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Hoshotakamoto

March Madness (makushita) - November edition

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Don't strain your eyes trying to read this - it is a speculative Makushita bracket being published before we know which rikishi will miss the November basho. However, among those competing, it should paint a reasonable picture of what to expect for them in the quest for yusho.

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This version reflects what we know heading into day 1. Of course if Gonoyama defeats Shiden then this entry vanishes from the bracket and everyone shifts up. Also there's about a 50% chance that Juryo will further disrupt the shape of the winners' bracket on day 2, but we'll wait and see how that plays out. I'm already excited to get to day 3 and a better font size.

 

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Day 1 results are in. Shiden moves on in the winners bracket instead of disappearing from memory. We would ostensibly have to reshuffle to avoid Hokutomaru vs Hokutoshu as both men advanced, but Juryo may yet disrupt us even more than that. Takadagawa and Takasago had a big day in Makushita.

It's possible that I'll reconfigure and resubmit the updated shape of the bracket tonight if in fact we know already that Juryo will mix it up on day 2.

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Here's the best information we have heading into day 2, with Shonannoumi back in action against Tsushimanada. If Tsushimanada wins then things will proceed as if Shonannoumi and Tsukahara were never in contention. We should get a reprieve from Juryo interference in the winners' bracket on day 3 assuming one-loss Tsukahara is pulled up next.

Image resolution should be better here as well.

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With results from day 2 in and matchups for day 3 announced here is the latest winners' bracket. I'll try to set up a 1-loss bracket since technically it's always possible that a 1 loss competitor could take the yusho, but that is a much harder bracket to manage.

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The consolation bracket will kick off here on day 3 with the 0-1 vs 0-1 matches. Gradually as rikishi fall out of the winners' bracket and land here this will grow substantially (I've always found it a considerable challenge to render it, but hoping for the best this month).

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Day 5 is probably about the best time for this bracket, as 75% of the cruft is gone but you still have 32 solid competitors in play (I know a few of them are already knocked out in real-time, but here's what we had at the start of today).

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1-loss bracket needs more time. Here is the winners' bracket heading into day 7. It looks like all of these matchups will come to fruition on day 7 except the Oshoumi bout.

Takadagawa has been the troublemaker, with at least one modification to avoid Otsuji v Setonoumi (Akiseyama could have set up an interesting dual matchup between Kise and Takadagawa but alas...), and now with Setonoumi bumped to the right side he forces us to move Akinoyama's match down the banzuke.

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2 Tsukedashi (Kayo, Kawazoe) and 2 hot prospects (Oshoumi, Setonoumi) are probably the outside favs to beat Asanoyama. Besides that watch out for Shonanoumi to try to get his Kachi-Koshi and for smaller prospects Otsuji and Mineyaiba to make an impact. 

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3 hours ago, Chartorenji said:

2 Tsukedashi (Kayo, Kawazoe) and 2 hot prospects (Oshoumi, Setonoumi) are probably the outside favs to beat Asanoyama. Besides that watch out for Shonanoumi to try to get his Kachi-Koshi and for smaller prospects Otsuji and Mineyaiba to make an impact. 

Yeah I agree the most likely path is Shonannoumi/Chiyonoumi (I couldn't pick a winner) -> Kawazoe -> Oshoumi. I root for Kayo but he doesn't leave much of an impression on me. I think Setonoumi and Otsuji are at this point the most likely to create chaos in the seeding (see: Asonoyama's matches against 1-loss rikishi in the previous basho).

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With these matches bearing down on us in real time I'll post the top part of the 1-loss bracket (most of the stuff below this has now been contested).

 

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The optimal way to render this "consolation bracket" is still a bit of an unsolved puzzle. Once again the matchups are underway live, but here's a peek at how things should play out for the top of the division in upcoming days.

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I've been dragging my feet on posting the filled-out 1-loss bracket but there is bit of intrigue here. If Shonannoumi moves up to 5-1 with a win against Kamito he won't be able to compete vs Hakuyozan (his stable-mate) or a rematch with Chiyonoumi. So going for 6-1 would they reach further down the makushita ranks to select his final opponent, or would they just match him up with someone in Juryo?

Meanwhile it's confirmed that Hakuyozan will face Chiyonoumi, and I suppose if Hakuyozan goes up to 5-1 then it'll raise the same question of setting him up for an exchange match in Juryo. If Chiyonoumi is 5-1 he will have faced all 3 men listed above him so he'll have to take an opponent from further down (see next post).

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Here's the next grouping in the "consolation" bracket. Kawazoe would have to be matched vs Otsuji next because he has already competed vs Tochiseiryu and Tanabe. I think it's possible (?) that Kawazoe and Shonannoumi could meet in their 7th match to determine who finishes 5-1. Elsewise he is also a decent prospect to face Chiyonoumi or Kamito depending on how things play out.

The loser of Asanoyama/Tamashoho will also figure in here (supposing it's Tamashoho, his rank is Ms23). The 9th person in the makushita rankings with 1 loss is Asonoyama at Ms25 so these guys would default to Tamashoho first if they haven't faced him yet (Otsuji and Tanabe both have).

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The third grouping includes a match booked for day 11 (Mukainakano/Narutaki) and a presumptive day 12 pairing in Asonoyama/Setonoumi, which gives Setonoumi a chance to win back the only September match that he lost, on day 1. (The rematch didn't help Kiryuko, who had lost earlier in the year to Asonoyama in a match that was stopped after a few minutes because Kiryuko was bleeding too much.) It doesn't seem likely to me that the loser of Mineyaiba/Chiyonokatsu will face any of these rikishi in the final match, and Tamashoho is possible but IMO unlikely as well. So we could see the winners face each other, or they might be matched with someone from the previous and following sub-brackets being posted.

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Fourth bracket - this is all speculative since it hasn't been booked for day 11, but these should be the correct matchups for day 12. Here's where I think one of these men is likely to face the loser of Mineyaiba/Chiyonokatsu for a shot at 6-1. There's the added wrinkle that the Koto's can't face each other, although I'll be pretty shocked if they sweep Kayo and Oshoumi.

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Things get a little weird at the bottom since there's an arbitrary cutoff to Sandanme. Shohoryu could have very easily been truncated from the bracket today, but he won, so there are an odd number of 4-1s in Makushita. As mentioned above, there will be two semi-final losers dropping in to face the winners of these matches, and we don't know who may or may not face a Juryo opponent in their 7th match. One thing we do know is that Omoto and Shohoryu will not have a rematch of the day 1 matchup when Omoto beat Shohoryu.

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Here's the final consolation bracket for the top of makushita. Asanoyama/Kamito is scheduled to take place tonight. I will hold off on the yusho bracket until it is finished since I don't think anyone who is interested in the outcome needs me to tell them who the final 2 competitors are.

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This is the next-highest-ranked consolation bracket being completed tonight. I am uncertain of the schedulers' intentions since this skips over (1) Hakuyozan, (2) Tochiseiryu, (3) Otsuji, (4) Asonoyama, (5) Mukainakano, where 5 is an odd number. I didn't see anything stopping them from matching Kayo up vs Mukainakano, so the question it raises in my mind is this: will Hakuyozan be featured in a Juryo exchange match on day 14 or 15?

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33 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

so the question it raises in my mind is this: will Hakuyozan be featured in a Juryo exchange match on day 14 or 15?

I think that's pretty much a certainty.

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I think this match is a couple minutes away. It's not usually the case that we'd suck in so much data from the Sandanme yusho bracket (I wasn't prepared for it).
 

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