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Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Nagoya 2022

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I can totally see Kiribayama staying at M1E, aswell as Hoshoryu staying Komusubi while Ichinojo takes a third Sekiwake slot and them freezing the Covid induced MKs. Mitakeumi will be kadoban again, but regular kadoban. Right now, everything seems possible, nothing seems likely to me. 

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19 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I think the person who bets thusly after Daieishō's last yūshō is a very brave person. I think it's more likely that Ichinojō displaces a hard-luck Daieishō who goes down to K2e or something, and I don't think that's that likely at all. More likely that Kiribayama simply isn't promoted alongside Ichinojō, which I grant is also fairly likely.

Like I said: 0% chance. Chaos theory idea only.

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Quick proof-of-concept attempt at juryo, disregarding all bouts missed due to Covid:

Mitoryu (J4w 9-6)         M16  Hiradoumi (J8e 10-5)

Chiyomaru (M17w 6-9)      J1   Shimanoumi (M9e 1-14)
Chiyonokuni (J5e 8-7)     J2   Atamifuji (J6e 8-7)
Bushozan (J6w 8-7)        J3   Kagayaki (J3e 7-8)
Azumaryu (J2e 4-6)        J4   Hidenoumi (J1w 6-9)
Asanowaka (J4e 7-8)       J5   Akua (J7e 8-7)
Kotokuzan (J7w 8-7)       J6   Churanoumi (J9w 9-6)
Hokuseiho (J13w 11-4)     J7   Enho (J8w 8-7)
Daiamami (M16w 2-8-2)     J8   Tohakuryu (J2w 3-7)
Daishoho (J3w 4-8)        J9   Shimazuumi (J10e 5-3)
Kaisho (J9e 5-6)          J10  Tokushoryu (J5w 5-10)
Chiyosakae (J14e 9-6)     J11  Kitanowaka (J12e 8-7)
Oshoma (J13e 5-3)         J12  Gonoyama (J14w 8-7)
Kinbozan (Ms1w 6-1)       J13  Tochimaru (J11w 6-9)
Kanno (Ms2w 5-2)          J14  Takakento (Ms1e 4-3)

Quite ugly from J6 to J9 where too many rikishi deserve to be J8 and better, but overall it's really no worse than many "normal" rankings in juryo.
 

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Posted (edited)

*One Fusenpai ignored.

 

Chiyomaru(6-9 M17w) J1 Shimanoumi(1-14 M9e)
Hiradoumi/Chiyonokuni J2 Hidenoumi(6-9 J1w)
Kagayaki(7-8 J3e) J3 Azumaryu(4-7* J2e)
Atamifuji(8-7 J6e) J4 Asanowaka(7-8 J4e)
Bushozan(8-7 J6w) J5 Hokuseiho(11-4 J13w)
Akua(8-7 J7e) J6 Kotokuzan(8-7 J7w)
Churanoumi(9-6 J9w) J7 Enho(8-7 J8w)
Tohakuryu(3-8* J2w) J8 Daiamami(2-9* M16w)
Daishoho(4-9* J3w) J9 Shimazuumi(5-4* J10e)
Kaisho(5-7* J9e) J10 Tokushoryu(5-10 J5w)
Chiyosakae(9-6 J14e) J11 Kitanowaka(8-7 J12e)
Oshoma(5-3 J13e) J12 Kinbozan(6-1 Ms1w)
Gonoyama(8-7 J14w) J13 Takakento(4-3 Ms1e)
Kanno(5-2 Ms2w) J14 Tochimaru(6-9 J11w)
Edited by Gurowake

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18 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Not sure why you guys are focusing on the Kyokai's supposed shortcomings here. The core problem with demoting any ozeki after an 8-7 would be with the public. Complete nonsense suggestion in any real-world setting.

You know, now it finally makes sense to me why they do the whole "demote to Sekiwake and require 10 wins for immediate re-promotion" thing, as opposed to just saying "you need 10 wins at Ozeki to keep rank."

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8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

and the sheer weakness of Shimanoumi's record making a 8-7 J5e Chiyonokuni promotable.

Hiradoumi might like a word.

8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Tochiseiryū, and/or Shōnannoumi.

Shonannoumi is the much more likely of the two, I think.

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3 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I do have a theory that has about 0% chance of happening but I sort of want just to watch the reactions: Ichinojo gets pushed to S2, not K2

Well, we had Daieisho going to K2 with a 13-2 yusho from M1, so...

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Cards on the table regarding the impact of covid kyujo on the banzuke for Aki:

For my prediction I am going to treat the covid fusen losses as defeats... twas ever thus.

For subsequent absences I am treating them as 50% wins and 50% losses. And as almost all of the lads involved have an even number of such results it's quite easy to produce notional results. For instance Ichiyamamoto's 6-3-6 converts to a 9-6, and Tsurugisho's 5-8-2 converts to a 6-9. There are a couple of tricky cases in juryo: Kaisho ends up with a 6.5-8.5 and Oshoma with 8.5-6.5. And then there's Daiamami, who had two flavours of losses and absences in the same basho but is bound for mid-juryo regardless.

I am sure that the banzuke committee will act with consistency and common sense... no, sorry, I can't type that with a straight face.

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Everyone's wondering what the Banzuke committee will use as an algorithm for assigning slots for Aki.  My hunch is they will confound any algorithm as many times as they follow it. No major sport would do it that way, and strangely that's why I love Sumo.

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1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Cards on the table regarding the impact of covid kyujo on the banzuke for Aki:

For my prediction I am going to treat the covid fusen losses as defeats... twas ever thus.

For subsequent absences I am treating them as 50% wins and 50% losses. And as almost all of the lads involved have an even number of such results it's quite easy to produce notional results. For instance Ichiyamamoto's 6-3-6 converts to a 9-6, and Tsurugisho's 5-8-2 converts to a 6-9. There are a couple of tricky cases in juryo: Kaisho ends up with a 6.5-8.5 and Oshoma with 8.5-6.5. And then there's Daiamami, who had two flavours of losses and absences in the same basho but is bound for mid-juryo regardless.

I am sure that the banzuke committee will act with consistency and common sense... no, sorry, I can't type that with a straight face.

I think this makes the most sense, but really, I would be astonished if we didn't get word of what they plan to do before the banzuke is released. At minimum, given how quickly we got word that Mitakeumi should be safe at ozeki, I think we're going to find out how specific wrestlers will be treated and then be able to extrapolate most circumstances from there.

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6 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:
7 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Cards on the table regarding the impact of covid kyujo on the banzuke for Aki:

For my prediction I am going to treat the covid fusen losses as defeats... twas ever thus.

For subsequent absences I am treating them as 50% wins and 50% losses. And as almost all of the lads involved have an even number of such results it's quite easy to produce notional results. For instance Ichiyamamoto's 6-3-6 converts to a 9-6, and Tsurugisho's 5-8-2 converts to a 6-9. There are a couple of tricky cases in juryo: Kaisho ends up with a 6.5-8.5 and Oshoma with 8.5-6.5. And then there's Daiamami, who had two flavours of losses and absences in the same basho but is bound for mid-juryo regardless.

I am sure that the banzuke committee will act with consistency and common sense... no, sorry, I can't type that with a straight face.

I think this makes the most sense, but really, I would be astonished if we didn't get word of what they plan to do before the banzuke is released. At minimum, given how quickly we got word that Mitakeumi should be safe at ozeki, I think we're going to find out how specific wrestlers will be treated and then be able to extrapolate most circumstances from there.

While I also agree it's roughly what they will do, I don't think they'll be so algorithmic about it and definitely come down on the 50/50 line. More likely that there'll be some leeway that will manifest itself in the form of banzuke luck, so some 6-6s will be frozen, some might go up a rank, some might go down, etcetc.

We're also not likely to get specific commitments other than for the wrestlers we already know (Mitakeumi, Nishikigi, Tamawashi). My guess is that we'll just get a general statement that they will try to be fair to wrestlers considering that they didn't fight the full 15 days and that they will, as before, try and keep wrestlers in roughly the same places that they deserve. Since we know of all the borderline cases, I think it's safe to say all those in exchange situations won't be forcibly exchanged, except Daiamami who was already having a bad enough basho before the withdrawal.

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I didn't follow the whole discussion here, so it probably has been mentioned already, but for me the whole mess boils down to one question: will Endo be treated differently than Takayasu?

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21 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

I didn't follow the whole discussion here, so it probably has been mentioned already, but for me the whole mess boils down to one question: will Endo be treated differently than Takayasu?

For me the answer is yes. One was completely out, the other had a shambles of a basho before he was saved from embarrassing himself further. Bit like Daiamami, in that respect, actually.

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So Endo drops while Takayasu won't?

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4 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

So Endo drops while Takayasu won't?

Think so. Endō probably won't drop as far as he should had he stayed and fought (and lost) his remaining bouts; it's troublesome enough to fill the joi as it is. But let's wait to see if the NSK announces anything more specific.

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On 24/07/2022 at 11:53, Seiyashi said:

I don't think they're going to bind themselves to a specific rule or method, though, like extrapolating a rikishi's record to determine their final record. Most likely there's going to be some discrepancy across how all rikishi are treated; some will get more leniency than others. It's more likely that the COVID kyūjōs are treated a bit like playing with a deck a quarter full of jokers; they'll try and put rikishi who managed to fight all 15/7 days where they should be, and then stuff in the kyūjō rikishi in sensible places.

You took the words out of my fingers.

But let's not kid ourselves. The end result will be outrageous regardless.

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On 24/07/2022 at 04:53, Seiyashi said:

I don't think they're going to bind themselves to a specific rule or method, though, like extrapolating a rikishi's record to determine their final record. Most likely there's going to be some discrepancy across how all rikishi are treated; some will get more leniency than others. It's more likely that the COVID kyūjōs are treated a bit like playing with a deck a quarter full of jokers; they'll try and put rikishi who managed to fight all 15/7 days where they should be, and then stuff in the kyūjō rikishi in sensible places.

1 hour ago, yorikiried by fate said:

You took the words out of my fingers.

But let's not kid ourselves. The end result will be outrageous regardless.

I don't know how to do the multi-quote properly, so this is ugly. But:

We're focused on the COVID-kyujo records, but let's not forget the extreme amount of upward pressure there is on this banzuke. A lot of wrestlers are in a position to be minimally demoted because guys like Myogiryu are already getting, like, six rank promotions at 9-6, or Onosho eight or nine at 10-5, and "proper" demotions for everyone who finished (e.g. Aoiyama and Wakamotoharu) means an even bigger jump for those guys.

I do think some of those bigger jumps will happen, but some of the placements if everyone who went the full 15 is demoted according to usual standards would be pretty wild. It would also fit to offer a touch of leniency to guys like Aoiyama and Hokutofuji, who were stuck with sanyaku fights they would never be expected to take in a more normal tournament.

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Along with all the other distortions, many bouts were between rikishi much farther apart in rank than normal - thus advantaging the high ranked and disadvantaging the lower ranked.  I hope that sense rather than formula is applied to this mess.

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4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Think so. Endō probably won't drop as far as he should had he stayed and fought (and lost) his remaining bouts; it's troublesome enough to fill the joi as it is. But let's wait to see if the NSK announces anything more specific.

Then the middling case is Takanosho (1-6-8); how do you think he will be treated?

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8 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I don't know how to do the multi-quote properly, so this is ugly. But:

If you want to do nested quotes, then just highlight the post itself and a Quote Selection popup button should appear. That'll do the trick.

If you want to quote from multiple posts then you can just use the quote function at the bottom of the posts, and you may have to do some cut and paste to make it work.

I'm working on a draft now but my initial impression is there's a lot of downward pressure instead - unless we both mean the same thing and you mean there's a void at the top and a lot of people supposedly heading down.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Then the middling case is Takanosho (1-6-8); how do you think he will be treated?

This isn't a middling case. Takanoshō withdrew with injury before COVID hell started breaking loose; he'll drop as a 1-14 will. I don't think the banzuke committee will be that merciful to everyone, otherwise we see the travesty of Daiamami staying in makuuchi. His record was primarily caused by poor injury before Endō's infection put him (and the spectators) out of their misery.

Edited by Seiyashi
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4 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

If you want to quote from multiple posts then you can just use the quote function at the bottom of the posts, and you may have to do some cut and paste to make it work.

(Iamgoingoff-topic...)Ever tried the  +  button left to the Quote link?

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1 minute ago, Jakusotsu said:

(Iamgoingoff-topic...)Ever tried the  +  button left to the Quote link?

As a matter of fact, no! (Oops!)

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8 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

(Iamgoingoff-topic...)Ever tried the  +  button left to the Quote link?

I did, and it just said "Quote 1 post". If I clicked that, I simply quoted that post, not any others within it. That seemed to be the obvious method, so when it didn't work the way I expected, I was puzzled and just moved on.

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8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I'm working on a draft now but my initial impression is there's a lot of downward pressure instead - unless we both mean the same thing and you mean there's a void at the top and a lot of people supposedly heading down.

I think we do mean the same thing. You're talking about the initial moves, I believe. To me, initial movement is just that—setting everyone up based on record. The pressure comes when gaps need to be filled—if there are openings, then there are ranks with multiple people, and someone has to get popped into the gaps. So, if there are openings that require moving guys up to fill them, that's upward pressure (they must be moved up to make the rankings work). Likewise, if there's a glut and people are going to get shoved downward, that's downward pressure.

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