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Jakusotsu

Games Talk - Nagoya Basho 2022

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The Odd bet to tie actually won, but I unfortunately switched to a "safer" pick wherein I trusted Tochinoshin and blundered the potential yusho. (Idunno...)

I'm doing well in some games tonight, but not the ones I wanted.

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I think @Athenayama beat me out the Hoshitori yusho by a few points.

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53 minutes ago, Kaito said:

The Odd bet to tie actually won, but I unfortunately switched to a "safer" pick wherein I trusted Tochinoshin and blundered the potential yusho. (Idunno...)

You still would have lost the yusho with other bet.

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Grats on the TTT yusho, Ganz. Despite Rocks's faith in the top 3, they all lost on Terunofuji for the 2nd straight day and were overtaken.

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6 minutes ago, Kaito said:

Grats on the TTT yusho, Ganz. Despite Rocks's faith in the top 3, they all lost on Terunofuji for the 2nd straight day and were overtaken.

Yes, but not by you even with a win. Ganzo was in a position to make a decent pick and win the tiebrekaer with Jakusotsu. Not you. That's not even counting the 3 guys you were tied with and ahead of you that had to lose. Just because there were long shots that could come in doesn't mean you were close. I lost 114 point bet by 1 match on Day 14. Doesn't mean I had a good shot at winning the Odd Yusho. Be happy you got Top 10s.

 

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36 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Yes, but not by you even with a win. Ganzo was in a position to make a decent pick and win the tiebrekaer with Jakusotsu. Not you. That's not even counting the 3 guys you were tied with and ahead of you that had to lose. Just because there were long shots that could come in doesn't mean you were close. I lost 114 point bet by 1 match on Day 14. Doesn't mean I had a good shot at winning the Odd Yusho. Be happy you got Top 10s.

 

You previously implied that I hadn't had a shot because of who the 3 in the lead were. In fact, the opportunity was there. It's easy for an overwhelming majority to lose in TTT when the popular picks don't come through. I didn't actually go for the tiebreak winning play so naturally I didn't improve my tiebreaker. I don't think the necessary picks even came through today. If they had, the opportunity was there.

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My 4th TTT yusho for sure was the luckiest and most surprising one. Did not waste.any thought of it when I made my picks last night. Now I feel like Ichinojo.(Secondprize...)

Ganzohnesushi 

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15 hours ago, Rocks said:

I'd be more worried about someone behind you passing you than tying Choshu-yuki .

B-)

I don't know what the tightest margin of victory is, but my second yusho in Nagoya 2020 was by only .03

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5 hours ago, Kaito said:

You previously implied that I hadn't had a shot because of who the 3 in the lead were. In fact, the opportunity was there. It's easy for an overwhelming majority to lose in TTT when the popular picks don't come through. I didn't actually go for the tiebreak winning play so naturally I didn't improve my tiebreaker. I don't think the necessary picks even came through today. If they had, the opportunity was there.

The opportunity is always there, that doesn't make it likely. You would have had to make a long shot and still need help.  No reason to feel bad you didn't win. I posted about not wining that 114 point bet earlier not because I thought it would win me the yusho but because that's the closet I've ever come to hitting a bet over 100.

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26 minutes ago, Rocks said:

The opportunity is always there, that doesn't make it likely. You would have had to make a long shot and still need help.  No reason to feel bad you didn't win. I posted about not wining that 114 point bet earlier not because I thought it would win me the yusho but because that's the closet I've ever come to hitting a bet over 100.

What I speculated was that my odds ranged from over 1% to possibly over 5%. I certainly didn't say a win was likely. I was surprised to see an opening to attempt to yusho at all, given my poor start, poor tiebreaker, and many people in front of me.

Just to throw some rough estimates out...the chance of randomly picking 2 winners from the torikumi only starts at 25%, and should be worse from the set of available TTT picks, then worse still when you're targeting the ones with the worst win differentials. Still, if you'll allow that something like Tokushoryu +4 to win (vs Hiradoumi) and Nishikifuji +3 to lose (vs Hokutofuji) has a 20-25% of coming off, then if you get this kind of trap-filled day where all the leaders lose once every 5 days, you've got about 4-5% to hit both scenarios. You could also shave a couple percent off for the chance a player with a better tiebreaker does the same thing and hits, but I correctly assumed nobody else would be attempting any such thing. With the aforementioned picks, only Oskahanada (who also picked Hokutofuji) could have hit and beaten my TB by 1 (he started 6 ahead). There were other options to go for +4 and +4, or even +7 from Shimanoumi, but I didn't want to touch him with a 10-foot pole.

Anyway, given that I didn't go for it and I lost, I indeed do not feel bad about the result. I retained most of the points that I was interested in protecting.

I know using Hokutofuji wasn't the best example since he didn't fight, but that wasn't known until after the deadline, and that was a real set of picks I remember considering.

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Posted (edited)

@Kaito Ganzo basically did what you would call riskier. At worst   you were going to finish in a crowd of people with a few points no matter what you did. You did. Had you won your safe bet you would have still lost the yusho and gained a few more points. If the most likely scenario had played out and one of the 3 excellent players tied for the lead had won and you had hit your bet you would have gained a little more but less than Ganzo in the first scenario. There was practically no reason not to make the risky bet.  In your dream scenario you need 6 people to fail. In your safe scenario you basically needed the same to gain a few more. You should have just gone for it. Like your position in Odd if you  aren't really risking much, no matter how risky the pick, why not just go for it? Why worry about trying to cut it so fine?

1 hour ago, Kaito said:

I correctly assumed nobody else would be attempting any such thing

No, this was incorrect. Kotononami and Oskahanada did do that and win with you, you lose yusho. Plus you needed Fujisan to not suddenly show up and make a winning pick. And beat  Ganzo  who picked correctly. Golynohana basically did the same as you which is figure out you had virtually zero shot at the win and go for a tied second. +4 was never getting you the yusho unless 7 people failed. You suggest you were in the same position to make the move Ganzo did, you weren't. 

Edited by Rocks

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I think you're confused. Ganz finished at -2. I started at -8. If I had picked two rikishi at +4 each and they won, I could have finished at 0. The pick Oskahanada made would also land at 0 with a win.

For Fujisan, it was the 3rd absence in a row. If he had reappeared, I would've needed him to lose for sure. I already needed a difficult day.

I did miss Kotononami's nice bet. Looks like he was the most hurt by Hokutofuji's withdrawal. If he'd won, I only could have bested his tiebreaker by winning with Shimanoumi, which I was pretty averse to trying.

I wouldn't say there's no risk. If I lose on an easy day, I could be tied for 10th with 10 people, divvying up 1 point.

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26 minutes ago, Kaito said:

For Fujisan, it was the 3rd absence in a row.

That is really something to worry about. Hopefully Fujisan is fine and only technical issues are the reason for his absence. He made his Toto entry on Day 13 with 17 x-picks, something he usually doesn't do. And in most other games he was droning or his entry was missing on that day. Seems as if in the middle of his Toto entry something weird must have happened...

Ganzohnesushi

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11 hours ago, Rocks said:

I think @Athenayama beat me out the Hoshitori yusho by a few points.

Well, I didn't want to react at the time you wrote that. I needed to see the official results. It was very close indeed and actually a very nice surprise for me considering how far in the rankings I was in the beginning and still ranked #35 on day 9. The last 6 days changed it all. 1st yusho at Hoshitori's, nice !
Sorry for you @Rocks please don't be mad at me. :-) 

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Just now, Athenayama said:

Well, I didn't want to react at the time you wrote that. I needed to see the official results. It was very close indeed and actually a very nice surprise for me considering how far in the rankings I was in the beginning and still ranked #35 on day 9. The last 6 days changed it all. 1st yusho at Hoshitori's, nice !
Sorry for you @Rocks please don't be mad at me. :-) 

No problem. Congrats! (Clappingwildly...)(Bigfish...) Very smart to pick Nishikifuji. I almost did and changed my mind in the end.

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5 hours ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

That is really something to worry about. Hopefully Fujisan is fine and only technical issues are the reason for his absence. He made his Toto entry on Day 13 with 17 x-picks, something he usually doesn't do. And in most other games he was droning or his entry was missing on that day. Seems as if in the middle of his Toto entry something weird must have happened...

Ganzohnesushi

Yeah, I made his juryo game entry for him as well, he said there were technical issues. 

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Posted (edited)

There's a game no other foreigners are playing called Hashi. I've been playing it for 15 years or more, maybe 20, who knows.  19 years. It's totally in Japanese, you have to figure out how to register etc. in Japanese. 3 matches per day, you get a win if you get at least 2 of them right.  Got my 4th Makuuchi yusho. I am ranked at M20, the lowest Maegashira rank- I used to be Ozeki but when you drop, you drop to the bottom of the banzuke-one MK is enough to drop you, as far as I remember.. Game not a member of the Super Banzuke of course..

This is the link, in case anyone else wants to try..

http://hashiweb.jp/yosou/

Edited by Kintamayama
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On 23/07/2022 at 23:17, Nantonoyama said:

I am not worrying (anyways, I am P21, so not in contention for win), but it is a question worth asking. Even improbable, I'd like to know how ties can be broken (could be fewest ANTE bet)

 @Golynohana if it is not already written somewhere, I can volunteer to remove the dust out of the old set of rules before next basho, and make it public on your website

Thanks @Nantonoyama, that would be helpful. Just send me the rules and i will prepare a page for it.

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On 23/07/2022 at 21:25, Kaito said:

@Golynohana I'm still curious about the Odd Sumo yusho tiebreaker. I never lost interest really, but it somehow may be relevant to my bet choice again today.

@Kaito there is no tiebreaker. Only number of points count. So there's a chance for shared yusho. I think I could add ante spent as tibreaker.

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1 hour ago, Golynohana said:

@Kaito there is no tiebreaker. Only number of points count. So there's a chance for shared yusho. I think I could add ante spent as tibreaker.

My proposal then would be

  • 1st TB: Highest number of ANTE spent
  • 2nd TB: Highest single winning bet
  • 3rd TB: Most winning bets in this basho
  • 4th TB: Higher rank on the Banzuke

I'm sure we'll never ever need TB 3 & 4.

Ganzohnesushi

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2 minutes ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

My proposal then would be

  • 1st TB: Highest number of ANTE spent
  • 2nd TB: Highest single winning bet
  • 3rd TB: Most winning bets in this basho
  • 4th TB: Higher rank on the Banzuke

I'm sure we'll never ever need TB 3 & 4.

Ganzohnesushi

I agree with the order, but for point number one, I would say lowest number of ANTE spent, rather that highest.
OK, it is true that in case of a tie, if you have spent less, it means that you have won less in absolute value. But it also means that you have obtained the same result with a more frugal approach, which can be rewarded.

@Golynohana What do you think?

Also, it would only be for yusho purposes? Or for all other positions also?

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3 minutes ago, Nantonoyama said:

I agree with the order, but for point number one, I would say lowest number of ANTE spent, rather that highest.
OK, it is true that in case of a tie, if you have spent less, it means that you have won less in absolute value. But it also means that you have obtained the same result with a more frugal approach, which can be rewarded.

@Golynohana What do you think?

Also, it would only be for yusho purposes? Or for all other positions also?

Not such a bad idea, to take the lowest number of ANTE spent, as the absolute net win in this case is higher. I fully agree to that proposal.

TB to be used for Yusho decision only.

Ganzohnesushi

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8 minutes ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

Not such a bad idea, to take the lowest number of ANTE spent

you will be king of TB :-D

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16 minutes ago, Gernobono said:

you will be king of TB :-D

Do you really think I will ever be on top in this game?   ;-)

Ganzohnesushi

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