Obligatory health and safety warning: This is going to be perhaps some of the longest form writing committed to a forum page. Read at your own time and peril.
Contents
1. Introduction
Natsu 2022 saw a really insipid performance from the ōzeki trio of Takakeishō, Shōdai, and Mitakeumi. Takakeishō very narrowly avoided kadoban, while Shōdai and Mitakeumi didn't; the former for the fourth time in his short ōzeki career. A bad performance once in a while might be excusable, but when two ōzeki going kadoban is already relatively uncommon (52 occurrences since 1949, when honbasho finally stayed at 15 days), the fact that two ōzeki have gone kadoban in 10 basho since 2017 is some cause for concern. In other words, 20% of the instances of two or more ōzeki going kadoban within the last 70-odd years happened within the last 5 years, which seems disproportionate, to say the least.
Handwringing about bad ōzeki performances is nothing new either - Gōeidō and Kotoshōgiku were (in)famously called the "kadoban twins" on Tachiai - but it's rarely been combined with detailed background analysis of the topic. One notable exception was in Haru 2021, when it looked like Takakeishō and Shōdai were at risk of kadoban on day 10; @Amamaniac and @Godango put in some solid work there to provide some stats and numbers on ōzeki performance or lack thereof, with other forum members chipping in. After Natsu 2022, @Yamanashi made the further observation about Kisenosato as either "the perfect ōzeki", or a potential yokozuna who could never "pull the string", which saw the following analysis from me and a request from @Gurowake to extend it further to an ōzeki's yūshō honour strike rate during his tenure. Serendipitously, @nagorastarted a thread a few days after Natsu 2022 on a rating system of their own design, which adds a further methodological arrow to the quiver in terms of analysing ōzeki performance.
After spelunking in a few rabbit holes, I'm proud to present what is probably the most comprehensive analysis of ōzeki performance to date. I should probably disclaim up front that I don't claim that this is the alpha and omega of such analysis, or that this is the final word on ōzeki performance. There are qualitative aspects of ōzeki performance that the following analysis does not capture, and there is at least one that I've had my eye on but decided to save for a future time. This is meant as a springboard to reflect on and possibly challenge various perspectives and narratives on ōzeki performance, and should be read in combination with the Forum's collective institutional memory on ōzeki as they were in their time, but it is hopefully the most thorough and least anecdotal springboard for a while yet.
This study encompasses all rikishi who have reached the rank of ōzeki since the rules for ōzeki demotion were changed in Nagoya 1969 to the current kadoban system, meaning that all yokozuna since Wajima (ōzeki promotion Kyūshū 1972) and all ōzeki since Kiyokuni (promoted Nagoya 1969) are included in this study. The kōshō system throws a bit of a wrench in this, but nothing that fundamentally invalidates the analysis. Also, definitionally, a zenkyu (0-0-15) will be considered the same as a make-koshi; only an actual kachi-koshi will be considered. There is room for debate about this, but I'll defend that by saying that an injured ōzeki is about as bad as an abunai ōzeki in the court of public opinion.
Naturally, SumoDB is the source of data for this project, although all transcription and scraping errors are mine - do feel free to point those out as and when you see them.
Due to its length, I'm posting this in 6 parts for safety's sake. If you see this while the rest of the posts are not up, bear with me for a bit. Also, I notice that some of the more voluminous tables are technically spilling over the borders of the post; I will reformat at a later date to deal with that but let me know if this is causing readability issues in the meantime (almost certainly on mobile, sorry!).
EDIT: And all posts are done - let fire!
2. Overview of ōzeki
Yokozuna
General
W/L
Kyujō/Kadoban
Honours
Ōzeki
General
W/L
Kyujō/Kadoban
Honours
PA
ŌB
KK
MK
%
KJ
%
KB
%
JY
DT
YS
%
PA
ŌB
KK
MK
%
KJ
%
KB
%
JY
DT
YS
%
Terunofuji*
24
16
10
6
62.5
3
18.8
5
31.3
2
2
1
31.3
Mitakeumi
30
2
1
1
50.0
0
0.0
1
50.0
0
0
0
0.0
Kisenosato
26
31
30
1
96.8
0
0.0
1
3.2
11
0
1
38.7
Shōdai
29
10
6
4
60.0
1
10.0
4
40.0
1
0
0
10.0
Kakuryū
27
12
12
0
100.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
1
1
16.7
Asanoyama
26
7
4
3
57.1
3
42.9
2
28.6
2
0
0
28.6
Harumafuji
25
22
21
1
95.5
1
4.5
1
4.5
0
0
4
18.2
Takakeishō*^
23
17
11
6
64.7
6
35.3
5
29.4
2
1
1
23.5
Hakuhō
21
7
6
1
85.7
1
14.3
1
14.3
1
0
3
57.1
Tochinoshin*^
31
7
2
5
28.6
3
42.9
3
42.9
0
0
0
0.0
Asashōryū
22
3
3
0
100.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0
2
66.7
Takayasu
27
15
11
4
73.3
5
33.3
3
20.0
3
0
0
20.0
Musashimaru
23
32
32
0
100.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
5
3
5
40.6
Gōeidō
28
33
23
10
69.7
7
21.2
9
27.3
1
1
1
9.1
Wakanohana III
22
29
24
5
82.8
5
17.2
3
10.3
4
1
4
31.0
Kotoshogiku
27
32
24
8
75.0
3
9.4
7
21.9
1
0
1
6.3
Takanohana II
21
11
10
1
90.9
0
0.0
1
9.1
2
1
5
72.7
Baruto
26
15
13
2
86.7
2
13.3
1
6.7
0
0
1
6.7
Akebono
23
4
3
1
75.0
1
25.0
1
25.0
0
0
2
50.0
Kotomitsuki
31
17
15
2
88.2
2
11.8
2
11.8
1
0
0
5.9
Asahifuji
27
17
17
0
100.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
4
2
3
52.9
Kotoōshū
23
47
39
8
83.0
8
17.0
7
14.9
1
0
1
4.3
Ōnokuni
23
13
13
0
100.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
4
0
1
38.5
Tochiazuma*^
26
30
20
10
66.7
11
36.7
8
26.7
1
0
3
13.3
Hokutoumi
23
5
5
0
100.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
2
0
1
60.0
Kaiō
28
65
50
15
76.9
14
21.5
13
20.0
7
0
4
16.9
Futahaguro
23
4
4
0
100.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
1
1
0
50.0
Miyabiyama
23
8
4
4
50.0
1
12.5
3
37.5
0
0
0
0.0
Takanosato
30
9
9
0
100.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
3
0
2
55.6
Musōyama*^
28
27
19
8
70.4
7
25.9
6
22.2
1
0
0
3.7
Chiyonofuji
26
3
3
0
100.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
2
0
1
100.0
Dejima
25
12
9
3
75.0
1
8.3
2
16.7
0
0
0
0.0
Mienoumi*^
28
21
17
4
81.0
2
9.5
3
14.3
1
1
0
9.5
Chiyotaikai
23
65
46
19
70.8
13
20.0
14
21.5
6
1
2
13.8
Wakanohana II
24
8
8
0
100.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
1
2
1
50.0
Takanonami*^
23
37
30
7
81.1
1
2.7
4
10.8
5
2
2
24.3
Kitanoumi
21
3
3
0
100.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
1
1
66.7
Kirishima
31
16
11
5
68.8
4
25.0
4
25.0
4
0
1
31.3
Wajima
24
4
4
0
100.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
3
0
1
100.0
Konishiki
24
39
31
8
79.5
4
10.3
7
17.9
2
2
3
17.9
Hokutenyū
23
44
38
6
86.4
4
9.1
5
11.4
3
0
1
9.1
Asashio
28
36
31
5
86.1
4
11.1
4
11.1
0
0
1
2.8
Wakashimazu
26
28
22
6
78.6
3
10.7
5
17.9
3
0
2
17.9
Kotokaze
24
22
20
2
90.9
1
4.5
1
4.5
1
0
1
9.1
Masuiyama
32
7
4
3
57.1
1
14.3
3
42.9
0
0
0
0.0
Asahikuni
29
21
17
4
81.0
3
14.3
4
19.0
1
0
0
4.8
Kaiketsu*
23
9
5
4
55.6
0
0.0
2
22.2
1
0
0
11.1
Daiju
23
5
2
3
40.0
2
40.0
2
40.0
0
0
0
0.0
Takanohana
22
50
44
6
88.0
4
8.0
5
10.0
2
0
2
8.0
Daikirin
28
25
19
6
76.0
4
16.0
6
24.0
2
0
0
8.0
Maenoyama
25
10
7
3
70.0
3
30.0
2
20.0
0
0
0
0.0
Kiyokuni
28
28
23
5
82.1
4
14.3
5
17.9
3
0
1
14.3
Max
30.0
32.0
32.0
6.0
100.0
5.0
25.0
5.0
31.3
11.0
3.0
5.0
100.0
Max
32.0
65.0
50.0
19.0
90.9
14.0
42.9
14.0
50.0
7.0
2.0
4.0
31.3
Mean
24.2
12.7
11.7
1.0
93.5
0.7
4.5
0.8
5.6
2.3
0.8
2.0
50.3
Mean
26.3
24.6
18.8
5.8
70.8
4.0
17.9
4.7
22.9
1.7
0.2
0.9
10.0
SD
2.4
9.5
8.9
1.8
10.4
1.3
7.7
1.3
9.0
2.5
0.9
1.5
23.5
SD
2.9
16.6
13.7
3.7
14.6
3.4
12.1
3.1
11.1
1.8
0.5
1.1
8.7
Median
23.5
10.0
9.5
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.5
1.0
50.0
Median
26.0
21.5
18.0
5.0
74.2
3.0
14.3
4.0
20.8
1.0
0.0
1.0
8.5
Min
21.0
3.0
3.0
0.0
62.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
9.5
Min
22.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
28.6
0.0
0.0
1.0
4.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
PA
ŌB
KK
MK
%
KJ
%
KB
%
JY
DT
YS
%
PA
ŌB
KK
MK
%
KJ
%
KB
%
JY
DT
YS
%
General
W/L
Kyujō/Kadoban
Honours
General
W/L
Kyujō/Kadoban
Honours
Legend:
PA - Promotion Age
ŌB - Ōzeki basho
* - denotes ōzeki who held the rank over two or more disjunct periods
^ - denotes demoted ōzeki who immediately re-earned promotion with 10 wins at sekiwake
This set of tables provides a high-level overview of ōzeki performance before we dive into the details.
Promotion age
In general, rikishi who peak at yokozuna are promoted to ōzeki earlier than those who peak at ōzeki. This makes sense, since rikishi with the eventual ability to reach yokozuna should find ōzeki promotion easier than rikishi who cap out at ōzeki. Most yokozuna are promoted to ōzeki slightly under the age of 24, although we have a large outlier in Takanosato, with Mienoumi not far behind - neither eventually amounted to much as yokozuna, although Takanosato had a relatively good showing as an ōzeki. Also unsurprisingly, there is a good overlap between the youngest promotees to ōzeki and the ichidai-class yokozuna; the only discrepancies are Wakanohana III, promoted at the same age as Asashōryū but who remains one of two yokozuna never to win a yūshō as yokozuna, and Chiyonofuji, who was promoted to ōzeki remarkably late but wasted no time getting to yokozuna and down to business.
The list of ōzeki is a bit more varied here, with the recent collegiate trio of Mitakeumi, Shōdai and Asanoyama pushing up the average. Nonetheless, most ōzeki are promoted around the age of 26, with a bit more variance compared to the yokozuna. The youngest ōzeki promotees are a bit more of a mixed bunch relative to their yokozuna counterparts, though. You have Takanohana I who was fondly remembered as a strong ōzeki, you have Takanonami, Chiyotaikai and Kotoōshū, some of the longer serving ōzeki of the 90s and 00s, and you also have Takakeishō, whose youth is often forgotten considering how long he feels like he's been a makuuchi fixture. But on the other hand, you have Daiju, infamous for the shortest ōzeki tenure, Kaiketsu, more notable for being the first person to be repromoted to ōzeki the hard way than for anything done during his tenure, and Miyabiyama, who infamously failed to earn repromotion the hard way.
Flipping it around, it's probably not surprising that the older ōzeki promotees probably reached it more as an achievement, pinnacle rank as a final hurrah at the end of their careers. That probably aptly describes Kotomitsuki, Tochinoshi, and Masuiyama, although Kirishima alone of those four proved to be surprisingly decent at the rank (more on that later).
Ōzeki basho
The ōzeki tenure of rikishi who reach yokozuna can be roughly split into two camps; those who make it there in a hurry and those who don't. That's sort of exemplified by a slightly disparate mean vs median; the median basho spent at ōzeki is 10, but Kisenosato and Musashimaru, "languishing" at ōzeki for more than 30 basho, massively drive up the average relative to the rest of their peers (Wakanohana III is a close third). That same distribution pattern shows up in the list of ōzeki, with a couple of outliers driving up the mean relative to the median (looking at you, Chiyotaikai and Kaiō).
KK/MK percentages (KK/(KK+MK))
This is where the yokozuna really distinguish themselves relative to those who remain at ōzeki. Of the 20 yokozuna covered, 12 preserved a perfect 100% KK record while at ōzeki, and 5 only committed one MK, with 2 7-8s and 3 kyujos (so no howler double-digit MKs). The three exceptions are Mienoumi, who had such a bad initial tenure at ōzeki that he wanted to retire, Wakanohana III, who spent the longer part of his career as an ōzeki, and Terunofuji, whose injury-plagued initial tenure was outdone only by the speed of his reascent. The stats bear this out; the median KK percentage is 100%, with a mean of 93.5%.
The ōzeki corps, on the other hand, are a much more mixed bag, running the whole gamut from 28% KK to 90% KK, with means and medians around 70%. That sort of implies that your average ōzeki will be kadoban a quarter of the time during his tenure as an ōzeki, which is a useful stat to keep in mind. It's probably no coincidence that the worst howlers belong to Daiju and Tochinoshin, the two shortest-lived ōzeki (although Tochinoshin managed to re-earn the rank only to lose it immediately). On the other hand, the best scorer is Kotokaze, followed by Kotomitsuki and Takanohana I with a motley crew of 3 more at 86% chasing them.
Kyujō/Kadoban ((KJ or KB)/ŌB)
The KK/MK percentages might be slightly muddled up by the fact that in my methodology, going kyujō counts as an MK. That is slightly disambiguated by this next bunch of stats, where logically the number of MK actually committed over 15 days should be MK - KJ: so for instance, Terunofuji has committed 3 actual MK. This might vary a bit as some rikishi have gone kyujō with a KK, but it does help somewhat at this stage. However, there is an additional confounding factor in the form of the kōshō seidō or public injury system; a partial kyujō followed by a zenkyu counts as 2 MK/kyujō but really forms part of the same "injury incidence", if you will; the actual number of times going kadoban therefore helps disambiguate this too.
Again, no surprise that the three MK yokozuna stars lead the kyujō stakes here, although that was perhaps to be expected on the weight of the numbers. The ōzeki corps are again a lot more varied, with Asanoyama making a surprise appearance in the kyujō rankings on par with Tochinoshin, and Kaiketsu being the only ōzeki who never went kyujō (Mitakeumi, being only 2 basho old as an ōzeki, doesn't count for obvious reasons related to sample size). The mean and median for kadoban basho for ōzeki is around 20%, which sort of bears out the intuition earlier that an ōzeki will be kadoban about a quarter of the time. Again discounting Mitakeumi, the kadoban stars are Tochinoshin and Masuiyama, with Daiju and Shōdai coming in third. Surprisingly, while the kadoban twins of Gōeidō and Kotoshōgiku did go kadoban fairly frequently, all(!) the modern ozeki from Takakeishō onward beat them out in kadoban frequency to an extent not seen since Masuiyama, Daiju, and Miyabiyama! Perhaps that's what's driving a lot of the crabbing about the current ōzeki, especially considering they've had relatively shorter than average tenures so far.
Honours ((Y+D+J)/ŌB)
The previous section might have covered the lows of an ōzeki tenure that they might be lambasted for, but this next section would be the highs which ōzeki are expected to achieve in the absence of yokozuna. In general, the yokozuna all do pretty well with the possible exceptions of Mienoumi, Kakuryū, and Harumafuji, who achieved a yūshō honour of some sort only about 10-15% of the time during their tenure at ōzeki; Kakuryū is arguably the most "efficient" as his two honours are also the ones that got him promoted in the first place. Special mention must go to Chiyonofuji and Wajima, who during their short ōzeki tenures clocked a yūshō honour in every basho. In contrast, where the worst yokozuna as ōzeki only clocked an honour 10-15% of the time, that's unfortunately still better than the average ōzeki, who clocked a yūshō honour only about 10% of the time. Funnily enough, Shodai is bang on average. That's probably because there are a number of ōzeki who "burnt out" reaching the rank and never quite recaptured the same form; notable obvious examples would be Tochinoshin (again), Daiju (again), Dejima, Miyabiyama, Masuiyama, and Maenoyama (more on him later).
Somewhat surprisingly, the "legendary" ōzeki pair of Kaiō and Chiyotaikai only achieved an honour about 13-15% of the time, on par with Kakuryū and Harumafuji's strike rates, although obviously spread out over a much longer career. The honourable mentions here are Kirishima, Asanoyama, Takanonami, and Takakeishō; while Kirishima, Asanoyama, and Takakeishō could be said to have benefitted from sengoku periods, Takanonami achieved his during the heyday of his more illustrious stablemate Takanohana II. That said, the infamous Fujishima-Futagoyama dominance of that period might have helped Takanonami avoid a number of the stronger wrestlers, which would have naturally helped him run up the score a bit. So I'm not sure it's a good thing that the top four all have some sort of a question mark next to their honour records.
Naturally, it has to be some kind of cosmic joke that the fifth best ōzeki after the aforementioned is Takayasu, and who is still continuing to run up his tally of jun-yūshō in the maegashira ranks.