GTB invitation- Kyushu 2022- Results!!

[Athenayama 791]

10 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

It may come down to Midorifuji's placement.  I know why people are thinking M2w for him, but that line of reasoning seems wrong to me.  General trends indicate that he should be behind Ichinojo (Komusubi usually win tiebreakers over maegashira, and are generally dropped as though they're M(-1)), and by the numbers he's 3 places behind Wakamotoharu (M1e vs M2w), which I don't think is enough to make up for the joi privilege.  

I even dropped Midorifuji at M5 but I"m so bad at this game that I probably just jinxed you.

[Yarimotsu 459]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

It may come down to Midorifuji's placement.  I know why people are thinking M2w for him, but that line of reasoning seems wrong to me.  General trends indicate that he should be behind Ichinojo (Komusubi usually win tiebreakers over maegashira, and are generally dropped as though they're M(-1)), and by the numbers he's 3 places behind Wakamotoharu (M1e vs M2w), which I don't think is enough to make up for the joi privilege.  

There's actually one precedent I decided to follow above others because of the similar logjam: Nagoya 2011. Tochinoshin falls 6-9 from Kw, Yoshikaze 7-8 from M1w, Yoshikaze lands at M2 while Tochinoshin has to settle for M4e. https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201107

I think the current situation is similar enough to warrant use of this precedent, but whether the banzuke committee decided the same is a different matter.

[Gurowake 3,791]

8 minutes ago, Yarimotsu said:

There's actually one precedent I decided to follow above others because of the similar logjam: Nagoya 2011. Tochinoshin falls 6-9 from Kw, Yoshikaze 7-8 from M1w, Yoshikaze lands at M2 while Tochinoshin has to settle for M4e. https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201107

I think the current situation is similar enough to warrant use of this precedent, but whether the banzuke committee decided the same is a different matter.

The problem with that precedent is that it's over 10 years old.  It might be the exact same situation, but more recent precedents involving Komusubi demotions relative to maegashira are going to be more applicable.

[Gurowake 3,791]

That said, I'm not particularly confident in my choice here; just that it seems most likely given what's happened in the recent past.

[Wakawakawaka 120]

Here's what I got, probably erring on the side of leniency for demotions. Hoping Terutsuyoshi gets to hang on for one more tournament. When he's confident he's exciting. Hiradoumi had an impressive start too, I'm interested to see what he could do with another shot.

[Fujisan 529]

4 Sekiwakes not popular??? Oh dear!!!

Why's no one tell me? 

[Sumo Spiffy 466]

7 hours ago, Gurowake said:

It may come down to Midorifuji's placement.  I know why people are thinking M2w for him, but that line of reasoning seems wrong to me.  General trends indicate that he should be behind Ichinojo (Komusubi usually win tiebreakers over maegashira, and are generally dropped as though they're M(-1)), and by the numbers he's 3 places behind Wakamotoharu (M1e vs M2w), which I don't think is enough to make up for the joi privilege.  

Except... is he considered tied with Ichi? If you just move them a number of slots as they appear on the banzuke, then yes, but if you drop Ichi three actual places in the math (to M3W), he's behind Midori.

[Sumo Spiffy 466]

Day late, but got the ol' video up now:

I would post a pic of the final result, but I can't upload anything that takes up more than ~50 KB.

[Gurowake 3,791]

26 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Except... is he considered tied with Ichi? If you just move them a number of slots as they appear on the banzuke, then yes, but if you drop Ichi three actual places in the math (to M3W), he's behind Midori.

As i mentioned before, I think the general rule is to at first treat them as M(-1), not M0, and then give them tiebreakers over anyone else, including perhaps ending up on top of those who might be one or two spots ahead of them by the numbers as calculated that way, but fought mostly weaker competition.  Look at the placements of 6, 5, and 4 win Komusubi over the last 2 years.  I did look up all of them just now to confirm that this was the general rule, but i was simply going by memory when making my picks, and I generally think general rules developed by studying recent banzuke are generally more predictive than looking back 10 years for identical situations.

Edited October 25, 2022 by Gurowake

[Tigerboy1966 1,287]

I have a feeling that Abi is going to hurt me...

[Reonito 1,189]

My post and prediction are finally up.

[Tigerboy1966 1,287]

There looks to be a higher than usual level of agreement in the guesses posted here, so I am thinking we will have a high-scoring GTB.

Looking at my half-empty glass, however, I am also thinking that some perfectly good guesses will end up getting an MK.

[Sumo Spiffy 466]

14 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

There looks to be a higher than usual level of agreement in the guesses posted here, so I am thinking we will have a high-scoring GTB.

Looking at my half-empty glass, however, I am also thinking that some perfectly good guesses will end up getting an MK.

It's mostly turning into a game of "Guess Abi (and sort of Wakamotoharu) on the Banzuke!"

[Hidenotora 63]

Here's mine, very similar to Reonito's and most people's, so this will either be one where everyone scores roughly the same, or one or two brave guys guess some insane precedent-defying weird decision correctly.

 

[Seiyashi 4,059]

Quick question - why does everyone have Tamawashi as K1w over Daieishō? My thinking is that Tamawashi is the one considered to have forced the extra slot versus Daieishō's normal demotion to komusubi as a 7-8 sekiwake, so Daieishō should be K1w, but everyone seems to be going the other way.

[Sumo Spiffy 466]

20 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Quick question - why does everyone have Tamawashi as K1w over Daieishō? My thinking is that Tamawashi is the one considered to have forced the extra slot versus Daieishō's normal demotion to komusubi as a 7-8 sekiwake, so Daieishō should be K1w, but everyone seems to be going the other way.

I thought of this after submissions were closed but as I was finishing up my video, in case I wanted to make an edit acknowledging I might have been wrong, so I looked it up. I found:

• Since 2004 (which is when I usually start my searches from), every single sekiwake with a 7-8 record ended up in a situation where there were only two komusubi in the next basho. So, while it's possible some potential komusubi promotees were kept in maegashira due to the sekiwake taking the slot, nobody was given an extra komusubi slot with the sekiwake going to K1.
• Expanding the search further into the past, in situations with a demoted sekiwake and more than two komusubi, it wasn't at all strange to put the ex-sekiwake at K2.
• Expanding yet again to see what was done with ozeki dropping to sekiwake, it turns out that even when other rikishi are shifting around (ie. not a situation like this one, where Waka and Hoshoryu are solid at S1), ex-ozeki do get pushed down to S2.

What seems to be the case is that if a wrestler is demoted from one sanyaku rank to another, they take priority for claiming a main slot if there's a debate between them and someone potentially being promoted to the rank, but if that promotee is definitely going to get the rank (e.g. Tamawashi and Tobizaru this time), the demoted wrestler often gets put behind them.

Edited October 26, 2022 by Sumo Spiffy

[Seiyashi 4,059]

16 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

What seems to be the case is that if a wrestler is demoted from one sanyaku rank to another, they take priority for claiming a main slot if there's a debate between them and someone potentially being promoted to the rank, but if that promotee is definitely going to get the rank (e.g. Tamawashi and Tobizaru this time), the demoted wrestler often gets put behind them.

The question is what the committee considers "definitely going to get the rank". My impression of banzuke records is roughly as you have outlined, but what sticks in my mind is Abi's string of KKs in the second half of 2019 at komusubi, yet being stuck there because there were no vacancies at sekiwake. There was a discussion back then about whether Abi would be promoted to sekiwake and then the falling ōzeki stuffed at S2, but in the event Abi never made it to sekiwake then.

To me, that seems pretty indicative that the banzuke committee demotes first then promotes later. In favour of this interpretation is the fact that Tamawashi has a record that even under the more restrictive Daieishō precedent should be sufficient to force a haridashi sanyaku slot, so there's no difficulty justifying putting Tamawashi at K2.

[Reonito 1,189]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Quick question - why does everyone have Tamawashi as K1w over Daieishō? My thinking is that Tamawashi is the one considered to have forced the extra slot versus Daieishō's normal demotion to komusubi as a 7-8 sekiwake, so Daieishō should be K1w, but everyone seems to be going the other way.

Unless you're talking about KK incumbents, I don't think who ostensibly forced the extra slot comes into it—once the number and identify of komusubi is determined, they'll place them in the order of most to least deserving.

[Oshirokita 171]

8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Quick question - why does everyone have Tamawashi as K1w over Daieishō? My thinking is that Tamawashi is the one considered to have forced the extra slot versus Daieishō's normal demotion to komusubi as a 7-8 sekiwake, so Daieishō should be K1w, but everyone seems to be going the other way.

I put Daieisho at K1w and put the two promotees at K2.

i put Terutsuyoshi at M16w and demoted Hiradoumi.

Otherwise, I am pretty much the same as most guesses. I think small differences will make big effects in the results where everyone has similar banzuke decisions.

[Sumo Spiffy 466]

10 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

The question is what the committee considers "definitely going to get the rank". My impression of banzuke records is roughly as you have outlined, but what sticks in my mind is Abi's string of KKs in the second half of 2019 at komusubi, yet being stuck there because there were no vacancies at sekiwake. There was a discussion back then about whether Abi would be promoted to sekiwake and then the falling ōzeki stuffed at S2, but in the event Abi never made it to sekiwake then.

To me, that seems pretty indicative that the banzuke committee demotes first then promotes later. In favour of this interpretation is the fact that Tamawashi has a record that even under the more restrictive Daieishō precedent should be sufficient to force a haridashi sanyaku slot, so there's no difficulty justifying putting Tamawashi at K2.

Putting Tamawashi at K2 is definitely justifiable; I just don't think it's going to happen.

The thing about the Abi example is that he didn't do enough (or even come close) to forcing open an extra sekiwake slot. Tamawashi and Tobizaru did, at least according to known precedents (e.g. winning M1Es go up). And what the committee considers "definitely going to get the rank" is completely up to them, right? They're deciding who gets the rank. So, once they've determined everyone who's going to land at komusubi or sekiwake, only then do they choose the appropriate order. At least, that's the outcome history generally shows.

[Kaito 256]

Pretty boring entry from me.

Sanyaku - Went with consensus. I never actually enter it into my sheet because it usually requires little thought.

M2-M4 - This was the only thing that made sense to me, but I do think they hate to give sanyaku demotees a full demotion, even if the section seems overcrowded. I was looking at under-demoting Ichinojo at Midorifuji's expense somehow, because I feel like something like that will manifest, but I couldn't stomach it.

M8-M9 - Pretty standard here as well, but my first draft had Takarafuji first and Takanosho last, which I thought wasn't unreasonable. For consistency, I would've given Onosho similar leniency rather than overpromoting Chiyoshoma, so I had them in a close battle for M10W behind Abi.

Chiyoshoma/Abi and Kotoeko/Kotoshoho were the two decisions I spent the most time on, but still have no confidence in what I've done.

Wasn't really interested in changing anything else.

[Kintamayama 43,577]

So, I went with Tamawashi at SE2. Even if I fudge that, I'm still with 10 sanyaku so it shouldn't cost me much. Hiradoumi definitely demoted by me, although there are precedents of the lowest ranked guy going 7-8 and surviving. My logic is both Juryo 3 guys 8-7? Promote them both to M16, but don't shoot.. Abi will definitely cost me, and probably many others, come to think of it. I foresee a solid 5-10.

[Reonito 1,189]

1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

My logic is both Juryo 3 guys 8-7? Promote them both to M16

Where's Terutsuyoshi going in that scenario?

[Kintamayama 43,577]

9 hours ago, Reonito said:

Where's Terutsuyoshi going in that scenario?

15W. Makes sense to me almost like leaving a 7-8 Hiradoumi in Makuuchi. But as you know, I'm very good at this. Now that we're discussing this, it probably is totally wrong..

[Reonito 1,189]

6 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

15W. Makes sense to me almost like leaving a 7-8 Hiradoumi in Makuuchi. But as you know, I'm very good at this. Now that we're discussing this, it probably is totally wrong..

It's not crazy: 

Myogiryu

2018.03

M15w

6-9

2018.05

M16e