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Jejima

Guess Hokutofuji's Aite - July 2022 edition

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Announcing the July 2022 edition of Guess Kisenosato's Aite....

Guess Hokutofuji's Aite

All you have to do is guess M7W Hokutofuji's opponent each day, before the torikumi comes out. If you guess correctly, you get a shiroboshi. This is surprisingly more fun (or frustrating) and challenging than it should be. It also gets you to think a bit more about the 'inner-workings' of sumo.

Here is the current banzuke:-

Banzuke for July 2022

Gurowake (YOW 13-2)  Y1 
Sakura (Y1E 12-3) YO Reonito (YOE 12-3) 
Oshirokita (S1E 11-4) S1 Profomisakari (M1E 11-4)  
Hakuhonofan (K1E 9-5-1) K1 Jakusotsu (S1W 8-7)
WAKATAKE (M2W 9-5-1)M1 Seiyashi (M2E 8-7) 
Chartorenji (M4W 8-2-5)  M2  Jejima (M3E 7-8)
shimodahito (M1W 4-4-7)  M3  Ryoshishokunin (M3W 1-0-14)
The Kyokai (M4E 2-13)  M4 
 Sumo Spiffy (mz) 10-5

The rules are as follows:-
1. Guess M7W Hokutofuji's opponents on each day of the basho.
2. Entries need to be in before 11:30 am Japan time on the previous day, except for the days 1 and 2 entries which need to be in before 11:30 am Japan time on the Friday prior to the start of the basho. If it turns out that the daily toriukumi is printed before these times, then any entry proved to have come afterwards is not allowed for that day (so enter early to be safe).
3. Tie-breakers to decide the Yusho.... We look at the result of the day 15 prediction, then day 14, and so on back to day 1. If still a tie, then the highest ranked on the banzuke can claim the Yusho.
4. If M7W Hokutofuji goes kyujo during the basho, we switch to M7E Okinoumi (M8E Tochinoshin, then M8W Nishikigi kept further in reserve, if needed due to a mass spate of kyujos) for the days after his fusensho loss (I.e. we can still guess who gets the freebie). For the immediate day afterwards, (unless it is known very soon after the event), everyone will get a 'kyujo'.
5. Players that are leading the Yusho race (especially in the final few days of the basho), are requested / expected to get their picks in very early (before all the other players, if possible) - in order to avoid suspicions of 'tactical picking'.
6. If the kyokai changes the originally posted torikumi for any day (such as for a late kyujo), the first version released will be used for the purpose of this game. (Highlighted, so that I will remember it, unlike in a previous basho!)
7. 
If the sumo forum goes down for a long period of time, you may still make your picks to Jejima or Jakusotsu at the 'obvious' gmail addresses or by any other method. 

Special prizes (many thanks to Yaochoyama):

1. Outstanding performance (shukun-sho) - the one who correctly picks the aite the most consecutive days. You have to have a minimum of three to win this prize.

2. Fighting spirit (kanto-sho) - the one who limits their incorrect aite picks to the shortest number of consecutive days (literally the one whose longest losing streak is the shortest). Any losing streak of 5 or more days would disqualify you from this prize.

3. Technique (gino-sho) - the one who is best at making correct picks when no one, or hardly anyone else does. A point system is used as follows and you need at least 3 points to claim this prize:

3 points if you're the only win to make the correct pick
2 points if you're one of two to make the correct pick
1 point if you're one of three to make the correct pick

New players ((Order,order!)) are cordially invited to this game!

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I'm probably going to get this laughably wrong because I didn't cross check this against past basho (plus Takayasu's kyujo throws a wrench in the works), but based on the excellent first principles set forth by some of my senpai on the banzuke:

Day 1: Tochinoshin
Day 2: Tobizaru

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Posted (edited)

I just wrote out what the whole schedule should be for the first two days, so either I've got this figured out or I'm going to dent my desk with my forehead.

Day 1: Tochinoshin

Day 2: Tobizaru

Changing picks and showing my homework: I swapped one of the maegashira wrestlers out of the sanyaku fights for day 2 in my initial setup, which was an error, but also, truly, genuinely, for all the times I've stared at banzukes trying to figure the scheduling out, I just noticed for the first time that day 2 almost always has same-side matchups. The closer I look, the more I notice that the exceptions which were throwing me off seem largely due to avoiding inter-stable matchups and the knock-on effects from those changes.

Edited by Sumo Spiffy
dumb

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1. Tochinoshin

2. Tobizaru

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Assuming that Takyasu really sits out:

Day 1 - Tochinoshin
Day 2 - Nishikigi

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I don't like the train, but it must be.

Day 1 Tochinoshin
Day 2 Tobizaru

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If Takayasu is out wouldn't it be?

1. Tochinoshin

2. Nishikigi

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Now I know the last COVID informations I must jump from my first train to Jakusotsu's train.

Day 1 Tochinoshin 
Day 2 Nishikigi

BTW: All the very belated best to your birthday, Klaus!

  • Thanks 1

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I'm gonna laugh my ass off if I switched from the right answer to the wrong one.

I'm finishing up a video on how the banzuke works, but it's going to be a while before I can make one on the torikumi.

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1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I'm gonna laugh my ass off if I switched from the right answer to the wrong one.

I'm finishing up a video on how the banzuke works, but it's going to be a while before I can make one on the torikumi.

It would be interesting to see what people think the rest of the torikumi (as far down as Hokutofuji) looks like for the different guesses.

  • Like 1

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1. Tochinoshin

2. Nishikigi

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3. Nishikigi

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I can't even begin to tell you how mad I am for missing this gimmie, having been too sloppy doing the Sanyaku and filling the wrong gap for Abi with only one eye open. (Pullinghair...)

Gurowake (Y1e) 2-0
Reonito (YOw) 2-0
Oshirokita (S1e) 2-0
Hakuhonofan (K1e) 2-0
Seiyashi (M1w) 2-0
Sumo Spiffy (M4w) 2-0
Profomisakari (S1w) 1-1
Jakusotsu (K1w) 1-1
WAKATAKE (M1e) 1-1
Jejima (M2w) 1-1
Chartorenji (M2e) 0-0-2
shimodahito (M3e) 0-0-2
Ryoshishokunin (M3w) 0-0-2
The Kyokai (M4e) 0-2
Sakura (YOe) kosho

Hokutofuji's aites: 1. Tochinoshin, 2. Tobizaru

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Day 3 - Nishikigi

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late again... 3.nishikigi

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3. Nishikigi

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