Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2022

[Seiyashi 3,540]

5 minutes ago, Kotononami said:

A Banzuke with 4 Sekiwake and 3 Komusubi has already happened in History?

The Query form of Sumo reference is for most part of it a mystery to me.  

 

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=199211

Yes, but that's not the problem; the problem is whether Kiribayama has done anything to deserve S2w.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=196009

This is an old banzuke, but even with 3 sekiwake holding position that doesn't mean a KK komusubi will be brought up for reasons of symmetry alone.

[Hankegami 308]

33 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I did float the possibility yesterday but it's not unusual for 8-7 komusubi to be stuck when there is no normal sekiwake slot open - see Abi for most of 2019.

You certainly mean 9-6. Anyway, leaving a 9-6 Komusubi at his place indeed appears to have been the norm during the last years (see the last results in this query). I agree that Kiribayama will likely be just "promoted" to K1e.

Also, I am more prone to believe that Tamawashi will be made Komusubi alongside Tobizaru, rather than Sekiwake. It's not just about Daieisho's precedent. Tamawashi (understandably given his age) goes hot and cold, and his record plenty shows KK alternated to MK. Were he be put to Sekiwake and have a bad basho, he could occupy a precious Komusubi slot next January. However, doing a MK at Komusubi is far less troublesome to deal with for the Committee.

[Seiyashi 3,540]

11 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

You certainly mean 9-6. Anyway, leaving a 9-6 Komusubi at his place indeed appears to have been the norm during the last years (see the last results in this query). I agree that Kiribayama will likely be just "promoted" to K1e.

Also, I am more prone to believe that Tamawashi will be made Komusubi alongside Tobizaru, rather than Sekiwake. It's not just about Daieisho's precedent. Tamawashi (understandably given his age) goes hot and cold, and his record plenty shows KK alternated to MK. Were he be put to Sekiwake and have a bad basho, he could occupy a precious Komusubi slot next January. However, doing a MK at Komusubi is far less troublesome to deal with for the Committee.

Yeah, 9-6, my bad. Forgot about today's win. The old rule is 11+ for a komusubi to justify an extra sekiwake slot which in this case Kiribayama has not done. Last basho was a cockup because of Daieishō's COVID absence, so apparently the banzuke committee decided to have the best of both worlds as a result - promote 8-7 Hōshōryū, but keep Daieishō as sekiwake as if he hadn't been absent.

I don't know that the banzuke committee thinks about likely future performance when deciding ranks, though.

Edited September 25, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Kotononami 76]

12 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I don't know that the banzuke committee thinks about likely future performance when deciding ranks, though.

Kiribayama won against all three Ozeki and two Sekiwake. He may have a good chance of promotion. We'll see...

[Seiyashi 3,540]

4 minutes ago, Kotononami said:

Kiribayama won against all three Ozeki and two Sekiwake. He may have a good chance of promotion. We'll see...

Two of the ōzeki might as well not exist, considering they barely managed a KK between them. AFAIK quality of opponent really only matters for ōzeki and yokozuna promotions, not everything else, otherwise the banzuke committee will have a headache on their hands looking at every bout.

If you wanted to go down that route you could also say he lost to two M1 and an M2, especially two M1s who were widely considered overpromoted due to the banzuke chaos last time round. Losing in an "unacceptable" way has been the same type of logic used to deny ōzeki promotions - see Takakeishō's basho before he secured his promotion, where he lost to Gōeidō.

Edited September 25, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Tigerboy1966 1,054]

I think we will get 3 sekiwake and 4 komusubi.  IF there is a fourth sekiwake spot I would think that Tamawashi would be favourite over Kiribayama. Yes, he is old (although I wish I was 37!) and he blows hot and cold but his best is better than anyone else's best, and I am including Terunofuji in the "anyone else" category.

 

[Hankegami 308]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

I don't know that the banzuke committee thinks about likely future performance when deciding ranks, though.

I ran a couple searches. There are only 10 instances in which an upper Maegashira winning a Yusho was given a Sekiwake slot (here). A couple things immediately catch the eye. First, they are all strong yusho (14-1 or 13-2). Second, only in three cases a second Sekiwake slot was opened to accommodate the winner. In the other seven cases they gave him the ordinary S1w slot evidently available. Third, most cases are rather old, although the last was Tochinoshin in 2018. In this case it is however evident that my "no Sekiwake for hot-and-cold guys" did not apply, as Tochi was alternating 10+ victories to MK at the time.

A wider search concerning just Maegashira directly promoted to Sekiwake regardless of a Yusho (here) resulted in a much longer list however characterized by a common constant: they were promoted to fill a S1w Sekiwake slot. The first cases concerning the opening of a HD date back to the early 1990s, same as a couple cases from the earlier search.

A last search concerned how upper Maegashira who won a Yusho were usually promoted. The list for itself only yielded 34 results (here). Some cross-checking shows a more "friendly" promotion policy around 1990-2000 (paradoxically the apex of the 'Futahaguro scare' for Yokozuna promotions) with Yusho winners being even a bit over-promoted by the numbers. The modern approach however appears to be that an upper Maegashira Yusho gives precedence for an ordinary Sekiwake slot (S1e/w) whenever available or to a Komusubi slot (even HD) whenever all the S1e/w positions are already filled.

In other words, Tamawashi (and Tobizaru) will be most likely accommodated to a K2 position. But no, they apparently do not really consider previous performances, my bad.

Edited September 25, 2022 by Hankegami

[Seiyashi 3,540]

FWIW Asahi believes Daieishō will fall out of sanyaku altogether, but that banzuke draft of theirs looks downright weird. 6-9 K1w Ichinojō going to M5? Kotonowaka (and other joi members) actually demoted half a rank? That's awfully suspicious.

 

Edited September 25, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Akinomaki 35,621]

For a long time I was used to sekiwake getting demoted to maegashira with a 7-8, because it happened frequently when I started to follow sumo intensively, but that custom had disappeared in the last decades - the last one was 30 years ago. Maybe the Asahi guy also mentally still is in that period - but we never know what the new shimpan crew will do.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=s&form1_wins=7&form1_year=1960-now&form2_rank=m

18 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

FWIW Asahi believes Daieishō will fall out of sanyaku altogether, but that banzuke draft of theirs looks downright weird.

[Gurowake 3,528]

23 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

FWIW Asahi believes Daieishō will fall out of sanyaku altogether, but that banzuke draft of theirs looks downright weird. 6-9 K1w Ichinojō going to M5? Kotonowaka (and other joi members) actually demoted half a rank? That's awfully suspicious.

I think it's safe to ignore any prediction that has a demotion of 8-7s when there is any other reasonable alternative, which is usually just not promoting people as much as they perhaps should be.

[Hankegami 308]

41 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

FWIW Asahi believes Daieishō will fall out of sanyaku altogether, but that banzuke draft of theirs looks downright weird. 6-9 K1w Ichinojō going to M5? Kotonowaka (and other joi members) actually demoted half a rank? That's awfully suspicious.

 

This prospected banzuke strictly reflects the scoring order "raw": M1e Daieisho (*K/MK); M1w Takayasu (-3/KK+3); M2e Wakamotoharu (M1/KK+2); M2w Kotonowaka (M1/KK); M3e Meisei (M1/KK); M3w Sadanoumi (M2/KK+2); M4e Ura (M2/KK); M4w Midorifuji (M2/MK); M5e Ichinojo (M2/MK-1); M5w Hokutofuji (M3/KK+2).

However, as @Gurowake just pointed out, a KK is understood to preserve a wrestler's rank. Part of this oddity could be explaining by hypothesizing that the Committee will regard incomplete scores from last basho as "requiring confirmation" (Ozekiwake style). Daieisho MK? Treat him as a 7-8 Komusubi he should have been. Kotonowaka barely KK? Well, that's actually a 7-8, son. That's not possible, though, because this banzuke is punishing hard even previous Yusho winner Ichinojo, who had a hell of KK last basho. So that's all in the air. The only good thing of this banzuke is that gives better positions to good scorers otherwise under-promoted (Wakamotoharu, Sadanoumi, Hokutofuji).

I am not familiar with Japanese sport journalism. Is Asahi usually considered a trustworthy insider source for sumo?

Edited September 25, 2022 by Hankegami

[Gurowake 3,528]

8 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Kotonowaka barely KK? Well, that's actually a 7-8, son.

Given that Kotonowaka was 7-2 when he was forced out, I don't see how this makes any sense at all.

[Seiyashi 3,540]

11 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Is Asahi usually considered a trustworthy insider source for sumo?

I don't know about insider per se, but Asahi is one of the big names of Japanese journalism - like the Guardian in the UK or WaPo in the US: not saying they reflect the same views or have the same prestige as against other outlets in those countries, but the brand as a whole is respectable.

The chap manning the sumo desk, on the other hand... dunno. They seem to have been told off since they've since released a banzuke that freezes the 8-7 KKs, although they still have Ichinojō at M5. But either way I think their banzuke drafts illustrate the difficulty with not having 3 sekiwake and 4 komusubi in the next banzuke.

Edited September 25, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 3,528]

We'll be getting two rikishi from the same heya in sanyaku, Daieisho and Tobizaru, which hasn't happened since Takanosho left sanyaku.  I wasn't expecting it to be Tobizaru that would cause it though; my assumption would have been Endo if it was someone from Daieisho's heya.

[Hankegami 308]

3 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Given that Kotonowaka was 7-2 when he was forced out, I don't see how this makes any sense at all.

Well, we are talking about the NSK. Logic is not their forte  Jokes aside, it was just a school hypothesis. I agree it doesn't make sense, although Kotonowaka had to retire before he was technically KK. But my "smoking gun" proving it's an improbable interpretation is Ichinojo's case instead.

[Seiyashi 3,540]

Just now, Hankegami said:

Well, we are talking about the NSK.

Technically it's not them this time, it's our wild guess explanation of what Asahi ineptly thinks they'll mysteriously do.

[Reonito 788]

9 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Based on the simple fact that there have never been 6 rikishi at either sekiwake or komusubi alone, I think the banzuke committee will avoid being that brave. 

And Takayasu just lost, so it's academic, I think.

And Hoshoryu won, so we don't need to set any new precedents.

[Reonito 788]

8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

The question is which of Tsukahara or Shōnannoumi goes up at Gōnoyama's expense - Tsukahara won the exchange bout, but Shōnanoumi has the stronger rank-record combination. (It's unlikely that Gōnoyama stays since he lost the exchange bout.)

We've seen losers of supposed exchange bouts stay in recent years, and 6-9 at M12e is as minimally demotable as it is possible to be, so a reprieve for Gonoyama wouldn't surprise me at all. At least we should find out on Wednesday.

[Akinomaki 35,621]

1 hour ago, Hankegami said:

I am not familiar with Japanese sport journalism. Is Asahi usually considered a trustworthy insider source for sumo?

They belong to the NSK affiliated press. The Asahi group is a founder of Abema, with staff and experience from their Asahi TV daily ozumo digest, that stopped 2003. Asahi shimbun is one rank higher than the sports papers and for that related to Nikkan sports, which is known for a few errors in their data - Hochi (from Yomiuri) is a bit more trustworthy, I don't know if they post their prediction on the net though. I never have checked if the Asahi prediction was very exact, but usually they were not that far off as the one here seems to be.

[Tigerboy1966 1,054]

It looks very tight at the makunouchi/ juryo boundary. I have Terutsuyoshi and Hiradoumi hanging on by the last half-millimeter of their fingernails at the expense of Tohakuryu.

Juryo was very interesting and entertaining this time around and should be even better in November. A block of very talented young wrestlers are working their way up. Tochimusashi took the yusho this time but Kitanowaka and Hokuseiho should also be in makunouchi this time next year. And Kinbozan looks like an absolute beast.

[Reonito 788]

29 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

It looks very tight at the makunouchi/ juryo boundary. I have Terutsuyoshi and Hiradoumi hanging on by the last half-millimeter of their fingernails at the expense of Tohakuryu.

Juryo was very interesting and entertaining this time around and should be even better in November. A block of very talented young wrestlers are working their way up. Tochimusashi took the yusho this time but Kitanowaka and Hokuseiho should also be in makunouchi this time next year. And Kinbozan looks like an absolute beast.

And Atamifuji will make his Makuuchi debut! I don't think the kid is quite ready, but he is learning fast in an ideal training environment.

[Reonito 788]

What are we thinking for the next Makushita joi?

1. Asanowaka (Juryo MK)

2, 3. The two of Gonoyama, Tsukahara, and Shonannoumi who aren't in Juryo (Juryo MK/Ms joi KK)

4. Fujiseiun (Ms joi KK)

5. Daiseiryu (7-0 Y)

6 wins: 6. Shiden, 7. Asanoyama

5 wins: 8. Tokihayate (Ms14 Tochikamiyama)

4 wins: 9. Hakuyozan (Ms9 Chiyonoo)

Seems like the last slot comes down to the two in parentheses. Did I miss anyone?

Edited September 25, 2022 by Reonito

[Tigerboy1966 1,054]

10 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Did I miss anyone?

Maybe Daishomaru? 3-4 at Ms3 will probably land him at Ms7 but there are precedents for wrestlers with that rank/record staying in the Makushita joi . I hope not, Daishomaru is one of those wrestlers who just rubs me the wrong way.

[Kashunowaka 269]

35 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

It looks very tight at the makunouchi/ juryo boundary. I have Terutsuyoshi and Hiradoumi hanging on by the last half-millimeter of their fingernails at the expense of Tohakuryu.

Juryo was very interesting and entertaining this time around and should be even better in November. A block of very talented young wrestlers are working their way up. Tochimusashi took the yusho this time but Kitanowaka and Hokuseiho should also be in makunouchi this time next year. And Kinbozan looks like an absolute beast.

After Hokuseiho blasted through the lower divisions and eventually made a belated juryo debut, I had quite high hopes of him. I have adjusted my expectations a little after this basho: there seem to be some glaring holes in his sumo. He has the physical tools, but I am not sure that his passive, standup style of sumo will cut it against harder makuuchi opposition. Still plenty of time for him to improve though.

[Reonito 788]

5 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Maybe Daishomaru? 3-4 at Ms3 will probably land him at Ms7 but there are precedents for wrestlers with that rank/record staying in the Makushita joi . I hope not, Daishomaru is one of those wrestlers who just rubs me the wrong way.

It's unusual, and the cases of the others seem good enough to avoid this. I wonder how long he keeps trying to return to sekitori before hanging it up.