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Jejima

Guess Hokutofuji's Aite - July 2022 edition

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The jump was no succes.
But this time will it be:

Day 3 Nishikigi

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Everybody was having a piece of cake, only Ryoshishokunin came too late to the party.

Gurowake (Y1e) 3-0
Reonito (YOw) 3-0
Oshirokita (S1e) 3-0
Hakuhonofan (K1e) 3-0
Seiyashi (M1w) 3-0
Sumo Spiffy (M4w) 3-0
Profomisakari (S1w) 2-1
Jakusotsu (K1w) 2-1
WAKATAKE (M1e) 2-1
Jejima (M2w) 2-1
shimodahito (M3e) 1-0-2
Chartorenji (M2e) 0-0-3
Ryoshishokunin (M3w) 0-0-3
The Kyokai (M4e) 0-3
Sakura (YOe) kosho

Hokutofuji's aites: 1. Tochinoshin, 2. Tobizaru, 3. Nishikigi

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4. Shimanoumi....?

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Also on board with 9. Shimanoumi.

I am going to be curious how the sanyaku bouts play out and if I got those right, because two of the ones that would normally occur (I believe) won't due to them being inter-stable matchups. So far I've done a trash job of solving for the low double-digit ranks with all the Isegahama rikishi that can't fight each other.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Also on board with 9. Shimanoumi.

I am going to be curious how the sanyaku bouts play out and if I got those right, because two of the ones that would normally occur (I believe) won't due to them being inter-stable matchups. So far I've done a trash job of solving for the low double-digit ranks with all the Isegahama rikishi that can't fight each other.

I've never seen a prediction for 6 days in advance.... and I believe you mean intra-stable matchups, not inter-stable matchups.

But yes, also on board for 4: Shimanoumi.

Edited by Seiyashi

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2 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I am going to be curious how the sanyaku bouts play out and if I got those right, because two of the ones that would normally occur (I believe) won't due to them being inter-stable matchups.

Only one, I think.

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1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

I've never seen a prediction for 6 days in advance.... and I believe you mean intra-stable matchups, not inter-stable matchups.

But yes, also on board for 4: Shimanoumi.

Yeah, intra-, not inter-. I'm an English teacher!

My runout had two, but it sounds like that was wrong. Could be due to doing half the lineup and then remembering to check for conflicts, though.

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Posted (edited)

I almost made a huge mistake overgeneralizing the even-day rule.  The answer is the same regardless.

4. Shimanoumi

Edited by Gurowake

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2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Only one, I think.

I see three sanyaku in the same heya as someone else in the top 16 competing, though two are far enough down the pipe (Day 13 or 14) that it's iffy at best to say that they'd definitely happen otherwise, but the heya affiliation is relevant to matchmaking if they decide to stick to the highest ranked opponents.  The answer of "two" only makes sense if considering just the top 16 on the banzuke. 

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2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I almost made a huge mistake overgeneralizing the even-day rule.  The answer is the same regardless.

4. Shimanoumi

I always regret it when I disagree with my fellow yokozuna, but my calculations keep coming out with:

4. Aoiyama

I look forward to @Gurowake's explanation as to where I went wrong.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Reonito said:

4. Aoiyama

I look forward to @Gurowake's explanation as to where I went wrong.

Well, I'll say that it's closer than I thought after looking at it again.  I at least thought about it and for a few minutes had submitted the same pick.  I actually don't know at this point after looking into it some more.  I really don't want to change it now after having my post quoted like that, so I'm sticking with it. 

Edited by Gurowake

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And now after having more time to actually do more research instead of going with my gut feeling about when the even day rule is put to use, I think Reonito's going to be right, but it's now after the deadline.

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1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

And now after having more time to actually do more research instead of going with my gut feeling about when the even day rule is put to use, I think Reonito's going to be right, but it's now after the deadline.

I basically completely misremembered what sort of situations they ignore the even day rule, as I can find a bunch of counterexamples in the past few years now that break what I thought they would do.  At very least, if they apply it now, it'll be pretty solidly established.

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14 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I basically completely misremembered what sort of situations they ignore the even day rule, as I can find a bunch of counterexamples in the past few years now that break what I thought they would do.  At very least, if they apply it now, it'll be pretty solidly established.

I came up with Shimanoumi initially, and then realized I hadn't fully applied the rule. I also went through Natsu Day 4, and there's one bout on there I don't understand the logic behind, so that concerns me.

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After looking at the full torikumi, I think Reonito was robbed! If there's any plausible reason why Aoiyama got Nishikigi instead of the obvious Hokutofuji, only Dai-Yokozuna Sakura may be able to see it.

Gurowake (Y1e) 4-0
Oshirokita (S1e) 4-0
Hakuhonofan (K1e) 4-0
Seiyashi (M1w) 4-0
Sumo Spiffy (M4w) 4-0
Reonito (YOw) 3-1
Jakusotsu (K1w) 3-1
WAKATAKE (M1e) 3-1
Jejima (M2w) 3-1
Profomisakari (S1w) 2-2
shimodahito (M3e) 2-0-2
Chartorenji (M2e) 0-0-4
Ryoshishokunin (M3w) 0-0-4
The Kyokai (M4e) 0-4
Sakura (YOe) kosho

Hokutofuji's aites: 1. Tochinoshin, 2. Tobizaru, 3. Nishikigi, 4. Shimanoumi

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