Guess Kiribayama's Aite - November 2022 edition

[Reonito 599]

8. Takayasu

[shimodahito 243]

8.shodai

[Jakusotsu 4,841]

@Sumo Spiffy It would be easier for me if you didn't hide your picks in a wall of text.

Sakura (YOe) 7-1
Reonito (Y1e) 6-2
Sumo Spiffy (K1w) 6-2
Jakusotsu (S1e) 5-3
Profomisakari (K1e) 5-3
Jejima (M2w) 5-2-1
Gurowake (YOw) 4-4
Hakuhonofan (S2w) 4-4
Oshirokita (S1w) 3-5
shimodahito (M1w) 3-4-1
WAKATAKE (M1e) 1-1-6
Seiyashi (M2e) 1-7
The Kyokai (M3e) 1-7
Ryoshishokunin (M3w) 0-0-8

Kiribayama's aites: 1. Ura, 2. Wakatakakage, 3. Midorifuji, 4. Tobizaru, 5. Daieisho, 6. Tamawashi, 7. Mitakeumi, 8. Takayasu

[Sumo Spiffy 177]

56 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

@Sumo Spiffy It would be easier for me if you didn't hide your picks in a wall of text.

I blame my students who write 500-word paragraphs. Nothing I do on here looks hard to parse by comparison. But I do like to talk a lot, so maybe I should start doing this:

9. Kotonowaka

Including Sadanoumi has my brain twisted like a rollercoaster, but it doesn't necessarily change the answer I had ready and I don't want to take a chance I get too busy to put a guess in tomorrow.

Edited November 19, 2022 by Sumo Spiffy

[Jakusotsu 4,841]

Day 9 - Shodai

[Jejima 938]

It's not a certainty, but my analysis (based on the way that I would do the torikumi) agrees with Klaus....

Day 9 - Shodai

[Profomisakari 610]

Day 9 Shodai

[Seiyashi 3,326]

Day 9: Shōdai

[Gurowake 3,435]

Assuming they have some sense of what they're doing, which might be questionable, but...

9. Shodai

[shimodahito 243]

9.shodai

[Sumo Spiffy 177]

...uh oh.

Edit: You know what's really absurd? The idea that I wouldn't spend more time on this, whether or not I reasonably had the time to spend. And now I completely understand the Shodai pick. But I'll take my lumps and maybe get lucky that I'll be right about their short-sightedness.

Edited November 19, 2022 by Sumo Spiffy

[Sakura 1,225]

9 Shodai

Though it's not the only way to complete the sanyaku slate fully.  @Sumo Spiffy could easily be right with Kotonowaka.

[Hakuhonofan 324]

9. Shoudai

[Gurowake 3,435]

2 hours ago, Sakura said:

Though it's not the only way to complete the sanyaku slate fully.

I've come to believe that the reason that they seem to not really care about maintaining the top 4 round-robin is simply that it's unlikely to be fully used anyway.  As long as they can complete them in some way, they probably don't care, because they expect to not use the matches between those sanyaku at the top of the arasoi and those not anywhere near the top of it.

[Sumo Spiffy 177]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

I've come to believe that the reason that they seem to not really care about maintaining the top 4 round-robin is simply that it's unlikely to be fully used anyway.  As long as they can complete them in some way, they probably don't care, because they expect to not use the matches between those sanyaku at the top of the arasoi and those not anywhere near the top of it.

Once it came to pass that they would have to run an OvS fight early to get them all done, I maintained my initial assumption that they would try to knock out all the K2 intra-sanyaku fights ASAP, which led to the setup I currently have. What I missed was that, if they had to do one early, they would probably still want to do it as late as possible; if Kiri gets Shodai on day 9, then (as far as I can see) they can do that OvS fight on day 11, but if it's Kotonowaka (and the rest of my setup is correct), they would have to do it on day 10. 

So, it's possible I'll be right for reasons similar to how Sakura came to pick Tamawashi a few days ago, but I concur with the group that Shodai makes for the "cleaner" overall schedule.

[Oshirokita 153]

9. Kotonowaka

[Reonito 599]

They can either screw up the pattern today or be forced to screw it up tomorrow; since I don't think they're thinking ahead,

9. Shodai

[Jakusotsu 4,841]

Just like for day 6, two rogues got it right, one of them catching up with the leader.

Sakura (YOe) 7-2
Sumo Spiffy (K1w) 7-2
Reonito (Y1e) 6-3
Jakusotsu (S1e) 5-4
Profomisakari (K1e) 5-4
Jejima (M2w) 5-3-1
Gurowake (YOw) 4-5
Oshirokita (S1w) 4-5
Hakuhonofan (S2w) 4-5
shimodahito (M1w) 3-5-1
WAKATAKE (M1e) 1-1-7
Seiyashi (M2e) 1-8
The Kyokai (M3e) 1-8
Ryoshishokunin (M3w) 0-0-9

Kiribayama's aites: 1. Ura, 2. Wakatakakage, 3. Midorifuji, 4. Tobizaru, 5. Daieisho, 6. Tamawashi, 7. Mitakeumi, 8. Takayasu, 9. Kotonowaka

[Jakusotsu 4,841]

By the way, what's puzzling me is M7 Endo (2-5) vs. M16 Terutsuyoshi (0-7) and M8 Takarafuji (0-7) vs. M14 Azumaryu (3-4). Could have well been the other way round.

[Seiyashi 3,326]

Day 10: Hōshōryū

[Sumo Spiffy 177]

1 hour ago, Jakusotsu said:

By the way, what's puzzling me is M7 Endo (2-5) vs. M16 Terutsuyoshi (0-7) and M8 Takarafuji (0-7) vs. M14 Azumaryu (3-4). Could have well been the other way round.

I can... sorta see it? If they wanted Terutsuyoshi to have a more "fitting" opponent record-wise, Endo is the only person outside the joi at two wins with Chiyotairyu gone. Takarafuji already fought Endo, but if they had to give him someone who was 3-4 anyway, those just below him were all taken as opponents by the time it got to him. There's not another 3-4 until Okinoumi. I assume Oki got Ichiyamamoto because Ichi had already fought most of the people around his rank, and Azumaryu was next. 

(Edit: I know they could have put Teru against Takara, but with both at 0-7, they're guaranteed they can wait a day and the two won't be more than one win apart from each other, so I'm presuming that's part of the logic.)

A smaller shift, but a weirder one (to me), is how Myogiryu drew Chiyoshoma instead of Aoiyama as an opponent. Both are 3-4, and Chiyo is 10 west to Aoiyama's 10 east. Hiradoumi (who got Aoiyama) could have fought either one as well. There's absolutely no explanation for that one.

Edited November 20, 2022 by Sumo Spiffy

[Sumo Spiffy 177]

10. Takakeisho

[Jakusotsu 4,841]

In the hope that at least Takakeisho's schedule will be some kind of normal...

Day 10 - Takakeisho

[Jejima 938]

10 - yeah, Takakeisho

[Profomisakari 610]

Day 10  Takakeisho