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Kintamayama

GTB invite- Aki 2022 - RESULTS!!

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

So the question becomes, does the committee view a definite kachi-koshi (ie. one that should be treated normally) as a winning record or as eight wins?

Counter-question: Why should anyone whose tournament was interrupted be treated "normally"? You're seemingly not treating Nishikigi's record normally either, because you've placed his 8 wins ahead of Midorifuji's 10 despite only three ranks difference. I see no reasonable justification for throwing out the missed matches altogether for somebody who's 8-4, but not for somebody else who's 7-3, 6-2, 5-1 or 4-0. Of course there's significant scope for discounting the shorter records to some degree (hence, again, that's why Takarafuji's +3 in 15 matches vs Ichiyamamoto's +4 in 8 is an interesting microcosm of the whole mess), but I'm really puzzled about the notion that a reasonable treatment involves ignoring matches that actually happened solely because they left a sidelined rikishi short of 8 wins or 8 losses. To say nothing about the fact that those same matches will have counted for (most of) their opponents...

The issue isn't limited just to makuuchi anyway, and I would expect that they decided on something that works for all divisions. The elephant in the room is probably J2w Tohakuryu 3-7 vs J3w Daishoho 4-8. I defy anyone to explain how it would be "fair" to send Daishoho down the rankings but treat Tohakuryu to a courtesy demotion of one rank or even no demotion at all.


Edit: To be clear, I'm not saying all that in order to proclaim that the Kyokai has definitely chosen my approach. I won't be surprised at all to finish GTB in last place. The part that puzzles me is the fan perception stated in various posts around here since the end of the basho that it would somehow be fair to not move Covid rikishi who had lopsided records but not quite 8 wins/losses. The way the banzuke works, such "fair" treatment of those rikishi contrary to their posted records will necessarily result in somebody else's unfair treatment.

Edited by Asashosakari
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3 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

The part that puzzles me is the fan perception stated in various posts around here since the end of the basho that it would somehow be fair to not move Covid rikishi who had lopsided records but not quite 8 wins/losses.

My sense is that this is fan perception of what Isegahama meant by "fair", not what many of us would actually consider fair if we were in charge of the banzuke...although it sounds like there's also real disagreement among fans as to what the "fair" approach would be. I personally would move rikishi based on win-loss differential in the bouts they actually contested, but I am not at all convinced that this is what the shimpan department opted to do.

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I went with the approach of considering the fusen losses as actual losses (because they are considered as wins for the other rikishi). In my approach, Daieisho is 6-7 and demoted to komusubi.

Wait and see... On Monday we will be all be pleased to see how wrong we went.

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To my eyes, the whole thing has transitioned several levels from the usual attempted telepathy to the realm of outright divination. You have my respect, renowned co-foristae.

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19 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Counter-question: Why should anyone whose tournament was interrupted be treated "normally"? You're seemingly not treating Nishikigi's record normally either, because you've placed his 8 wins ahead of Midorifuji's 10 despite only three ranks difference. I see no reasonable justification for throwing out the missed matches altogether for somebody who's 8-4, but not for somebody else who's 7-3, 6-2, 5-1 or 4-0. Of course there's significant scope for discounting the shorter records to some degree (hence, again, that's why Takarafuji's +3 in 15 matches vs Ichiyamamoto's +4 in 8 is an interesting microcosm of the whole mess), but I'm really puzzled about the notion that a reasonable treatment involves ignoring matches that actually happened solely because they left a sidelined rikishi short of 8 wins or 8 losses. To say nothing about the fact that those same matches will have counted for (most of) their opponents...

To be clear, I'm with you to at least some degree in terms what I, personally, think makes sense. Giving Ichiyamamoto four ranks of promotion credit, as it were, is logical, and I started with that idea in mind very early in the process before moving him back.

The difference is that I have a very hard time seeing the committee, even if they were willing to credit him that +4 to start, also then considering him ahead of Takarafuji for promotion. I think the most you're going to get out of the committee is a maximum move of whatever their W-L difference says the move should be and then anything deviating from that will be less movement unless the wrestler is still the best one to fill a gap in the banzuke. Since there are no such gaps in the middle of the division (6-10), then the highest Ichiyamamoto likely goes is 9E. I wouldn't be shocked to see him there; I think they're going to be more conservative since they have other reasonable options, but this is the point where everything becomes speculative.

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Wild banzuke with a large number of "reasonable" guesses are the best!  I feel like the real thing is going to be something very few of us submitted in our entries.

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Just saw it as well (Thinkingindepth...) that will shirley be a new negative record for me... but who cares, I am crap at this (or any game anyway) :-D can't wait for this year's whacky Aki to start, let's just hope they'll find a solution for dealing with the COVID situation...

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huh, apparently I can't upload more pictures

translated:

-big oof for Nishikigi
-!!!!!!! at Endo's rank
-??? at Aoiyama's rank
-"What about Endo?!" written out in telestrator at Okinoumi's rank
-"Can't catch a break" for Ichiyamamoto
-"damn, flipped" for Chiyoshoma and Yutakayama

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Well, I'll start the self-scoring:

Y: 2
O: 6
S: 2 (I'm assuming sekiwake level matters, not just being at sekiwake)
K: 3 (same here)
M1-5: 8
M6-10: 9
M11-16: 15

Total: 45

If I misunderstood and just calling someone at any komusubi or sekiwake rank is enough to get a point, then there's one more each for Daieisho and Ichinojo. Still pretty disastrous, but I'm not going to feel bad about it with some of the decisions on display here.

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I'm looking at around 48 points here. Not good but I'll take it. Things were looking distinctly grim before I went 12/12 for M14-16.

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So that was the weird one. Low scoring affair of course- we had a two-way tie in points and the yusho was decided by the first tiebreaker-most guesses correct. The winner is Chiyotasuke-first time after playing 5 bashos. Second place was rerenono 11 in his/her 2nd basho- so congrats to the winner and the runner-up.. 116 players, a drastic yet understandable drop from last basho, and only two new players.

Milestones:

Leonishiki  and Tamanaogijima- 130th basho  -wawa weewa!!!

Andoreasu, the guy who actually runs the game- 120th basho!!!!

Susanoo- 110th basho

Gonzaburow- 90th basho.

Muhomatsu - 50th basho

Nantonoyama- 40th basho

Tupayumi - 30th basho

Taiseiyama - 30th basho

Robnplunder- 20th basho

To see how you did, go here.

Thanks for playing. special thanks to Andoreasu for running the game and to Doitsuyama for the maintenance..

and now, on with the Ba-show!!!

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Only 6 people in the now top 10 participated.  And given what we got, I feel totally justified being among those to not enter.  I'm totally not surprised that unusual circumstances would lead a group of mostly middle-school-educated former athletes to come to the "decisions" they did.  It's an absolute travesty.  John Gunning's words about the Internet having better banzuke makers than the Kyokai is about ten times more accurate this time.

Edited by Gurowake
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Posted (edited)

Fun fact - assuming that the average score of all GTB participants is going to be historically low, then the algorithm for computing GTB overall scores (past 6 tournaments) will weight this tournament disproportionately highly (the denominator is the average score of all participants).

Edited by Hoshotakamoto

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25 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

Fun fact - assuming that the average score of all GTB participants is going to be historically low, then the algorithm for computing GTB overall scores (past 6 tournaments) will weight this tournament disproportionately highly (the denominator is the average score of all participants).

So... is that... good...? Like, is placing better on a hard banzuke like this worth more or is placing better on a more straightforward one like Nagoya?

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I just noticed that I have the most basho played out of the new top ten.  I'm not sure if that's something that was true in the past or not.  In some ways I feel like a newcomer still, but seeing that statistic made me realize that I've indeed been following sumo 8 years now. 

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47 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

Fun fact - assuming that the average score of all GTB participants is going to be historically low, then the algorithm for computing GTB overall scores (past 6 tournaments) will weight this tournament disproportionately highly (the denominator is the average score of all participants).

Only if you assume the high scores will be disproportionately high relative to the average, right?

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1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Only if you assume the high scores will be disproportionately high relative to the average, right?

I mean the weight is the weight. A point is worth more (if the average is lower) than a point in "easier" banzukes. To the comment by sumo spiffy (nice top 20 finish btw), no, it's probably not a good/desired thing to have more weight on chaotic decisions by the committee. But it is an amusing ranking artifact that perhaps is a faithful representation of the chaos in the banzuke itself.

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Posted (edited)

I'll take 4th place and my highest score by far from 5 attempts. Based on Isegahama's one-liner and where my submission was correct (M1-M4 perfect), I'm confident in saying my method was the one they used and my mistakes in placement lower down are just my usual inaccuracy compared to their process.

So my process was as follows: Anyone who did not reach 8 wins or 8 losses cannot be moved (unless they must be forced 1 rank lower, which didn't happen). The fusen losses obviously count just as much as the fusen wins - like normal. The covid absences of those with 8 wins or losses are removed entirely from their score in calculating a win-loss differential to move that rikishi up or down a certain amount.

If I'd made a few adjustments lower down on the banzuke to follow our usual conventions instead of submitting a rough draft, this process would've won it for me.

 

Oh, and obviously Endo's rank is egregious but there's always one.

Edited by Yarimotsu
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Very surprised I got 10th, the bottom 3rd fell into place for me but I messed up on the joi because I didn't follow the rule of not moving people who didn't reach 8 wins/losses. Endo's treatment is the outlier and I also promoted Ichiyamamoto, but I'll take what I can get!

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

I mean the weight is the weight. A point is worth more (if the average is lower) than a point in "easier" banzukes. To the comment by sumo spiffy (nice top 20 finish btw), no, it's probably not a good/desired thing to have more weight on chaotic decisions by the committee. But it is an amusing ranking artifact that perhaps is a faithful representation of the chaos in the banzuke itself.

Fair point, but in this case I meant is it good (ie. beneficial to long-term ranking) to do well in these more chaotic situations. Which, I take it that is the case.

Edit: also thanks <3

Edited by Sumo Spiffy

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My post-mortem is that I should have been more heartless, and should have known the shimpanbu wouldn't have had the flexibility to push up and down those nearly approaching a KK (like Kotonowaka). I did light on the correct principle which is that COVID kyūjō would effectively be frozen, but wasn't consistent enough with it. Similar to Yarimotsu, it looks like (although I write this before my morning caffeine so I could be wrong).

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2 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Fair point, but in this case I meant is it good (ie. beneficial to long-term ranking) to do well in these more chaotic situations. Which, I take it that is the case.

Edit: also thanks <3

oops, yes, they divide your score by the average and that's this month's contribution to your rolling average (basically something like 100% of the last score + 90% of the score before it + 80% + 70% + 60% + 50% of the one ten months ago)

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Oof, my best result in a long time. That probably says a lot about this banzuke.

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