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Kintamayama

GTB invitation- Kyushu 2022- Results!!

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On 26/10/2022 at 10:03, Seiyashi said:

The question is what the committee considers "definitely going to get the rank". My impression of banzuke records is roughly as you have outlined, but what sticks in my mind is Abi's string of KKs in the second half of 2019 at komusubi, yet being stuck there because there were no vacancies at sekiwake. There was a discussion back then about whether Abi would be promoted to sekiwake and then the falling ōzeki stuffed at S2, but in the event Abi never made it to sekiwake then.

To me, that seems pretty indicative that the banzuke committee demotes first then promotes later. In favour of this interpretation is the fact that Tamawashi has a record that even under the more restrictive Daieishō precedent should be sufficient to force a haridashi sanyaku slot, so there's no difficulty justifying putting Tamawashi at K2.

perhaps I am naive but I just don't believe in the Daieisho precedent. The way I saw it at the time was that they had opened up a slot for Daieisho at S2e on the strength of his 11-4 komosubi record (including 2 fusen victories) and he rewarded them by going 5-10. So when he went 13-2 as an M1 four months later they were like "that's nice but we already tried letting you be a sekiwake and it didn't pan out".

That's my take on it. I tell myself they will let Tamawashi move up on the strength of his performance because he has won a championship as a sekiwake before. But I seem to be in the minority on this.

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On 25/10/2022 at 15:33, Sumo Spiffy said:

Day late, but got the ol' video up now:

I would post a pic of the final result, but I can't upload anything that takes up more than ~50 KB.

I know there is a high probability that the majority of this board will score higher than me on this month's GTB, but it is notable that most if not all analyses I've seen pose a lot of problems that magically go away if Tamawashi goes up to Sekiwake and Takayasu goes up to Komosubi (a 1-2-4-4 banzuke). I have no faith that the committee will open their checkbooks and make this a reality, but I think it's the most justifiable ranking.

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5 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

perhaps I am naive but I just don't believe in the Daieisho precedent. The way I saw it at the time was that they had opened up a slot for Daieisho at S2e on the strength of his 11-4 komosubi record (including 2 fusen victories) and he rewarded them by going 5-10. So when he went 13-2 as an M1 four months later they were like "that's nice but we already tried letting you be a sekiwake and it didn't pan out".

That's my take on it. I tell myself they will let Tamawashi move up on the strength of his performance because he has won a championship as a sekiwake before. But I seem to be in the minority on this.

There are two counterpoints to that: Ichinojō was also ranked at komusubi only after his own championship, exactly where everyone expected per the Daieishō precedent. Also, even if the committee takes past performance at a rank into account (which I don't believe they do), it could also be argued that Tamawashi's championship year was also very see-sawy with something like symmetrical DD KKs and MKs and the case for putting him at sekiwake is not super strong either. 

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43 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Also, even if the committee takes past performance at a rank into account (which I don't believe they do)

I've seen little evidence to treat banzuke decisions as anything other than a Markov process.

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On 28/10/2022 at 14:35, Hoshotakamoto said:

I know there is a high probability that the majority of this board will score higher than me on this month's GTB, but it is notable that most if not all analyses I've seen pose a lot of problems that magically go away if Tamawashi goes up to Sekiwake and Takayasu goes up to Komosubi (a 1-2-4-4 banzuke). I have no faith that the committee will open their checkbooks and make this a reality, but I think it's the most justifiable ranking.

I guess it depends on what you perceive as a problem. For example, Daieisho getting bumped down to maegashira would cause a boatload of problems if they insist on winning rikishi being promoted, because that would take up the space they need for Kotonowaka, Meisei, and Ura to be promoted without shafting anyone else big time. Takayasu only going to M1E doesn't create any major issues—someone out of Midorifuji, Ichinojo, and Wakatmotoharu is going to take what we perceive to be an under-promotion/over-demotion, but it's only a problem for that guy (or guys if it happens to two of them). It doesn't turn the whole process into chaos. Since a 7-8 sekiwake being demoted to komusubi and an 11-4 M4W only going to M1E are both actions with clear precedent, it makes that the obvious expectation for this banzuke.

I think much of the joy (or "joy" if you prefer [no, I'm not going to make a joi pun]) in the game comes from knowing these clear expectations but always having to cross our fingers a little bit that the committee won't have a sake blowout the night they finalize everything.

On 28/10/2022 at 04:04, Kintamayama said:

15W. Makes sense to me almost like leaving a 7-8 Hiradoumi in Makuuchi. But as you know, I'm very good at this. Now that we're discussing this, it probably is totally wrong.

There's a reason I mentioned Atamifuji possibly being placed behind Terutsuyoshi in my video. The level of favoritism they show to makuuchi wrestlers over juryo promotees vs. avoiding the look of having a 6-9 wrestler only drop a half-rank is a debate between two strong inclinations the committee has shown, and those are the hardest to choose between.

Truthfully, I auto-piloted Atamifuji ahead of Teru in my draft, and mostly left it like that because I couldn't think of a good enough reason to change it. If I had to pick a clear reason for keeping it that way, it would be that I think Isegahama will let Teru drop that little bit extra because that's his guy and he doesn't want it to look like he's putting his whole hand on the scale.

Edited by Sumo Spiffy
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Immediate reactions: 

1. fk, I was right about Tamawashi going ahead of Kiribayama, just didn't have the nerve to pull the trigger on it

2. wow, I was right about Wakamotoharu but they still dumpstered Midorifuji in favor of Ichinojo

3. Ryuden and Nishikigi are opposite what I expected for no reason I can see, but nbd

4. they really have a soft spot for Takarafuji, huh

5. of course this is the first time in like 25 years they don't put a kyujo komusubi at M10E

Looks like 65 for me. I'm a little disappointed I didn't do the Tamawashi/Kiri switch, but that same part of my brain may have swapped Terutsuyoshi and Atamifuji, so it's OK.

Also, of the people who posted their guesses, only Hoshotakamoto had Abi correct, but he had an extra sanyaku, so at a glance it's hard to see anyone blowing everyone else out.

Edited by Sumo Spiffy

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60 (62, can't count) here I think, too many half rank differences in the way that gets you no points, but I'll take it.

Edited by Hidenotora
can't count

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56 here. I'm disappointed as I thought that apart from Abi, where I was obviously way out on a limb (12e), I was pretty confident. 56 is usually good enough for a kk so fingers crossed.

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28 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

3. Ryuden and Nishikigi are opposite what I expected for no reason I can see, but nbd

4. they really have a soft spot for Takarafuji, huh

Agreed on both points.

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31 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Immediate reactions: 

1. fk, I was right about Tamawashi going ahead of Kiribayama, just didn't have the nerve to pull the trigger on it

2. wow, I was right about Wakamotoharu but they still dumpstered Midorifuji in favor of Ichinojo

3. Ryuden and Nishikigi are opposite what I expected for no reason I can see, but nbd

4. they really have a soft spot for Takarafuji, huh

5. of course this is the first time in like 25 years they don't put a kyujo komusubi at M10E

Looks like 65 for me. I'm a little disappointed I didn't do the Tamawashi/Kiri switch, but that same part of my brain may have swapped Terutsuyoshi and Atamifuji, so it's OK.

Also, of the people who posted their guesses, only Hoshotakamoto had Abi correct, but he had an extra sanyaku, so at a glance it's hard to see anyone blowing everyone else out.

I think I had exactly the same issues and the same score, though IIRC our guesses differed in a few places.

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I have 60.  Terrible east side made up by a west side with very few mistakes.

I was right that Ichinojo was going to be ahead of Midorifuji, but it ended up not mattering, and all the people who dumpstered Wakamotoharu ended up being right more than I was with those three.  I guess that treatment of Onosho a bit ago is seen to be perfectly reasonable and not just something that they do when they have little other choice.  It also shows an even greater joi privilege than I could possibly have imagined.

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1 hour ago, Wamahada said:

51, most probably not enough for a KK

Same boat, 52 if I counted the komusubi correctly, and too many half ranks off in, as someone said, the way that gets you no points. Also didn't expect both Hiradoumi and Terutsuyoshi to survive.

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1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

Same boat, 52 if I counted the komusubi correctly, and too many half ranks off in, as someone said, the way that gets you no points. Also didn't expect both Hiradoumi and Terutsuyoshi to survive.

I don't blame you, but if anything's become clear recently, it's that if you're in juryo, the committee is going to make you earn what you get.

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2 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I don't blame you, but if anything's become clear recently, it's that if you're in juryo, the committee is going to make you earn what you get.

Yeah, certainly going to need to bear that in mind when looking at any borderline makuuchi results in future.

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19 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Same boat, 52 if I counted the komusubi correctly, and too many half ranks off in, as someone said, the way that gets you no points. Also didn't expect both Hiradoumi and Terutsuyoshi to survive.

I think both demotion cases were very similar, and it would have been harder to justify choosing which one to demote in favor of very weak Tohakuryu than just keeping both.

Edited by Reonito
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13 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I think both demotion cases were very similar, and it would have been harder to justify choosing one to demote in favor of very weak Tohakuryu than just keeping both.

Yeah, I definitely feel like they make these sort of decisions quite often, but I can't bring myself to agree with them, since I'm generally going on a very systematized basis, and that basis said that Tohakuryu was just barely strong enough to bring down Terutsuyoshi.  I saw quite a large difference between that and Bushozan replacing Hiradoumi, which I saw as basically impossible, large enough to be worth dividing them, but they apparently decided that the half-rank gap between the two Makuuchi borderline results was small enough to not demote one over the other when the promotion was sketchy.

Also, I think if I had considered the fact that Tohakuryu would have been a division debut, I would have seen it as more likely to not promote him.  I don't know if it would have been enough, but I definitely failed to even consider it.

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Analysis of my mistakes:

Tamawashi over Kiribayama (-2) - This definitely drives the nail into the coffin any idea that Komusubi returns are always higher ranked.  I suppose what we've seen in the past is just the large bias towards sanyaku when making the next banzuke, but in this case Kiribayama wasn't far enough ahead of Tamawashi to overcome the difference in record, even counting the Komusubi preference.

Wakamotoharu, Ichinojo, and Midorifuji all screwed up.  I've already talked about this.  (-6)

Nishikigi over Ryuden (-2) - At first it seems absolutely bizarre, but on second thought it's in line with the amount of joi privilege shown Ichinojo and Midorifuji over Wakamotoharu, so perhaps this was their attempt at some intrabanzuke consistency in that regard. 

Takarafuji over Takanosho (-4) - Very surprised by this.  Takarafuji almost treated a a joi member, and while he did face Shodai, Wakamotoharu faced 2 other sanyaku on top of Shodai and got dumpstered.  It may be only a half rank of by the numbers, but that should have been enough.

Abi over Aoiyama (-4) - Placement of 0 win Komusubi is guesswork.  M10e is the most common place to land, and seemed fine here, but it's reasonable to swap these two.

Onosho over Kotoeko (-4) - Tiebreaker goes to the one with less wins.  Not used to seeing that.  It's perhaps because they had to be split by Kotoshoho, and it made more sense in terms of percentages to not drop Onosho as far once that was required.

Terutsuyoshi over Tohakuryu (-2) - Already discussed.

84-24=60

 

Edited by Gurowake

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16 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Analysis of my mistakes:

I made the first 5 of these mistakes (with Abi at M10w, which also lost me a point for Chiyoshoma), but not the last two, so 60+6-1=65.

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Results are in- Yusho winner is Unkonoyama ( literally, a pile of sh*t..) for the second time. High scoring all around. Tiny difference at the top - Only 4 points between the winner and the 23rd place!! 2 new players, one of them takes the 6th place. I don't remember results ever being this close at the top.

Milestones:

Ullishimaru- 130th basho!!!

Yubinhaad- 130th basho !!!

Jakusotsu - 110th basho!!

Screeching Owl - 50th basho

Kamogawa  - 40th basho

Ulsimitauki  - 30th basho

Goshobiyama -20th basho..

Thanks for playing and thanks to Doitsuyama and Andoreasu for making this happen.

And now- on with the Ba-show!!

You can see how you did right here.

  • Thanks 4

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Wow,, that is really packed with high scores.  60 points all the way down to 50th is nuts.  50 all the way down to 104th.

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I also made almost the same mistakes like already mentioned.

Compared to Gurowake I got Wakamotoharu, Onosho and Kotoeko correct, but lost 2 Points on Tochinoshin, and only one on Takararuji

(Yes, they really like him :-))

I could only blame me on Terutsuyoshi/Tohakuryu.

For all other mistakes I would do the same again :-D

So 65 if counted correctly.

Sounds really good, but I am not sure if this will really be about 13 wins, or just about 10.

 

Pitinosato

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