Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2022

[Kyokufuji 58]

Anyone other than Reonito confident that Atamifuji gets the Makuuchi promotion?

[Reonito 784]

2 minutes ago, Kyokufuji said:

Anyone other than Reonito confident that Atamifuji gets the Makuuchi promotion?

Why would this be in doubt? His case is not the strongest, but it's clearly the third-best in Juryo, and there are 3 no-doubt demotions.

[Seiyashi 3,540]

2 minutes ago, Kyokufuji said:

Anyone other than Reonito confident that Atamifuji gets the Makuuchi promotion?

Me. He's third in line with three must-demotes in makuuchi; it's a more obvious promotion than Hiradoumi's from the last banzuke. It's Tōhakuryū and Bushōzan I have a bit more doubts about because their records aren't that strong and their corresponding would-be demotees, Terutsuyoshi and Hiradoumi, can be kept with a bit of leniency.

[Tigerboy1966 1,054]

4 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

He has the physical tools, but I am not sure that his passive, standup style of sumo will cut it against harder makuuchi opposition

His physique gives him both advantages and disadvantages, a bit like Enho. It looks as though wrestlers are beginning to develop an "anti-Hokuseiho" strategy, in the same way that they adopted an "anti-Enho" approach. The question now is whether the big lad can find an anti "anti-Hokuseiho strategy" strategy.

[Koorifuu 506]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

It's unusual, and the cases of the others seem good enough to avoid this. I wonder how long he keeps trying to return to sekitori before hanging it up.

He looked distraught after his MK-sealing defeat @ 3-3. That looked to me like he's still got the fire within him, if not the body.

[Ack! 331]

16 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I think we will get 3 sekiwake and 4 komusubi.  IF there is a fourth sekiwake spot I would think that Tamawashi would be favourite over Kiribayama. Yes, he is old (although I wish I was 37!) and he blows hot and cold but his best is better than anyone else's best, and I am including Terunofuji in the "anyone else" category.

 

I agree this is the most likely outcome

[Ack! 331]

9 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

It looks very tight at the makunouchi/ juryo boundary. I have Terutsuyoshi and Hiradoumi hanging on by the last half-millimeter of their fingernails at the expense of Tohakuryu.

I was leaning toward Terutsuyoshi being salvagable, but after looking through the database, he is clearly demotable, and 8-7 at M3w is a promotable score to fill the spot.  The same scenario occurred in Haru 2008.  I do think Hiradoumi will survive, though.

[Seiyashi 3,540]

1 hour ago, Ack! said:

I was leaning toward Terutsuyoshi being salvagable, but after looking through the database, he is clearly demotable, and 8-7 at M3w is a promotable score to fill the spot.  The same scenario occurred in Haru 2008.  I do think Hiradoumi will survive, though.

I'm coming around to Terutsuyoshi being demoted in favour of Tōhakuryū, but I think Hiradoumi might also go down for Bushōzan. Based very impressionistically on just scrolling through old banzuke (because I haven't quite figured out how to control for spaces from the end of makuuchi rather than a fixed rank, if it is at all possible), 7-8 at makujiri seems to result in people going down even when there aren't corresponding J0s or better in jūryō (see Hatsu 2007, where J4 Wakanosato at 9-6 displaced makujiri 7-8 Ōtsukasa), and promotions from jūryō seem to be more a matter of sorting by rank/record rather than controlling strictly for J0 or better.

Although come to look at it, Churanoumi would also be a contender in that event, with an equal rank-record combination to Bushōzan (9-6 from J6w vs 8-7 from J4w), and there is at least one instance of a 9-6 from two ranks below bypassing a 8-7 (Hatsu 2005).

Either way both of these are quite borderline, and I wouldn't be surprised to see any combination of Terutsuyoshi and Hiradoumi going or not going down. I think at least one will go down, since Terutsuyoshi would have to be demoted to M16w at the most lenient but Hiradoumi must occupy that spot, so banzuke physics will see at least one of them so leniently treated that it's farcical if neither of them go down.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Tigerboy1966 1,054]

My take is that we have five men whose records at this basho would naturally place them at the top end of juryo: Atamifuji, Hiradoumi, Kagayaki, Terutsoyoshi and Tohakuryu. And there are four spaces available at the bottom of makunouchi. So four men are going to be lucky and one is going to end up where he probably belongs. I'm leaning towards giving the benefit of the doubt to the guys who competed in the higher division, which leaves Tohakuryu as the odd man out. It's not what I want to happen (I always like to see new faces) but I think that it could well work out this way.

[Hankegami 307]

Joining the debate concerning the Maakuchi/Juryo lift, if we are really going to have 3 Sekiwake and 4 Komusubi the last spot will be M16w again. Taking that as the divide, raw rankings should be (promotion candidates in green, demotable rikishi in red) Azumaryu (M15/KK+1), Kagayaki (J1/KK+1), Hiradoumi (J1/MK), Atamifuji (J2/KK), Tohakuryu (J2/KK), Terutsuyoshi (J2/MK-1), Bushozan (J3/KK), Tsurugisho (J4/MK-2), Mitoryu (J5/MK-2), Yukatayama (J5/MK-3).

Was this the case, it becomes clear that Hiradoumi cannot be jumped over by the present J3 duo, especially considering that his 7-8 historically gives him a chance to be not demoted. Of course, his MK means he is going to be jumped over anyway but within the Maakuchi ranking, while for demotion he ought to get precedence. Terutsuyoshi is in a far more precarious situation. As a M15 with a 6-9 score, he would be naturally placed at M18. Even giving him a hand, he would need a M17 spot to land on. However, the lowest spot available is likely M16e (M16w already occupied by Hiradoumi), just one full rank below his present one. This would be a very generous arrangement, especially on the light that the J3 duo's KK should give them precedence over a MK-1 aiming at their same rank. In theory.

Now, the Committee has always showed a general reluctance to over-promoting, preferring to under-demote instead. Even yet, Terutsuyoshi's case would require an unusual degree of leniency (from -3 spots to -1). I cannot find a way to query how many cases of 6-9 resulted in a -1 rank demotion, so I can only use math. For me, Terutsuyoshi is going down in absence of an acceptable M17 spot where to land him without causing a precedent.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Hankegami

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,060]

Terutsuyoshi himself went from M15e to M16w on a 6-9 record in 2019 and then got junyusho.

Its funny that the Komusubi situation has such a bearing on the M/J line. Will they disregard the numerical rank, fill out komusubi and just count up the number rikishi instead? 
Hiradoumi could get a rare numerical ‘promotion’ and still be at the bottom of makuuchi 

[Koorifuu 506]

1 hour ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Terutsuyoshi himself went from M15e to M16w on a 6-9 record in 2019 and then got junyusho.

Its funny that the Komusubi situation has such a bearing on the M/J line. Will they disregard the numerical rank, fill out komusubi and just count up the number rikishi instead? 
Hiradoumi could get a rare numerical ‘promotion’ and still be at the bottom of makuuchi 

Recently a trend with Kagayaki, as always.

7-8 in Kyushu 2017 from M12w. Retained the exact same rank, but Harumafuji's expulsion + the removal of the third sekiwake slot meant he got a net promotion of TWO slots with a MK! Went from having 7 guys below him (makujiri M16e) to 9 (makujiri M17e).

Edited September 26, 2022 by Koorifuu

[Hankegami 307]

2 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Terutsuyoshi himself went from M15e to M16w on a 6-9 record in 2019 and then got junyusho.

Thanks, this is enlightening. Anyway, even that time he had a 1.5 loss of rank, while this time it is more likely they cannot put him lower than M16e, with a 1.0 rank loss. Giving him M16w would almost surely mean they are going to demote Hiradoumi despite his upper mathematical placement - but he has a lower rank, always an important factor.

Almost coincidentally, I looked for Terutsuyoshi's 2019 adventures and I found out that our favorite salt thrower had the devil's luck - twice. He was 6-9 at M14e in Haru 2019, and was saved at M15e (exactly -1.0!), he doubled down 6-9 in Natsu and was kindly put at M16w as you reported. It turned out he wasn't the only lucky guy: in the same Haru 2019, Chiyoshoma did 7-8 at dead last M17e (basically Hidenoumi's position) and he was saved as well. This suggests we need some more context. Here we have my "raw placements" for Haru & Natsu 2019. Promotion candidates candidates in green, demotion candidates in red. Perspective positions by the numbers in italics, followed by the placements they actually got. Guys actually promoted and demoted are in bold.

Haru 2019

Spoiler

 

Shimanoumi (J1e, 13-2Y) M8/KK+5> M12e

Chiyomaru (J1w, 10-5) M14/KK+3> M13e

Kotoeko (M15e, 6-9) M16/MK-1> M15w

Daishoho (M16e, 7-8) M17/MK> M16e

Terutsuyoshi (M14e, 6-9) M17/MK-1> M15e

Tokushoryu (J4w, 9-6) J1/KK+1> M14e

Enho (J2w, 8-7) J1/KK> M14w

Chiyoshoma (M17e, 7-8) J1/MK> M17e

Ishiura (M15e, 6-9) J1/MK-1> M16w

Toyonoshima (M14w, 5-10) J2/MK-3> J1e

Takagenji (J4e, 8-7) J3/KK> J2e

Ikioi (M9w, 2-13) J3/MK-12> J1w

Wakatakakage (J5e, 8-7) J4/KK> J2w

Yukatayama (M16w, 3-12) J8/MK-5> J5e

Chiyonokuni (M12e, 0-0-15) J10/MK-14> J7w

 

Natsu 2019

Spoiler

 

Takagenji (J2e, 13-2Y) M8/KK+6> M10w

Chiyomaru (M13e, 7-8) M14/MK> M13e

Sadanoumi (M13w, 7-8) M14/MK> M13w

Tochiozan (M11w, 6-9) M14/MK-1> M12e

Kotoyuki (J6e, 11-4) M15/KK+4> M16e

Enho (M14w, 7-8) M15/MK> M14w

Yago (M12w, 6-9) M15/MK-1> M15e

Toyonoshima (J1e, 8-7) M16/KK> M16e

Terutsuyoshi (M15e, 6-9) J2/MK-1> M16w

Azumaryu (J4w, 8-7) J3/KK> J1w

Gagamaru (J7e, 9-6) J4/KK+1> J2w

Yukatayama (J5e, 8-7) J4/KK> J3w

Ishiura (M16w, 5-10) J5/MK-3> J2e

Tokushoryu (M14e, 4-11) J5/MK-4> J1e

Chiyoshoma (M16w, 5-10) J6/MK-3> J3e

Daishomaru (J8w, 8-7) J7/KK> J7w

 

From these examples it appears that a demotion/promotion process is a two-steps process. First - of course - there must be Maakuchi candidates with a demoting record. Second, there must be promotion candidates from Juryo with a perspective promotion record (even for a Juryo spot) higher than the rikishi they are expected to swap with. To clarify my point, down here I illustrate how swaps were apparently engineered in Haru and Natsu 2019. Left, the demotion candidates from Maakuchi. Right, their swapping counterparts from Juryo. The higher perspective placements are put in bold.

Haru 2019

Spoiler

 

M12e Chiyonokuni (J10/MK-14) > J1e Shimanoumi (M8/KK+12) swapped

M16w Yukatayama (J8/MK-5) > J1w Chiyomaru (M14/KK+3) swapped

M9e Ikioi (J3/MK-12) > J4w Tokushoryu (J1/KK+1) swapped

M14w Toyonoshima (J2/MK-3) > J2w Enho (J1/KK) swapped

M15e Ishiura (J1/MK-1) < Takagenji (J3/KK) NOT swapped

Since Takagenji (the next-highest Juryo KK) has a lower perspective placement than Ishiura (who has an actual demotion record), the latter remains in Maakuchi. Juryo promotees are limited to Shimamoumi, Chiyomaru, Tokushoryu, and Enho.

 

Natsu 2019

Spoiler

 

M17e Chiyoshoma (J6/MK-3) > J2e Takagenji (M8/KK+12) swapped

M14e Tokushoryu (J5/MK-4) > J6e Kotoyuki (M15/KK+4) swapped

M16w Ishiura (J5/MK-3) > Toyonoshima (M16/KK) swapped

M15e Terutsuyoshi (J2/MK-1) < Azumaryu (J3/KK) NOT swapped

Here is our precedent: since Azumaryu is anyway expected to be placed lower than Terutsuyoshi, the latter retains his Maakushi spot.

 

Let's use this same scheme for the post-Aki 2022 promotion/demotion pairings:

Aki 2022

Spoiler

 

M14w Yukatayama (J5/MK-3) > J2w Azumaryu (M15/KK+1) swap

M16e Mitoryu (J5/MK-2) > J4e Kagayaki (J1/KK+1) swap

M15w Tsurugisho (J4/MK-2) > J3e Atamifuji (J2/KK) swap

M15e Terutsuyoshi (J2/MK-1) > J3w Tohakuryu (J2/KK) swap???

A) M16w Hiradoumi (J1/MK) < J3w Tohakuryu (J2/KK) NOT going to swap

B) M16w Hiradoumi (J1/MK) < J4w Bushozan (J2/KK) NOT going to swap

 

While Terutsuyoshi remains a difficult case (both him and Tohakuryu should land at J2, yet with a MK Terutsuyoshi should be ranked lower), Hiradoumi here appears to retain his Maakuchi status because the last available Juryo rikishi to be ranked above him, Kagayaki, has already taken Mitoryu's spot. Even Atamifuji is prospected to be ranked behind him (but the will surely outrank him because Hiradoumi cannot move from dead end M16w), but this particular lucky guy is going to get Tsurugisho's spot instead.

In other words, it's all up to Isegahama-oyakata & friends. Technically speaking, Terutsuyoshi should go down as he is both slightly lower ranked than Tohakuryu and expected to land before Hiradoumi whether was he saved, that is a rikishi prospected to be higher than him. But under-demotion policies can always come in and decide that three demotions are enough and Terutsuyoshi is to stay, at this point necessarily at M16e.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Hankegami

[Sumo Spiffy 278]

32 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

In other words, it's all up to Isegahama-oyakata & friends. Technically speaking, Terutsuyoshi should go down as he is both slightly lower ranked than Tohakuryu and expected to land before Hiradoumi whether was he saved, that is a rikishi prospected to be higher than him. But under-demotion policies can always come in and decide that three demotions are enough and Terutsuyoshi is to stay, at this point necessarily at M16e.

I'm not clear on why this would be the case. Terutsuyoshi's math lands him at J2E; Tohakuryu's puts him at J2W. It's largely appeared that they do consider this a real difference, ie. even if you think that Tohakuryu would be given preference due to his better record were they the same rank, they're not considered the same rank. Maybe that's not the case over a long look at history, but it's certainly seemed to play out that way recently.

More than this, however, recent banzukes have clearly shown a preference for those who competed in makuuchi over those who competed in juryo. If Terutsuyoshi's going to land at M16E and Tohakuryu at J1E, it's going to be for this reason. (If Terutsuyoshi stops at M16E and Tohakuryu gets M16W over Hiradoumi, I'm going to be baffled AF.)

[Reonito 784]

9 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I'm leaning towards giving the benefit of the doubt to the guys who competed in the higher division, which leaves Tohakuryu as the odd man out. It's not what I want to happen (I always like to see new faces) but I think that it could well work out this way.

This particular new face I could do without. What's that German word? Oh yeah, "Backpfeifengesicht."

[Seiyashi 3,540]

2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

This particular new face I could do without. What's that German word? Oh yeah, "Backpfeifengesicht."

There are equivalents in Chinese and its associated dialects, expressed a bit more directly as "[being] owed a beating". Not that he's the only rikishi who is owed one from their performance on the dohyō this basho... 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 784]

37 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I'm not clear on why this would be the case. Terutsuyoshi's math lands him at J2E; Tohakuryu's puts him at J2W. It's largely appeared that they do consider this a real difference, ie. even if you think that Tohakuryu would be given preference due to his better record were they the same rank, they're not considered the same rank. Maybe that's not the case over a long look at history, but it's certainly seemed to play out that way recently.

More than this, however, recent banzukes have clearly shown a preference for those who competed in makuuchi over those who competed in juryo. If Terutsuyoshi's going to land at M16E and Tohakuryu at J1E, it's going to be for this reason. (If Terutsuyoshi stops at M16E and Tohakuryu gets M16W over Hiradoumi, I'm going to be baffled AF.)

We can analyze this all we want, but I think any of the three could end up in Juryo, and it's close enough and there's sufficient precedent to justify any decision that it's really going to come down to the precise discussion at the banzuke meeting, potentially with less objective considerations coming into play.

[Tigerboy1966 1,054]

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

What's that German word? Oh yeah, "Backpfeifengesicht."

That's kind of how I feel about Daishomaru.

Honestly THR can't complain... he needed 1 win from 3 to tie up promotion and he lost them all.

[Pitinosato 81]

eeehm, one question:

Abi has a "real" 0-0-15, no Covid-Kyujo ?

Pitinosato

[Seiyashi 3,540]

30 minutes ago, Pitinosato said:

eeehm, one question:

Abi has a "real" 0-0-15, no Covid-Kyujo ?

Pitinosato

Yeah. Persistent injuries to ankles and knees requiring surgery IIRC; Shikoroyama was quoted as saying he did Nagoya on painkillers and wanted to fight this basho but was ultimately advised against it. So he'll go for a bit of a ride back down the banzuke; M10 is approximately where the last few cases of 0-0-15 K1e have landed.

Edited September 30, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Fashiritētā 41]

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Yeah. Persistent injuries to ankles and knees requiring surgery IIRC; Shikoroyama was quoted as saying he did Nagoya on painkillers and wanted to fight this basho but was ultimately advised against it. So he'll go for a bit of a ride back down the banzuke; M10 is approximately where the last few cases of 0-0-15 K1e have landed.

Ahhh, that might explain his slipping issues in Nagoya .

 

[Reonito 784]

On 25/09/2022 at 12:43, Tigerboy1966 said:

Maybe Daishomaru? 3-4 at Ms3 will probably land him at Ms7 but there are precedents for wrestlers with that rank/record staying in the Makushita joi . I hope not, Daishomaru is one of those wrestlers who just rubs me the wrong way.

You were correct, sir: Daishomaru got the last spot at Ms5w, with my two contenders for that rank occupying Ms6. Asanoyama juuuust takes over as heyagashira: Ms4e to Asanowaka's Ms4w.