Guess Kiribayama's Aite - November 2022 edition

[Jakusotsu 4,841]

This ball was as curved as it could get! I guess not even Lady Sakura can possibly predict how they're intending to do the final rounds anymore.

Sakura (YOe) 8-3
Sumo Spiffy (K1w) 8-3
Reonito (Y1e) 7-4
Jakusotsu (S1e) 6-5
Profomisakari (K1e) 6-5
Jejima (M2w) 6-4-1
Gurowake (YOw) 5-6
Oshirokita (S1w) 5-6
Hakuhonofan (S2w) 5-6
shimodahito (M1w) 4-6-1
WAKATAKE (M1e) 2-2-7
The Kyokai (M3e) 2-9
Seiyashi (M2e) 1-10
Ryoshishokunin (M3w) 0-0-11

Kiribayama's aites: 1. Ura, 2. Wakatakakage, 3. Midorifuji, 4. Tobizaru, 5. Daieisho, 6. Tamawashi, 7. Mitakeumi, 8. Takayasu, 9. Kotonowaka, 10. Takakeisho, 11. Ryuden

[Sumo Spiffy 177]

5 minutes ago, Sakura said:

I had 5 minutes between trying to solve an emeregncy problem for my in-laws and hosting a dinner party that my spouse had arranged at short notice and that is what I came up with. If it's wrong, you'll know why. 

Well... if we go by the markers I have that tell one setup from another, I think you made the right call.

But the Kyokai won. I think they were trying to win. WTF.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Sumo Spiffy

[Reonito 598]

1 minute ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Well... if we go by the markers I have that tell one setup from another, I think you made the right call.

But the Kyokai won. I think they were trying to win. WTF.

I sure am glad I spent time on this 

[Sumo Spiffy 177]

15 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I sure am glad I spent time on this 

I'm just staring at it like, even if I picked the right theoretical layout, and even if I picked not only which fight they would break but how they would (appear to) order the selection of who gets first dibs on a reasonable opponent, and even if I knew Tamawashi and Kiri would end up with opponents of the same rank, I still would have gotten it wrong because I'd have picked Wakamotoharu (and Sadanoumi for Tamawashi).

If old shimpan have a version of "for the lulz", I think this is it.

[WAKATAKE 2,339]

12 Nishikifuji

[Seiyashi 3,326]

Eh, Jakusotsu - I boarded the wrong train, but you guys were on a rollercoaster, apparently!

Just for the hell of a blast from the past: 12: Hokutofuji.

This is the most amusing Guess game in terms of reactions for a while.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Jakusotsu 4,841]

As we know by now, could be anybody...

Day 12 - Shodai

[Sumo Spiffy 177]

Needed to see today's matches before committing to:

12. Shodai

[Sakura 1,225]

8 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Well... if we go by the markers I have that tell one setup from another, I think you made the right call.

But the Kyokai won. I think they were trying to win. WTF.

Do I get bonus points for at least getting the intra-sanyaku bouts right?

[Sumo Spiffy 177]

2 minutes ago, Sakura said:

Do I get bonus points for at least getting the intra-sanyaku bouts right?

Yeah, gold stars and high-fives for that one. You're leading me 2-1 in "100% getting shafted by the committee" so far this basho.

[Jakusotsu 4,841]

8 minutes ago, Sakura said:

Do I get bonus points for at least getting the intra-sanyaku bouts right?

So you actually went with two instead of three? Bold, but brilliant.

I think this is the earliest time ever in history to have been decided that not all available intra-sanyaku matches will be happening.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Jakusotsu

[Sakura 1,225]

OK. I really am struggling to see the reasoning behind a lot of the match-ups. For instance, why did Takakeisho skip Sadanoumi for Hokutofuji? Was it because Hokutofuji had 6 wins to Sadanoumi's 4? Are they suddenly going more by record at this stage?

[Sakura 1,225]

1 minute ago, Jakusotsu said:

So you actuall went with two instead of three? Bold, but brilliant.

I think this is the earliest time ever in history to have been decided that not all available intra-sanyaku matches will be happening.

No. I didn't even notice that there were only two. I saw that I had the Hoshoryu and Shodai matches right.

[Profomisakari 610]

Day 12 Shodai

[Sumo Spiffy 177]

1 hour ago, Sakura said:

No. I didn't even notice that there were only two. I saw that I had the Hoshoryu and Shodai matches right.

I'm guessing you also had Takakeisho and Tamawashi, which was clearly intended but broken up due to record differential making it pointless.

As for the matchups, I'm assuming they skipped Takakeisho to the next guy with a winning record he hadn't fought, which was Hokutofuji. Otherwise, breaking the Keisho/Washi match would have been pointless. Kiri's match speaks more to wanting to get records together; if they just wanted winner v. winner, Meisei and Wakamotoharu were completely valid options further up the list. They appear to have wanted to get some 6-3s paired off, I'm guessing in case the current leaders fall to pieces (a fair enough concern for most, but seems a little early to think that'll happen to Hoshoryu).

Edit: Straight up, I have no idea if Shodai is going to be correct for day twelve. I just had to go with the previously expected option because I'll go mad if I try to consider all the permutations if they go away from that matchup.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Sumo Spiffy

[Gurowake 3,435]

Skipping Tamawashi vs. Takakeisho to put the latter against Hokutofuji is quite bizarre in terms of things that they normally would have done in the past, but it makes reasonable sense if you disregard what they usually do, which is probably what we're going to have to do from now on.

[Jejima 938]

12 Shodai?

[Reonito 598]

6 hours ago, Sakura said:

OK. I really am struggling to see the reasoning behind a lot of the match-ups. For instance, why did Takakeisho skip Sadanoumi for Hokutofuji? Was it because Hokutofuji had 6 wins to Sadanoumi's 4? Are they suddenly going more by record at this stage?

Yeah looks like they started on Day 11; it's usually a day or two later.

[Hakuhonofan 324]

12. Shoudai

[Gurowake 3,435]

12. Shodai

[Oshirokita 153]

12. Hoshoryu

I've worked out a nice plan for the remaining sanyaku (minus some skipped pairings) that looks quite feasible, and therefor will be totally wrong.

[Sakura 1,225]

12 Shodai

[Reonito 598]

I've stopped focusing on sanyaku matchups as much and started looking at the yusho race. With that in mind, and to keep things sporting,

12. Hoshoryu

[shimodahito 243]

12. shodai....  maybe we should have kept hokutofuji since he's still going against a lot sanyaku'ers

[Sumo Spiffy 177]

4 hours ago, Reonito said:

I've stopped focusing on sanyaku matchups as much and started looking at the yusho race. With that in mind, and to keep things sporting,

12. Hoshoryu

I know that once the race enters the picture, things can get screwy. That said, I have one setup that works (normally) with Hoshoryu on 12, but it would have required Shodai on 11.

If you're right, something in my room is getting thrown, and I may invest in a dartboard for picking the rest of the basho.