of J11w in March this year - about time too, as he doesn't have much space between him and the drop in the event of a bad basho. As stablemates, the pair cannot face each other, and depending on how things go, could help each other to a playoff.

Mitoryū and Daiamami finish off the leaderboard with wins today against Yutakayama and Tsushimanada respectively. Other than the aforementioned Ōshōma v Akua match, there are no intra-arasoi matches, so we could see all the same names back here again if Akua wins.

Lower divisions
Makushita: Ms23e Tamashōhō (Kataonami), Ms41w Mineyaiba (Shikoroyama)
Sandanme: Sd 228e Hitoshi (Oitekaze), Sd43w Takahashi (Nishonoseki), Sd66w Kazuto (Tatsunami)
Jonidan: Jd14e Ōtani (Miyagino), Jd60w Asashiyū (Takasago)
Jonokuchi: Jk15w Takerufuji (Isegahama)

For the second basho in a row, ex-ōzeki Asanoyama fails to make it into the makushita finals, being somewhat distractedly dispatched by makushita journeyman Tamashōhō. He faces fellow high-sandanme/low-makushita denizen Mineyaiba for the makushita yūshō on day 13, which would raise the incentive of a treat for two rikishi whose careers would otherwise be rather unremarkable.

In sandanme, we have a trio of 6-0s. Takahashi and Kazuto are only in their third basho, having stormed up the ranks with 6-1s and 7-0s in the lower two divisions, while Hitoshi is a bit more complicated: he appears to be a lower-division-thrashing prospect, but on top of having something of a three-basho hiatus earlier this year, it seems that he only can score 5-2s or 7-0s - take that however you will.

No surprise that Miyagino's brute Ōtani is in the jonidan yūshō race, although perhaps for the first time he faces opposition of some quality - one-time sekitori Asashiyū, who was good enough to make it to the makushita joi twice, and even cross the line into jūryō once, before getting derailed almost completely by injury. 

Isegahama's new recruit Takerufuji stands alone atop jonokuchi, having surprisingly defeated Kyokutaisei on a comeback. He will likely face another 5-1 to decide the yūshō, which opens the possibility of a 6-1 playoff on senshūraku.

Edited by Seiyashi
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Promotion/demotion picture, Day 10

Far be it from me to improve on an institution, but I'm trying out something this time - the concept of a promotion/demotion queue that roughly gives an idea of who is in line to go up or down, as the results currently stand. The queues are to be read from left to right - the first in queue will be first to be demoted/promoted, as the case may be. Bolded names are near-surefire movements.

Legend:
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku/joi

  0-0-11 Terunofuji Y      
(O) 8-3 Takakeishō O Shōdai 5-6 (3)
(2) 6-5 Wakatakakage S Hōshōryū 10-1 (O)
      S Mitakeumi 4-7 (X/3)
(X) 3-8 Tamawashi K Kiribayama 7-4 (1)
(3) 5-6 Tobizaru K Daieishō 5-6 (3)
(O) 9-2 Takayasu M1 Kotonowaka 7-4 (3)
  6-5 Meisei M2 Ichinojō 2-9 (X)
(X) 2-9 Ura M3 Midorifuji 6-5  
  6-5 Wakamotoharu M4 Sadanoumi 5-6  
  6-5 Hokutofuji M5 Nishikifuji 8-3 (~?)
  5-6 Nishikigi M6 Ryūden 7-4  

Demotion queue: Tamawashi, Mitakeumi, Daieishō, Tobizaru
Promotion queue: Takayasu, Kotonowaka, Meisei, Midorifuji

Let's get the hopeless cases and obvious movements out of the way. Mitakeumi has missed his 10 win target to immediately reascend to ōzeki, and is for all intents and purposes now just a sekiwake. After suffering his seventh loss to Hōshōryū, he must win out to keep rank, lose no more than 1 to drop to komusubi at least, or else fall out of sanyaku altogether. He's at least in a better position than Tamawashi, who actually has an outright MK at komusubi (being one more loss from one rank below), guaranteeing a drop to maegashira next basho. 

While Tobizaru and Daieishō are nominally in the demotion queue, the next worst-faring of the sanyaku are actually not in that bad a position yet. They need 3 wins out of 4 to hold rank, and while I don't think both of them will do so, they're still at least not yet an automatic demotion like Tamawashi will be.

The front runner for Tamawashi's vacated komusubi slot will be none other than his runner up from last basho, Takayasu. Like Tobizaru last basho, Takayasu has gotten more than a minimum KK and should be undeniable for a sanyaku spot this time. We might be in for another round of multiple komusubi if the dice fall just right (e.g. Mitakeumi and Wakatakakage 7-8, both of the Oitekaze pair holding rank), but it's too early to sort out the various permutations with clarity just yet.

Besides Takayasu, no one has yet guaranteed a sanyaku berth, even were there to be space. Kotonowaka needs at least one more win to be technically eligible, but 8-7 or 9-6 M1w going to M1e is not unprecedented when there's a sanyaku logjam, the latest victim being Hokutofuji in Nagoya-Aki 2019. 10 wins would make it really difficult for the banzuke committee if there isn't a lower sanyaku meltdown, so that's presumably the target Kotonowaka needs to start working towards. Rather distantly behind him are the KK-trending Meisei and Midorifuji, although those are, like their demotion counterparts, unlikely to be part of a sanyaku-joi exchange, and they would need to win out to have a shot without a mass departure from sanyaku.

As a footnote, Takakeishō secured his KK to ensure we at least have 2 full non-kadoban ōzeki next banzuke if you include yokozuna-ōzeki Terunofuji, and Shōdai won to give himself some breathing room to clear kadoban. Should Shōdai fail to clear kadoban, and assuming Wakatakakage does not get demoted, he would fall to S2e on the next banzuke.

Makuuchi/jūryō

(3) 1-10 Takarafuji M8 Tochinoshin 5-6 (O)
(O) 4-7 Takanoshō M9 Abi 8-3 (O)
(1) 4-7 Aoiyama M10 Chiyoshōma 4-7 (1)
(O) 7-4 Ōnoshō M11 Kotoshōhō 6-5 (O)
(O) 6-5 Kotoekō M12 Chiyotairyū 2-6 (X)
(1) 5-6 Okinoumi M13 Ōhō 9-2 (O)
(1?) 6-5 Ichiyamamoto M14 Azumaryū 6-5 (1?)
(O) 8-3 Kagayaki M15 Atamifuji 3-8 (4)
(X) 0-11 Terutsuyoshi M16 Hiradoumi 7-4 (1)
(4) 4-7 Tōhakuryū J1 Chiyomaru 5-6 (4)
(4~) 4-7 Churanoumi J2 Bushōzan 6-5 (3?)
(1) 8-3 Tsurugishō J3 Mitoryū 7-4 (2)
(X) 2-9 Hidenoumi J4 Yutakayama 4-7 (X)
(1) 9-2 Akua J5 Chiyonokuni 6-5 (4)
(3) 8-3 Hokuseihō J6 Kitanowaka 3-8 (X)
(X) 5-6 Tochimusashi J7 Kinbōzan 6-5 (X)

Demotion queue: Chiyotairyū*, Terutsuyoshi, Atamifuji, Takarafuji
Promotion queue: Tsurugishō, Akua, Mitoryū, Hokuseihō/Bushōzan

Terutsuyoshi's disastrous record and Chiyotairyū's retirement open up at least two slots in makuuchi. The next person in danger in makuuchi is shinnyūmaku Atamifuji, who seems to have had his confidence beaten out of him. Maybe there's only so much good luck going around Isegahama stable, and Nishikifuji, Midorifuji, and Takerufuji have yoinked it all for now. He must win out to fall gently; one more loss would make him a danger from a very strong jūryō record (e.g. a 9-6 Chiyomaru or 10-5 Bushōzan), and even Isegahama won't be able to save him from a 5-10 or worse.

One more person Isegahama might be called upon to save is his most senior wrestler by age, veteran Takarafuji, who's had a slightly better basho than Terutsuyoshi but only just. He's high enough that a 3-12 would probably save his skin, especially if Atamifuji is pushed first, but any worse and he is likewise in danger from a strong jūryō record, so he'd like a 4-11 to be really safe (not that he's likely to get it the way he's been wrestling). This also is probably a good place to mention a potential sanyaku shrinkage next basho if enough rikishi fall out of it, which might give him a bit more of a margin for error depending on whether M17 or even M18 reappears.

On the flip side of the borderline, while Tsurugishō and Akua are currently first in line for promotions, they may yet be displaced should Chiyomaru and Bushōzan either win out or drop at most 1. Both of them need 1 more win to be ranked nominally J0 or better, and that would really help cement their place in the promotion queue. Mitoryū would like 2 wins, and both Hokuseihō and Bushōzan would like 3 - the former has the superior record and side, whereas the latter has the superior rank. There are also a number of other wrestlers who would be nominally promotable if they win out, and/or could sneak in a promotion with a win out and some luck, but it's jūryō, who are we kidding?

Jūryō/makushita

(1) 4-7 Shimanoumi J8 Kōtokuzan 6-5 (O)
(O) 7-4 Daiamami J9 Daishōhō 6-5 (O)
(1) 4-7 Chiyosakae J10 Kaishō 4-7 (1)
(O) 8-3 Enhō J11 Takakentō 5-6 (1)
(3) 4-7 Tokushōryū J12 Ōshōma 8-3 (O)
(3) 4-7 Shimazuumi J13 Rōga 6-5 (1)
(3) 5-6 Tsushimanada J14 Gōnoyama 6-5 (2)
(1) 3-3 Shiden Ms1 Shōnannoumi 4-2 (1)
(X) 2-4 Tsukahara Ms2 Fujiseiun 3-3 (~)
(~) 3-3 Tokihayate Ms3 Daiseiryu 2-4 (X)
(1) 5-1 Asanoyama Ms4 Asanowaka 0-6 (X)
(X) 2-4 Daishōmaru Ms5 Hakuyōzan 5-1 (~)
(~) 4-2 Chiyonoō Ms6 Tochikamiyama 3-2 (X)

Demotion queue: Chiyotairyū*, Shimazuumi, Tokushōryū, Tsushimanada, Gōnoyama
Promotion queue: Shōnannoumi, Asanoyama, Shiden, Hakuyōzan. Fujiseiun

Amazingly for this stage in the basho, there isn't any clear demotion from jūryō yet. More amazingly, even the most imperilled don't need to win out to save themselves - yet. They've even got the bonus of some leeway in the sekitori ranks thanks to Chiyotairyū's retirement, which means one makushita rikishi can go up without forcing a jūryō rikishi down.

Shimazuumi and Tokushōryū both have 4-7 records, and need to win out for absolute safety, but seeing as they're J13e and J12e, even a 7-8 isn't the end of the road. 6-9s would put them in severe trouble from Shōnannoumi and Asanoyama, currently the frontrunners in the makushita promotion.

What would be more interesting is if there were no demotions from jūryō. In Aki 2017, a 4-3 Ms1w Kitataiki got shafted in favour of 4-3 Ms1e Takagenji and 6-1 Ms3e Masunoshō (now Takanoshō) when only two slots opened in jūryō. If something similar happens here, but with only one slot available from Chiyotairyū's retirement, a 6-1 Asanoyama would be a much more compelling case compared to a 4-3 Shōnnanoumi, although Asanoyama is one rank lower than Masunoshō when he bypassed Kitataiki.

Also not entirely out of danger are the jūryō-jiri pair of Tsushimanada and Gōnoyama, who will be in trouble if they go MK, although Tsushimanada might be saved with a 7-8 and Gōnoyama is at least KK-trending at the moment. The frontrunners to replace them are a 3-3 Ms1e Shiden and 5-1 Ms5w Hakuyōzan, although Fujiseiun could cut in line if he KKs and Hakuyōzan doesn't win his last match.

EDIT: Amendments suggested by Sakura below incorporated, being changes to Takarafuji, Tsushimanada, and Churanoumi's targets.
EDIT 2: Implications of Chiyotairyū's retirement on makushita updated.
EDIT 3: As jūryō and makushita aren't surefire promotions yet, bold indications have been removed.

Edited by Seiyashi
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Great work, but I'd put Takarafuji at (3) even though a 3-12 might well be fine. I'd always go for the number to guarantee safety in brackets. On that note Tsushimanada shouls be (3). 8-7s from J2 have been promoted many times, but a 9-6 is a normal promotable record so Churanoumi should require banzuke luck as well as winning his remaining 4 bouts.

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1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Amazingly for this stage in the basho, there isn't any clear demotion from jūryō yet.

 Are you counting Chiyotairyu's retirement for an open spot in Juryo?  It's unclear.

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Just now, Gurowake said:

 

 Are you counting Chiyotairyu's retirement for an open spot in Juryo?  It's unclear.

Good point - I'd forgotten clean about it. Because I'm a bit woozy from having been jabbed today, let me just check - that means there's a promotion from makushita without a corresponding demotion from jūryō, in which case Shōnannoumi looks to be the first beneficiary, right?

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1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

Good point - I'd forgotten clean about it. Because I'm a bit woozy from having been jabbed today, let me just check - that means there's a promotion from makushita without a corresponding demotion from jūryō, in which case Shōnannoumi looks to be the first beneficiary, right?

You should treat Chiyotairyu as being demoted from both Makuuchi and Juryo, since that's effectively what's happening.

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2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Shōnannoumi looks to be the first beneficiary,

I wouldn't call it 100% guaranteed that he'd be promoted, and you did something similar for Juryo where you listed the top of the queue as definite promotions even though they probably aren't, just because they were at the top of the queue and there were definite open spots.  Shonannoumi may be most likely the top of the queue (Asanoyama *might* edge him out if push came to shove based on sekitori experience, but I wouldn't put that probability above 50%, even assuming the results are such that it might be considered), but it's not certain that another spot will open up, and he can still be passed by Shiden.  Takayasu by contrast is a definite promotion.  Maybe you meant something different with the bolds?

 

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4 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

You should treat Chiyotairyu as being demoted from both Makuuchi and Juryo, since that's effectively what's happening.

Noted. Updated.

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5 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I wouldn't call it 100% guaranteed that he'd be promoted, and you did something similar for Juryo where you listed the top of the queue as definite promotions even though they probably aren't, just because they were at the top of the queue and there were definite open spots.  Shonannoumi may be most likely the top of the queue (Asanoyama *might* edge him out if push came to shove based on sekitori experience, but I wouldn't put that probability above 50%, even assuming the results are such that it might be considered), but it's not certain that another spot will open up, and he can still be passed by Shiden.  Takayasu by contrast is a definite promotion.  Maybe you meant something different with the bolds?

 

Ok I think I need to be more consistent internally. I would argue the bolds are those who have nominally crossed their "division-0" rank based on their record, but then that's not consistent with the sanyaku/joi, so yeah I'll remove the bolds from the juryo and makushita exchange pictures for now.

So it's probably safest if the bolds are reserved for definite promotions where it's not possible that someone else cuts in the queue, like KK at the very top rank - and of course this gets cleaned up as we go? Otherwise frontrunners just remain that - frontrunners, who can be overtaken if results don't go their way.

Edited by Seiyashi
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2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

So it's probably safest if the bolds are reserved for definite promotions where it's not possible that someone else cuts in the queue, like KK at the very top rank - and of course this gets cleaned up as we go? Otherwise frontrunners just remain that - frontrunners, who can be overtaken if results don't go their way.

I think this is a good approach.

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The biggest question at present for me is how many Komusubis will be on the next banzuke, and who they will be.  That picture will become much clearer in the next several days, but at present the odds wold favor just two: Kiribayama and Takayasu.

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7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Also not entirely out of danger are the jūryō-jiri pair of Tsushimanada and Gōnoyama

I've got the two J10's also mathematically needing 2 more wins, especially if there's strong promotion pressure from Makushita. Demotions from J10 with 5-10 (which nominally = J15/Ms1) are far from unusual

Edited by Reonito
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9 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

The front runner for Tamawashi's vacated komusubi slot will be none other than his runner up from last basho, Takayasu.

I meant to comment on this earlier but there were more things to talk about more relevant.

With 4 Komusubi currently, it's hard to say that Tamawashi is vacating a Komusubi slot.  Takayasu will get one (or a promotion to Sekiwake potentially) by virtue of his record so far regardless.  There will almost certainly be many rikishi that will be forced to be ranked at Sekiwake and Komusubi, and probably at least 2 each.  The way that's most likely to not happen in my view is Hoshoryu getting promoted.  If he stays at Sekiwake, it would take a pretty specific set of results to not get enough lower sanyaku forced into the slots and leave hanging anyone whose record isn't forcing.  Of course, we have no idea at what rank each record is forcing, as there is a general lack of records between the forcing M1es and yusho wins and the merely good results that often resulted in nonpromotions in years past. 

Edited by Gurowake
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Yūshō arasoi, Day 12

Makuuchi
10-2: S1w Hōshōryū, M1e Takayasu, M13w Ōhō
9-3: Ō1e Takakeishō, M9w Abi, M15e Kagayaki
8-4: K1w Kiribayama, M5w Nishikifuji, M11e Ōnoshō, M16w Hiradoumi

Nerves? Or an old rival having his number? Whichever way it was, Hōshōryū let Takayasu and Ōhō back into the lead with a hatakikomi loss to the latter. Takakeishō defeated Nishikifuji to send the Isegahama man one back in the arasoi, but Hōshōryū's loss meant that Ōnoshō, Kiribayama, and Hiradoumi, who all secured their KK today, are nominally part of the arasoi. Not a bad showing for the Sakaigawa rikishi, who stayed in the top division by the skin of his teeth last time, but should be going a fair ways up if he doesn't drop a lot more matches.

There are a lot of intra-arasoi matches tomorrow that should see this leaderboard thinned out a bit. Because Takayasu and Ōhō are due a match tomorrow, there will be at least one 11-2 leader by tomorrow. Not so good news for Takakeishō, who faces Hōshōryū and has a chance to claw level with him, but still won't be in the lead even if he wins, or Abi and Kagayaki, who face each other to guarantee one of them a 10-3 record as well. Curiously enough, all of the 8-4 crowd are facing 6-6 opponents tomorrow: Kiribayama, Nishikfuji, Ōnoshō and Hiradoumi are facing Meisei, Kotoshōhō, Okinoumi and Endō respectively.

Jūryō
9-3: J5e Akua, J3e Tsurugishō, J6e Hokuseihō, J12w Ōshōma
8-4: J11e Enhō, J3w Mitoryū, J9e Daiamami
7-5: J2w Bushōzan, J8w Kōtokuzan, J9w Daishōhō, J13w Rōga, J14w Gōnoyama

It was a pretty similar story in jūryō today, as erstwhile sole leader Akua fell to a chaser, Ōshōma, to be dragged level with a whole bunch of other rikishi. The only arasoi member from yesterday not to take advantage was Enhō; Mitoryū and Daiamami both won to go to one behind, and a whole bunch of KK-seeking rikishi bring up the arasoi at 7-4, including Enhō's vanquisher, Gōnoyama. Not a bad showing for J13w Rōga on his sekitori debut, and which result should ensure at least one more basho in jūryō. The same can't be said of Rōga's fellow sekitori debutant, Tsushimanada, who is 5-7 and one loss away from a probable demotion.

And again as with makuuchi, we have Tsurugishō v Ōshōma tomorrow, so there will be at least one 10-3. Akua takes on Rōga, while Hokuseihō has Daishōhō. The last intra-arasoi match is Enhō v Mitoryū, so one of them will definitely fall to 8-5 tomorrow.

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Promotion/demotion picture, Day 12

Legend:
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku/joi

  0-0-12 Terunofuji Y  
(O) 9-3 Takakeishō O Shōdai 5-7 (3)
(2) 6-6 Wakatakakage S Hōshōryū 10-2 (O)
  S Mitakeumi 5-7 (3)
(X) 3-9 Tamawashi K Kiribayama 8-4 (O)
(3) 5-7 Tobizaru K Daieishō 6-6 (2)
(O) 10-2 Takayasu M1 Kotonowaka 7-5  
  6-6 Meisei M2 Ichinojō 2-10 (X)
(X) 2-10 Ura M3 Midorifuji 6-6  
  7-5 Wakamotoharu M4 Sadanoumi 5-7  
  6-6 Hokutofuji M5 Nishikifuji 8-4  
  5-7 Nishikigi M6 Ryūden 7-5  
  6-6 Endō M7 Myōgiryū 6-6  

Demotion queue: Tamawashi, Tobizaru, Daieishō/Mitakeumi
Promotion queue: Takayasu, Kotonowaka, Nishikifuji, Wakamotoharu

The sanyaku picture actually clears up somewhat now. Shōdai must win out to avoid demotion to sekiwake, and Mitakeumi must likewise do so to maintain his customary sekiwake position. One more loss by Mitakeumi will drop him to komusubi, and more losses might drop him out of sanyaku altogether, sharing the same fate as Tamawashi, who lost again today to make it almost certain that he'll be demoted.

It was a question of some contention yesterday as to how many junior sanyaku we were going to see in Hatsu next year. Hōshōryū and Kiribayama are locks, with the former retaining his sekiwake spot (outside of a surprise panic ōzeki promotion) and Kiribayama at least retaining his komusubi spot. It's possible that he is made shin-sekiwake although with Wakatakakage, Mitakeumi, and Shōdai potentially also needing a sekiwake spot, Kiribayama must win out to meet the classical 11-win threshold for the forcing of an extra sanyaku spot. As for komusubi spots, Tamawashi and Takayasu are likely to exchange sanyaku status, and Tobizaru is only one more loss away from dropping out of sanyaku, while Daieishō could take 2 more to keep his rank, and Wakatakakage and Mitakeumi might need komusubi spots if they fail to get the necessary 8 wins.

There are no intra-sanyaku matchups left which are mutually annihilatory i.e. where both rikishi are fighting each other for a sanyaku spot. Tobizaru and Daieishō are stablemates and cannot fight each other, and they've both already fought Mitakeumi and Wakatakakage. So it's possible that they might yet secure the necessary wins independently of each other. In a "worst" case scenario, we might see up to as many as 6 komusubi and 2 sekiwake (but only one ōzeki and Terunofuji as yokozuna-ōzeki): Shōdai drops to sekiwake, Wakatakakage and Mitakeumi drop to komusubi with 7-8s, Tobizaru and Daieishō hold rank, and Takayasu takes Tamawashi's sanyaku berth if not exact rank. In a "best" case scenario, Shodai and Wakatakakage hold rank, Mitakeumi does badly enough to drop out of sanyaku altogether with 9 losses, and both Tobizaru and Daieishō MK; that would leave us with a slim 7-man sanyaku for the first time since the start of this year. The outcome is more likely to be somewhere in between; my money is either on 3 komusubi and 3 sekiwake or the existing 3 sekiwake and 4 komusubi.

That logjam means it's unlikely that any other joi members will make it into sanyaku. All the front runners from yesterday, Kotonowaka, Meisei, and Midorifuji, lost, arguably removing any outside chance that they might score a promotion.

Makuuchi/jūryō

(2) 2-10 Takarafuji M8 Tochinoshin 5-7 (O)
(O) 5-7 Takanoshō M9 Abi 9-3 (O)
(O) 5-7 Aoiyama M10 Chiyoshōma 5-7 (O)
(O) 8-4 Ōnoshō M11 Kotoshōhō 6-6 (O)
(O) 7-5 Kotoekō M12 Chiyotairyū 2-6 (X)
(O) 6-6 Okinoumi M13 Ōhō 10-2 (O)
(O) 7-5 Ichiyamamoto M14 Azumaryū 7-5 (O)
(O) 9-3 Kagayaki M15 Atamifuji 3-9 (X)
(X) 0-12 Terutsuyoshi M16 Hiradoumi 8-4 (O)
(X) 4-8 Tōhakuryū J1 Chiyomaru 6-6 (3)
(X) 4-8 Churanoumi J2 Bushōzan 7-5 (2)
(O) 9-3 Tsurugishō J3 Mitoryū 8-4 (1)
(X) 2-10 Hidenoumi J4 Yutakayama 4-8 (X)
(1) 9-3 Akua J5 Chiyonokuni 6-6 (X)
(2) 9-3 Hokuseihō J6 Kitanowaka 3-9 (X)
(X) 5-7 Tochimusashi J7 Kinbōzan 6-6 (X)

Demotion queue: Chiyotairyū, Terutsuyoshi, Atamifuji, Takarafuji, Okinoumi
Promotion queue: Tsurugishō, Mitoryū, Bushōzan, Akua, Hokuseihō

Something appears seriously wrong at some part of Isegahama. Terutsuyoshi and Atamifuji are sure to be demoted next basho with unsalvageable records at the foot of the division. Takarafuji managed to salvage one more win today, but he would like 2 more for absolute safety.

Most other people in danger from yesterday managed to remove themselve with the requisite win. That list includes the M10 pair of Aoiyama and Chiyoshōma, Ichiyamamoto, Azumaryū, and Hiradoumi - the last being an outright KK and therefore absolutely safe. The only potentially borderline result is Okinoumi: he won to ensure a result of no worse than 6-9, which generally stays in makuuchi especially if M17 makes a reappearance with a shrunken sanyaku, but Sōkokurai got demoted with a 6-9 from M13w when the division ended at M16e and there were three double digit records in upper jūryō.

That's not entirely out of the question yet, since there are three 9-3s in promotion range in jūryō, and there might yet be more promotable records if some of Chyomaru, Bushōzan, and Mitoryū win the requisite amounts of bouts.

Jūryō/makushita

(1) 4-8 Shimanoumi J8 Kōtokuzan 7-5 (O)
(O) 8-4 Daiamami J9 Daishōhō 7-5 (O)
(1) 5-7 Chiyosakae J10 Kaishō 4-8 (2)
(O) 8-4 Enhō J11 Takakentō 6-6 (O)
(3) 4-8 Tokushōryū J12 Ōshōma 9-3 (O)
(2) 5-7 Shimazuumi J13 Rōga 7-5 (O)
(3) 5-7 Tsushimanada J14 Gōnoyama 7-5 (1)
(1) 3-3 Shiden Ms1 Shonannoumi 4-2 (1)
(X) 2-4 Tsukahara Ms2 Fujiseiun 3-3 (~)
(~) 3-3 Tokihayate Ms3 Daiseiryu 2-4 (X)
(1) 5-1 Asanoyama Ms4 Asanowaka 0-6 (X)
(X) 2-4 Daishōmaru Ms5 Hakuyōzan 5-1 (~)

Demotion queue: Chiyotairyū*, Tsushimanada, Tokushōryū, Shimazuumi, Kaishō
Promotion queue: Shōnannoumi, Asanoyama, Shiden, Hakuyōzan, Fujiseiun

No changes on the makushita side. On the jūryō side, Takakentō, Shimazuumi, Rōga, and Gōnoyama all won to put some distance between themselves and the drop. First in the firing line is now Tsushimanada, who is one loss away from an MK and a probable drop, while Tokushōryū also failed to win today and is now also in peril if he doesn't win out. Shimazuumi has moved backwards in the demotion queue and is now joined by Kaishō, who unlike his east counterpart Chiyosakae failed to pick up a win today and needs two more to avoid being nominally demotable.

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9 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I meant to comment on this earlier but there were more things to talk about more relevant.

With 4 Komusubi currently, it's hard to say that Tamawashi is vacating a Komusubi slot.  Takayasu will get one (or a promotion to Sekiwake potentially) by virtue of his record so far regardless.  There will almost certainly be many rikishi that will be forced to be ranked at Sekiwake and Komusubi, and probably at least 2 each.  The way that's most likely to not happen in my view is Hoshoryu getting promoted.  If he stays at Sekiwake, it would take a pretty specific set of results to not get enough lower sanyaku forced into the slots and leave hanging anyone whose record isn't forcing.  Of course, we have no idea at what rank each record is forcing, as there is a general lack of records between the forcing M1es and yusho wins and the merely good results that often resulted in nonpromotions in years past. 

With at least 9 losses now, Tamawashi ought to be forced down. I don't see Takayasu getting a sekiwake slot unless a relatively specific scenario of Mitakeumi and Wakatakakage going MK, Shōdai erasing kadoban with a KK, Kiribayama losing out, and Takayasu winning out, and Daieishō/Tobizaru not getting a KK happens; that would result in 2 sekiwake and 2-3 komusubi depending on how badly Mitaekumi and Wakatakakage do:

S1e: Hōshōryū, S1w: Takayasu
K1e: Kiribayama, K1w: Wakatakakage
K2e: Mitakeumi

In that above line up it's arguable that Kiribayama and Takayasu ought to be swapped, really. My head is killing me now so I'd rather not do the query, but how often does a KK komusubi get leapfrogged to the sekiwake spot by a better-scoring M1e and how much of a win differential would that take?

I'd say it's far more likely that there's a sekiwake logjam courtesy of Shōdai in some shape or form, and the only person capable of forcing an extra sekiwake slot would be Kiribayama if he wins out. I don't see a 13-2 Takayasu getting a jump to sekiwake if there are more than the regular 2 slots already. We could even wind up with 5 sekiwake (Hōshōryū, Wakatakakage, Shōdai, Mitakeumi, and Kiribayama) and 2 komusubi (Takayasu, Kotonowaka) if all other komusubi lose out.

Edited by Seiyashi

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7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

 

Demotion queue: Chiyotairyū, Terutsuyoshi, Atamifuji, Takarafuji, Okinoumi
Promotion queue: Tsurugishō, Mitoryū, Bushōzan, Akua, Hokuseihō

Something appears seriously wrong at some part of Isegahama. Terutsuyoshi and Atamifuji are sure to be demoted next basho with unsalvageable records at the foot of the division. Takarafuji managed to salvage one more win today, but he would like 2 more for absolute safety.

 The only potentially borderline result is Okinoumi: he won to ensure a result of no worse than 6-9, which generally stays in makuuchi especially if M17 makes a reappearance with a shrunken sanyaku, but Sōkokurai got demoted with a 6-9 from M13w when the division ended at M16e and there were three double digit records in upper jūryō.

 

I wouldn't say Atamifuji has an unsalvageable record yet. Look at Terutsuyoshi last basho. He certainly has a demotable record, but it's not yet terrible and we only have one rikishi currently with a promotable record from Juryo.

I would be very surpised if Okinoumi was demoted. He is safe by the numbers. The difference to Sokokurai was that with no M16w, Sokokurai at M13W didn't have the same cushion and needed a 7-8 to be safe.

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7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

 

In that above line up it's arguable that Kiribayama and Takayasu ought to be swapped, really. My head is killing me now so I'd rather not do the query, but how often does a KK komusubi get leapfrogged to the sekiwake spot by a better-scoring M1e and how much of a win differential would that take?

This basho from 2017 had Tamawashi at 11-4 M1e leapfrogging Onosho (8-7 at Kw) for Sekiwake. Onosho was even passed over for Ke by Takakeisho who scored 11-4 at M1w. I don't think it's common enough to draw many conclusions, though I haven't searched through everything.

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3 hours ago, Sakura said:

I wouldn't say Atamifuji has an unsalvageable record yet. Look at Terutsuyoshi last basho. He certainly has a demotable record, but it's not yet terrible and we only have one rikishi currently with a promotable record from Juryo.

I would be very surpised if Okinoumi was demoted. He is safe by the numbers. The difference to Sokokurai was that with no M16w, Sokokurai at M13W didn't have the same cushion and needed a 7-8 to be safe.

Eh... it looks like there are too many potential promotees from juryo to save Atami, even if he miraculously runs the table. Tsurugisho's the only current lock, but Mitoryu and Akua only need one more win, and Bushozan and Hokuseiho only need two. Gotta figure at least two of them will get there.

Even if only three guys from juryo earn promotions, right now Takarafuji is on track to be the one saved unless he finishes 2-13 and Atami finishes 6-9.

I agree that Okinoumi shouldn't go anywhere, barring some completely bonkers juryo outcomes (and I doubt he'd go down even then).

11 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

There are no intra-sanyaku matchups left which are mutually annihilatory i.e. where both rikishi are fighting each other for a sanyaku spot.

Maybe not for a spot in the sanyaku as a whole, but it sure looks like Shodai and Mitakeumi are going to fight to potentially maintain their current ranks (or, if Mitakeumi loses today, for him to hold on to a sanyaku spot at all). 

Also, the "worst" case scenario would really make things a lot easier on the rest of the banzuke; if nobody drops back to maegashira, and those wins absorb some of the potential promotion ranks amongst the current maegashira, moving everyone around for the next set of rankings becomes significantly less complicated.

Edited by Sumo Spiffy
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19 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Eh... it looks like there are too many potential promotees from juryo to save Atami, even if he miraculously runs the table. Tsurugisho's the only current lock, but Mitoryu and Akua only need one more win, and Bushozan and Hokuseiho only need two. Gotta figure at least two of them will get there.

The word is potential. It hasn't happened yet. Nothing is definite until it's definite. I don't think Atamifuji is winning out, and there is a good chance of having 3 rikishi with promotable record, but it hasn't happened yet.

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11 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

No changes on the makushita side. On the jūryō side, Takakentō, Shimazuumi, Rōga, and Gōnoyama all won to put some distance between themselves and the drop. First in the firing line is now Tsushimanada, who is one loss away from an MK and a probable drop, while Tokushōryū also failed to win today and is now also in peril if he doesn't win out. Shimazuumi has moved backwards in the demotion queue and is now joined by Kaishō, who unlike his east counterpart Chiyosakae failed to pick up a win today and needs two more to avoid being nominally demotable.

Interesting that Shiden and Shonannoumi are up in Juryo tomorrow, facing Shimazuumi and Gonoyama, respectively, while Asanoyama gets Ms10 Kamito.

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3 hours ago, Sakura said:

I would be very surpised if Okinoumi was demoted. He is safe by the numbers. The difference to Sokokurai was that with no M16w, Sokokurai at M13W didn't have the same cushion and needed a 7-8 to be safe.

If he loses out, Takarafuji picks up 2 more wins, and there are 3+ very strong promotion cases in Juryo, I don't think they'd have a choice, but I don't know what the unluckiest non-promotion from Juryo has been.

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1 minute ago, Reonito said:

If he loses out, Takarafuji picks up 2 more wins, and there are 3+ very strong promotion cases in Juryo, I don't think they'd have a choice, but I don't know what the unluckiest non-promotion from Juryo has been.

Mitoryu had one more win than his rank needed and couldn't get in.

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7 minutes ago, Reonito said:

If he loses out, Takarafuji picks up 2 more wins, and there are 3+ very strong promotion cases in Juryo, I don't think they'd have a choice, but I don't know what the unluckiest non-promotion from Juryo has been.

J1's that didn't get promoted.Mostly 8-7s from J1w. Though a couple of 8-7's from J1e and four 9-6's from J1w.

J2-3's: Worst being an 11-4Y from J3.

J4-5's: Worst being an 11-4Y from J4

J6-7's: Worst being a 13-2 Y from J7

Having strong promotion cases doesn't guarantee a promotion.

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Just now, Sakura said:

J1's that didn't get promoted.Mostly 8-7s from J1w. Though a couple of 8-7's from J1e and four 9-6's from J1w.

J2-3's: Worst being an 11-4Y from J3.

J4-5's: Worst being an 11-4Y from J4

J6-7's: Worst being a 13-2 Y from J7

Having strong promotion cases doesn't guarantee a promotion.

Thanks, some of those are pretty eye-opening, though I want to check who would've been the best candidate for over-demotion (like, were they absolutely safe in makuuchi, or a bit borderline?)

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