Kyushu 2022 discussion (results)

[Yamanashi 4,080]

10 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

I know we're not supposed to talk about PP on this forum anymore, but incredibly, PPI (Posture Princess Imposter) is in the audience today front and center doing an admirable impression. 

I was just thinking about that subject ... and I appreciate you taking one for the team, buddy!

[Suwihuto 145]

Takayasu can't lose it from here.

[junsan 204]

55 minutes ago, Suwihuto said:

Takayasu can't lose it from here.

Now how many times has that been said

[Yamanashi 4,080]

There is now no possible path to a Takayasu Yusho*

 

*I'm using skills from my Minor in Reverse Psychology ... ssh!

[Sumo Spiffy 667]

5 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

I, too, believed Oho would be no match for Hoshoryu - then I saw the H2H. Was 2-1, now 3-1, and Oho made it look easy!

It's looking increasingly likely that we're going to have one of those very rare years with six different makuuchi yusho winners. I think I'm going to be happy no matter who gets it this time, but I'll be especially happy if it's their first. 

One thing I've noticed this basho, from playing the daily pick games, is that there seems to be a lot of fights between guys who haven't faced each other in a year or more, or where their head-to-head is skewed in some fashion from results ages ago not mirroring more recent results. I picked Hoshoryu without a second thought because the last time Oho beat him, they were in division six; Hoshoryu's win was in division three, but still, at that point you just go off current form, and it feels obvious.

As for the spread of winners, you made me curious about this history, so I went digging. Before Teru flattened everyone last year, there were three straight years, and four of five (2016, 2018-20) where there were five different winners. 2020 was especially notable since it effectively had what we're talking about—nobody winning two bashos in a calendar year—just with one of the tournaments taken out due to COVID. So, I wondered how many sixes I'd find if I went back more.

I only found one: 1972. That was surprising.

That said, looking at the time since Hakuho was blowing everyone up every basho, it seems to be by far the most "egalitarian", if you will, in terms of how many different people win titles. It's not great if you're like a Yankees fan or Yankees hater, who likes where there's a really dominant champion to root for or against. But if you like your bashos full of mystery, it looks like this might be the best time to be a sumo fan.

[Kaninoyama 1,880]

2 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

There is now no possible path to a Takayasu Yusho*

 

*I'm using skills from my Minor in Reverse Psychology ... ssh!

I got the ball rolling with my Takayasu yusho prediction in the ridiculous predictions thread. Now we need to be careful to not jinx it. 

[Godango 1,092]

Ah, good ol' familiar Day 12 with raised hopes of a Takayasu yusho. I don't know why I keep setting myself up like this, I already feel prepared for disappointment. 

[Seregost 139]

I don't like dame-oshi, but can understand the one Oshoma did to Akua. The Tatsunami guy tried to blow his teeth up too many times today.

[Reonito 1,784]

12 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Exciting finale ahead of us then. Oho handled Hoshoryu much more easily than I think many of us anticipated. Sets up a great weekend.

Could Takayasu return to Ozeki soon? 11-4 last basho at M4 followed by a minimum of 10-5 this time at M1, if he implodes. With Mitakeumi out and Shodai probably Ozekiwake in January, that could work in Takayasu’s favour if he puts up similar numbers in the new year. With a yusho in there, no doubt for me.

Two san'yaku basho is a minimum, I think. The M4 one only counts in the sense that it might lower the score he'd need in March. Not to mention that he'll likely only be komusubi next time, and you have to be sekiwake.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

56 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Two san'yaku basho is a minimum, I think. The M4 one only counts in the sense that it might lower the score he'd need in March. Not to mention that he'll likely only be komusubi next time, and you have to be sekiwake.

As with all things in sumo, these are only guidelines. The Kyokai has tremendous discretion. If we get to a situation with only one Ozeki and a Yokozuna, and Takayasu gives them an excuse to say yes, I can see them promoting him. He’s proven himself at this level for years, only losing his Ozeki rank previously because he was injured at the time. The banzuke needs two Ozeki and Takakeisho isn’t a guarantee.

[Godango 1,092]

I believe Takayasu CAN make ozeki again; I'm starting to believe he WILL, but I don't see him making it before the Natsu banzuke.

[Sumo Spiffy 667]

4 hours ago, Reonito said:

Two san'yaku basho is a minimum, I think. The M4 one only counts in the sense that it might lower the score he'd need in March. Not to mention that he'll likely only be komusubi next time, and you have to be sekiwake.

I think it's plausible that they count the last two bashos because he was very much worthy of a komusubi spot; only banzuke math kept him out, and the schedule for M1E isn't appreciably different than that of a komusubi. But, for however much everything in sumo might be guidelines rather than rules, I do agree that they're not going to promote him from komusubi to ozeki, no matter how well he does. I always understood the need to be sekiwake for the last tournament to be one of the few hard rules—if it's technically not, I think it's close enough to one that they're not going to go against it.

What that opens up, however, is the question of if they'll push him to sekiwake if he goes 13-2, specifically to make him ozeki-eligible.

Edit: I realize Daieisho had ten before his 13-2 and was only bumped up to komusubi, so I'm not saying the odds of Takayasu going to sekiwake are good. But if Shodai drops, I think they at least have the discussion due to the lack of ozeki (and the only current candidate, Hoshoryu, being completely unproven in terms of whether he can keep up this level of performance).

Edited November 25, 2022 by Sumo Spiffy

[Kurowashi 43]

Nice Shitatehineri by Enho !

Juryo is in my opinion, so much more exciting than Makuuchi, this basho.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

3 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Edit: I realize Daieisho had ten before his 13-2 and was only bumped up to komusubi, so I'm not saying the odds of Takayasu going to sekiwake are good. But if Shodai drops, I think they at least have the discussion due to the lack of ozeki (and the only current candidate, Hoshoryu, being completely unproven in terms of whether he can keep up this level of performance).

There's only one scenario I see where Takayasu goes to sekiwake, and it involves him winning out, Shōdai holding rank, Wakatakakage and Mitakeumi MK, and Kiribayama, Tobizaru, and Daieishō doing no better than 9-6.

[Tigerboy1966 1,634]

Much schadenfreude to be had in jonidan today as would-be bad boy Ohtani ran into a man he couldn't bully and got squished by Asashiyu (Murata). He gave a big, petulant yelp as he hit the ground drawing a look from Asashiyu that said "Jeez kid, show some dignity".

[Kaninoyama 1,880]

As expected, Takayasu dispatches Oho with ease. The basho, for better or worse, is once again in his hands and he's completed his Sanyaku/Ozeki bouts. 

Edited November 25, 2022 by Kaninoyama

[Chartorenji 243]

16 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

As expected, Takayasu dispatches Oho with ease. The basho, for better or worse, is once again in his hands and he's completed his Sanyaku/Ozeki bouts. 

Gut tells me Taka is gonna choke it again. If so, wonder how Hoshoryu is going to be treated by the rankings. He shouldn't be going to Ozeki, but with Shodai potentially down and out...

[Kaninoyama 1,880]

15 minutes ago, Chartorenji said:

Gut tells me Taka is gonna choke it again. If so, wonder how Hoshoryu is going to be treated by the rankings. He shouldn't be going to Ozeki, but with Shodai potentially down and out...

Now officially down. And likely out. 

[Jakusotsu 6,395]

26 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

And likely out. 

I doubt it. Shodai never pulled the ripcord, no matter how dire the situation.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Didn't he go kyūjō once? But I agree, in the absence of an actual injury, he's just going to see this one through.

[Kaninoyama 1,880]

I meant out in terms of being unlikely to get his 10 wins next basho and therefore out as a returning Ozeki. 

[Akinomaki 41,838]

1 hour ago, Kaninoyama said:

1 hour ago, Chartorenji said:

wonder how Hoshoryu is going to be treated by the rankings. He shouldn't be going to Ozeki, but with Shodai potentially down and out...

Now officially down. And likely out. 

Until he's really out like Mitakeumi, there won't be a premature ozeki promotion, especially not after the loss today. Takakeisho is not kadoban and Yokozuna-Ozeki Terunofuji can stay on the banzuke the whole next year. We'll have the banzuke like 125 years ago with one proper ozeki and one YO, which lasted 2 basho then b=189705 and b=189801

[Hankegami 598]

3 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Until he's really out like Mitakeumi, there won't be a premature ozeki promotion, especially not after the loss today. Takakeisho is not kadoban and Yokozuna-Ozeki Terunofuji can stay on the banzuke the whole next year. We'll have the banzuke like 125 years ago with one proper ozeki and one YO, which lasted 2 basho then b=189705 and b=189801

I am personally skeptical of premature Ozeki promotions in general, even with Shodai failing to get 10-5 in Hatsu. Terunofuji and Takakeisho constitute a virtual guarantee for the time being. The only thing they could hurry up (and they are not strictly pressed to do anyway) is in giving directly a Sekiwake spot to Takayasu, considering he's both in top form and an ex-Ozeki. This way they might have up to four shots at having a O1w for Haru: 1) Shodai comeback 2) Takayasu - safe bet 3) Hoshoryu - risky bet 4) Wakatakakage (if KK) - outside bet.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

I mentioned this in the PDY thread, but now with Shōdai demoted, I wonder whether Hōshōryū might not be the beneficiary of a Kitanofuji promotion. Kitanofuji was promoted when there were still 4 yokozuna on the banzuke (although one retired shortly after) and mainly because one ōzeki had just retired, and he scored 28 over 3 basho - the same total that Hōshōryū will reach with one more win. Even if Hōshōryū isn't promoted this basho, if he goes 10/11 and goes 10/11 again next round, and Shōdai doesn't get repromoted, the comparisons will only grow stronger. After his flub this basho I don't think Hōshōryū will be promoted this basho at all, but it could be a very real possibility next basho if he performs well.

True, Hōshōryū doesn't yet have a track record of double digit wins in sanyaku, unlike Kitanofuji who had 4/6 before his promotion and no MK, but Hōshōryū's also never MKed before, which, honestly, is a lot more than can be said about Shōdai and Mitakeumi.

[Hankegami 598]

19 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I mentioned this in the PDY thread, but now with Shōdai demoted, I wonder whether Hōshōryū might not be the beneficiary of a Kitanofuji promotion. Kitanofuji was promoted when there were still 4 yokozuna on the banzuke (although one retired shortly after) and mainly because one ōzeki had just retired, and he scored 28 over 3 basho - the same total that Hōshōryū will reach with one more win.

I am skeptical over this "Kitanofuji precedent". Back then the standard was 30 wins if I reckon correctly, so 28 would have been like today's 31. In the post-Futahaguro era the standard has been raised to 33, and no promotion ever happened since with less than 32 wins. In this context, perhaps a 31 wins Sekiwake would have had a chance with the upcoming Hatsu banzuke. But 29, or even 28? Too low, in my opinion.

Considering that not Terunofuji nor Takakeisho are going anywhere at least until Haru (and likely even after), I believe the NSK will wait for a Sekiwake to put up the usual numbers in the near future.

Edited November 25, 2022 by Hankegami