Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Aki 2022

[Reonito 639]

1 hour ago, Sakura said:

If your target is not being demoted then for an M16 the target is  8 wins, for M14-15 7 wins, M12-13 6 wins etc. 

If your target is being promoted then the target is 8 for J1, 9 for J2-3, 10 for J4-5 etc. Of course, for promotions to Makuuchi we've often seen cases where rikishi get promoted a couple of wins short of target.

I run a simple spreadsheet that does exactly this math based on win totals so far.

[Reonito 639]

Also, just wanted to say how much I love this thread! Thank you @Seiyashi for getting it rolling.

[Seiyashi 3,372]

20 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I run a simple spreadsheet that does exactly this math based on win totals so far.

This sounds very automatable - I might just have found the rabbit hole to jump into for the next couple of days. 

[Reonito 639]

3 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

This sounds very automatable - I might just have found the rabbit hole to jump into for the next couple of days. 

I just copy and paste from sumodb, but I'm sure there's a cleaner solution, my coding skills don't run in the direction of data scraping.

[Chartorenji 152]

I know I started the last two basho threads but yesterday I tested positive for COVID, so couldn't really make it. Great job Seiyashi, way better then I could do it.  

[Seiyashi 3,372]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 11

Makuuchi
10-1: M3e Tamawashi
9-2: M8w Hokutofuji, M10e Nishikifuji
8-3: S1e Wakatakakage, M1e Tobizaru, M4w Takayasu

Tamawashi triumped in the battle of 9-1 leaders today, putting himself in pole position for a second makuuchi yūshō. Hokutofuji had no answer to a strong nodowa which unbalanced him from the start and saw him run out of the dohyō in short order, and it didn't help that his attempted belt grip seized only Tamawashi's sagari. If Tamawashi takes the yūshō, he will set/join at least two records in the process: oldest two-time champion, and only the second man to get two makuuchi yūshō while ranked as maegashira since Kotonishiki. (EDIT: his first yūshō was at sekiwake, so this is wrong.) and one of only 9 men who have two or more yūshō ranked below ōzeki.

While Nishikifuji dispatched hunter Chiyoshōma today, joi members Wakatakakage and Tobizaru hit their KKs today to keep pace. Wakatakakage defeated fellow sekiwake Hōshōryū to put the latter into panic mode in his shin-sekiwake basho, while Tobizaru met and beat fellow trickster Ura in what is probably the closest in sumo we'll ever get to a mirror match. Quite characteristically, albeit unfortunately, Takayasu lost a long and close-run bout against Myōgiryū to diminish his hopes of his first yūshō - again.

Tamawashi having defeated most of the sanyaku means that he has, on paper, the easiest schedule from here out, facing yūshō-irrelevant (but still wily) Wakamotoharu. Four of his chasers are matched against each other tomorrow: Wakatakakage takes on Takayasu, while Nishikifuji faces Tobizaru. Meanwhile, Hokutofuji faces Takakeishō, in search of his KK. This should put the cat amongst the pigeons a bit - we will definitely lose one of Wakatakakage or Takayasu from the arasoi, and possibly also Tobizaru as well. There's also the chance that Tamawashi goes 2 clear by Day 12 if Hokutofuji and Nishikifuji both lose, which, bar a home-stretch collapse, would all but assure Tamawashi of his second yūshō.

Jūryō
9-2: J14e Tochimusashi
8-3: J4e Kagayaki, J9e Hokuseihō
7-4: J3e Atamifuji, J3w Tōhakuryū

Alas Hokuseihō. A third loss to a KK-seeking Kagayaki puts him behind at this crucial stage of the yūshō race, while Tochimusashi wins a mobile bout against Kōtokuzan to seize the sole lead (and remove most of the hunters from yesterday, who lost today). Atamifuji's loss to Tokushōryū means he slips to the 2-behind group, whereas Tōhakuryū was the only one in the 4 loss group from yesterday to win.

As with makuuchi, four of the arasoi members face off tomorrow. Kagayaki faces Tochimusashi; he gets the chance to drag Tochimusashi down and to improve his own chances of a yūshō, which would solidify his case for repromotion. Hokuseihō takes on another KK-seeker in Tōhakuryū, while Atamifuji gets Daiamami. And again as with makuuchi, there are a number of possibilities: we could lose both Atamifuji and Tōhakuryū, or we could also see Tochimusashi go 2 clear.

Lower divisions
Makushita: 3 (Ms28e Yūma, Ms36e Daiseiryū, Ms56e Asonoyama)
Sandanme: 2 (Sd33e Wakanoshō, Sd78e Ōshōumi)
Jonidan: 3 (Jd2w Nakashima, Jd44w Takahashi, Jd73w Chiyodaigō)
Jonokuchi: 1 (Jk16w Ōtani)

It says something about the quality of this basho that Asanoyama's shock loss to Yūma is arguably the biggest surprise of the basho, putting an end to any hopes of an immediate return to jūryō. With just 2 6-0s in sandanme making for a neat resolution to that division's yūshō arasoi, it probably means that one of the makushita 6-0s will face a 5-1, with the possibility of a playoff should 2 7-0s remain standing.

Down in jonidan, 3 6-0s remain, while Hakuhō's second to latest recruit Ōtani unsurprisingly stands alone at 6-0 in jonokuchi. If last basho was any indication, Ōtani will likely get another 5-1 to face rather than a cross-division match from jonidan, but eh.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Jakusotsu 4,882]

3 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

If Tamawashi takes the yūshō, he will set/join at least two records in the process: oldest two-time champion, and only the second man to get two makuuchi yūshō while ranked as maegashira since Kotonishiki.

I thought so, too, but if you look closely you won't find Tamawashi in that list.

[Seiyashi 3,372]

3 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

I thought so, too, but if you look closely you won't find Tamawashi in that list.

:facepalm: because his first yūshō was at sekiwake, wasn't it? Thanks for pointing it out, that line is going.

It's still a small club that have 2 yūshō without being ranked at ōzeki, and his age still makes it pretty impressive - just not quite the record I was thinking of.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 3,372]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 11:

Sanyaku/joi

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
(X)	5-5-1	Terunofuji	Y
(1)	7-4	Takakeisho	O	Shodai	2-9	(X)
			O	Mitakeumi	3-8	(X)
(O)	8-3	Wakatakakage	S	Hoshoryu	5-6	(3)
(4)	4-7	Daieisho	S
(X)	0-0-11	Abi	K	Ichinojo	4-7	(4)
			K	Kiribayama	6-5	(2)
(O)	8-3	Tobizaru	M1	Midorifuji	5-6	(3)
(2)	7-4	Kotonowaka	M2	Meisei	4-7	(~)
(O)	10-1	Tamawashi	M3	Ura	6-5	(3)
(X)	5-6	Nishikigi	M4	Takayasu	8-3	(2)
(X)	3-8	Takarafuji	M5	Sadanoumi	7-4	(3)
			...
			M8	Hokutofuji	9-2	(3)

The biggest story in this area today has to be kadoban ōzeki Mitakeumi's confirmed fall to sekiwake next basho. Alongside Wakatakakage's KK today, that potentially locks up the sekiwake rank next basho. The precedents from the ōzeki revolving door of 2019 seem to show that the shimpan consider a falling ōzeki to have priority over any other deserving promotion to sekiwake (leading Abi to get stuck despite 4 KKs in a row as komusubi); that would put paid to any hopes of sekiwake promotion for Kiribayama, Tamawashi, Takayasu, or Hokutofuji, especially if Hōshōryū and/or Daieishō manage to salvage their basho and preserve their rank.

That said, it could be argued that the banzuke committee of recent times is less chary of giving promotions where they feel it is deserved - the two precedents in this case are Meisei's promotion to sekiwake despite Asanoyama'a automatic demotion during his suspension, and Hōshōryū's promotion to sekiwake despite Daieishō being nominally frozen in the rank. Both cases had extenuating circumstances, though, so it remains to be seen if the reasoning behind haridashi sekiwake apply to more "normal" banzuke movements.

The picture at the komusubi rank isn't much prettier. Kiribayama looks on track to keep rank, with Abi definitely falling and Ichinojō likely to fall, but it's not unlikely that at least one of Hōshōryū or Daieishō manage to limit the damage to 7-8 and take up the remaining slot. All in, this could leave as many as 3 double digit records in the joi (Tobizaru, Tamawashi, Takayasu) with no sanyaku promotion, and one M1e stuck at the rank; Hokutofuji has much less cause to complain as M2w would still be a massive jump from where he is (and he should arguably be labelled as requiring banzuke luck, but by the numbers he only needs 3 more). It certainly feels like haridashi ranks are almost necessary next basho as well, but we'll see how it goes.

Makuuchi/jūryō

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
(O)	6-5	Kotoshoho	M11	Chiyotairyu	3-8	(2)
(1)	5-6	Okinoumi	M12	Ryuden	7-4	(O)
(1)	5-6	Ichiyamamoto	M13	Oho	7-4	(O)
(O)	7-4	Chiyoshoma	M14	Yutakayama	3-8	(3)
(2)	5-6	Terutsuyoshi	M15	Tsurugisho	3-8	(4)
(4)	4-7	Mitoryu	M16	Hiradoumi	5-6	(3)
(X)	3-8	Shimanoumi	J1	Chiyomaru	4-7	(4)
(X)	3-8	Chiyonokuni	J2	Azumaryu	6-5	(3)
(2)	7-4	Atamifuji	J3	Tohakuryu	7-4	(2)
(2)	8-3	Kagayaki	J4
			...
(4)	8-3	Hokuseiho	J9

Editorial note from yesterday: Tsurigishō was marked as having missed a favourable outcome, but with a one-rank cushion he actually hasn't made himself a surefire demotion yet. With his win today he staves off that fate for yet another day, leaving no confirmed demotions just yet. Mitoryū joins him in the "must win out or die" club, whereas Yutakayama and Hiradoumi are in just a slightly better position of being able to drop at most one more bout. Not a good basho for the makuuchi debutants.

Jūryō's possible promotees have cleared up a bit, though. Shimanoumi and Chiyonokuni are now both MK and ineligible for promotion, and 4-7 Chiyomaru looks highly unlikely as well. That leaves the current front runner as J4e Kagayaki, closely followed by the J3 pair of Atamifuji and Tōhakuryū for now. Hokuseihō also still has an outside chance of promotion should he win out, although he is so much lower in rank compared to the current candidates plus there is a lack of confirmed spots opening up in makuuchi for now.

Jūryō/makushita

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
			J5	Asanowaka	0-1-10	(X)
			...
(1)	5-6	Shimazuumi	J10	Tokushoryu	5-6	(1)
(O)	6-5	Chiyosakae	J11	Kitanowaka	6-5	(O)
(2)	5-6	Gonoyama	J12	Kinbozan	6-5	(1)
(1)	6-5	Oshoma	J13	Tochimaru	2-9	(X)
(O)	9-2	Tochimusashi	J14	Takakento	6-5	(2)
(X)	0-0	Kaisei	Ms1	Roga	4-2	(O)
(X)	2-4	Tomokaze	Ms2	Yago	1-5	(X)
(X)	2-4	Yoshii	Ms3	Daishomaru	3-3	(1)
(1)	4-2	Tsushimanada	Ms4	Tsukahara	3-3	(1)
(~)	4-2	Fujiseiun	Ms5	Shonannoumi	4-2	(~)
			Ms6
(~)	5-1	Shiden	Ms7

Editorial note from yesterday: Asanowaka's kyūjō means it's likely he'll drop, and while Tochimaru was not yet eligible for demotion yesterday, he is now. Takakentō, should he fail to KK, would join them, whereas the next most endangered is Gōnoyama who also needs two more wins. Everyone else in this area is either safe already or just needs 1 more, which shouldn't be too tall an order. That makes it anywhere between 2-4 slots opening up in jūryō as of now.

Conveniently, makushita has lost a lot of possible promotion candiates. Tomokaze, Yoshii, and Asanoyama all lost today. The former two have an MK and are outright ineligible for promotion, while Asanoyama loses the zenshō and any chance of instant jūryō repromotion. That leaves Rōga as the clear frontrunner for promotion, having secured his KK today and with his next closest competitor being a 3-3 Daishōmaru or a 4-2 Tsushimanada. Given the disparity in rank and the certainty of at least 2 slots in jūryō, it's almost certain that Rōga will be promoted.

Who will join him is a bit murkier, though. The candidates are 3-3s Daishōmaru and Tsukahara, and 4-2s Tsushimanada, Fujiseiun, and Shōnannoumi. 5-1 Shiden at Ms7 is also a possible candidate albeit a long shot. A loss by the 3-3s would remove them from contention, whereas the exact order of the 4-2s depends on whether they win or lose; Fujiseiun and Shōnannoumi could leapfrog Tsushimanada if they win and the latter loses. Shiden needs to win, hope everyone else loses, and maybe even hope for a further collapse in jūryō to have a shot.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Koorifuu 459]

I will let the experts and veterans go into finer detail on the unsalaried yusho races, but I am very much looking forward to the sandanme yusho showdown.

 

Also... The top makushita contenders, loosely including Asanoyama, sure are making it easier for the incumbent juryo to keep their spots. Those ranked in the top 6 or 8 slots keep struggling against those immediately below them. At this point, Roga (FINALLY!) seems to be the only one that'll scrap together a firm claim for promotion.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Koorifuu

[Jakusotsu 4,882]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

It's still a small club that have 2 yūshō without being ranked at ōzeki, and his age still makes it pretty impressive - just not quite the record I was thinking of.

...and he would join a club of four with the aforementioned Kotonishiki alongside Kaiketsu and Terunofuji being the only repeat yusho winners at hiramaku.

[Sakura 1,239]

I'd say that Tochimaru should warrant a ~ rather than an X. The best he can do is a 6-9, and we've seen a few 6-9s save their Juryo rank when there aren't decent candidates to promote. Here we only have one decent candidate so far, Roga who should be taking Asanowaka's spot (assuming that he's going down).

I'd also X out Sadanoumi. At most we'll have two spots open in Sanyaku and he should already be behind Tobizaru and Tamawashi even if he wins out.

EDIT: I think Ura and Meisei will also be out too.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Sakura
typo

[Reonito 639]

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

whereas the next most endangered is Gōnoyama who also needs two more wins

Gonoyama should be fine with one more win, as with two slots already available, it doesn't look there'll be a strong case to push him down with a 6-9 from 12e. 

[Reonito 639]

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

5-1 Shiden at Ms7 is also a possible candidate albeit a long shot. A loss by the 3-3s would remove them from contention, whereas the exact order of the 4-2s depends on whether they win or lose; Fujiseiun and Shōnannoumi could leapfrog Tsushimanada if they win and the latter loses. Shiden needs to win, hope everyone else loses, and maybe even hope for a further collapse in jūryō to have a shot.

I think they would only bring up someone below the invisible line if there were an unambiguously necessary slot to fill in juryo, and with 4 rikishi guaranteed to be ahead of him in the promotion queue already, that won't happen, so Shiden is out of luck.

[Reonito 639]

3 hours ago, Sakura said:

I'd say that Tochimaru should warrant a ~ rather than an X. The best he can do is a 6-9, and we've seen a few 6-9s save their Juryo rank when there aren't decent candidates to promote.

All those instances are on the east side, so I think M13w Tochimaru at 6-9 gets pushed down by 4-3 Tsushimanada at Ms4e (unlike in January, when 13e Kotoyusho got to stay over none other than 4w Tochimaru), but I guess it's not an absolute certainty.

[Reonito 639]

I think Yutakayama needs 4, not 3, to be safe by the numbers.

[Ripe 28]

12 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

...Asanowaka's kyūjō means it's likely he'll drop...

Isn't his kyūjō due to COVID?

Also as a purely theoretical debate now due to Asanoyama's loss... if Roga ended up with 5-2 record and Asanoyama ended with 7-0 Y, which one would be promoted if there was only 1 spot open in Jūryō?

[Seiyashi 3,372]

9 minutes ago, Ripe said:

Isn't his kyūjō due to COVID?

Aftereffects from long COVID, but not a forced kyūjō like last basho. Since he sat out of his own volition it's treated as any other medical absence and he will fall.

As for the promotion hypothetical, my gut feel says Rōga has the stronger case, but it also feels like it wouldn't be difficult to force a demotion for a 7-0 Asanoyama unless the shimpan wanted to be particularly vengeful. Only one 7-0 from Ms15 and up has been denied promotion - it's a toss up whether that was bad banzuke luck or an unwritten rule that TD do not get the benefit of that automatic promotion.

[Chartorenji 152]

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

I think Yutakayama needs 4, not 3, to be safe by the numbers.

a 6-9 at M14 shouldn't be the end of the world.

[Reonito 639]

31 minutes ago, Chartorenji said:

a 6-9 at M14 shouldn't be the end of the world.

No, but with the banzuke ending at M16, he would be demotable by the numbers, so it would just be a question of whether he'd luck out due to a lack of promotion cases.

[WAKATAKE 2,357]

33 minutes ago, Reonito said:

No, but with the banzuke ending at M16, he would be demotable by the numbers, so it would just be a question of whether he'd luck out due to a lack of promotion cases.

If we go back to four lower sanyaku then we see the return of the M17 rank. He does have an outside chance

[Reonito 639]

10 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

If we go back to four lower sanyaku then we see the return of the M17 rank. He does have an outside chance

When @Gurowake and I looked at it in the past, it sorta seemed like ending up mathematically below the lowest rank on either the current or the next banzuke could get one demoted, though of course as with all banzuke considerations, this wasn't always applied consistently. All I'm saying is that at 7-8 he's 100% safe, while at 6-9 he has to hope that banzuke luck and committee deliberations go in his favor.

[Seiyashi 3,372]

FWIW when I relook Yutakayama's case now, I agree I did make a mistake in giving him 3 rather than 4. He might just survive by a hair if M17 returns but IMO it's not likely to.

On that note how do we feel about the sanyaku logjam?

Edited September 22, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Tigerboy1966 1,000]

5 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

On that note how do we feel about the sanyaku logjam?

I feel that it's illustrative of the problem facing sumo. We have a stack of guys capable of performing at "junior sanyaku" level, but hardly any healthy wrestlers above that standard. Fortunately there is no limit on the number of sekiwake or komusubi.

[dingo 641]

21 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

On that note how do we feel about the sanyaku logjam?

I've been trying to count the number of potential komusubi and my latest is 7.