Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2022

[Seiyashi 3,415]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 12

Makuuchi
10-2: M3e Tamawashi
9-3: M1e Tobizaru, M4w Takayasu, M8w Hokutofuji, M10e Nishikifuji
8-4: O1e Takakeishō, S1e Wakatakakage, M10w Takanoshō, M12w Ryūden

The only predictable thing about basho lately (i.e. after Terunofuji ran out of steam from his yokozuna promotion) is how unpredictable they are. Tamawashi quite unexpectedly dropped his bout against Wakamotoharu today; his opening nodowa was not quite as damaging to Wakamotoharu's balance as he had hoped, and the subsequent pull attempt only added to Wakamotoharu's momentum in pushing him out. Tamawashi's loss means a whole bunch of 8-4s are theoretically back in it, although they'll only be involved if the yūshō line is a 11-4 or worse, and that implies a hell of a playoff. This pack includes Takakeishō, Wakatakakage, and surprisingly Takanoshō and Ryūden.

Sadly, neither of the 1-behind group from yesterday (Hokutofuji/Nishikifuji) managed to capitalise. Nishikifuji lost a slap-happy fest with Tobizaru with his back to the tawara most of the time, letting Tobizaru draw level, and Hokutofuji got henka-ed by Takakeishō in a bout where the ōzeki's KK was on the line. Takayasu on the other hand successfully did to Wakatakakage what Tamawashi had failed to do to his brother, maintaining a nodowa on Wakatakakage for most of the bout before suddenly yanking him down, and kept alive his faint hopes at a yūshō.

The arasoi unexpectedly getting bigger rather than smaller compared to yesterday makes things a bit complicated. Tomorrow, Tamawashi gets Nishikifuji, who could really open this whole thing up by winning. This is their first ever meeting, apparently, so it'll add another dimension of the unknown to the proceedings. Other intra-arasoi bouts are Tobizaru - Hokutofuji (dropping at least one of them to the 4-loss group) and Takakeishō - Wakatakakage (removing at least one of them from the arasoi, unless Tamawashi also loses again). The other three members of the arasoi, Takayasu, Takanoshō and Ryūden, are matched against rikishi in search of their KK: Kiribayama (7-5), Kotonowaka (7-5), and Endō (6-6) respectively; the latter two matches won't really matter too much unless Tamawashi also loses.

Jūryō
10-2: J14e Tochimusashi
8-4: J4e Kagayaki, J9e Hokuseihō, J3w Tōhakuryū
7-5: J3e Atamifuji, J6w Churanoumi, J8e Daiamami, J11w Kitanowaka, J12w Kinbōzan, J13e Ōshōma, J14w Takakentō

I don't know what Kagayaki thought he was doing, but that looked a bit more like shokkiri than honwari. In any case, Tochimusashi manages to go 2 clear with just three days left to go, and he has a chance to really cement it tomorrow against Tōhakuryū, who beat Hokuseihō to secure his KK. Mathematically, the 7-5 group are still in it, including Atamifuji who has failed to secure his KK for three days in a row now, and a whole motley crew near the bottom of the division who probably will be more concerned with their own KKs rather than the yūshō, especially J14w Takakentō.

Other than the aforementioned Tochimusashi - Tōhakuryū bout, the rest of the arasoi are more or less facing off against each other, with Daiamami the only exception (he gets 6-6 Chiyosakae). That should drop quite a few of them from contention, even if Tochimusashi doesn't get his 11th and wipe the entire 5-loss group off the board.

Lower divisions - pending Day 13 results

Edited September 22, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 3,415]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 12

Sanyaku/joi

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
(X)	5-5-2	Terunofuji	Y
(O)	8-4	Takakeisho	O	Shodai	2-10	(X)
			O	Mitakeumi	4-8	(X)
(O)	8-4	Wakatakakage	S	Hoshoryu	6-6	(2)
(3)	5-7	Daieisho	S
(X)	0-0-12	Abi	K	Ichinojo	4-8	(X)
			K	Kiribayama	7-5	(1)
(O)	9-3	Tobizaru	M1
(X)	7-5	Kotonowaka	M2
(O)	10-2	Tamawashi	M3	Ura	7-5	(X)
			M4	Takayasu	9-3	(O)
			M5	Sadanoumi	7-5	(X)
(X)	7-5	Wakamotoharu	M6
			M7
			M8	Hokutofuji	9-3	(3)

Not much more clarity in the sekiwake picture - Hōshōryū and Daieishō both won today to keep alive their hopes of retaining their rank. If they do, we will see a 4-sekiwake banzuke for the first time in more than 20 years (the last instance being Hatsu 2000), thanks to Mitakeumi's mandated drop as a result of his loss yesterday. Considering a 5-sekiwake banzuke has only happened once in history, that would make the shimpan really chary about any further sekiwake promotions.

If they don't win, then at least one of them will take over Ichinojo's vacated komusubi slot. The other regular komusubi slot is likely spoken for by Kiribayama, who won today and faces notorious choker Takayasu tomorrow. That makes things somewhat awkward for the trio of strong scores in the joi; Tobizaru, Tamawashi, and Takayasu all deserve a sanyaku promotion/repromotion by the numbers. As mentioned by Sakura yesterday, that more or less means that all the 7-5s cannot jump the trio of T-rikishi in the promotion queue, much less anyone with a worse score. Also, due to his low rank, unless he secures the yūshō and/or wins out, it's also looking increasingly unlikely that Hokutofuji will make a sanyaku return from M8. 

EDIT: Hōshōryū and Daieishō can still drop out of sanyaku altogether if they go worse than 7-8.

If Tobizaru somehow secures the yūshō, it's easiest to justify a single promotion to komusubi for him alone and jam Tamawashi and Takayasu at M1. It gets more troublesome if Tobizaru goes 11 and still doesn't win the yūshō, because historically that has forced extra komusubi slots plus someone else has a 11 or better that would also deserve a promotion. 8 sekiwake and komusubi have never happened in recent times - the only times this happened was a period in late 1961- early 1962, so this would seem to suggest that either we have a must-grab physical banzuke, or someone will be hard done by.

Either way, it seems quite likely that there will be at least either S2 or K2 ranks again on the next banzuke, unless the existing incumbents mount a spectacular collapse. Daieishō has yet to face Wakatakakage, but otherwise they've all fought each other and there won't be a forced win, so to speak.

Makuuchi/jūryō

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
			M11	Chiyotairyu	4-8	(1)
			M12
(1)	5-7	Ichiyamamoto	M13
			M14	Yutakayama	3-9	(~)
(2)	5-7	Terutsuyoshi	M15	Tsurugisho	4-8	(3)
(~)	4-8	Mitoryu	M16	Hiradoumi	6-6	(2)
			J1
			J2	Azumaryu	6-6	(3)
(2)	7-5	Atamifuji	J3	Tohakuryu	8-4	(1)
(2)	8-4	Kagayaki	J4

Hokuseihō's loss again today puts him out of reach of makuuchi this time; by the numbers the best he can do now is J2. That significantly simplifies the search for promotees to the top four ranks of jūryō, which is just as well considering Tsurugishō is hanging on for dear life, and Terutsuyoshi and Hiradoumi can still afford to drop at least one bout.

Arguably, Mitoryū and Yutakayama have now overtaken Tsurugishō in the demotion queue. Both are now demotable by the numbers even if they win out, although Yutakayama being Yutakayama, it's possible that a 6-9 might just save him if the sanyaku isn't expanded. That said, there's still a lack of clear promotable cases in jūryō, with the top 3 rikishi MK, and the only two KKs to date, Tōhakuryū and Kagayaki, being low enough that they can't quite yet force a promotion. Azumaryū and Atamifuji are still hunting for their KKs and might be able to force promotions if they hit 9 wins, although Atamifuji has the weakest case of the lot and will likely miss out on promotion this time.

Jūryō/makushita

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
			J5	Asanowaka	0-1-11	(X)
			...
(O)	6-6	Shimazuumi	J10	Tokushoryu	6-6	(O)
(O)	6-6	Chiyosakae	J11	Kitanowaka	7-5	(O)
(2)	5-7	Gonoyama	J12	Kinbozan	7-5	(O)
(O)	7-5	Oshoma	J13	Tochimaru	2-10	(X)
(O)	10-2	Tochimusashi	J14	Takakento	7-5	(1)
			Ms1	Roga	4-2	(O)
			Ms2
			Ms3	Daishomaru	3-4	(X)
(O)	4-2	Tsushimanada	Ms4	Tsukahara	3-3	(~)
(~)	4-2	Fujiseiun	Ms5	Shonannoumi	4-2	(~)
(X)	5-1	Shiden	Ms7	Tokihayate	4-2	(X)

In the (mangled) words of Jamie Hyneman, "they just keep winnin', y'know?" No less than 4 sekitori reached safety today (Shimaazumi, Tokushōryū, Kinbōzan, Ōshōma) and Takakentō moved to within 1 win of safety. The only outlier here would be Gōnoyama, who still needs to win two more to be absolutely safe, although the two guaranteed open slots in jūryō and a lack of strong promotion cases in makushita might mean that he could be safe even if he wins only, say 1 more.

On the flip side, makushita lost one more promotion candidate with Daishōmaru going MK to remove himself from contention. That makes the next best KK Tsushimanada at Ms4e; it's possible that a 5-2 Fujiseiun or Shōnannoumi might still jump him if he goes 4-3, but he is for now the frontrunner for the other jūryō spot alongside Rōga. The lack of a collapse in lower jūryō means that Shiden is almost certainly out of luck (since at most 2 more spots are opening and those would go to Tsukahara (if he wins), Fujiseiun, and/or Shōnannoumi), but will at least try for repromotion from slightly higher up the banzuke next time.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Jakusotsu 4,885]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

That makes things somewhat awkward for the trio of strong scores in the joi; Tobizaru, Tamawashi, and Takayasu all deserve a sanyaku promotion/repromotion by the numbers.

A bit premature for Takayasu, don't you think?

[Seiyashi 3,415]

8 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

A bit premature for Takayasu, don't you think?

Eh, true, he probably needs 1 more. Will he or won't he?

[Akinomaki 34,833]

15 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

As for the promotion hypothetical, my gut feel says Rōga has the stronger case, but it also feels like it wouldn't be difficult to force a demotion for a 7-0 Asanoyama unless the shimpan wanted to be particularly vengeful. Only one 7-0 from Ms15 and up has been denied promotion - it's a toss up whether that was bad banzuke luck or an unwritten rule that TD do not get the benefit of that automatic promotion. 

Ms1w were denied juryo promotions many times, one was Sokokurai, the last was Daiseido, and in 2008 Okinoumi (Fukuoka) with a 5-2. In the past even ms1e get stuck there. In 1960 when the lower divs were reduced from 8 to 7 bouts, Tokitsunami got stuck 2 times, first he stayed at m1w, next time only got to ms1e http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=ms1&form1_wins=4-7&form1_year=1958-now&form2_rank=ms

[Reonito 664]

10 hours ago, dingo said:

I've been trying to count the number of potential komusubi and my latest is 7. 

You're joking, but we could get Hoshoryu, Daieisho, Kiribayama, Tobizaru, Tamawashi, and Takayasu.

[Seiyashi 3,415]

5 minutes ago, Reonito said:

You're joking, but we could get Hoshoryu, Daieisho, Kiribayama, Tobizaru, Tamawashi, and Takayasu.

If we end up with an overstuffed sanyaku I don't see at least one of Tamawashi or Takayasu getting that promotion. It would be a very specific ending to the basho for there to be those 6 (something like Tobizaru sole JY at 11-4 and Tamawashi/Takayasu D at 12-3), and I don't know if the powers that be will simply hand out some really hard luck underpromotions instead.

That said, I generally agree there's likely to be an excess of junior sanyaku next basho, too.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 3,470]

Why does Kotonowaka have an X for the sanyaku race?  There's no one that's definitely ahead of him, even considering what matches are scheduled for Day 13.  Hokutofuji should be X'd though, because Tobizaru and Tamawashi are ahead of him, there's only at most 2 spots available, and he's not forcing an extra spot from that low. 

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

If they don't win, then at least one of them will take over Ichinojo's vacated komusubi slot.

What?  Even if they still had their head-to-head match remaining, which they don't, it could be won by Daieisho and they could both still go 6-9 and drop out of sanyaku.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Gurowake

[Reonito 664]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

It would be a very specific ending to the basho for there to be those 6 (something like Tobizaru sole JY at 11-4 and Tamawashi/Takayasu D at 12-3), and I don't know if the powers that be will simply hand out some really hard luck underpromotions instead.

I think Tobizaru, with at least 9 wins at M1e, has to go up already no matter what happens the rest of the way. I agree it would take 12 for either of the other two, but should that actually happen, it would be hard to deny them.

[Reonito 664]

10 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Why does Kotonowaka have an X for the sanyaku race?  There's no one that's definitely ahead of him, even considering what matches are scheduled for Day 13.  Hokutofuji should be X'd though, because Tobizaru and Tamawashi are ahead of him, there's only at most 2 spots available, and he's not forcing an extra spot from that low. 

And for that matter, Tamawashi and Takayasu should be ~ rather than O.

[Seiyashi 3,415]

20 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

If they don't win, then at least one of them will take over Ichinojo's vacated komusubi slot.

What?  Even if they still had their head-to-head match remaining, which they don't, it could be won by Daieisho and they could both still go 6-9 and drop out of sanyaku.

My bad on this one. Edited to reflect that they will go down if they finish 6-9.

7 minutes ago, Reonito said:

20 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Why does Kotonowaka have an X for the sanyaku race?  There's no one that's definitely ahead of him, even considering what matches are scheduled for Day 13.  Hokutofuji should be X'd though, because Tobizaru and Tamawashi are ahead of him, there's only at most 2 spots available, and he's not forcing an extra spot from that low. 

And for that matter, Tamawashi and Takayasu should be ~ rather than O.

My logic for X Kotonowaka was following Sakura's suggestion that Meisei, Ura, and Sadanoumi were all out. He is higher ranked than them, but how is no one else definitely ahead of him, though? If they both win out, Tamawashi should be M3(-11) whereas Kotonowaka is at best M2(-5). Even Takayasu would be M4(-9). As of now, Kotonowaka is M2(-2) whereas Tamawashi is M3(-8) and Takayasu M4(-6); surely both of them are definitely ahead of him unless he wins out and they lose out or something along those lines.

That would suggest to me ~ instead at best?

Admittedly, that's inconsistent with why Hokutofuji is marked 3 rather than X, and I agree Hokutofuji is most likely X. Apologies for being very imprecise with the use of O and X - still finding my bearings.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 664]

X = definitely failed to achieve goal; O = definitely achieved goal. So Roga appropriately gets an O, while Tsushimanada hasn't earned it yet, as others can pass him for the currently available slots if he loses. I think you might be using O as "would currently reach goal if rank order doesn't change."

Edited September 22, 2022 by Reonito

[Sakura 1,246]

4 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

surely both of them are definitely ahead of him unless he wins out and they lose out or something along those lines.

That's the issue. We don't know for sure what will happen. Theortically both he and Tamawashi could finish 10-5 and in such an event Kotonowaka would be ranked ahead of Tamawashi.

[Seiyashi 3,415]

So my takeaway from this is, none of the strong results in the joi can be marked O yet because too much is up in the air, including both their results and the performances of the incumbent sekiwake?

And to doublecheck if I got this right: Tamawashi can secure his place in the promotion queue over Kotonowaka by scoring at least one more win, since Kotonowaka won't be able to catch him then even if he wins out (i.e. a 11-4 Tamawashi will place over a best-case 10-5 Kotonowaka). Takayasu must at least match with Kotonowaka's results from here out as one loss where Kotonowaka has a win will make them draw level and Takayasu is in the inferior west side.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 664]

2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

So my takeaway from this is, none of the strong results in the joi can be marked O yet because too much is up in the air, including both their results and the performances of the incumbent sekiwake?

I'm comfortable giving Tobizaru an O, but no one else; not sure if everyone agrees.

[Gurowake 3,470]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

So my takeaway from this is, none of the strong results in the joi can be marked O yet because too much is up in the air, including both their results and the performances of the incumbent sekiwake?

And to doublecheck if I got this right: Tamawashi can secure his place in the promotion queue over Kotonowaka by scoring at least one more win, since Kotonowaka won't be able to catch him then even if he wins out (i.e. a 11-4 Tamawashi will place over a best-case 10-5 Kotonowaka). Takayasu must at least match with Kotonowaka's results from here out as one loss where Kotonowaka has a win will make them draw level and Takayasu is in the inferior west side.

As mentioned, Tobizaru should be a lock for sanyaku, and probably was with 8 wins, though that's more debatable.

The rest of this post is effectively correct.

As to considering the possibilities of extra slots being created, the first criteria should be whether anyone has a better rank/record combination than Tobizaru when he's going to be a forcing a 3rd slot.  If they do, they should definitely be promoted; that's pretty firm precedent.  If Tobizaru's slot is only the second, then we might expect additional slots will be denied even with a better rank/record, though given the likelihood we're in for a long period of time with few Ozeki, they might decide they need to loosen up just a little. 

Beyond that, I think the only thing that would guarantee an additional Komusubi would be a 13-2 from Tamawashi, which obviously would be equivalent to Tobizaru's best score, so this is a pretty narrow situation, especially seeing as they've yet to meet meaning it's quite likely that we cannot get both winning the rest.  Anything less just doesn't seem forceful enough, given that the only precedent we have of an extra promotion not using the first criteria was a 13-2 from M1w.

 

[Gurowake 3,470]

4 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

As to considering the possibilities of extra slots being created, the first criteria should be whether anyone has a better rank/record combination than Tobizaru when he's going to be a forcing a 3rd slot.  If they do, they should definitely be promoted; that's pretty firm precedent.

For those keeping track, this means we could get:

Tobizaru 9-6

Kotonowaka 10-5

Tamawashi 11-4 or better

Takayasu 11-4 or better

plus Hoshoryu, Daieisho, and Kiribayama.  So yeah, 7 is a real possibility using these criteria.  I might think in this case they'll dump the Sekiwake back to M1 with 7 wins rather than have an absurd number of Komusubi, plus deny Takayasu since he didn't have a full joi schedule so his wins don't count as much.  That would leave us with a more reasonable 4.

[Gurowake 3,470]

11 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

As to considering the possibilities of extra slots being created,

As I indicated in the main thread, there are already 2 Sekiwake slots accounted for on the next banzuke.  We could have up to 4 if the incumbent ones all get KK, but no one should be moving up based on no one being able to best Daieisho's 13-2 M1w that only made it to Komusubi, and Kiribayama being unable to get 11.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Gurowake

[Ripe 33]

8 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Ms1w were denied juryo promotions many times, one was Sokokurai, the last was Daiseido, and in 2008 Okinoumi (Fukuoka) with a 5-2. In the past even ms1e get stuck there. In 1960 when the lower divs were reduced from 8 to 7 bouts, Tokitsunami got stuck 2 times, first he stayed at m1w, next time only got to ms1e http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=ms1&form1_wins=4-7&form1_year=1958-now&form2_rank=ms

Yeah, but almost all of those Ms1's had only 4 wins... with 5 wins it's far, far rarer event. There was Fukuoka in 2008 and before that was Tochifuji in 1967. And Tochifuji's situation is... well, due to reduction in size of both Makuuchi and Juryo there was no promotion from Makushita and he actually ended up at Ms3e following a 6-1 score at Ms1e.

Meaning that there was only one real case of 5+ win Ms1 not being promoted to Juryo in last 55 years!

[Seiyashi 3,415]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 13

Makuuchi
11-2: M3e Tamawashi
10-3: M4w Takayasu, M8w Hokutofuji
9-4: S1e Wakatakakage, M10e Nishikifuji, M1e Tobizaru, M12w Ryūden

Very coincidentally, all three of the rikishi in the lead won by tsukiotoshi today, when their opponents practically botched their tachiais and placed themselves in a poor position. Both Nishikifuji and Tobizaru hit "off" at the tachiai, allowing their aites (Tamawashi and Hokutofuji respectively) to seize control from above and send them down. Kiribayama's loss wasn't as immediately shambolic but looked way worse; Takayasu came out all guns blazing at the tachiai, unbalancing Kiribayama, but then Kiribayama's attempt to retaliate with poor foot placement saw him get deflected almost immediately to the dohyō.

Of the remaining members of the arasoi, Ryūden won with a slow spin and push against Endō, while Wakatakakage got a lot of crowd love for inflicting payback on Takakeishō for his dastardly henka yesterday.

Tamawashi is up to fight Tobizaru tomorrow, with a slight H2H disadvantage of 1-2. If he wins, he eliminates the entire 4 loss group (and anyone that might join them) regardless of result. Of his chasers, Hokutofuji faces Wakatakakage (who must beat Hokutofuji and pray Tamawashi loses to have any more relevance in the arasoi), while Takayasu faces KK-seeking Hōshōryū. Given how Takayasu is reverting to his slightly chaotic, wild-type sumo, that should be a good matchup against Hōshōryū, who typically doesn't do well against messier opponents.

Jūryō
11-2: J14e Tochimusashi
9-4: J9e Hokuseihō

Tochimusashi's win on day 13 eliminated everyone who didn't have at least 9 wins by the end of the day. This included two of the 8-3s from yesterday who lost today, Tōhakuryū (who lost to Tochimusashi himself when a pull attempt went pear shaped) and Kagayaki (who had control in most of his match against Kinbōzan, but was expertly parried and diverted over the tawara in the crucial closing moments). The only person with a chance of still catching him is the last man who was 8-3 yesterday, Hokuseihō, who defeated an out-of-sorts looking Ōshōma to finally improve on his KK and keep alive the outside hopes of an 11-4 playoff, although that hope will die if Tochimusashi beats Atamifuji tomorrow, or if Hokuseihō, wrestling earlier, loses to Kōtokuzan.

Tochimusashi leads 1-0 in his H2H against Atamifuji, plus Atamifuji seems to be suffering from a KK choke, having tried and failed to secure his KK for three days straight now. On the other hand, maybe fourth time's the charm and Atamifuji finally gets his KK. As for the Kōtokuzan - Hokuseihō bout, this is their first meeting, and Kōtokuzan is also on a 3-loss streak, but doesn't quite have the same motivation of securing his KK, being at 6-7 and high enough that a 6-9 shouldn't send him that far south.

Lower divisions
Makushita: Ms36e Daiseiryū 7-0 Y
Sandanme: Sd78e Ōshōumi 7-0 Y
Jonidan: Jd44w Takahashi, Jd73w Chiyodaigō 7-0 D (playoff on senshūraku)
Jonokuchi: Jk16w Ōtani 7-0 Y

All but one of the lower divisions wrapped up their yūshō races today. Daiseiryū directly eliminated Yūma in a straightforward tsuppari bout, while Asonoyama had a much longer bout against a very in-form Hōkahō and fell to a sudden kirikaeshi.

In sandanme, injury returnee Ōshōumi defeated Wakanoshō in front of his shishō in his first full basho in a year to take his second toriteki yūshō and reattempt ascension up the makushita meat grinder. He was as high as Ms7w before injuries forced his benching and a near-restart of his career, so sandanme was a relative cakewalk. Here's hoping he stays injury free for a while.

In jonokuchi, Ōtani secured the yūshō. It won't be a surprise that he did, and neither will it be a surprise that he committed yet another dame-oshi. This time, he shoved Wakayamanaka off the dohyō and into the gyōji sitting below, earning him a disapproving look from Nishonoseki and another talking-to, this time from Asakayama. This guy is going to be a serious liability for Miyagino if someone doesn't knock some sense into him soon, whether or not a la Asahishō-style.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 3,415]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 13:

Sanyaku/joi

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
(X)	5-5-3	Terunofuji	Y
(O)	8-5	Takakeisho	O	Shodai	3-10	(X)
			O	Mitakeumi	4-9	(X)
(O)	9-4	Wakatakakage	S	Hoshoryu	7-6	(1)
(X)	5-8	Daieisho	S
(X)	0-0-13	Abi	K	Ichinojo	5-8	(X)
			K	Kiribayama	7-6	(1)
(O)	9-4	Tobizaru	M1
(~)	8-5	Kotonowaka	M2	Meisei	6-7	(X)
(O)	11-2	Tamawashi	M3	Ura	7-6	(X)
			M4	Takayasu	10-3	(~)
			M5	Sadanoumi	8-5	(X)

Ichinojō and Daieishō losing today clears up the sanyaku picture somewhat. There will no longer be 4 sekiwake required; whether or not the third slot is required depends on whether Hōshōryū can secure his KK. Neither komusubi spot is fixed yet; Kiribayama needs one more win and Daieishō needs to win out. If they don't secure those wins (and at least Daieishō is, IMO, highly unlikely to win out) then both standard komusubi slots are open for the strong performances in the joi.

Even if the standard komusubi slots don't open, it's possible that the NSK may decide to create haridashi slots anyway. Tobizaru has gotten more than a bare minimum KK at the highest maegashira position and should be undeniable, while Tamawashi cemented his place in the sanyaku repromotion queue today and made a second yūshō look increasingly likely, definitively displacing Kotonowaka who cannot possibly catch up now. Takayasu meanwhile stays ahead of Kotonowaka, but must keep pace to avoid being displaced. With limited slots opening in sanyaku (both standard sekiwake slots being spoken for and komusubi slots being fought over by either falling sekiwake, incumbent komusubi, or stronger joi results), this would eliminate Meisei, Ura, and Sadanoumi from contention for any sanyaku slots this time. 

Either way, we are most likely looking at between 5 to 7 junior sanyaku slots next basho. Wakatakakage and Mitakeumi have secured 2 sekiwake slots, while Hōshōryū can go no worse than 7-8 and should fall no lower than komusubi. If Hōshōryū secures his rank, then the two komusubi slots are nicely vacated for Tobizaru and Tamawashi (assuming he yūshōs - if he loses out it's a lot sketchier). If Kiribayama and Daieishō manage to secure the komusubi slots, though, we might just see two more slots created for Tobizaru and Tamawashi. Given the Daieishō precedent, it's most likely that they will be haridashi komusubi.

Makuuchi/jūryō

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
			M11	Chiyotairyu	5-8	(O)
			M12
(1)	5-8	Ichiyamamoto	M13
			M14	Yutakayama	4-9	(~)
(2)	5-8	Terutsuyoshi	M15	Tsurugisho	4-9	(X)
(~)	5-8	Mitoryu	M16	Hiradoumi	7-6	(1)
			J1
			J2	Azumaryu	7-6	(2)
(2)	7-6	Atamifuji	J3	Tohakuryu	8-5	(1)
(2)	8-5	Kagayaki	J4

The only definite change in this region is Azumaryū moving one win closer to KK, and Tsurugishō finally answering "will he won't he" with a loss today, confirming his demotion. Other than that, Mitoryū and Yutakayama both won today, staving off guaranteed demotion (although they may still go down should upper jūryō suddenly get a second win(d)), with Terutsuyoshi next up to be in the danger zone should he fail to win out. 

Their cases are however helped by the absolute paucity of strong records in upper jūryō. As the numbers now stand, only Tōhakuryū is arguably promotable and even so just barely; he would like to win out to make an ironclad case but 1 more will probably do it especially if Tsurugishō must go down. Atamifuji and Azumaryū are still one win away from KK and must win out to make promotion cases by the numbers (8-7s won't cut it, and even a 9-6 by Atamifuji is sketchy (similarly to Tōhakuryū) if there are insufficient outright demotions), and Kagayaki, despite securing his KK the earliest of this bunch, has also now stalled and also needs to win out to make a case for promotion. 

For Miyagino fanboys, it's worth noting that while the most probable scenario is a very restrained exchange between the two divisions, it's still possible that both lower makuuchi and upper jūryō suffer a phenomenal collapse in the last two days, causing more demotions but no immediately qualified candidates to fill them. Unsurprisingly for jūryō, the next best candidate currently is J9 Hokuseihō currently standing at 9-4 as there are literally no KKs yet in between Kagayaki and him, and a lot more 6-7s than there are 7-6s. This would be a stretch akin to going down to then J8 10-5 Hiradoumi last basho, although Hokuseihō will help his case if he continues to run up the score and end with 11-4.

Jūryō/makushita

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
(2)	5-8	Gonoyama	J12
(O)	7-6	Oshoma	J13	Tochimaru	2-11	(X)
			J14	Takakento	8-5	(O)
			Ms1	Roga	4-2	(O)
			...
(O)	5-2	Tsushimanada	Ms4	Tsukahara	3-3	(1)
(~)	4-2	Fujiseiun	Ms5	Shonannoumi	4-2	(~)
			...
(~)	5-1	Shiden	Ms7	Tokihayate	4-2	(~)

Not much has changed here, as most of lower jūryō won to reach safety. We're still looking at two confirmed demotions from zenkyū Asanowaka and Tochimaru's disastrous MK. Gōnoyama's loss today opens up the possibility of a third slot, but only definitely if he loses out; upper makushita is weak enough that one win might just save him, and two would definitely save his rank.

As for possible promotees, Tsushimanada's win today probably cements him as the frontrunner for the second slot, since no one immediately around him can do better. If Gōnoyama's berth opens, Fujiseiun and Shōnannoumi will overtake Tsukahara with a win, while Shiden is most likely out of luck given the extant KKs above him; see Nagoya 2019's banzuke for an example of Ms3/4 4-3s being prioritised for promotion over Ms7 6-1s.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Akinomaki 34,833]

11 hours ago, Ripe said:

Yeah, but almost all of those Ms1's had only 4 wins... with 5 wins it's far, far rarer event. There was Fukuoka in 2008 and before that was Tochifuji in 1967. And Tochifuji's situation is... well, due to reduction in size of both Makuuchi and Juryo there was no promotion from Makushita and he actually ended up at Ms3e following a 6-1 score at Ms1e.

Meaning that there was only one real case of 5+ win Ms1 not being promoted to Juryo in last 55 years!

Meaning there was a recent case, while there never was one of a denied promotion from the makushita top 30

[Sakura 1,246]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 13:

The only definite change in this region is Azumaryū moving one win closer to KK, and Tsurugishō finally answering "will he won't he" with a loss today, confirming his demotion.

I'm going to say that Tsurugisho should only be a ~ based on this. It's true that in each of the situations in that list there were plenty of more demotable rikishi, but what we have now is no-one having secured a  Makuuchi promotion. If he wins out and Mitoryu and Yutakayama lose one more he'd be behind them in the demotion queue. 

 

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

(8-7s won't cut it, and even a 9-6 by Atamifuji is sketchy (similarly to Tōhakuryū)

9-6 from J3 is not really sketchy. At the moment we have 3 rikishi with demotable records (imo in the following order currently - Tsurugisho, Yutakayama, Mitoryu) but we have no-one to replace them. If any of those three lose then they will find a replacement for him. If any of the Juryo rikishi get a promotable record then they will go up because we do have at least 3 rikishi with demotable records.

Let's say Atamifuji, Tohakuryu and Azumaryu go 9-6 but Kagayaki lose the rest of the way. In such an event Atamifuji, Tohakuryu and Azumaryu would all be promoted since we already have three rikishi with demotable records. 

It really depends on the number of demotable and promotable rikishi and whether or not it is impossible to save someone from demotion.

 

[Reonito 664]

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Tsurugishō finally answering "will he won't he" with a loss today, confirming his demotion.

He's not dead yet  

[Reonito 664]

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

As for possible promotees, Tsushimanada's win today probably cements him as the frontrunner for the second slot, since no one immediately around him can do better.

You can dispense with "probably"—it takes exceptional circumstances to promote someone with fewer than 7 wins from below the "invisible line" separating Ms5 and Ms6.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Reonito