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Kintamayama

GTB invite- Aki 2022 - RESULTS!!

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The biggest problem I found, apart from guessing how to treat the Covid absences, was how to balance the under-demotions and over-promotions needed. I suppose this is often the problem, and one I rarely understand the answer to.

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My attempt went without any bonus because of covid, so I demoted Mitakeumi and treated all rikishi without considering reasons  of their kyujo. Maybe I will go 0-15 with it, maybe not.

Here my estimation:

Yokozuna E: Terunofuji
Ozeki E: Takakeisho
Ozeki W: Shodai
Sekiwake E: Wakatakakage
Sekiwake W: Mitakeumi
Sekiwake E2: Hoshoryu
Sekiwake W2: Ichinojo
Komusubi E: Abi
Komusubi W: Kiribayama
Maegashira E: Daieisho
Maegashira W: Tobizaru
Maegashira E2: Kotonowaka
Maegashira W2: Nishikigi
Maegashira E3: Midorifuji
Maegashira W3: Ura
Maegashira E4: Meisei
Maegashira W4: Takayasu
Maegashira E5: Wakamotoharu
Maegashira W5: Sadanoumi
Maegashira E6: Takarafuji
Maegashira W6: Aoiyama
Maegashira E7: Tamawashi
Maegashira W7: Onosho
Maegashira E8: Tochinoshin
Maegashira W8: Myogiryu
Maegashira E9: Hokutofuji
Maegashira W9: Nishikifuji
Maegashira E10: Oho
Maegashira W10: Yutakayama
Maegashira E11: Ryuden
Maegashira W11: Chiyotairyu
Maegashira E12: Okinoumi
Maegashira W12: Kotoeko
Maegashira E13: Endo
Maegashira W13: Takanosho
Maegashira E14: Chiyoshoma
Maegashira W14: Terutsuyoshi
Maegashira E15: Ichiyamamoto
Maegashira W15: Mitoryu
Maegashira E16: Kotoshoho
Maegashira W16: Chiyonokuni
Maegashira E17: Tsurugisho

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My picks with no drops or promotion  for anyone leaving with Covid except Kotonowaka one spot. 

 

East New Rank West
Y1e Terunofuji (11-4 J) Y1  
  Y2  
Ō1e Takakeishō (11-4 J) Ō1 Shōdai
  Ō2 Mitakeumi
  Ō3  
Wakatakakage S1 Daieishō
Ichinojō S2  
Hōshōryū K1 Abi
  K2 Kiribayama
Kotonowaka M1 Takanoshō
Tobizaru M2 Midorifuji
Tamawashi M3 Meisei
Ura M4 Takayasu
Nishikigi M5 Takarafuji
Sadanoumi M6 Wakamotoharu
Ōnoshō M7 Myōgiryū
Tochinoshin M8 Aoiyama
Nishikifuji M9 Kotoekō
Hokutofuji M10 Ōhō
Kotoshōhō M11 Endo
Yutakayama M12 Chiyotairyū
Ichiyamamoto M13 Ryūden
Chiyoshōma M14 Tsurugishō
Okinoumi M15 Terutsuyoshi
Mitoryū M16 Daiamami
     

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I went the other way, with by-the-numbers treatment of the Covid kyujos. Probably the odd mistake in interpretation too. However, things seem to end up defensible, if you like over-promotions instead of under-demotions.

image.png

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My attempt:

Terunofuji Y1e
Takakeisho O1e
Shodai O1w
Mitakeumi O2w
Wakatakakage S1e
Daieisho S1w
Hoshoryu K1e
Abi K1w
Ichinojo K2e
Kiribayama K2w
Tobizaru M1e
Midorifuji M1w
Kotonowaka M2e
Meisei M2w
Tamawashi M3e
Ura M3w
Nishikigi M4e
Takayasu M4w
Wakamotoharu M5e
Sadanoumi M5w
Takarafuji M6e
Onosho M6w
Aoiyama M7e
Myogiryu M7w
Tochinoshin M8e
Hokutofuji M8w
Nishikifuji M9e
Kotoeko M9w
Ryuden M10e
Endo M10w
Kotoshoho M11e
Takanosho M11w
Chiyotairyu M12e
Okinoumi M12w
Ichiyamamoto M13e
Oho M13w
Chiyoshoma M14e
Terutsuyoshi M14w
Yutakayama M15e
Tsurugisho M15w
Mitoryu M16e

And a little note saying Hiradoumi next to M16w. 

I'm trying something with the M1 ranks, in the name of consistency. Suddenly being reminded that Takanosho's kyujo wasn't covid shook things up a bit. Basically I interpreted Isegahama's hint as "Don't move any covid-rikishi with undefined records unless you absolutely have to". For the rest of them, I shaved the absences off the top and produced a record from that. Most simply fell into place except M10, where Ryuden rising meets others falling. That could be anywhere between M9 and M14, with varying levels of likelihood.

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1 hour ago, Yarimotsu said:

Most simply fell into place except M10, where Ryuden rising meets others falling. That could be anywhere between M9 and M14, with varying levels of likelihood.

Once I decided how to treat the mid basho covid withdrawals my biggest headache was placing Ryuden. An old rule of thumb was that you can slot the top juryo promotee directly below the worst makunouchi KK but I couldn't put him below Yutakayama. I have him at M10w which feels right but who knows...

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10 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Once I decided how to treat the mid basho covid withdrawals my biggest headache was placing Ryuden. An old rule of thumb was that you can slot the top juryo promotee directly below the worst makunouchi KK but I couldn't put him below Yutakayama. I have him at M10w which feels right but who knows...

Well, if you're wrong about Ryuden, you won't be wrong alone. (Firstprize...)

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Promoted only Ichinojō and played with promoting and demoting COVID kyūjō. There was some method, but I don't know if it is the method.

Y1e Terunofuji (11-4 J) Y1 None
None Y2 None
Ō1e Takakeishō (11-4 J) Ō1 Ō2w Shōdai (10-5)
  Ō2 Ō1w Mitakeumi (2-5-8)
  Ō3  
S1e Wakatakakage (8-7) S1 S1w Daieishō (6-7-2)
  S2  
K1e Hōshōryū (9-6) K1 K1w Abi (8-7)
M2w Ichinojō (12-3 JS) K2 None
M1e Kiribayama (8-7) M1 M2e Kotonowaka (7-4-4)
M6w Tobizaru (8-5-2) M2 M8w Nishikigi (8-5-2)
M11w Midorifuji (10-5) M3 M3w Ura (7-8)
M10w Meisei (9-6) M4 M4w Takayasu (0-0-15)
M3e Tamawashi (5-8-2) M5 M5w Sadanoumi (7-8)
M4e Wakamotoharu (6-9) M6 M12w Takarafuji (9-6)
M15e Ōnoshō (10-5) M7 M14e Myōgiryū (9-6)
M8e Tochinoshin (7-8) M8 M6e Aoiyama (6-9)
M7w Hokutofuji (6-9) M9 M9w Kotoekō (5-6-4)
M5e Endō (3-10-2) M10 M1w Takanoshō (1-6-8)
M11e Kotoshōhō (5-6-4) M11 M17e Nishikifuji (10-5 K)
M10e Chiyotairyū (6-9) M12 M13e Ichiyamamoto (6-3-6)
M7e Okinoumi (4-11) M13 M13w Chiyoshōma (7-8)
J1e Ryūden (12-3) M14 M15w Ōhō (8-7)
M16e Yutakayama (8-7) M15 M12e Terutsuyoshi (6-9)
M14w Tsurugishō (5-8-2) M16 J4w Mitoryū (9-6)
J8e Hiradoumi (10-5) M17 None
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3 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Promoted only Ichinojō and played with promoting and demoting COVID kyūjō. There was some method, but I don't know if it is the method.

On the bright side, if you're right about Kiribayama, you're probably going to win.(KaioU...)

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1 minute ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

On the bright side, if you're right about Kiribayama, you're probably going to win.(KaioU...)

Yeah. There's going to be a really wide gap in scoring; whoever guesses the minds of the committee will be in for quite a large score and everyone else is basically going to get the sanyaku + Takayasu only.

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4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

J8e Hiradoumi (10-5) M17 None

I was starting to worry that I was the only one... although I promoted Kiribayama so I had Hiradoumi at 16w

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5 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I was starting to worry that I was the only one... although I promoted Kiribayama so I had Hiradoumi at 16w

I recall being told with some vehemence that he was the most likely third promotion candidate so I doubt we're the only ones. 

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10 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I recall being told with some vehemence that he was the most likely third promotion candidate so I doubt we're the only ones. 

Correct.

GTB Prediction.jpg

Edited by Sumo Spiffy

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image.png

 

Blue = Regular KK

Red = Regular MK

Green = COVID affected

Edited by Tigerboy1966
key

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My attempt:

Terunofuji (Ye 11-4)      Y    ---
Takakeisho (O1e 11-4)     O1   Shodai (O2w 10-5)
---                       O2   Mitakeumi (2-4-c)
Wakatakakage (Se 8-7)     S    Daieisho (6-6-c)
Hoshoryu (Ke 9-6)         K1   Abi (Kw 8-7)
Ichinojo (Ms2w 12-3 Y)    K2   Kiribayama (M1e 8-7)

Kotonowaka (M2e 7-3-c)    M1   Tobizaru (M6w 8-4-c)
Nishikigi (M8w 8-4-c)     M2   Midorifuji (M11w 10-5)
Meisei (M10w 9-6)         M3   Ura (M3w 7-8)
Tamawashi (M3e 5-7-c)     M4   Takayasu (M4w 0-0-c)
Ichiyamamoto (M13e 6-2-c) M5   Sadanoumi (M5w 7-8)
Wakamotoharu (M4e 6-9)    M6   Takarafuji (M12w 9-6)
Onosho (M15e 10-5)        M7   Aoiyama (M6e 6-9)
Tochinoshin (M8e 7-8)     M8   Hokutofuji (M7w 6-8-c)
Myogiryu (M14e 9-6)       M9   Kotoeko (M9w 5-5-c)
Nishikifuji (M17e 10-5)   M10  Endo (M5e 3-9-c)
Kotoshoho (M11e 5-5-c)    M11  Ryuden (J1e 12-3 Y)
Oho (M15w 8-7)            M12  Yutakayama (M16e 8-7)
Chiyotairyu (M10e 6-9)    M13  Okinoumi (M7e 4-10-c)
Takanosho (M1w 1-6-8)     M14  Chiyoshoma (M13w 7-8)
Terutsuyoshi (M12e 6-9)   M15  Tsurugisho (M14w 5-7-c)
Mitoryu (J4w 9-6)         M16  Hiradoumi (J8e 10-5)

Ichiyamamoto vs Takarafuji strikes me as the litmus test of how far they've decided to take the giving credit for bouts missed involuntarily (if at all). I've personally gone whole hog with it, obviously.

Edited by Asashosakari

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2 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Good lord. Did you give him credit for 13-2?

I'm guessing that he's given credit for something like an 11-4 (or perhaps 12-4?) - the same sort of ratio as in matches he finished.  That's how he's managed to pass Wakamotoharu when most would likely given him credit for a +4 record, not a +7 or +8.

Edited by Gurowake

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... so we are pretty confident that Ichiyamamoto will be somewhere between M5 and M13.

I counted the fusen losses as straight-up defeats and then split the covid absences between wins and losses, so for me Ichi's 6-3-6 translated to 9-6.

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3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I'm guessing that he's given credit for something like an 11-4 (or perhaps 12-4?) - the same sort of ratio as in matches he finished.  That's how he's managed to pass Wakamotoharu when most would likely given him credit for a +4 record, not a +7 or +8.

That's just banzuke luck on top of the +4 treatment. I couldn't justify putting Wakamotoharu in front of Sadanoumi, and somebody had to be M5e. Doesn't make much of a difference to the overall approach even if you flip Waka and Ichi, though, hence my point that Ichiyamamoto and Takarafuji are the interesting pair to watch here.

Anyway, there's Nishikigi going up nearly as much on another +4 record and that appears to be uncontroversial for a 10-man sanyaku banzuke, so it's not like Ichiyamamoto's placement is particularly out of line if they're treating all missed bouts equally as just not having any effect at all.

Edited by Asashosakari

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I left both Kiribayama and Ichinojo out of sanyaku and all covid rikishi at the same rank.

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2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Anyway, there's Nishikigi going up nearly as much on another +4 record

I take your general point, but I would argue a key difference is Nishikigi actually made it to a KK before being yoinked, and his record in the context of the basho was good enough that he was matched against the eventual yūshō winner at a critical stage in the race. Of course it could be said it was luck more than anything else which gave Nishikigi four extra days to make the KK, and Ichiyamamoto might well have been in the arasoi as well, but it's more defensible to have an actual KK go up rather than a projected one.

Edited by Seiyashi
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9 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I take your general point, but I would argue a key difference is Nishikigi actually made it to a KK before being yoinked, and his record in the context of the basho was good enough that he was matched against the eventual yūshō winner at a critical stage in the race. Of course it could be said it was luck more than anything else which gave Nishikigi four extra days to make the KK, and Ichiyamamoto might well have been in the arasoi as well, but it's more defensible to have an actual KK go up rather than a projected one.

It's not a "projected" kachikoshi. It's a 6-2 record in 8 matches.

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3 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

It's not a "projected" kachikoshi. It's a 6-2 record in 8 matches.

So the question becomes, does the committee view a definite kachi-koshi (ie. one that should be treated normally) as a winning record or as eight wins? Given that Isegahama said wrestlers who had to drop out due to COVID would be treated "fairly", it seems like they're going to handle those who didn't hit eight wins or losses differently than the rest.

As for Nishikigi, part of his jump was because of the vacuum at the top with no one else to reasonably fill it. If you rate Ichiyamamoto ahead of Takarafuji, then he's also the best one for 5E, but there are at least other choices.

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4 hours ago, Kotononami said:

I left both Kiribayama and Ichinojo out of sanyaku and all covid rikishi at the same rank.

I also left covid guys at their ranks including Ichiyamamoto and Kotonowaka. Putting Ichinojo at M1e is a bold strategy tho.

 

3 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

It's not a "projected" kachikoshi. It's a 6-2 record in 8 matches.

Ichiyamamoto was 8-2 in May also, then he was put against better opponents and finished 8-7. My guess was they would have given him a rather equivalent treatment this time and his record would have suffered as well. So I went with the conservative choice : no actual KK, no promotion. Can't say I'm particularly confident.

My understanding of how they do banzuke and how they view "fairly" (which is most probably wrong) is that they wont demote them because of absences.

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