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Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Aki 2022

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Sorry, very very late this time...I'll be extending the deadline by a bit to compensate. See also further comments in a separate post.

The lineup for LKS Aki 2022:

 1. Ryuo            8
 2. Kiryuko         7*
 3. Wakatakakage    6  [score?]
 4. Nishikigi       6
 5. Chiyosakae      6
 6. Suzuki          6
 7. Mukainakano     6*
 8. Ryuden          5
 9. Kinbozan        5*
10. Chiyotora       5
11. Inoue           5
12. Hoshoryu        4  [score?]
13. Midorifuji      4
14. Hokuseiho       4
15. Gonoyama        4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

  • For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
  • For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 15 guys up there and the further 3 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 18. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 14 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Ryuo.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon Monday 9am JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

 1. Ryuo KKMK
 2. Kiryuko KKMK
 3. Wakatakakage W-L
 4. Nishikigi KKMK
 5. Chiyosakae KKMK
 6. Suzuki KKMK
 7. Mukainakano KKMK
 8. Ryuden KKMK
 9. Kinbozan KKMK
10. Chiyotora KKMK
11. Inoue KKMK
12. Hoshoryu W-L
13. Midorifuji KKMK
14. Hokuseiho KKMK
15. Gonoyama KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

Edited by Asashosakari
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19 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Sorry, very very late this time...I'll be extending the deadline by a bit to compensate.

...

Deadline: Shonichi noon Monday 9am JST.

21 hours extra this basho; please don't try to game the system.


In other news: We got very lucky that the various involuntary exits didn't affect the Nagoya results (which I still need to post, I know). Going forward, since reaching KK or MK is pretty much integral to this game's scoring, any rikishi who is not allowed by rule to do that will be excluded from the scoring, i.e. I'm not going to consider enforced absences to be part of a makekoshi. Covid fusenpai will not be counted as losses.

In addition, any rikishi that gets taken out of the basho due to Covid rules on Day 1 or 2 will be excluded in any case, even if he (re-)joins the basho later, same as a pre-Day 1 kyujo. (This rule may be slightly adjusted when the game is back to its normal deadline in November.) I'm also reserving the right to take Covid-positive rikishi out of the game discretionally if it turns out that the Kyokai's rules are forcing clearly incapacitated rikishi back into action once they're negative again.

Edited by Asashosakari
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1. Ryuo KK
 2. Kiryuko KK
 3. Wakatakakage 8-7
 4. Nishikigi KK
 5. Chiyosakae KK
 6. Suzuki KK
 7. Mukainakano KK
 8. Ryuden KK
 9. Kinbozan KK
10. Chiyotora KK
11. Inoue KK
12. Hoshoryu 8-7
13. Midorifuji KK
14. Hokuseiho KK
15. Gonoyama KK

TB 16

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 1. Ryuo                        MK
 2. Kiryuko                    KK
 3. Wakatakakage       8
 4. Nishikigi                  KK
 5. Chiyosakae            KK
 6. Suzuki                     MK
 7. Mukainakano         KK
 8. Ryuden                    KK
 9. Kinbozan                KK
10. Chiyotora               KK
11. Inoue                      KK
12. Hoshoryu              8
13. Midorifuji               KK
14. Hokuseiho             KK
15. Gonoyama            KK

TB  13

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 1. Ryuo KK
 2. Kiryuko KK
 3. Wakatakakage 9-6
 4. Nishikigi MK
 5. Chiyosakae MK
 6. Suzuki KK
 7. Mukainakano MK
 8. Ryuden KK
 9. Kinbozan KK
10. Chiyotora MK
11. Inoue KK
12. Hoshoryu 8-7
13. Midorifuji MK
14. Hokuseiho KK
15. Gonoyama MK

TB 14

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1. Ryuo KK
 2. Kiryuko KK
 3. Wakatakakage 8-7
 4. Nishikigi MK
 5. Chiyosakae KK
 6. Suzuki MK
 7. Mukainakano KK
 8. Ryuden KK
 9. Kinbozan KK
10. Chiyotora KK
11. Inoue KK
12. Hoshoryu 8-7
13. Midorifuji MK
14. Hokuseiho KK
15. Gonoyama KK

TB 13

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 1. Ryuo MK
 2. Kiryuko KK
 3. Wakatakakage 8-7
 4. Nishikigi KK
 5. Chiyosakae MK
 6. Suzuki KK
 7. Mukainakano MK
 8. Ryuden KK
 9. Kinbozan KK
10. Chiyotora MK
11. Inoue KK
12. Hoshoryu 10-5
13. Midorifuji MK
14. Hokuseiho KK
15. Gonoyama MK

TB 11

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1. Ryuo KK
 2. Kiryuko MK
 3. Wakatakakage 8-7
 4. Nishikigi KK
 5. Chiyosakae MK
 6. Suzuki KK
 7. Mukainakano MK
 8. Ryuden KK
 9. Kinbozan KK
10. Chiyotora KK
11. Inoue KK
12. Hoshoryu 7-8
13. Midorifuji KK
14. Hokuseiho MK
15. Gonoyama KK

TB 13

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1. Ryuo                                MK
 2. Kiryuko                                  KK
 3. Wakatakakage                             8-7
 4. Nishikigi                        MK
 5. Chiyosakae                   MK
 6. Suzuki                            MK
 7. Mukainakano                        KK
 8. Ryuden                                   KK
 9. Kinbozan                               KK
10. Chiyotora                     MK
11. Inoue                                    KK
12. Hoshoryu                                    9-6
13. Midorifuji                     MK
14. Hokuseiho                           KK
15. Gonoyama                           KK

TB 10

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13 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

 1. Ryuo MK
 2. Kiryuko KK
 3. Wakatakakage 9-6
 4. Nishikigi MK
 5. Chiyosakae MK
 6. Suzuki MK
 7. Mukainakano KK
 8. Ryuden KK
 9. Kinbozan KK
10. Chiyotora MK
11. Inoue MK
12. Hoshoryu 8-7
13. Midorifuji MK
14. Hokuseiho KK
15. Gonoyama KK

TB 10

-----

Good luck!

 

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 1. Ryuo MK
 2. Kiryuko KK
 3. Wakatakakage 9-6
 4. Nishikigi MK
 5. Chiyosakae MK
 6. Suzuki MK
 7. Mukainakano KK
 8. Ryuden KK
 9. Kinbozan KK
10. Chiyotora MK
11. Inoue KK
12. Hoshoryu 8-7
13. Midorifuji MK
14. Hokuseiho KK
15. Gonoyama KK

TB 9

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- Ryuo
- Kiryuko
9 Wakatakakage
- Nishikigi
- Chiyosakae
- Suzuki
- Mukainakano
+ Ryuden
+ Kinbozan
- Chiyotora
+ Inoue
8 Hoshoryu
- Midorifuji
+ Hokuseiho
- Gonoyama

TB 8
 

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1. Ryuo            MK
 2. Kiryuko         KK
 3. Wakatakakage   8-7
 4. Nishikigi       MK
 5. Chiyosakae      MK
 6. Suzuki          MK
 7. Mukainakano     KK
 8. Ryuden         KK
 9. Kinbozan        KK
10. Chiyotora       MK
11. Inoue           KK
12. Hoshoryu        7-8
13. Midorifuji      MK
14. Hokuseiho      KK
15. Gonoyama        MK

TB: 8

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1. Ryuo KK
 2. Kiryuko KK
 3. Wakatakakage 9-6
 4. Nishikigi MK
 5. Chiyosakae MK
 6. Suzuki KK
 7. Mukainakano KK
 8. Ryuden KK
 9. Kinbozan KK
10. Chiyotora MK
11. Inoue MK
12. Hoshoryu 8-7
13. Midorifuji MK
14. Hokuseiho KK
15. Gonoyama KK

TB 14

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Welcome to new entrant Koorifuu! The Aki basho selection stats:
 

Player Ryuo Kiryu W'kage Nishi C'sak Suzu Mukai Ryud Kinbo C'tora Inoue Hosho Mido Hoku Gono   TB   Cons
Jejima + + - 8-7 + + + + + + + + - 8-7 + + + 16 1.78
Profomisakari - + - 8-7 + + - + + + + + - 8-7 + + + 13 1.69
ryafuji + + + 9-6 - - + - + + - + - 8-7 - + - 14 1.53
Athenayama + + - 8-7 - + - + + + + + - 8-7 - + + 13 1.48
Yarimotsu - + - 8-7 + - + - + + - + + 10-5 - + - 11 1.74
Holleshoryu + - - 8-7 + - + - + + + + - MK + - + 13 2.12
chishafuwaku - + - 8-7 - - - + + + - + + 9-6 - + + 10 1.36
Sakura - + + 9-6 - - - + + + - - - 8-7 - + + 10 1.42
Koorifuu - + + 9-6 - - - + + + - + - 8-7 - + + 9 1.16
Asashosakari - - + 9-6 - - - - + + - + - 8-7 - + - 8 1.64
Rocks - + - 8-7 - - - + + + - + - MK - + - 8 1.23
WAKATAKE + + + 9-6 - - + + + + - - - 8-7 - + + 14 1.53
  5:7 10:2 5:7 4:8 3:9 5:7 8:4 12:0 12:0 4:8 10:2 2:10 3:9 11:1 8:4    
Results + - + - + - - + + + + - (KK) - + -    


While Wakatakakage's target record was easy to select thanks to nearly even amounts of 8-7 and 9-6 picks (it's 9-6 again), Hoshoryu attracted mainly 8-7 choices with the same number of entrants going above and below that. Consequently both 8 and 9 wins were in a dead heat for target selection. As always I used the parity of the sum of the tie-breaker entries to make the choice - that sum is 139 this time around, so 9 wins it is.

Unlike Nagoya it's an edition full of lopsided selections with over half the slots getting picked 9:3 or even further out, including two full KK prediction slates for Ryuden (again) and juryo newcomer Kinbozan. Unsurprisingly that also means that there are a lot of very similar entries. No two players managed to pick in completely identical fashion, but Sakura and Koorifuu do differ on only one slot.

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Day 7

Ballot-leading Ryuo took no time at all to assert his place at the top with a quick 4-0 start into Aki basho. A slight majority of us failed to expect any KK for him, let alone this way.
 

Day 7:
1/15 Decisions, TB 1-18
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Athenayama 1 13
1 Holleshoryu 1 13
3 ryafuji 1 14
3 WAKATAKE 1 14
5 Jejima 1 16
6 chishafuwaku 0 10
6 Koorifuu 0 9
6 Sakura 0 10
9 Asashosakari 0 8
9 Rocks 0 8
9 Yarimotsu 0 11
12 Profomisakari 0 13

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Day 8

Our short-handed bunch off the ballot got started early as well, but unfortunately in the opposite direction: Hidano started off 0-4 and won't be joining the next LKS edition.


Day 9

A second backupper decided his fate already as well - courtesy of his 5th straight KK Asashinjo will be appearing on the Kyushu ballot. But more importantly for Aki, Day 9 also saw another KK on the ballot, this time for highly regarded Hakuho protegé Hokuseiho.
 

Day 9:
2/15 Decisions, TB 3-17
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Athenayama 2 13
2 ryafuji 2 14
2 WAKATAKE 2 14
4 Jejima 2 16
5 chishafuwaku 1 10
5 Sakura 1 10
7 Koorifuu 1 9
7 Yarimotsu 1 11
9 Asashosakari 1 8
9 Rocks 1 8
11 Holleshoryu 1 13
11 Profomisakari 1 13

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Day 10

Back to one of the more contested slots: Young Suzuki went makekoshi for the first time in seven tournaments, ending his time as part of LKS.

In the process, our first sole leader of the tournament was found.
 

Day 10:
3/15 Decisions, TB 3-16
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Athenayama 3 13
2 chishafuwaku 2 10
2 Koorifuu 2 9
2 Sakura 2 10
5 Asashosakari 2 8
5 Rocks 2 8
7 Profomisakari 2 13
8 ryafuji 2 14
8 WAKATAKE 2 14
10 Jejima 2 16
11 Yarimotsu 1 11
12 Holleshoryu 1 13

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Day 11

Into the final third of the basho, but it was another day with just one decision. This time Inoue secured his KK, #6 since he fell all the way back to jonokuchi last year. Not many detractors on that one.

In other news the day also saw sekiwake Wakatakakage reach KK territory, ensuring his continued ballot presence and leaving him just one win away from hitting his target record.

No change at the top, as the leader wasn't among those who doubted Inoue.
 

Day 11:
4/15 Decisions, TB 5-16
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Athenayama 4 13
2 chishafuwaku 3 10
3 Koorifuu 3 9
4 Asashosakari 3 8
4 Rocks 3 8
6 Profomisakari 3 13
7 ryafuji 3 14
8 Jejima 3 16
9 Sakura 2 10
9 Yarimotsu 2 11
11 Holleshoryu 2 13
12 WAKATAKE 2 14
Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 12

The pace finally picked up with three further results, although just two were of relevance - Ryuden's never-in-doubt KK materialized, alongside a pair of makushita results: 20-year-old Mukainakano's debut KK streak was finally snapped at 6, while even younger Chiyotora extended his run to the same number. Each result was predicted by only 4 out of 12 in the field, with little overlap; exactly one player managed to pick up both points (defending champion Holleshoryu, as it happens).

Leading Athenayama was among those who came away with one point, and as Holleshoryu was too far back, the sole lead remained.
 

Day 12:
7/15 Decisions, TB 7-15
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Athenayama 6 13
2 Holleshoryu 5 13
2 Profomisakari 5 13
4 Asashosakari 5 8
4 ryafuji 5 14
6 Jejima 5 16
7 Yarimotsu 4 11
8 chishafuwaku 4 10
9 Koorifuu 4 9
10 Rocks 4 8
11 Sakura 3 10
12 WAKATAKE 3 14
Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 13

Big changes on (after a fashion) Friday the 13th - no less than five scores came in at once. Wakatakakage picked up that final win towards his 9-6 target, joi maegashira duo Midorifuji and Nishikigi fell to MK, and juryo saw the unanimously anticipated KK for rookie Kinbozan and the rather less expected MK for sophomore Gonoyama. Asashosakari and ryafuji earned the full complement of five points, four other players scored with four slots, three entrants picked up three points - and disaster befell the remaining trio who missed out on everything except the Kinbozan point that everyone got.

The vastly revamped leaderboard:
 

Day 13:
12/15 Decisions, TB 8-12
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Asashosakari 10 8
2 ryafuji 10 14
3 Athenayama 9 13
4 Koorifuu 8 9
5 Rocks 8 8
6 chishafuwaku 7 10
6 Sakura 7 10
8 Yarimotsu 7 11
9 WAKATAKE 7 14
10 Holleshoryu 6 13
10 Jejima 6 16
10 Profomisakari 6 13


And in fact we were down to a two-horse race at this point. Only Athenayama had sufficiently different remaining picks to catch up to the leading duo, but would at best lose in a playoff to ryafuji if Kiryuko finishes with kachikoshi (in some scenarios ryafuji would win outright anyway). With a Kiryuko MK, however, the yusho would go to Asashosakari in outright fashion, regardless of what happens with the other two rikishi still left, Hoshoryu and Chiyosakae.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 14

While the real basho went down to the wire, the penultimate day already brought closure to LKS: With Kiryuko losing his KK/MK decider (after he had battled back from 0-3, no less), the Aki yusho went to Asashosakari, title #12 overall but the very first since the tsuna was tied nearly three years ago.

The day also saw Hoshoryu collect his 7th loss, still in line to perhaps finish with kachikoshi but no longer able to reach his 9-6 target. The off-ballot contest concluded as well with Tochiseiryu dropping to MK and thus not joining the Kyushu ballot.
 

Day 14:
14/15 Decisions, TB 8-10
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Asashosakari 12 8
2 ryafuji 11 14
3 Athenayama 10 13
4 Koorifuu 9 9
5 Rocks 9 8
6 Sakura 8 10
7 Holleshoryu 8 13
7 WAKATAKE 8 14
9 chishafuwaku 7 10
10 Jejima 7 16
10 Profomisakari 7 13
10 Yarimotsu 7 11

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Day 15

Senshuraku brought forth two more kachikoshi, firstly for oldie Chiyosakae who continues to astound, and later in the day also for Hoshoryu who therefore remains part of the game after all.

The final standings, showing a joint jun-yusho for Athenayama and ryafuji in the end:
 

Day 15:
15/15 Decisions, TB 10
Pos Player Pts TB
1 Asashosakari 12 8
2 Athenayama 11 13
2 ryafuji 11 14
4 Koorifuu 9 9
4 Rocks 9 8
6 Sakura 8 10
7 Holleshoryu 8 13
7 Jejima 8 16
7 Profomisakari 8 13
7 WAKATAKE 8 14
11 chishafuwaku 7 10
12 Yarimotsu 7 11


Sakura and chishafuwaku collect the bonus point for getting the tie-breaker right, although just the former is high enough in the standings for it to matter.


The new ballot for Kyushu 2022:

 1. Ryuo            9
    Kiryuko         7*
 2. Wakatakakage    7
    Nishikigi       6
 3. Chiyosakae      7
    Suzuki          6
    Mukainakano     6*
 4. Ryuden          6
 5. Kinbozan        6*
 6. Chiyotora       6
 7. Inoue           6
 8. Hoshoryu        5
    Midorifuji      4
 9. Hokuseiho       5
    Gonoyama        4
10. Asashinjo       5
---
11. Takakeisho      4
12. Kiribayama      4
13. Kotonowaka      4
14. Roga            4

Plenty of sekitori action next time, including no less than four sanyaku-ranked rikishi.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Scores for banzuke purposes:

Asashosakari 13 (12+Top)
Athenayama 11
ryafuji 11
Koorifuu 9
Rocks 9
Sakura 9 (8+TB)
Holleshoryu 8
Jejima 8
Profomisakari 8
WAKATAKE 8
chishafuwaku 8 (7+TB)
Yarimotsu 7

Total: 109 / 12 = 9.08 ---> -1 win

An obvious KK/MK cut again, even if the mean score doesn't quite agree this time.
 

The new banzuke for Kyushu 2022:

Asashosakari (Ye 12-3 Y)  Y
                          YO  chishafuwaku (Yw 7-8)
Athenayama (Oe 10-5 J)    O   ---
Rocks (Se 8-7)            S   Tsuchinoninjin (Ow 0-0-15*)
ryafuji (M4w 10-5 J)      K   Sakura (M1w 8-7)
Mmikasazuma (Kw kosho)    M1  Holleshoryu (Sw 7-8)
WAKATAKE (Ke 7-8)         M2  Koorifuu (NR 8-7)
Hakuryuho (M2w kosho)     M3  Jejima (M2e 7-8)
Tameiki (M3w kosho)       M4  Profomisakari (M4e 7-8)
Yarimotsu (M3e 6-9)       M5  Chartorenji (M1e 0-0-15)

Rather different results for the two yokozuna, although chishafuwaku wasn't far from a positive outcome. Sadly we're down to just one ozeki, however, after continued absences by Tsuchinoninjin, and Rocks not really coming close to completing his promotion run. Kadoban Athenayama easily cleared his name and as runner-up he just might bear watching in Kyushu.

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