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Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Nagoya 2022

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Right; the worst his "computed rank" can be with a loss is M17e, while the best Mitoryu can do is M18w, and Kagayaki and Chiyonokuni M19e, so there is no way they end up ahead of him. Shimanoumi and Chiyomaru are gone because even with a win, they're at M20, which is unacceptable unless there are no remotely plausible candidates to take their places.

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3 hours ago, Reonito said:
7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:
7 hours ago, Nantonoyama said:

Let's be creative! I would say that the 2-5 of Mitakeumi would need a 9-6 in Aki to cancel out => 11-11 across both basho, one of the losses being the fusen. A 8-7 in Aki could then be a demotable record. Wouldn't that be fair?

I think it is beyond the NSK's collective cognitive capabilities. I think they just deal with him separately and just keep him kadoban next basho, since it's easier to justify that way because of his ōzeki status. 

Yeah demoting someone with a kachi-koshi goes against such core principles that it would break their brains.

Not sure why you guys are focusing on the Kyokai's supposed shortcomings here. The core problem with demoting any ozeki after an 8-7 would be with the public. Complete nonsense suggestion in any real-world setting.

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1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

More to the point, two things have to happen for Yutakayama to be demoted:

1. Once the initial calculations are done, he has to be ranked 43rd or below amongst all the rikishi. By that I mean, think of M16E as being 39th of the 42 makuuchi slots. When the calculations are done, the "correct" makuuchi members are the top 42 on that list. He would need to be below that group.

That implies that there's some sort of objective standard by which to assign an ordinal ranking that then just gets transformed into banzuke form, but neither part reflects how the banzuke is actually created.

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I haven't read this thread but I have to say that I see no way the Kyokai promotes or demotes anybody who left due to Covid other than maybe 1 rank down in great need. . If they do anything they all stay at their rank and work around them as best they can. Including Mitakeumi.

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17 minutes ago, Rocks said:

I haven't read this thread but I have to say that I see no way the Kyokai promotes or demotes anybody who left due to Covid other than maybe 1 rank down in great need. . If they do anything they all stay at their rank and work around them as best they can. Including Mitakeumi.

This would create gigantic banzuke problems. E.g. if you don't promote the likes of Tobizaru and Nishikigi, who were 8-5 when they got yanked, it's gonna be awfully hard to fill out the upper maegashira ranks. I think the only way to do it is based on their win-loss differential in bouts they actually fought, possibly including the one fusenpai (although not everyone got one of those, depending on the timing of the withdrawal relative to when the next torikumi was made).

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Reonito said:

This would create gigantic banzuke problems. E.g. if you don't promote the likes of Tobizaru and Nishikigi, who were 8-5 when they got yanked, it's gonna be awfully hard to fill out the upper maegashira ranks. I think the only way to do it is based on their win-loss differential in bouts they actually fought, possibly including the one fusenpai (although not everyone got one of those, depending on the timing of the withdrawal relative to when the next torikumi was made).

Sorry, obviously if you got your KK before withdrawing you will be promoted. My comment mostly had to do with those with incomplete records. Mitakeumi is just going to get a gift. I don't think they will be promoting anybody with less than 8 wins, even Kotonowaka or base a KK on wining a majority of bouts fought rather than 8 wins.

Edited by Rocks

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Posted (edited)

In the realm of non-standard banzuke decisions, I don't believe this case from a few years ago was brought up yet:
 

On 27/03/2017 at 11:38, Kintamayama said:

In all the senshuraku excitement, the "extreme fadicha" ( palm on the forehead smacking "I hope the earth will swallow me up" situation in one word in Hebrew and Arabic) was overlooked.

Sandanme. The bout between Nishiyama and Midorifuji. Nishiyama's mawashi comes undone partially and the front part touches the ground. He is disqualified and is given a loss by default. The problem is that the rules specifically say "if the front of the mawashi touches the ground it is not a loss". The five shinpan on the shift- Kokonoe, Tagonoura, Tatekawa, Irumagawa and Chiganoura were severely reprimanded by Nishonoseki chief judge. "This is totally unacceptable.." he said. The result stands though, as it can't be changed after the fact.

 

On 01/05/2017 at 17:10, Asashosakari said:
On 30/04/2017 at 23:23, Yubinhaad said:

Excellent - last basho, Nishiyama finished 4-3 after losing his final bout due to this hansoku blunder by the shimpan. The banzuke committee flexed their muscles and gave him a larger promotion than he would have had otherwise, putting him at Makushita 60w. I did hear that this was being considered straight after the basho, and I'm glad they did it.

It looks like they've essentially treated his record as 4-2, as though the bout in question never happened. That's going to be quite the trivia answer in the future...

The fun part here is that they already had an excess of promotees from sandanme even without him. Very heavy demotions from makushita as a result of that. The real loser is now Rikito who got dropped to sandanme while both Nishiyama and his opponent are in makushita (which wouldn't have happened without the misjudgement).

Context

Of course it's impossible to know if they really intended to treat the bogus loss as "did not happen" and scored him like a 4-2, or if the logic was just simply "we cost him the chance to get promoted, let's stick him in the last spot". (That happened in a different way once, but not via a judging error - Futagozakura's record was misread as 6-1 rather than 7-0 + playoff loss, and they originally put him at Jd44e instead of the Sd95-ish he deserved to be. Upon discovery they created Sd101e for him to avoid changing anything else.)

But it's clear from that Nishiyama case that it's certainly not impossible for them to discount/disregard scores that are considered unwarranted. Of course they'd have to do it x150 or so this time around...

Edited by Asashosakari
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2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:
3 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

More to the point, two things have to happen for Yutakayama to be demoted:

1. Once the initial calculations are done, he has to be ranked 43rd or below amongst all the rikishi. By that I mean, think of M16E as being 39th of the 42 makuuchi slots. When the calculations are done, the "correct" makuuchi members are the top 42 on that list. He would need to be below that group.

That implies that there's some sort of objective standard by which to assign an ordinal ranking that then just gets transformed into banzuke form, but neither part reflects how the banzuke is actually created.

So do you think Yutakayama is safe if he MKs and K2 is created?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

Of course it's impossible to know if they really intended to treat the bogus loss as "did not happen" and scored him like a 4-2, or if the logic was just simply "we cost him the chance to get promoted, let's stick him in the last spot". (That happened in a different way once, but not via a judging error - Futagozakura's record was misread as 6-1 rather than 7-0 + playoff loss, and they originally put him at Jd44e instead of the Sd95-ish he deserved to be. Upon discovery they created Sd101e for him to avoid changing anything else.)

But it's clear from that Nishiyama case that it's certainly not impossible for them to discount/disregard scores that are considered unwarranted. Of course they'd have to do it x150 or so this time around...

Out of reacts for the time being, but massively interesting, and increases the nuance possible with banzuke decisions. That actually points towards them making a reasonably fair banzuke this time out, which suggests no status changes, minimal demotions for those yanked with a majority of losses though not technically an MK yet, and even promotions for the likes of Kotonowaka, Tobizaru, and Nishikigi. It needn't be as simplistic as a blunt rule applied across the whole of the banzuke.

Edited by Seiyashi

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32 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

So do you think Yutakayama is safe if he MKs and K2 is created?

That's where the lack of objective standards comes in... It certainly feels like the last few years' lenient treatment of MKs will have to mean he's safe there given the unimpressive scores in juryo, but it's always possible that they suddenly get back to some kind of "he's MK at what's now the last rank => he has to go" thinking, and they just decide to bring up whoever in his place.

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4 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

The core problem with demoting any ozeki after an 8-7 would be with the public.

At least in my scenario that I mentioned Mitakeumi might be required to get 9 wins to clear kadoban, I meant that an 8-7 would not be a demotion or clear kadoban, but leave him as a kadoban Ozeki for Kyushu.  I'm not sure what the person who repeated it in this thread meant, but that's what I intended when I suggested it last week. 

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Well, with only two clear promotion cases in upper jūryō and one really heavy squint (Chiyonokuni), Yutakayama is probably safe even if he doesn't KK. Kagayaki and Asanowaka failed to make their case.

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And with that win I believe Mitoryu will now finally break into the makuuchi division

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All divisions yūshō recap
Makuuchi: 12-3Y M2w Ichinojō
Jūryō: 12-3Y J1e Ryūden
Makushita: 7-0Y Ms38e Yoshii
Sandanme: 7-0Y Sd22w Asanoyama
Jonidan: 7-0Y Jd62e Hitoshi
Jonokuchi: 6-1Y Jk17w Takahashi

It didn't need a playoff after all, as Ichinojō emphatically dispatched Ura to deny the latter his KK and Terunofuji fell to a resurgent Takakeishō. The yokozuna was bested at the tachiai for the second time in two days and remained off-balance for most of the bout, taking multiple hits from Takakeishō's double tsuppari thrusts to the chest before finally putting a foot over the bales. That left the two of them at 11-4, handing the yūshō to Ichinojō with a 12-3Y. Frankly, a 11-4 tomoesen would have been a more fitting ending to an utter mess of a basho, but Ichinojō finally gets his yūshō after being denied by a dominant Hakuhō on two previous occasions and suffering injury woes for much of the past two years.

Ryūden lost to Myōgiryū but the result was academic, having secured his yūshō a day before. They did wait for his bout to be over to conduct the jonokuchi playoff, which Takahashi won with a rather straightforward force out. Jonidan yūshō winner, Hitoshi, was not represented at the ceremony, his Oitekaze stable being forced to withdraw just hours after his yūshō-securing bout, although they did do him the courtesy of announcing his championship.

Asanoyama's yūshō puts him to around the Ms15 line, where luck will see if he can return to jūryō in one basho or two. Yoshii's yūshō puts him in the joi next basho where a good result and/or some luck will see him promoted to sekitori for the first time. Ryūden has made his promotion case beyond doubt, and Ichinojō's yūshō (combined with Kiribayama's win) most likely secures a return to komusubi and bringing his fellow Mongolian along for the ride.

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Posted (edited)

Post-Basho Promotion/Demotion Picture:

Legend:
? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku
           
Next Result East Rank West Result Next
  11-4 Terunofuji Y      
  11-4 Takakeisho O Mitakeumi 2-5-8 ?
  O Shodai 10-5 O
O 8-7 Wakatakakage S Daieisho 6-7-2 ?
O 9-6 Hoshoryu K Abi 8-7 O
O 8-7 Kiribayama M1 Takanosho 1-6-8 X
? 7-4-4 Kotonowaka M2 Ichinojo 12-3 O
? 5-8-2 Tamawashi M3 Ura 7-8 X
X 6-9 Wakamotoharu M4 Takayasu 0-0-15 ?

Ichinojō and Kiribayama both won today to make K2 exceedingly likely next basho. The only question is who the four komusubi will be.

The simplest move is to just add Ichinojō and Kiribayama as K2e/w respectively. This respects the precedent set by Daieishō's 13-2Y from M1w, as well as giving Daieishō the benefit of the doubt due to his COVID kyūjō.

It's also possible that the banzuke committee reads Daieishō's result as a nominal MK and sees fit to demote him to komusubi, COVID kyūjō notwithstanding. If Hōshōryū takes the sekiwake slot, this approach has the advantage of giving the KK joi a nominal promotion, since everyone will slide over, giving us Hōshōryu at S1w, Abi at K1e, Ichinojō at K1w, Daieishō at K2e, and Kiribayama at K2w. It's also possible that Ichinojō leapfrogs Hōshōryū for an immediate return to sekiwake, keeping Hōshōryū and Abi in place instead.

In other news, the joi will be difficult to fill next basho. Other than Kiribayama and Ichinojō, who are likely to ascend to sanyaku, no one else has a winning record in this area (Ura lost today to Ichinojō, exacerbating the problem). To add to the problem, Takanoshō has a bad, non-COVID-related record. The solution to this problem may well involve Kotonowaka moving up to M1, based on an extrapolation of his record; lenient demotions (if any at all) may also be in store for Ura and Tamawashi despite the latter having hit a traditional MK factoring in the forced fusenpai.That's still only 4 slots spoken for (including Takayasu); the banzuke committee will have to reach further down for M6w Tobizaru (8-5-2), M8w Nishikigi (8-5-2), M10w Meisei (9-6), and M11w Midorifuji (10-5) to fill the rest of the joi.

Makuuchi-Jūryō
Next Result East Rank West Result Next
X 1-14 Shimanoumi M9 Kotoeko 5-6-4 ?
  6-9 Chiyotairyu M10 Meisei 9-6 O
? 5-6-4 Kotoshoho M11 Midorifuji 10-5 O
  6-9 Terutsuyoshi M12 Takarafuji 9-6 O
? 6-3-6 Ichiyamamoto M13 Chiyoshoma 7-8  
O 9-6 Myogiryu M14 Tsurugisho 5-8-2 ?
O 10-5 Onosho M15 Oho 8-7 O
O 8-7 Yutakayama M16 Daiamami 2-9-4 X
O 10-5 Nishikifuji M17 Chiyomaru 6-9 X
O 12-3 Ryuden J1 Hidenoumi 6-9 X
? 4-7-4 Azumaryu J2 Tohakuryu 3-8-4 ?
X 7-8 Kagayaki J3 Daishoho 4-9-2 ?
X 7-8 Asanowaka J4 Mitoryu 9-6 O
O 8-7 Chiyonokuni J5 Tokushoryu 5-10 X
  8-7 Atamifuji J6 Bushozan 8-7  
  8-7 Akua J7 Kotokuzan 8-7  

Yutakayama's win and Kagayaki's and Asanowaka's losses today significantly cleared up the exchange picture, even as M17 is likely to disappear due to Ichinojō and Kiribayama forcing K2 further up the banzuke. There will be only 3 exchanges after all; Daiamami and Chiyomaru going down for Ryūden and Mitoryū, and the sheer weakness of Shimanoumi's record making a 8-7 J5e Chiyonokuni promotable.

Jūryō-Makushita
Next Result East Rank West Result Next
O 10-5 Hiradoumi J8 Enho 8-7 O
? 5-7-3 Kaisho J9 Churanoumi 9-6 O
? 5-4-6 Shimazuumi J10 Ishiura 0-0-15 X
X 5-10 Kaisei J11 Tochimaru 6-9 ~
O 8-7 Kitanowaka J12 Yago 4-11 X
? 5-3-7 Oshoma J13 Hokuseiho 11-4 O
O 9-6 Chiyosakae J14 Gonoyama 8-7 O
O 4-3 Takakento Ms1 Kinbozan 6-1 O
~ 4-3 Roga Ms2 Kanno 5-2 O
~ 4-3 Tomokaze Ms3 Daishomaru 3-3-1 ?
X 3-4 Kamito Ms4 Chiyonoumi 3-4 X
X 2-6 Chiyoarashi Ms5 Shohozan 0-0  

Not much movement in this area. Despite dropping one more bout, Tochimaru is likely safe due to winning his exchange bout with Rōga and 6-9 not being a very demotable record from J11 anyway. That confirms that Yago, Kaisei, and absent Ishiura will go down in favour of Takakentō, Kinbōzan and Kanno, with Roga and Tomokaze knocking on the gates of heaven next time out. They're likely to be joined by Yago and Kaisei (if he sticks around), Daishōmaru who'll likely be frozen, yūshō winner Yoshii, and makushita KKs Tsukahara, Tsushimanada, Fujiseiun, Tochiseiryū, and/or Shōnannoumi. Shiden may also be a surprise return if Kaisei retires before the banzuke is made.

Edited by Seiyashi

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Time for the elephant in the room: what are they going to do with COVID kyūjō records?

Going by their previous announcements of a) trying to be fair to forcibly-benched rikishi and b) their preservation of Tamawashi and Nishikigi's ironman streaks, I think it's safe to say that  they are going to err on the more lenient side of things. They won't be doing wholesale demotions of people simply because they haven't hit a traditional KK, and even those who hit a traditional MK before they were yanked might get some benefit of the doubt as to the badness of their record. So that means Mitakeumi remains kadoban, and those with near MKs near divisional exchange lines won't go down.

I don't think they're going to bind themselves to a specific rule or method, though, like extrapolating a rikishi's record to determine their final record. Most likely there's going to be some discrepancy across how all rikishi are treated; some will get more leniency than others. It's more likely that the COVID kyūjōs are treated a bit like playing with a deck a quarter full of jokers; they'll try and put rikishi who managed to fight all 15/7 days where they should be, and then stuff in the kyūjō rikishi in sensible places.

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Am I the only one in favor of not promoting Kiribayama? Even with Ichinojo's help, 8-7 doesn't feel very forcing.

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3 minutes ago, Kaito said:

Am I the only one in favor of not promoting Kiribayama? Even with Ichinojo's help, 8-7 doesn't feel very forcing.

He is at the highest maegashira rank and the last M1e to not be promoted was Ryukō in 1969. Since then Mitoizumi and Konishiki have forced K2s in the 90s. Old precedents, to be sure, but with Ichinojō opening K2 anyway he might as well be rewarded for a KK in that position. He's already been komusubi anyway so it's not like the banzuke committee are giving him an ill-deserved promotion or a cheap one-time appearance in the sanyaku.

On the other hand, what might keep him at M1e is the absolute dearth of normally reasonable candidates to fill the joi slots. But that seems to go against the general atmosphere of mercy that's going to go round the next banzuke.

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3 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

As a Hiradoumi fan (I like his intensity), I would like to point out that 10-5 from J8 can be promotable, if the barrel is being scraped...

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=j8&form1_wins=10&form1_losses=5&form2_rank=m

Hm. It's true, by the numbers he has a better claim than Chiyonokuni. The cases you all cited had J8 being the last KK promotable record though, so I don't know about in this banzuke where there are a whole bunch of KK rikishi before him. 

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3 hours ago, Kaito said:

Am I the only one in favor of not promoting Kiribayama? Even with Ichinojo's help, 8-7 doesn't feel very forcing.

It doesn't, but since 2004, the only time I could find where 8-7s at any rank were not promoted at all was from Kyushu 2019 to Hatsu 2020, and the middle ranks of that banzuke were so jammed there was a ton of downward pressure. (sumodb's query function doesn't lend itself well to these sort of searches, but I tried to be thorough.) Furthermore, as Seiyashi said, the last time such a rikishi wasn't promoted was in 1969; in five instances, three of which were after that (1958, 1961, 1976, 1992, and 1995), there was a circumstance like this one, where a lower-ranked wrestler was clearly more worthy of a komusubi slot, but they opened one for the M1E as well anyway. None of this is recent precedent, but it's at least more recent, and as Sei said, there's already going to be a K2 for Ichinojo, so slipping Kiribayama into the other half of that seems like an even easier choice.

I know a forced K slot feels like it should be different, but there simply aren't many instances where an 8-7 M1E went to komusubi without a slot naturally opening up at all, so it's hard to find information to base a probable decision on.

I do have a theory that has about 0% chance of happening but I sort of want just to watch the reactions: Ichinojo gets pushed to S2, not K2, and Kiribayama thusly doesn't get promoted. If Kiri also got pushed to K2, that would make more sense but also take away the spectator aspect for me, so it's important for this theory that Kiri get stuck.

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4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

(...) with Roga and Tomokaze knocking on the gates of heaven next time out. They're likely to be joined by Yago and Kaisei (if he sticks around), Daishōmaru who'll likely be frozen, yūshō winner Yoshii, and makushita KKs Tsukahara, Tsushimanada, Fujiseiun, and Tochiseiryū. Shiden may be a surprise return if Kaisei retires before the banzuke is made.

Shonannoumi?

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Ichinojo gets pushed to S2, not K2, and Kiribayama thusly doesn't get promoted. If Kiri also got pushed to K2, that would make more sense but also take away the spectator aspect for me, so it's important for this theory that Kiri get stuck.

I think the person who bets thusly after Daieishō's last yūshō is a very brave person. I think it's more likely that Ichinojō displaces a hard-luck Daieishō who goes down to K2e or something, and I don't think that's that likely at all. More likely that Kiribayama simply isn't promoted alongside Ichinojō, which I grant is also fairly likely.

Edited by Seiyashi

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Asashosakari said:

Shonannoumi?

I need better reading glasses. The best part is I believe I did cite him as a possible joi candidate last time out I did one of these.

Edited by Seiyashi
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