Ajigawa beya?

[Seiyashi 3,458]

A construction site with purpose "sumo heya" and Ajigawa/ex-Aminishiki's legal name, Suginomori Ryūji on it. So I guess it's official; we should be hearing of the formal permission to set up Ajigawa-beya sometime soon.

I guess that also makes it a bit of a cert that Terunofuji will be the next Isegahama oyakata.

[Akinomaki 34,922]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I guess that also makes it a bit of a cert that Terunofuji will be the next Isegahama oyakata.

If Isegahama reaches retirement age before Terunofuji retires and maybe in any case, I guess nephew Ajigawa will be the next shisho of the heya, merging it with his. But there was talk in a tabloid that Isegahama wants to make Terunofuji a riji and likely the head of the ichimon, in opposition to Magaki who should also aim for the riji post, so in the long run Terunofuji could be Isegahama some day.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Akinomaki

[Asapedroryu 181]

21 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

If Isegahama reaches retirement age before Terunofuji retires

Even if Teru retires today, won't he be able to get a 5 years toshiyori and wait for July 2025 to then assume Isegahama kabu? Or I'm missing something here?

[Gurowake 3,485]

26 minutes ago, Asapedroryu said:

Even if Teru retires today, won't he be able to get a 5 years toshiyori and wait for July 2025 to then assume Isegahama kabu? Or I'm missing something here?

He's talking about it the other way. If Ajigawa forms his own heya, but Terunofuji isn't retired and able to take over for Isegahama before the latter retires, they'll just have to merge into the heya that just branched out.  

There's also Takarafuji though, who might not have much left, though he would need a kabu of his own.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Gurowake

[Hankegami 282]

On 10/06/2022 at 19:55, Akinomaki said:

If Isegahama reaches retirement age before Terunofuji retires and maybe in any case, I guess nephew Ajigawa will be the next shisho of the heya, merging it with his. But there was talk in a tabloid that Isegahama wants to make Terunofuji a riji and likely the head of the ichimon, in opposition to Magaki who should also aim for the riji post, so in the long run Terunofuji could be Isegahama some day.

Isn't the whole idea of Terunofuji being still active by the time moto-Asahifuji reaches 65 a bit far-fetched? This will happen on 6 July 2025 (or at least both wikipedia and the sumo database list him as born in 1960, although Seiyashi listed him as 63 years old here), three full years from now. We always discuss whether Terunofuji's knees will allow him to stay active by 2023, but now everyone appears to believe he is going to last on the dohyo three more years. I think it is safe to assume he will be retired by then, probably long retired.

Back to the topic, the simple fact that moto-Aminishiki is building a new heya strongly suggests he will branch out from Isegahama unless he's actually building the new Isegahama-beya altogether. Since everybody always talked of Ajigawa as the next Isegahama, I guess that Terunofuji's promotion to Yokozuna changed plans. Isegahama started to think he'd better leave his heya to a Yokozuna and Ajigawa decided to branch out (hopefully in good terms). Also, Terunofuji became Yokozuna in 2021, extending his jun-toshiyori stay from 3 to 5 years, basically making him sure to remain in the NSK until Isegahama's retirement age in 2025.

[Koorifuu 466]

There's a lot of "what if" steps that need to fall a certain way for this to happen, but if Ajigawa does branch out, only for Isegahama to collapse and merge into its branch, and then moto-yokozuna shin-Isegahama branches out again... As yokozuna, Terunofuji should theoretically have it as easy as anyone to do that as swiftly as possible.

 

One added factor into the equation: if Terunofuji dodges intai for long enough so that moto-Asahifuji turns 65 in the meantime, the latter could safely go into sanyo (provided there's an available slot). Even if Terunofuji retired the following month, his 5-year Terunofuji-oyakata toshiyori would always cover that entire period.

This wouldn't of course apply if Terunofuji retires first, as it'd trigger his own 5-year lease earlier than Isegahama's so it'd also end earlier. Not sure how this affects 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Koorifuu

[Seiyashi 3,458]

2 hours ago, Hankegami said:

Seiyashi listed him as 63 years old here)

I rounded to make life easier (I was just doing mental arithmetic with year subtractions), so yes, your calculation is correct.

Just to play devil's advocate, it might well have been ex-Aminishiki that convinced Isegahama that he should let Terunofuji take over after all he's done to keep him in the sport. That said, opening a heya isn't an easy task, so it may have been that ex-Aminishiki has been planning this for a while. I don't know if the reports that ex-Aminishiki was going to take over as Isegahama were even accurate or just tabloidish hearsay in the first place.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Muhomatsu 147]

2 hours ago, Hankegami said:

Seiyashi listed him as 63 years old here)

A good rule of thumb is that anyone running for a Riji has to be able to serve out their full term (i.e. cannot turn 65 in the middle of their mandate).  Because of the two year term, you must be at most 62 to run and serve as Riji.

 

[Hankegami 282]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Just to play devil's advocate, it might well have been ex-Aminishiki that convinced Isegahama that he should let Terunofuji take over after all he's done to keep him in the sport. That said, opening a heya isn't an easy task, so it may have been that ex-Aminishiki has been planning this for a while. I don't know if the reports that ex-Aminishiki was going to take over as Isegahama were even accurate or just tabloidish hearsay in the first place.

I did not consider the considerable investment required for opening a heya. You are most likely right, it was a pre-planned move of sort. Perhaps we should follow the perspective successors Isegahama had over time. The first coming to mind is Harumafuji, Isegahama's first yokozuna pupil. No one would have been surprised if Isegahama would have eventually handed over the stable to him, considering that becoming a shisho is often a matter of rank and the next highest contenders were sekiwake (Aminishiki in primis). However, Harumafuji put himself out of the picture in 2017 and, aside from an injured ex-ozeki Terunofuji, the next most suitable successor was Aminishiki himself (especially considering he is Isegahama's first cousin once removed). Yet again, Terunofuji was promoted to Yokozuna in 2021 and there was again a two-ranks gap with the next highest ranked perspective successor.

Now, before then it would have been more likely for then-ozeki Terunofuji to branch out: he was just one rank higher than Aminishiki, and even worse was not a Suginomori - not back than. I wonder whether the original plans to build a new heya were Terunofuji's, considering he applied for Japanese citizenship - implying he was going to become an elder - already in 2019. However, this project was perhaps handed over to Ajigawa after July 2021. To this extent, the fact that Terunofuji took the Suginomori surname can now appear a de facto adoption so to compensate his taking over the stable over heir-apparent Ajigawa.

Of course, there is still a chance that Ajigawa is just building new quartiers for Isegahama stable. However, considering that Isegahama-oyakata will remain in charge for three other years it's odd that the works are made under Ajigawa's name. Also, the present stable was built in 2007, not that much time ago. Another thing is that Isegahama himself was originally Ajigawa-oyakata, but acquired the Isegahama kabu for prestige. It would be perfectly logical for him handing it over to a fellow Yokozuna. In short, everything about that construction site reeks of a new Ajigawa-beya.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Hankegami

[Seiyashi 3,458]

*Forum pooh-pooh warning* (can we add a new Winnie the Pooh emoji for this? XD)

I am wondering if there isn't another angle to this. The bit that is nagging at me is: right now, Isegahama-beya is pretty much a Suginomori family operation, with ex-Asōfuji helping with scouting back in the family's shusshin of Aomori. What sense does it make for Ajigawa to split off and, unless he truly intends to start from scratch, cannibalise to a certain unavoidable degree part of Isegahama's existing operation? 

I don't know how fast it takes to put together the backing and funds for building a heya, but I doubt it's a plan suddenly assembled when Terunofuji was promoted to yokozuna last year, and from what I've heard that signage has been up for a while (i.e. it wasn't just put up yesterday or summat). So it seems that Ajigawa may well have been planning this for quite a while. In my opinion the hint lies in the fact that Terunofuji had applied for citizenship long before his resurgence (because he got it just as he returned, so he must have applied for it during his fall or sometime thereabouts).

My guess is that Isegahama and Ajigawa may well have planned for Terunofuji to take over as Isegahama oyakata, even had he not managed to come back, as a sort of retirement plan of sorts, with the understanding that he would take that heya in name only - something like how old Mienoumi gave Musōyama the heya but Musashimaru the stock. So in that plan, Ajigawa would retain the Suginomori chassis of the operation, while Terunofuji got the prestige of the kanban kabu of the ichimon, as well as informal links to the new Ajigawa-beya. That would save Terunofuji the cost of having to open his own heya, as presumably the Suginomori family resources and backers are more than equal to the task of outfitting a new heya - don't forget ex-Asahifuji's father was a bigwig in the local sumo community in Aomori, so the roots certainly run deep there.

This would also tie in with the rumours that Isegahama asked Hakuhō to secure the Magaki kabu in case Terunofuji needed it, back when the rumours about abolishing the ichidai-toshiyori were bounding about. Probably Isegahama sold the idea to Hakuhō as insurance for his own future as well, but now that Hakuhō needs the Magaki kabu for himself, Isegahama and Ajigawa need to clear a full kabu for Terunofuji without one being immediately available. So even if Terunofuji gets the Isegahama kabu on Isegahama reaching mandatory retirement age, ex-Asahifuji can still stay involved in an informal, family capacity at Ajigawa as opposed to being stuck "sanyo-like" but without a kabu in Terunofuji's Isegahama.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Hankegami 282]

13 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

This would also tie in with the rumours that Isegahama asked Hakuhō to secure the Magaki kabu in case Terunofuji needed it, back when the rumours about abolishing the ichidai-toshiyori were bounding about. Probably Isegahama sold the idea to Hakuhō as insurance for his own future as well, but now that Hakuhō needs the Magaki kabu for himself, Isegahama and Ajigawa need to clear a full kabu for Terunofuji without one being immediately available. So even if Terunofuji gets the Isegahama kabu on Isegahama reaching mandatory retirement age, ex-Asahifuji can still stay involved in an informal, family capacity at Ajigawa as opposed to being stuck "sanyo-like" but without a kabu in Terunofuji's Isegahama.

Perhaps you got the key. We must also think about Takarafuji, who will need a kabu of his own quite soon. If Isegahama renounces to be a sanyo but keeps feet in both Isegahama-beya and Ajigawa-beya, he also eliminates the problem to look for an extra kabu for his sanyo years. Now, if Miyagino renounces to his own sanyo option perhaps the Magaki kabu could become available for Takarafuji very soon.

By the way, I have the feeling the NSK will regret having put up this sanyo thing. They are basically making things for retired rikishi even more difficult. Not to mention they also eliminated jun-toshiyori for ranks below ozeki. If it was yet another move to limit presence of foreigners in sumo, it is backfiring royally.

[Raishu 193]

1 hour ago, Hankegami said:

[...]We must also think about Takarafuji, who will need a kabu of his own quite soon.[...]

Just on a quick side note:

On my sheets, I have Takarafuji linked with the Kiriyama stock - currently used by Asahisho on loan. The share itself has had its links with the old and new Isegahama stable, so I would assume that Takarafuji's future can be divided from the current Ajigawa/Isegahma situation. 

[Asashosakari 16,848]

4 hours ago, Hankegami said:

By the way, I have the feeling the NSK will regret having put up this sanyo thing. They are basically making things for retired rikishi even more difficult. Not to mention they also eliminated jun-toshiyori for ranks below ozeki. If it was yet another move to limit presence of foreigners in sumo, it is backfiring royally.

Considering the sanyo system now already exists unchanged for about as long as the jun-toshitori system did altogether through two iterations, I daresay they're probably fine with how it's working. 

[Yubinhaad 10,610]

According to the unredacted construction plan, Ajigawa-beya will be in the Ishijima district of Koto-ku, Tokyo.

I assume the intention is for the heya to be independent from next year's Natsu basho, since the scheduled completion date is April 30th 2023. Although I guess it's possible that the branch out could take place ahead of the Haru basho, if they can get/already have Osaka lodgings lined up.