Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2022

[Seiyashi 3,502]

If I did the query right, the last time that there was no interchange between makuuchi and jūryō was Hatsu 1998. The query has Natsu 2011, but then there were a ton of forced retirements and hence promotions, so it doesn't count for the scenario I have in mind, which is everyone in makuuchi saves themselves and everyone in jūryō fails to impress.

[Yamanashi 3,040]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

everyone in jūryō fails to impress.

2011 Natsu: 6 gone from Makuuchi and 9 from Juryo due to the scandal; yeah, they failed to impress.

[Barutokai 32]

Thanks for this thread (effort etc.)

[Tigerboy1966 1,053]

I do hope Gonoyama gets relegated after a blatant henka in the exchange bout against Fujiseiun today.

I blame Takakeisho. When they say that ozeki are supposed to set an example I don't think this is what they mean.

[Seiyashi 3,502]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 14

Makuuchi
12-2: M3e Tamawashi
11-3: M4w Takayasu

With the relative collapse of the sanyaku this basho, it falls to two ex-sanyaku stalwarts to lead the race for the yūshō. Tamawashi, with 13 basho at junior sanyaku and a prior yūshō under his belt, put away Tobizaru with a straightforward nodowa-based crush out in two shoves. As for Takayasu, with 15 junior sanyaku basho and 15 ōzeki basho, but still searching for his first yūshō, he dispatched Hōshōryū with a straightforward "stand them up and slap them down" hikiotoshi to keep alive his hopes of a playoff tomorrow. 

With the front leaders becoming clear by day 10, the torikumi makers have wisely delayed the Tamawashi - Takayasu bout for senshūraku, making for a neat resolution to the basho (or at least that's the obvious bout that we're all expecting). If Tamawashi wins, he takes the yūshō; Takayasu must beat Tamawashi twice tomorow to first force the playoff and then the yūshō. I'd be happy for Takayasu to finally take his first yūshō, although my money would be on Tamawashi, between having yūshō experience, needing to win only once, and not being a notorious choker/eternal bridesmaid.

Annoyingly, with neither man being part of the sanyaku, it's likely that the yūshō decider won't be part of the sanyaku soroibumi, which is a further indication of the sad state of things.

Jūryō
11-3: J14e Tochimusashi Y

Both Tochimusashi and Hokuseihō lost today, the former to a KK-seeking Atamifuji who finally made it, and the latter to a 6-7 Kōtokuzan seeking to stave off MK. But Hokuseihō needed to win out to have a hope of tying level with Tochimusashi on 11-4 on senshūraku. With his closest competitors now all at 9-5, the final day's results are immaterial and Tochimusashi joins a fairly exclusive club of 42 men that have won the jūryō championship on their debut. The last five men to have done it were Endō, Terunofuji, Ichinojō, Mitakeumi, and Tomokaze, and other illustrious names like his senpai Tochinoshin and former yokozuna Musashimaru, Kotozakura, and Chiyonoyama also appear in that list, so Tochimusashi is almost certainly worth keeping an eye on as more than just an ex-amateur flash in the pan.

As for Hokuseihō, his loss today (and a whole bunch of wins in upper jūryō without a total collapse in lower makuuchi over the past few days) will put paid to any outside hopes of promotion to makuuchi. Nonetheless, with stablemate Enhō MK, he will become Miyagino heyagashira next basho, and he will try to win tomorrow to secure the jūryō jun-yūshō. It's a pity the DB doesn't track jūryō jun-yūshō; two jūn-yūshō finishes in his first two "real" jūryō basho is still fairly decent, even if not the level of success that some were hoping for, but it's weirdly in line with his status as high school banzuke ōzeki. At this rate, a couple more basho will see him finally make his makuuchi debut (or even maybe one with a good result and some banzuke luck).

Edited September 24, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 3,502]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 14:

Sanyaku/joi

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
(X)	5-5-4	Terunofuji	Y
(O)	9-5	Takakeisho	O	Shodai	4-10	(X)
			O	Mitakeumi	4-10	(X)
(O)	10-4	Wakatakakage	S	Hoshoryu	7-7	(1)
(X)	6-8	Daieisho	S
(X)	0-0-14	Abi	K	Ichinojo	6-8	(X)
			K	Kiribayama	8-6	(O)
(O)	9-5	Tobizaru	M1
(X)	8-6	Kotonowaka	M2
(O)	12-2	Tamawashi	M3
			M4	Takayasu	11-3	(O)

Not much more clarity in this section of the banzuke, other than Kiribayama's win speaking for at least one komusubi slot. Daieishō won to keep alive his hopes of limiting his fall to komusubi, whereas Hōshōryū failed to secure his sekiwake spot today and will have to try again tomorrow. If both of the non-confirmed sekiwake lose tomorrow, then the junior sanyaku would actually be neatly filled out as Wakatakakage - Mitakeumi and Kiribayama - Hōshōryū, but this is without accounting for Tobizaru and Tamawashi, and to a lesser extent, Takayasu.

As for would-be promotees, Kotonowaka's loss today definitely puts him behind Takayasu in the promotion queue. The best he can now do is 9-6 and stiffing 9-6 M2es at M1w seems to have been a theme of the past couple of times where there wasn't space in the banzuke to put them any higher, and it's not like there's much space this time either.

With Tobizaru probably forcing an extra slot alongside the eventual yūshō winner, the question is what happens to whichever of Takayasu and Tamawashi that doesn't take the yūshō. In Takayasu's case, that's pretty clear: if he loses tomorrow in regulation for an 11-4 J, he's highly unlikely to be getting sanyaku. Historically that has been enough for a sanyaku promotion when there was space, but the most troubling precedent for him is also the most recent: Takanoshō went 11-4 J from the same rank in Natsu and made it no higher than M1w, due to there being insufficient space in sanyaku and the joi records overall not being so strong as to force extra sanyaku spots. 

It's less clear for Tamawashi if he goes 12-3 D. There has literally only been one case in the past of an M3 with 12 wins, and on top of one data point not making an adequate sample size, that's also a fairly dated precedent. If Tamawashi goes 12-3 D that means Takayasu would have won the yūshō, so it's likely that priority for an extra sanyaku slot will go to Takayasu over Tamawashi and Tamawashi will therefore not be promoted, but that's only my guess based on the generally parsimonious way that the banzuke committee treat extra promotions. 

All in all, we're looking at almost certainly 6 confirmed members of the lower sanyaku: Wakatakakage, Mitakeumi, Hōshōryū, Kiribayama, Tobizaru, and Tamawashi/Takayasu. Hōshōryū might be an unfortunate demotion out of sanyaku altogether if he loses and the committee really want to make space, although no 7-8 sekiwake has gone lower than komusubi in the last 30 years, and the last instance of that had an absurd amount of upward pressure on the junior sanyaku - i.e. three future yokozuna with double digit records clamouring for the spots alongside a KK M1e. I don't think this banzuke has quite that same pressure. Daieishō will probably be a 7th if he wins tomorrow, and Takayasu/Tamawashi might be an eighth only if the banzuke committee are on a symmetry blitz and/or Daieishō loses, although probably not if it results in K3 (there has never been K3, although there has once been S3).

Some possible (though not exhaustive) variants of lower sanyaku:

• S1e Wakatakakage, S1w Hōshōryū, S2w Mitakeumi, K1e Kiribayama, K1w Tobizaru, K2e Tamawashi/Takayasu
• S1e Wakatakakage, S1w Mitakeumi, K1e Kiribayama, K1w Hōshōryū, K2e Tobizaru, K2w Tamawashi/Takayasu
• S1e Wakatakakage, S1w Mitakeumi, S2w Kiribayama, K1e Hōshōryū, K1w Daieishō, K2e Tobizaru, K2w Tamawashi/Takayasu
• S1e Wakatakakage, S1w Mitakeumi, S2w Kiribayama, K1e Hōshōryū, K1w Tobizaru, K2e Tamawashi/Takayasu, K2w Takayasu/Tamawashi
• (highly unlikely) S1e Wakatakakage, S1w Hōshōryū, S2e Tamawashi/Takayasu, S2w Mitakeumi, K1e Kiribayama, K1w Daieishō, K2e Tobizaru, K2w Takayasu/Tamawashi

And for the trivia notes: 6 junior sanyaku is rare enough, the last instance being in 2019 and the second to last in 2006. 7 junior sanyaku is even rarer, last happening in 1992, and 8 junior sanyaku is even worse, last happening in 1962, and only happening 4 times in history in general. Unless the banzuke committee is ridiculously stingy, this is probably a banzuke to keep if you're a rare banzuke collector. And if the expanded sanyaku performs mediocrely next basho with a couple of very strong performances from e.g. Kotonowaka and Wakamotoharu, then we could be in for more of the same treat/headache next basho.

Makuuchi/jūryō

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
(1)	5-9	Ichiyamamoto	M13	Oho	7-7	(O)
			M14	Yutakayama	4-10	(X)
(1)	6-8	Terutsuyoshi	M15	Tsurugisho	4-10	(X)
(X)	5-9	Mitoryu	M16	Hiradoumi	7-7	(1)
			J1
			J2	Azumaryu	8-6	(O)
(O)	8-6	Atamifuji	J3	Tohakuryu	8-6	(~)
(O)	9-5	Kagayaki	J4	Bushozan	7-7	(~)

With their losses today, Tsurugishō, Yutakayama, and Mitoryū (in that order) are all but certain to head down with indefensible records (especially as the number of KKs - and hence promotable - records in upper jūryō suddenly doubled today). Hiradoumi might yet join them with a loss tomorrow from the makujiri position (unless he is saved by M17e reappearing due to Mitakeumi's demotion and lower sanyaku being kept at 6, same as this basho). Ichiyamamoto and Terutsuyoshi on paper have demotable records, their results putting them at a non-existent M17 for now, but it's quite borderline due to a combination of rank and lack of strong jūryō results, and they can almost certainly save themselves with wins tomorrow (Terutsuyoshi arguably needing his more than Ichiyamamoto).

That makes it between 3 to, probably at most, 5 slots opening up in lower makuuchi depending on tomorrow's results. The front runners currently are, in that order, Kagayaki, Azumaryū, Atamifuji, and Tōhakuryū, although this will change if some of them win and others don't. Bushōzan might nurse a hope of promotion with a win tomorrow and a loss by all doubtful makuuchi records, although he's low enough and they're high enough that I doubt he's going up this time even in that best case scenario.

Jūryō/makushita

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
(1)	6-8	Gonoyama	J12
			J13	Tochimaru	2-12	(X)
			J14
			Ms1	Roga	4-2	(O)
			...
	5-2	Tsushimanada	Ms4	Tsukahara	3-3
	4-3	Fujiseiun	Ms5	Shonannoumi	4-2

Nothing changes from yesterday's prediction of switching absent Asanowaka and Tochimaru for Rōga and Tsushimanada, since most of lower jūryō decided not to leave it to the last minute to save their ranks (or, as East Asians would put it, "hugging Buddha's leg at the eleventh hour", meaning to seek a miracle of divine intervention when you really should have gotten off your ass and down to business earlier). Fujiseiun lost his interdivisional bout today against Gōnoyama (who probably saw the writing on the wall and henka-ed to attempt to erase said writing), so purely on that basis, it seems that Gōnoyama will be saving his rank after all (unless he's given another exchange bout against Tsukahara tomorrow and that's held strictly against him). 

Edited September 24, 2022 by Seiyashi

[lackmaker 406]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Ichiyamamoto and Terutsuyoshi on paper have demotable records, their results putting them at a non-existent M17 for now

Not yet demotable records

[Hankegami 304]

6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

As for Hokuseihō, his loss today (and a whole bunch of wins in upper jūryō without a total collapse in lower makuuchi over the past few days) will put paid to any outside hopes of promotion to makuuchi. Nonetheless, with stablemate Enhō MK, he will become Miyagino heyagashira next basho, and he will try to win tomorrow to secure the jūryō jun-yūshō. It's a pity the DB doesn't track jūryō jun-yūshō; two jūn-yūshō finishes in his first two "real" jūryō basho is still fairly decent, even if not the level of success that some were hoping for, but it's weirdly in line with his status as high school banzuke ōzeki. At this rate, a couple more basho will see him finally make his makuuchi debut (or even maybe one with a good result and some banzuke luck).

I ran a few queries out of curiosity. I first checked for 10-5 Juryo newcomers or better and looking whether it was a jun-yusho (by the way, the query registers doten), then for 10-5Y Juryo bashos without doten with 9-6 newcomer runner ups. Last, I gave a look to past 9-6Y Juryo yushos (there were, although most are before 1949). I limited my research to the bashos from 1949 onwards, when a 15-day basho became the norm. Anyway, here are my results of Juryo jun-yusho newcomers, in chronological order. For a better reading, I put people who did never get out of Juryo in black, but I put future Maegashira in green and future San'yaku in dark red.

Spoiler

 

1949.05 - 10-5 J Yoshiiyama (best career rank M11)

1949.05 - 10-5 J Matsunobori (future Ozeki)

1949.10 - 11-4 D Yoshidagawa (best M13)

1951.05 - 11-4 J Itsutsunada (best M9)

1954.03 - 13-2 D Chikugoyama (best J2)

1956.01 - 10-5 J Atagoyama (future M3 Osawa)

1957.05 - 12-3 J Oginohana (future Sekiwake)

1957.11 - 12-3 J Toyonoumi (best M18)

1958.01 - 11-4 J Wakachichibu (future Sekiwake)

1958.05 - 11-4 D Wakamisugi (future Ozeki Daigo)

1958.05 - 11-4 D Tamahibiki (future M2 Shinkawa)

1959.01 - 12-3 D Oiteyama (best M6)

1960.03 - 11-4 J Sadanoyama (the 50th Yokozuna)

1961.05 - 11-4 D Kurikeyama (future M5 Kitsui)

1962.03 - 10-5 J Tamaarashi (best M4)

1965.11 - 10-5 J Maenoyama (future Ozeki)

1967.11 - 11-4 J Tochiisami (best M7)

1969.03 - 10-5 J Kurohimeyama (future Sekiwake)

1969.03 - 10-5 J Asahikuni (future Ozeki)

1969.07 - 10-5 J Manazuru (best J1)

1969.11 - 10-5 J Futatsuryu (future Komusubi)

1970.05 - 10-5 J Wajima (the 54th Yokozuna)

1971.01 - 11-4 J Wakaijishi (future Komusubi)

1974.11 - 10-5 D Takanosato (the 59th Yokozuna)

1975.03 - 10-5 J Itakura (future M11 Daigo)

1975.07 - 10-5 J Taiko (best M8)

1978.01 - 11-4 D Kagetora (best M11)

1978.03 - 11-4 D Kitanohana (best J4)

1978.07 - 10-5 D Nagaoka (future Ozeki Asashio IV)

1980.05 - 10-5 D Hokutenyu (future Ozeki)

1981.05 - 11-4 J Koboyama (future Sekiwake)

1981.07 - 9-6 J Nishinofuji (best J10)

1983.07 - 10-5 D Masurao (future Sekiwake)

1983.11 - 11-4 D Konishiki (future Ozeki)

1986.01 - 10-5 J Enazakura (best M1)

1986.09 - 10-5 J Tochinowaka (future Sekiwake)

1987.05 - 10-5 J Nankairyu (best M2)

1988.07 - 10-5 D Kyokudozan (future Komusubi)

1990.11 - 10-5 J Naminohana (future Komusubi)

1991.05 - 10-5 J Wakashojo (future Sekiwake)

1992.07 - 10-5 J Tochinofuji (best M11)

1992.11 - 10-5 J Tomonohana (future Komusubi)

1993.01 - 10-5 J Asanonami (future J3 Asota)

1993.01 - 10-5 J Asanowaka (best M1)

1993.01 - 10-5 J Hamanoshima (future Komusubi)

1995.11 - 10-5 J Sunahama (best J5)

1996.09 - 11-4 j Dejima (future Ozeki)

2002.01 - 11-4 J Ushiomaru (best M10)

2004.01 - 11-4 D Roho (future Komusubi)

2004.05 - 11-4 J Toyonoshima (future Sekiwake)

2004.09 - 10-5 J Wakakirin (best M9)

2005.07 - 10-4-1 J Yoshikaze (future Sekiwake)

2005.09 - 12-3 J Baruto (future Ozeki)

2006.05 - 10-5 D Oga (best J6)

2007.11 - 13-2 D Ichihara (future M13 Kiyoseumi)

2010.11 - 11-4 D Takayasu (future Ozeki)

2011.11 - 10-5 J Tokushoryu (best M2)

2013.07 - 10-5 J Osunaarashi (best M1)

2015.01 - 10-5 J Kagayaki (best M3)

2016.05 - 11-4 J Sato (present Ozeki Takakeisho)

2016.11 - 11-4 J Oyanagi (present Yutakayama, best M1)

2017.03 - 10-5 D Asanoyama (future Ozeki)

 

This "silver album" is a mixed bag, although the vast majority of these promising youngsters did at least visit Maakuchi and quite a few also had very successful careers. Names include future Yokozuna Sadanoyama, Wajima, and Takanosato, and a number of Ozeki including Konishiki, Baruto, Takayasu, Takakeisho, and Asanoyama. Some stories even require further explanation. For instance, Juryo newcomer Takanosato came runner-up in a basho also presenting Juryo newcomer Chiyonofuji, who ended up third place with 9-6.

By the way, Takayasu "Bridesmaid" Akira showed his unique talent even back then. He was first promoted in Kyushu 2010 and lost a four-way playoff involving also Toyohibiki, Tochinowaka and eventual Juryo Yusho winner Kaisei. Will he be able to break his duck tomorrow?

Edited September 24, 2022 by Hankegami

[Gurowake 3,514]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

If Tamawashi goes 12-3 D that means Takayasu would have won the yūshō, so it's likely that priority for an extra sanyaku slot will go to Takayasu over Tamawashi and Tamawashi will therefore not be promoted, but that's only my guess based on the generally parsimonious way that the banzuke committee treat extra promotions. 

Winning the yusho very rarely matters for banzuke placement.  I think the likelihood of Takayasu being promoted and Tamawashi not being promoted is effectively zero.  Takayasu cannot have a better record than Tamawashi, and he's a rank and a half lower.  The Yusho is not going to make up for that.

[Gurowake 3,514]

As for what else we might say about the sanyaku promotions, it's clear Tobizaru will be promoted, but depending on the exact results, I don't think anyone else can be considered a lock.  We did see from last basho that you don't need a 13-2 from M1w to force Komusubi promotion, as with Hoshoryu being promoted to Sekiwake they didn't absolutely need to promote Ichinojo.  That's a good sign for Tamawashi, though being a half rank further back than Ichinojo was and not facing either Komusubi, there's certainly a reason to think that he'll be denied if he loses.  If he wins though, that's a lot harder to deny.

Takayasu will almost certainly need to win.  While if both he and Tobizaru lose, Takayasu still looks like a better candidate by the numbers, Takayasu faced only 5/9 sanyaku and 2/4 upper sanyaku, and that can certainly be enough for him to be considered a weaker candidate and not go up to Komusubi at 11-4 even if Tobizaru is with a 9-6.  As to whether he does get promoted with a win, I don't think I can say anything for certain.  In that case it might depend on how the rest of the banzuke shakes out; if they think the sanyaku looks nicer with him in it, they'll promote him.  If he's going to be a 6th Komusubi in an 11 man sanyaku, that might be a bit too far.

I'm of the opinion that 10 sanyaku feels like the optimum number, with 9 being next best.  Anything less than 9, particular the 7 that we could theoretically get, feels like it's just going to create problems in the maegashira ranks, especially with this upcoming banzuke.  11 sanyaku is a slight problem as well though, with there being only as many maegashira in the top 16 as there are needed for matches against sanyaku, which creates a very sharp cutoff in terms of matchmaking between the top 16 and everyone else, much more than normal at least.  Thus I think they'll avoid going that high when they're not forced to with 7 upper sanyaku or similar, and they'll stop at 10 sanyaku if there are any borderline promotions.

It seems unlikely they'll drop 7-8 Komusubi down to maegashira. It's been 30 years since they did it, and if you compare the last time they did it (after Kyushu 1992) to last basho, if they used the 30-year-old method, they would have dropped Abi to maegashira for this tournament.  You could argue the previous time it happened (after Hatsu 1992) was much more similar to this basho, with a bunch of strong maegashira performances and a KK M1e, and that led to a 7-8 Sekiwake even going to M2e, but the previously-mentioned situation makes it appear they are staying away from doing it.  There have been other opportunities since then to do it as well, and they haven't.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 3,514]

For Makuuchi <-> Juryo:

Yutakayama, Tsurugisho, and Mitoryu are toast, with at least one more loss than what would make them demotable under normal circumstances, and there being plenty of KKs in the top of Juryo now.  Ichiyamamoto, Terutsuyochi, and Hiradoumi are on the bubble, but even if they lose they might survive due to there not being strong enough Juryo records.  While possible, it's unlikely that Kagayaki, Azumaryu, Atamifuji, and Tohakuryu all win, and that would be needed to have 4 normal promotable records, but their records now are probably all strong enough to force down any of the bubble rikishi should they lose.  There's no one else that seems to have a shot at promotion in Juryo, with the next best being Bushozan or Churanoumi, followed by Hokuseiho and Hidenoumi.  All of them would be at least 2 wins short of normal promotable records, which would be a stretch given they'd be compared to rikishi with only the bare number of demotable losses.

As to the order or promotions and demotions, the order from Juryo should be clear.  They're currently in the order presented above, and anyone who wins will be above anyone who loses.  Since any of them can pass the others, no one is a lock on promotion, though all but Tohakuryu would be in for sure with a win.  The order of the remaining demotions from Makuuchi is less clear.  If Hiradoumi and Terutsuyoshi both lose, the latter technically has the worse rank/record combo by the numbers, but Hiradoumi has nowhere to go down to on the current banzuke.  However, there's plenty of precedent that 7-8s can stay at the same rank; the only problem here would be if they expand the sanyaku (it's certainly possible) and his rank disappears.  Other than in that case, he should be ahead of Terutsuyoshi and Ichiyamamoto if the rikishi being compared both lose.  Between the latter two when both lose, it's a toss-up.  I'd hope they would give the better outcome to Ichiyamamoto on account of his 6-2 from last basho being completely ignored, but I doubt that will be a factor.  Isegahama being chief shimpan will likely matter more, unfortunately.

There are no matches between any rikishi reasonably in contention.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 3,514]

For Juryo <-> Makushita

Asanowaka is presumably headed for demotion since his absence was not due to being contagious if I understand it correctly.  He is ranked high enough that he'd be possible to save if there were absolutely no one to take his place, but that's not the case with 4 KKs so far in promotion zone of Makushita.  Tochimaru is also clearly toast, and the two will definitely be replaced by new Juryo Tsushimanada and Roga.

The only rikishi on the bubble is Gonoyama, and he's facing a 3-3 Ms4w Tsukahara.  Normally I might find it a bit of a stretch to promote a 4-3 Ms4w to replace someone minimally demotable in Juryo, not only by number of losses, but by placement within the band of there being an equal number of losses needed for demotion by the numbers.  The other problem with that exchange match is that Shonannoumi with a win would probably be a better promotion candidate than Tsukahara, though it would be very awkward to have the former promoted for the latter's win. 

They could have put Shonannoumi against Gonoyama as the exchange bout, with Tsukahara and Roga against two other Juryo rikishi, though perhaps putting Tsukahara, who wouldn't be promoted ever under this plan, against a rikishi staying in Juryo might not have been something they thought appropriate.  Optimally in this situation they'd put Tsukahara against someone for sure leaving Juryo, but there's literally no such rikishi to put him against, with one of the demotions out of the tournament and the other in his heya.  So while I initially thought this plan would be definitely preferable, the do-beya nature of the at-first-obvious Tsukahara match makes it a little more dubious.

So while the interdivisional match is probably a straight-up exchange bout, there's enough loose ends surrounding it that makes me question whether the shimpan will treat it as such.  I'd really feel bad for Shonannoumi, a rikishi I've been following almost his entire career, if he were to get to 5-2 and be passed over for promotion by a 4-3 only 1 rank ahead of him, simply because they decided to put that rikishi into a Juryo match instead of him, when there was a potential plan that he'd be the one in the exchange match.

[Gurowake 3,514]

5 hours ago, lackmaker said:

Not yet demotable records

Well, he has them marked as (1), not (X), and I think he meant demotable records in the sense that they need to win to not have demotable records, such that they need to act to prevent demotion.  I agree that it's nonstandard usage around here though.

[Gurowake 3,514]

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

That makes it between 3 to, probably at most, 5 slots opening up in lower makuuchi depending on tomorrow's results.

I have no idea where you got 5 from here.  There are only 4 reasonable promotion candidates from Juryo, but if you stretch it to 5, I don't see why you wouldn't stretch if to 6.  Bushozan and Churanoumi are extremely unlikely to get promoted, but I don't see why you'd consider it reasonable for one to be promoted but not both, when the same basic comparisons would be made.  I think you're continuing to discount extremely unlikely situations despite considering some very unlikely situations.  You should generally first mention what's most likely to happen, and then if venturing beyond that, consider everything that's at least within reason, and not draw a line somewhere and say anything beyond that is too unlikely.  If it might happen, it might happen.

(I edited my post as Seiyashi was quoting me.  The same sort of thing appears as was quoted, but worded differently.)

Edited September 24, 2022 by Gurowake

[Seiyashi 3,502]

4 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

In this case, you continue to operate on the assumption that you can discount the extremely unlikely possibilities, but you really shouldn't in this analysis. 

Yeah this was the root of my error. I kind of overlooked Churanoumi because I'd sort of assumed that between the three bubble rikishi, at least one would win, and yet another might be saved by Bushōzan not KKing.

Also, out of reacts today, but thanks very much for the guidance for how to do this up in future.  I have learnt a lot this basho.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 771]

13 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I do hope Gonoyama gets relegated after a blatant henka in the exchange bout against Fujiseiun today.

I blame Takakeisho. When they say that ozeki are supposed to set an example I don't think this is what they mean.

Pretty typical for these exchange bouts. Kanno (Tochimusashi) henka'd Kaisei to clinch promotion last time.

[Reonito 771]

9 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

so it's likely that priority for an extra sanyaku slot will go to Takayasu over Tamawashi and Tamawashi will therefore not be promoted

I don't see how they could promote an M4 and not promote an M3 with the same record, yusho notwithstanding.

[Reonito 771]

11 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

S1e Wakatakakage, S1w Mitakeumi, S2w Kiribayama, K1e Hōshōryū, K1w Daieishō, K2e Tobizaru, K2w Tamawashi/Takayasu

How do we feel about

S1e Waka, S1w Mitakeumi

K1e Kiribayama (8-6) K1w Tamawashi (12-3 Y)

K2e Takayasu (12-3 D) K2w Tobizaru (9-6)

K3e Hoshoryu (7-8) K3w Daieisho (7-8)

if that set of results materializes? Too may komusubi? No real case to move any to extra sekiwake. Who misses out?

[Gurowake 3,514]

52 minutes ago, Reonito said:

How do we feel about

S1e Waka, S1w Mitakeumi

K1e Kiribayama (8-6) K1w Tamawashi (12-3 Y)

K2e Takayasu (12-3 D) K2w Tobizaru (9-6)

K3e Hoshoryu (7-8) K3w Daieisho (7-8)

if that set of results materializes? Too may komusubi? No real case to move any to extra sekiwake. Who misses out?

With that set of results I'd probably say "too bad" to Takayasu.  12-3 from M4 just isn't quite enough if it were to mean 11 sanyaku.  It would be fine for 10 sanyaku though.  I don't know if they think like this, but I certainly do for the RotoSumo banzuke.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Gurowake

[Seiyashi 3,502]

Based on the simple fact that there have never been 6 rikishi at either sekiwake or komusubi alone, I think the banzuke committee will avoid being that brave. 

And Takayasu just lost, so it's academic, I think.

Edited September 25, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 3,502]

Yūshō recap, Day 15

Makuuchi
13-2: M3e Tamawashi Y
11-3: M4w Takayasu

It was a fairly good bout to cap the yūshō race with. Tamawashi and Takayasu got in a few good blows against each other, but once Tamawashi got his hands on Takayasu's throat, the end was nigh. A few more shoves and Takayasu went out over the bales, securing Tamawashi his second yūshō and a place in the record books as the second-oldest yūshō winner (behind Tachiyama at 38 years 9 months), and oldest since the Shōwa period. Nonetheless, Takayasu gets a sanshō for his efforts, although likely not a repromotion to sanyaku.

Jūryō: 11-4 J14e Tochimusashi
Makushita: Ms36e Daiseiryū
Sandanme: Sd78e Ōshōumi
Jonidan: Jd4w Takahashi (playoff win over Chiyodaigō despite being battered to within an inch of his life)

Jonokuchi: Jk16w Ōtani

Edited September 25, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 3,502]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 15

Sanyaku/joi

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
(X)	5-5-5	Terunofuji	Y
(O)	10-5	Takakeisho	O	Shodai	4-11	(X)
			O	Mitakeumi	4-11	(X)
(O)	11-4	Wakatakakage	S	Hoshoryu	8-7	(O)
(X)	7-8	Daieisho	S
(X)	0-0-15	Abi	K	Ichinojo	6-9	(X)
			K	Kiribayama	9-6	(O)
(O)	10-5	Tobizaru	M1	Midorifuji	7-8	(X)
(X)	8-7	Kotonowaka	M2	Meisei	8-7	(X)
(O)	13-2	Tamawashi	M3	Ura	8-7	(X)
(X)	6-9	Nishikigi	M4	Takayasu	11-4	(X)
	5-10	Takarafuji	M5	Sadanoumi	9-6	(X)
(X)	10-5	Wakamotoharu	M6	Endo	7-8
	6-9	Aoiyama	M7	Onosho	5-10
	7-8	Tochinoshin	M8	Hokutofuji	10-5	(X)

The sanyaku picture neatened itself out quite remarkably on the last day. Wakatakakage (restarting an ōzeki run with 11 wins) and Hōshōryū will keep rank, joined by S2w Mitakeumi as a consequence of his 4-11 while kadoban. Daieishō will join Kiribayama, Tobizaru, and Tamawashi at the komusubi rank; most likely in the order Kiribayama, Daieishō, Tobizaru, and Tamawashi, although Tobizaru and Daieishō might swap places. That makes for a total of 7 junior sanyaku and 10 sanyaku overall; a pretty rare banzuke.

Ichinojō's loss also made the joi a lot less knotty than it could have been. Takayasu will share M1 with Kotonowaka. Meisei and Midorifuji will take M2, with Ura and Ichinojō at M3. Wakamotoharu and Sadanoumi will be a bit hard done by to be stuck at M4, but there's not much space for them to go any higher, and Hokutofuji and Nishikifuji should come up to M5.

Makuuchi/jūryō

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
(O)	6-9	Ichiyamamoto	M13
			M14	Yutakayama	4-11	(X)
(~)	6-9	Terutsuyoshi	M15	Tsurugisho	5-10	(X)
(X)	5-10	Mitoryu	M16	Hiradoumi	7-8	(~)
			J1
			J2	Azumaryu	9-6
	8-7	Atamifuji	J3	Tohakuryu	8-7
	9-6	Kagayaki	J4	Bushozan	8-7

Of the bubble rikishi from yesterday, Ichiyamamoto won to secure his rank, while Terutsuyoshi lost to arguably go ahead of Hiradoumi in the demotion queue. Despite Hiradoumi going 7-8 from M16, there is precedent for keeping 7-8s in the same rank, sanyaku will likely remain at 10 men so no rank-shifting shenanigans, and Terutsuyoshi now has a lower nominal rank of M18 compared to Hiradoumi's M17.

Either way, we are looking at 3 confirmed demotions - the doomed trio of Yutakayama, Mitoryū, and Tsurugishō, in favour of Azumaryū, Kagayaki, and Atamifuji. There may be up to two more swaps of Terutsuyoshi for Tōhakuryū and Hiradoumi for Bushōzan, although the two jūryō records are weak enough that it might just be justifiable keeping both of Terutsuyoshi and Hiradoumi in makuuchi. 

Jūryō/makushita

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
(X)	6-9	Gonoyama	J12
			J13	Tochimaru	2-13	(X)
			J14
			Ms1	Roga	4-3	(O)
			Ms2
			Ms3
(O)	5-2	Tsushimanada	Ms4	Tsukahara	4-3	(~)
(X)	4-3	Fujiseiun	Ms5	Shonannoumi	5-2	(~)

As noted yesterday by Gurowake and Reonito, putting Gōnoyama in another exchange bout against 3-3 Tsukahara caused some complications in the makushita exchange picture. Fujiseiun lost his exchange bout against Gōnoyama the day before, and with Shōnannoumi's win today, is now firmly out of the makushita promotion queue. The question is which of Tsukahara or Shōnannoumi goes up at Gōnoyama's expense - Tsukahara won the exchange bout, but Shōnanoumi has the stronger rank-record combination. (It's unlikely that Gōnoyama stays since he lost the exchange bout.)

Edited September 25, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Kotononami 76]

Kiribayama promotion to Sekiwake may also be a possibility don't you think?

[Seiyashi 3,502]

15 minutes ago, Kotononami said:

Kiribayama promotion to Sekiwake may also be a possibility don't you think?

I did float the possibility yesterday but it's not unusual for 8-7 komusubi to be stuck when there is no normal sekiwake slot open - see Abi for most of 2019. Mitakeumi taking an extra slot goes both ways; on the one hand it really cements that there is no space for Kiribayama, but on the other hand since there's no salary difference between sekiwake and komusubi and Kiribayama is already junior sanyaku, the banzuke committee may for reasons of symmetry and mercy decide to bring Kiribayama up. I think he only gets promoted if Takayasu also is (hence making 4 komusubi without Kiribayama) but that is a super long shot and I don't think it'll happen; as it is going to K1e from K2w is already a "promotion" of sorts.

Edited September 25, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Kotononami 76]

A Banzuke with 4 Sekiwake and 3 Komusubi has already happened in History?

The Query form of Sumo reference is for most part of it a mystery to me.