Aki 2022 discussion (results)

[Swami 245]

23 minutes ago, Benihana said:

All Ozeki lose, Ura snatches his second kinboshi and we had monoii en masse, oh beautiful day :)

3 kinboshi after 6 days is bad, almost abysmal. Not looking good for Terunofuji, i expect some serious pressure after the basho, regarding his further career.

I think it is very likely Terunofuji has won his final yusho in May.  Even at this stage if he withdraws this time, the next time he competes it will have to be good.  Too many rikishi - Tamawashi, Daieisho, now Ura are getting the better of him and as times passes his knees are not going to get much better.

At the same time, Hakuho and Kakuryu both blatantly kept on withdrawing indefinitely and only got a couple of half-hearted warnings before finally retiring. so I wouldn't be surprised if Terunofuji tries to buy a bit more time.

Swami

[Jakusotsu 5,815]

2 minutes ago, Swami said:

At the same time, Hakuho and Kakuryu both blatantly kept on withdrawing indefinitely and only got a couple of half-hearted warnings before finally retiring. so I wouldn't be surprised if Terunofuji tries to buy a bit more time.

On the other hand, Isegahama might not be given as much leniency as Michinoku and Miyagino.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

I’m a little puzzled by talk of him being pressured into retirement. He managed a perfectly respectable 11-4 last basho, off the back of a 13-2 yusho. He’s dropped out of only one tournament so far (possibly two now) and managed 11-15 wins in the five basho he has completed at the rank. This is nowhere near bad enough to force him out or place any sort of mandatory benchmark on him for November to save his career. Usually we’re saying how even not at his best he’s still the best in the ring. He’s spent a full year at the rank and has averaged 11 wins a basho even with that withdrawal. Without the withdrawal counted, it’s 12.6 wins a basho. Perfectly good.

Edit: It was a 12-3 yusho, not 13-2, which slightly alters the averages but not by much.

Edited September 16, 2022 by Eikokurai

[Jakusotsu 5,815]

...and for the third(!) time in a row, no Sanyaku has more than 4 wins after day 6.

Pathetic.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

6 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

I’m a little puzzled by talk of him being pressured into retirement. He managed a perfectly respectable 11-4 last basho, off the back of a 13-2 yusho. He’s dropped out of only one tournament so far (possibly two now) and manager 11-15 wins in the five basho he has completed at the rank. This is nowhere near bad enough to force him out.

To add to this, even if he does retire in a manner that appears precipitous, it's more likely he and Isegahama know he's finally reached the end of the physical line, and knowing the two of them that's not a conclusion they'll arrive at hastily. Also, I think he actually gets more understanding from the NSK and the YDC, seeing as his medical history is much more well-known compared to Hakuhō and Kakuryū, he probably has a lot of goodwill from his comeback story and very successful yokozuna debut, he's also the only yokozuna they have with no candidate on the horizon, and everyone knew he wasn't exactly pristine goods when they promoted him. It won't extend to 8 kyūjō I don't think, but the noises should be a lot less rude.

Edited September 16, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Leoben 121]

After reading the discussion around Tamawashi's multiple kinboshi yesterday, I'm picturing the leaders of the kyokai gathered in a smokey room banging on the table and complaining 

That Terunofuji! he's gonna bankrupt us! Handin' out kinboshi like they're candy!

Edited September 16, 2022 by Leoben

[Hankegami 412]

After Day 6, things are slowly shaping out.

The big news is of course Terunofuji clearly suffering from his busted knees. Considering that he appears now unable to counter a simple charge, forget winning against Ichinojo tomorrow, he could suffer a MK. I would not be surprised if he pulls himself out for Day 7. He followed a closely similar pattern in Haru, after all (3-3-9). Anyway, I do not believe he will be talked about intai - not now. However, he will be expected to give a very good performance in Kyushu. Will he give another murky performance or, even worse, going kyujo mid-race again, well, here we go. Terunofuji is not Kisenosato (nor Hakuho or Kakuryu, for what matters), who could always hope to get back in shape eventually. Everyone knows his knees will definitively give up one day, and the question is just when. Were the YDC persuaded he reached his limit, I believe he will receive much less tolerance than his direct predecessor at the highest rank.

Now, allow me to unload my sumo fan side and talk about the basho and the front-runners. Tamawashi has already faced much of the san'yaku (tomorrow vs. Wakatakakage) and is clearly the favorite at this point. I had however the impression - from previous bashos - he is sometimes prone to lose against unremarkable opponents. I'd say that his true test will start on the second week when he will likely be paired against fellow upper maegashira (especially Hokutofuji, Takayasu, and Wakamotoharu). On the other hand, Hokutofuji is on a wind but has yet to face noteworthy opponents (tomorrow his match vs. Takanosho will be likely his hardest thus far). For him, his test will start as he gets upper rankers.

For all these reasons, I would not forget about the runner-ups. Of all of them, Takayasu is absolutely the most determined (see also his short interview with Hiro Morita on Sumo Prime Time). He stupidly lost to Ura on Day 2 but, luckily for Papa Bear, very few rikishi are as unpredictable as the pink guy. Tomorrow he will face Endo (13-9 for Takayasu, the last thirteen being 10-3) and is expected to get 6-1 and continue his run. The other two, Wakamotoharu and Oho, bear somewhat lower expectations. Wakamotoharu is much a 9-6 guy like his brother in an average basho, so we can expect him to lose some other bout. There are anyway good chances he will get 10+ this time around, which could buy him his first sansho prize. And as for Oho, well... I just cannot forget his Hatsu basho.

Third come the underdogs. Well, calling Takakeisho an underdog is sketchy, but he surely damaged his yusho run today. Anyway, the Hamster is always looking forward for a rope run so I doubt he will relent just now. Tomorrow he will face Ura, an easy match... on paper. Yotsu-zumo experts Kiribayama and Hoshoryu have always failed to win over certain crucial opponents, but never say never. I cannot see other potential yusho winners beyond them. Takanosho is pretty much under-ranked, and the 3-3 bunch appears more projected towards a KK than a yusho run.

(Sorry for my lengthy comment, by the way. I couldn't participate throughout the week and I couldn't restrain myself today)

[Seiyashi 4,071]

14 minutes ago, Leoben said:

After reading the discussion around Tamawashi's multiple kinboshi yesterday, I'm picturing the leaders of the kyokai gathered in a smokey room banging on the table and complaining 

That Terunofuji! he's gonna bankrupt us! Handin' out kinboshi like they're candy!

Their golden boy Kisenosato still gave out 18, 7 more than Terunofuji, with a lot less yūshō to show for it.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

6 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

I had however the impression - from previous bashos - he is sometimes prone to lose against unremarkable opponents.

More like he tends to run out of steam on the second week. Someone pointed out a page or two back that he was 53-29 in week 1 and 29-53 in week 2. I see that more as a natural function of his age. But yes, for that reason I agree he's not exactly a yūshō frontrunner, yet.

If Terunofuji pulls out, more likely than not we'll have a repeat of some of the messier arasoi we've seen in previous basho.

[RabidJohn 1,665]

It's true that Wacky Aki is not going Terunofuji's way at all so far, but 3 kinboshi hardly spells imminent intai. He's got a long way to go before he gets anywhere near Harumafuji's tally.
He could sit out from tomorrow and not come back until Hatsu 23, and all the YDC would say is we hope he can come back strongly.
I'm not denying that his knees are going to be the end of him, preventing him from ever giving away as many kinboshi as Harumafuji, but even if this is the beginning of the end, I doubt we'll see an intai announcement before Aki 23.

Anyway, congratulations to the loveably unconventional Ura on gold star no. 2.

Ozeki dropping like flies, too, though the only 1 who really disappointed me today was Shodai, who just gave up at the edge.

I particularly enjoyed Tobizaru's win over Hoshoryu today. He could've been up for a shukun-sho if Tamawashi wasn't also doing so damn well. I have to say, I'm warming to the idea of the decidedly-not-wily veteran clinching another yusho.

[Leoben 121]

4 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Their golden boy Kisenosato still gave out 18, 7 more than Terunofuji, with a lot less yūshō to show for it.

Wow, did not know this. 

[Seiyashi 4,071]

16 minutes ago, Leoben said:

21 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Their golden boy Kisenosato still gave out 18, 7 more than Terunofuji, with a lot less yūshō to show for it.

Wow, did not know this. 

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&group_expand=on&group_by=rikishi1&shikona1=Terunofuji, Kisenosato&rank1=y&onlyl1=on&rank2=m&sort_by=kimarite'

18 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

but 3 kinboshi hardly spells imminent intai

Agreed.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&group_by=basho&group_by2=rikishi1&rank1=y&onlyl1=on&rank2=m

The worst record in recent years is, unsurprisingly, Kisenosato with 5 in a single basho (the last loss was fusen). Musashimaru ties him also with 5, and Asashōryū with 4, so 3 kinboshi isn't that bad yet. Even the great Taihō did it at least once as well, and there are a lot of yokozuna with 3 kinboshi given in a single basho.

I hope Terunofuji takes the hint and goes kyūjō for his health and that of the Kyokai's finances, though.

Edited September 16, 2022 by Seiyashi

[junsan 170]

Teru needs healing. Needs to kyujo Aki asap and also sit out Kyushu.

[dingo 1,160]

13 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Who's the last rikishi to be hyped on here that actually made good on their potential in a timely and efficient fashion? 

Asanoyama perhaps? 

Edit: and also Takakeisho I guess. 

Edited September 16, 2022 by dingo

[Kintamayama 44,354]

16 years since all Y/O lost on the same day. Last time was Aki 2006 with Asashouryuu, Hakuhou, Chiyotaikai, KaioU, Kotooushuu and Tochiazuma all losing on day.. 6. 

Edited September 16, 2022 by Kintamayama

[Leoben 121]

33 minutes ago, dingo said:

Asanoyama perhaps? 

Edit: and also Takakeisho I guess. 

For comparison, Takakeisho took 14 tournaments from his makuuchi debut to make Ozeki, and Asanoyama took 16.

Hoshoryu debuted in Aki 2020 so this will be his 13th tournament in the top division. He could equal Takakeisho if he goes for double digits in this basho and the next one and he gets a JY or better in one of them (unlikely imo), and he has an OK shot at matching Asanoyama. But even if he doesn't, he's still just 23 and it doesn't feel like he's reached his ceiling yet.

Edited September 16, 2022 by Leoben

[Gurowake 3,922]

Don't count Terunofuji completely out yet.  Harumafuji once started 2-3 and gave out 4 kinboshi and won the Yusho.  There's no one that's likely to dominate the competition that's out in the lead.  Tamawashi certainly has the best prospects with only Mitakeumi among the upper sanyaku left, but the parity at the top of the banzuke means the upper sanyaku bouts really aren't that much harder than the lower sanyaku or upper maegashira.

[dingo 1,160]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Their golden boy Kisenosato still gave out 18, 7 more than Terunofuji, with a lot less yūshō to show for it.

I'd say the circumstances of Kisenosato's kinboshi were different from Terunofuji's, but that's just my opinion. 

Edit: spelling

Edited September 16, 2022 by dingo

[Seiyashi 4,071]

12 minutes ago, dingo said:

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Their golden boy Kisenosato still gave out 18, 7 more than Terunofuji, with a lot less yūshō to show for it.

I'd say the circumstances of Kisenosato's kinboshi were different from Terunofuji's, but that's just my opinion. 

Edit: spelling

They definitely were, and I'd fully agree that Kisenosato shouldn't be entirely hauled up for those kinboshi. But then it stinks of hypocrisy to get on a 7-yūshō yokozuna's case about 3 kinboshi in a basho when Kisenosato basically was done as a rikishi after his second yūshō and continued wrestling, oblivious to that fact. But then again, it's the NSK/YDC; I wouldn't be too surprised if someone too thick to be sympathetic did make those noises.

It's basically a roundabout way of saying that yes, 3 kinboshi is a bit embarrassing, but in and of themselves shouldn't be cause for laying into Terunofuji. The greater concern is his health, since his undercarriage doesn't seem to be working at all this basho.

[Old Shatterhand is dead 29]

I've been following sumo since 1996, (I still give thanks to Eurosport and dear Sid!) with a few minor hiatuses, but I've never seen such a weak field...
We have a kripli yokozuna and three ozeki, which, if we were to mix them together, would make half a Chiyotaikai or half a Kaio...
I am pretty much sad to see this downgrading of my beloved sport.

Nowadays I rather watch the lower juryo youngsters they might give some hope.

[Chartorenji 235]

4 hours ago, Leoben said:

For comparison, Takakeisho took 14 tournaments from his makuuchi debut to make Ozeki, and Asanoyama took 16.

Hoshoryu debuted in Aki 2020 so this will be his 13th tournament in the top division. He could equal Takakeisho if he goes for double digits in this basho and the next one and he gets a JY or better in one of them (unlikely imo), and he has an OK shot at matching Asanoyama. But even if he doesn't, he's still just 23 and it doesn't feel like he's reached his ceiling yet.

feel like Hoshoryu is JSA/YDC's "please make the rank soonish" so they can have a somewhat long reigning Yokozuna. But again, that's a minimum of 4 basho from now, probably even longer. Mitakeumi would be the other one I can see making it but even then it comes down to injury luck and how much he wants it momentum wise. Shodai can't keep momentum for the life of him, Takakeisho can't stay healthy, and everyone else is mostly fighting for Kachi-Koshi's. 

[Kashunowaka 300]

3 hours ago, Leoben said:

For comparison, Takakeisho took 14 tournaments from his makuuchi debut to make Ozeki, and Asanoyama took 16.

Hoshoryu debuted in Aki 2020 so this will be his 13th tournament in the top division. He could equal Takakeisho if he goes for double digits in this basho and the next one and he gets a JY or better in one of them (unlikely imo), and he has an OK shot at matching Asanoyama. But even if he doesn't, he's still just 23 and it doesn't feel like he's reached his ceiling yet.

Takakeisho already has over three years as ozeki, two 13-2 yusho from sanyaku rank, and lots of double-digit results. This is already a very good career.

Asanoyama has one 12-3 yusho from a low rank, a weak ozeki promotion and one decent year as ozeki before the suspension. I don't think he has shown yet whether he will fulfil his potential.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

12 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

Takakeisho already has over three years as ozeki, two 13-2 yusho from sanyaku rank, and lots of double-digit results. This is already a very good career.

When you put it this way I wonder if he will become this generation's Kaiō equivalent. Plenty to fear when fighting him in form, but medical concerns limiting him from ever stringing together 2 yūshō, and sometimes being restricted to strings of non-double-digit KKs.

[Jakusotsu 5,815]

39 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

When you put it this way I wonder if he will become this generation's Kaiō equivalent.

Mitakeumi raises his hand.

[Koorifuu 886]

1 hour ago, Chartorenji said:

feel like Hoshoryu is JSA/YDC's "please make the rank soonish" so they can have a somewhat long reigning Yokozuna. But again, that's a minimum of 4 basho from now, probably even longer. Mitakeumi would be the other one I can see making it but even then it comes down to injury luck and how much he wants it momentum wise. Shodai can't keep momentum for the life of him, Takakeisho can't stay healthy, and everyone else is mostly fighting for Kachi-Koshi's. 

Honestly, Takakeisho was always going to have a lower ceiling than everyone else you've mentioned. There's only so much a tadpole can achieve, and he's doing excellent. But two yusho (or equivalent) in a row would mean he'd had some very good luck.

8 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Mitakeumi raises his hand.

I'll be ecstatic if he delivers half the consistency that Kaio did as ozeki!