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Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Nagoya 2022

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3 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Is it the money (they're spending too much on COVID-related things and losing income)??  Or the precedent along with the money? (Never mind; money always wins over precedent).

Looking at some of the earlier cases I would have said that maybe they felt that the promotion was too cheap. I'd have agreed with them, but then yūshō from M2 and not making sekiwake feels a bit much to me.

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10 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

The reporter is guessing those that got kachikoshi or makekoshi before they pulled out will be ranked according to these records, but those who withdrew before KK/MK will either stay at their ranks or be demoted  a rank.

This sounded looney to me at first, but when I looked at it, it protects a number of rikishi with bad starts, and only Ichiyamamoto at 6-3-6 would have much to complain about, unless there is some kind of domino effect that is not obvious from my cursory review.

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33 minutes ago, Ack! said:

This sounded looney to me at first, but when I looked at it, it protects a number of rikishi with bad starts, and only Ichiyamamoto at 6-3-6 would have much to complain about, unless there is some kind of domino effect that is not obvious from my cursory review.

Are they really going to leave Kotonowaka (7-3*) at M2e?

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11 minutes ago, Ack! said:

This sounded looney to me at first, but when I looked at it, it protects a number of rikishi with bad starts, and only Ichiyamamoto at 6-3-6 would have much to complain about, unless there is some kind of domino effect that is not obvious from my cursory review.

Yeah, not giving Ichiyamamoto the benefit of being KK trending and having him eligible to be promoted up to where Takarafuji and Onosho will need to end up would be definitely worthy of complaint.  The only way he could have gotten a KK before leaving was going 8-0, and it seems very strange to potentially treat a 8-0 like a 11.5-3.5 but treat a 7-1 or 6-2 just like a kosho.  There's no granularity of the movement based on performance. 

I think the fairest thing is to have everyone who was forced to leave other than Mitakeumi (who would be frozen) be treated as winning and losing half of their remaining matches, but I have very little faith that the banzuke committee will think in the same way.  One of the problems with doing it this way is that it leads to special treatment of the projected record of the kadoban Ozeki.  They may feel they need to be consistent and freeze anyone without a determined direction of movement because they basically have to do that for Mitakeumi.  However, I feel that it does warrant different treatment because it's not a granular outcome in his case like it is for any of the other rikishi - demotion means a whole lot more for him than not bringing up Ichiyamamoto towards the joi, from where he'll likely fall back down given how the Natsu basho finished for him, plus Mitakeumi wouldn't have been demoted any further with a 0-15 than with a 7-8, and he would have had the same target number of wins to regain Ozeki regardless of MK size as well.

I think it's incredibly unlikely that they demote Mitakeumi, simply because there is good reason to give him a pass and there is a severe lack of Ozeki and Ozeki candidates.  Hoshoryu may get there eventually, as may Kotonowaka, but no one else there looks to have been strong enough at an early enough age that it's reasonable that they'll make it, and it's quite possible it'll take another 5 years for either of those two mentioned to get there, like with Mitakeumi.

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4 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Are they really going to leave Kotonowaka (7-3*) at M2e?

It's not like M2e is all that different of a rank than M1e.  Not compared to the rank difference ramification to Ichiyamamoto if he's not allowed to be considered to have a promotable record.

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9 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I think the fairest thing is to have everyone who was forced to leave other than Mitakeumi (who would be frozen) be treated as winning and losing half of their remaining matches, but I have very little faith that the banzuke committee will think in the same way.  One of the problems with doing it this way is that it leads to special treatment of the projected record of the kadoban Ozeki.

Actually, another issue with blanket applying this rule is that it would lead to Kotonowaka having a better implied rank/record than Kiribayama, which means that they'd have to consider giving him a sanyaku debut on his shortened schedule, which might be beyond the pale, especially if it meant 5 Komusubi and a difficulty of filling the joi maegashira. 

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Actually, another issue with blanket applying this rule is that it would lead to Kotonowaka having a better implied rank/record than Kiribayama, which means that they'd have to consider giving him a sanyaku debut on his shortened schedule, which might be beyond the pale, especially if it meant 5 Komusubi and a difficulty of filling the joi maegashira. 

I don't really see how that follows, considering they're regularly going against the by-the-numbers rank/record suggested promotions when a M1e kachikoshi is involved (most recently after Haru).

Edited by Asashosakari
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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Asashosakari said:

I don't really see how that follows, considering they're regularly going against the by-the-numbers rank/record suggested promotions when a M1e kachikoshi is involved (most recently after Haru).

Yes, when there's only one open slot and there's an 8-7 M1e, he gets it.  But what I meant was in relation to what they'll do when they're already making extra Komusubi, as was seen the last time it happened.  If they're already making extra ones, that leads to more being brought in, even those that normally wouldn't be, so long as without the sanyaku barrier they'd have been ranked ahead.

Edited by Gurowake

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Yes, when there's only one open slot and there's an 8-7 M1e, he gets it.  But what I meant was in relation to what they'll do when they're already making extra Komusubi, as was seen the last time it happened.  If they're already making extra ones, that leads to more being brought in, even those that normally wouldn't be, so long as without the sanyaku barrier they'd have been ranked ahead.

I see no reason to assume any kind of automatism that would extend to every possible candidate. In the previous case, it was clearly Asanoyama who was lucky to tag along with Hokutofuji, not the other way around.


Edit: If we had a basho with all-KK sanyaku, M1e 8-7, M1w 10-5, and M2e 9-6, would you seriously expect three extra komusubi to be more likely than two + the M2e getting shuffled to M1e?

Edited by Asashosakari

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1 minute ago, Asashosakari said:

I see no reason to assume any kind of automatism that would extend to every possible candidate.

Yes, the one consistency with banzuke-making is inconsistency. :-P

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I guess if one-rank movements for COVID-kyujo rikishi are fine if needed for fairness, there's no reason those can't be upward, not that there's a precedent for that.

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4 hours ago, nelimw said:

You database wizards never cease to impress me. Thanks

We like keep a few around to entertain the inept and lazy amongst us.

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I do not think that the banzuke committee will/can consider all thoughts which have been mentioned in this thread. Anybody sharing my opinion that they take the results as they are to create the next banzuke?

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3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Yeah, not giving Ichiyamamoto the benefit of being KK trending and having him eligible to be promoted up to where Takarafuji and Onosho will need to end up would be definitely worthy of complaint.  The only way he could have gotten a KK before leaving was going 8-0, and it seems very strange to potentially treat a 8-0 like a 11.5-3.5 but treat a 7-1 or 6-2 just like a kosho.  There's no granularity of the movement based on performance. 

 

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I see no reason to assume any kind of automatism that would extend to every possible candidate. 

Ichiyamamoto could be the exception made that makes this approach work for everyone else.  With the precedent established for whole-basho COVID-kyujo, partial-basho COVID kyujo would need to be treated similarly.  Any one (or more than one) of the approaches proposed in this thread could be applied to that effect.  Could be they choose to promote rikishi with winning records short of KK and NOT demote those with losing records short of MK.  Everyone is happy that way.

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9 minutes ago, Ack! said:

Could be they choose to promote rikishi with winning records short of KK and NOT demote those with losing records short of MK.  Everyone is happy that way.

FWIW, I've considered that possibility for the lower divisions and I suppose there's so much room for generosity in makuuchi this time that it might be feasible there too, but it would make the aforementioned crunch in mid-juryo even worse. That said, I'm not sure about "everybody" when e.g. somebody like Hidenoumi would see himself sail past Tohakuryu even though it's 6-9 vs 3-7.

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19 minutes ago, Ack! said:

 

Ichiyamamoto could be the exception made that makes this approach work for everyone else.  With the precedent established for whole-basho COVID-kyujo, partial-basho COVID kyujo would need to be treated similarly.  Any one (or more than one) of the approaches proposed in this thread could be applied to that effect.  Could be they choose to promote rikishi with winning records short of KK and NOT demote those with losing records short of MK.  Everyone is happy that way.

 

5 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

FWIW, I've considered that possibility for the lower divisions and I suppose there's so much room for generosity in makuuchi this time that it might be feasible there too, but it would make the aforementioned crunch in mid-juryo even worse. That said, I'm not sure about "everybody" when e.g. somebody like Hidenoumi would see himself sail past Tohakuryu even though it's 6-9 vs 3-7.

With "fairness" being mentioned as the primary consideration, I think there is going to be some manual adjusting for cases like that, regardless of the general principle(s) applied.

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7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

If Daieishō falls it'll be 2S/4K, not 3/3. I don't think he's going to fall.

So we're thinking Hōshōryū or Ichinojō has does enough to force Sekiwake?

In my mind I was thinking Wakatakakage & Daieishō remain Sekiwake, with Hōshōryū, Abi, Kiribiyama and Ichinojō all at Komusubi (order to be determined). This of course assumes a Mitakeumi kadoban reprieve.

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Posted (edited)

In this particular scenario no, I don't think either of them have done enough to force sekiwake - unless they're being very generous and trying to give both Daieishō and his would-be replacement both the benefit of the doubt to have three sekiwake.

If either of them are sekiwake it's because they've nominally demoted Daieishō, but I don't think they'll do that since his skewing loss was a fusenpai and he was 6-6 before that. If they are creating 4 komusubi I suppose it's also possible that they do demote Daieishō to K2, but I think both Ichinojō and Kiribayama being promoted or just Kiribayama being promoted is more likely.

As for KK-trending rikishi who then got yanked, it so happens that I've bumped them up both half a rank - Kotonowaka goes to M1w, and Ichiyamamoto to M12w IIRC. I wasn't prepared to definitely promote them no matter what, but it just so happens that the way the banzuke filled out, they were a more palatable alternative than the next candidate (Tobizaru in the case of Kotonowaka, Ryūden in the case of Ichiyamamoto). This was a very unusual banzuke to construct.

Edited by Seiyashi

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10 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

In this particular scenario no, I don't think either of them have done enough to force sekiwake - unless they're being very generous and trying to give both Daieishō and his would-be replacement both the benefit of the doubt to have three sekiwake.

If either of them are sekiwake it's because they've nominally demoted Daieishō, but I don't think they'll do that since his skewing loss was a fusenpai and he was 6-6 before that. If they are creating 4 komusubi I suppose it's also possible that they do demote Daieishō to K2, but I think both Ichinojō and Kiribayama being promoted or just Kiribayama being promoted is more likely.

As for KK-trending rikishi who then got yanked, it so happens that I've bumped them up both half a rank - Kotonowaka goes to M1w, and Ichiyamamoto to M12w IIRC. I wasn't prepared to definitely promote them no matter what, but it just so happens that the way the banzuke filled out, they were a more palatable alternative than the next candidate (Tobizaru in the case of Kotonowaka, Ryūden in the case of Ichiyamamoto). This was a very unusual banzuke to construct.

I take it you're pretty sold on Ichi not getting moved to K2? Bold move, cotton. I'd be very surprised by that—or, more to the point, I'm a lot more comfortable screwing up Guess The Banzuke by being wrong about Ichi going to K2 than about him not going there. (Laughing...)

TBH, Ichi 2 (Chokehold Boogaloo) is going to be the point of disaster for a lot of people competing this time around. Apart from Kotoshoho's spot, which seems unlikely to move off M11E, I've found reasons to put him everywhere from 10E to 13E. I had him even higher in the first draft, but that whole thing looked wrong for a lot of reasons.

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I take it you're pretty sold on Ichi not getting moved to K2? Bold move, cotton. I'd be very surprised by that—or, more to the point, I'm a lot more comfortable screwing up Guess The Banzuke by being wrong about Ichi going to K2 than about him not going there. (Laughing...)

TBH, Ichi 2 (Chokehold Boogaloo) is going to be the point of disaster for a lot of people competing this time around. Apart from Kotoshoho's spot, which seems unlikely to move off M11E, I've found reasons to put him everywhere from 10E to 13E. I had him even higher in the first draft, but that whole thing looked wrong for a lot of reasons.

Eh? I have him as the sole K2 in my draft. Well, now entry.

Edited by Seiyashi

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2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Eh? I have him as the sole K2 in my draft. Well, now entry.

Oh, your other post had this: 

13 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

If either of them are sekiwake it's because they've nominally demoted Daieishō, but I don't think they'll do that since his skewing loss was a fusenpai and he was 6-6 before that. If they are creating 4 komusubi I suppose it's also possible that they do demote Daieishō to K2, but I think both Ichinojō and Kiribayama being promoted or just Kiribayama being promoted is more likely.

I took that to mean that if you had only one going up, it was Kiribayama, not Ichinojo. My bad.

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8 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Oh, your other post had this: 

I took that to mean that if you had only one going up, it was Kiribayama, not Ichinojo. My bad.

Whoops. Probably typoed there. 

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