Aki 2022 discussion (results)

[Akinomaki 39,497]

28 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

56 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

None in a calendar year, but these are the six-basho streaks, the first starting with KK then MK, the second MK then KK.

Terunofuji actually managed the 3 in a year - his streak started Hatsu 2016 with a 3-3-9 - so our yokozuna with a 4 kadoban streak was actually worse than Shodai: there is still hope for Shodai to get the rope

I modified the query http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=7&n_basho=7&form1_rank=O&form1_wins=1-7&form1_year=1969-2022&form2_rank=O&form2_wins=8-15&form3_rank=O&form3_wins=1-7&form4_rank=O&form4_wins=8-15&form5_rank=O&form5_wins=1-7&form6_rank=O&form6_wins=8-15&form7_rank=o&form7_wins=1-7

A kadoban streak always has to start with an ozeki makekoshi: Musoyama also had a streak of 4 and 3 in a year, the last kadoban was his last basho

Edited September 19, 2022 by Akinomaki

[Benevolance 2,453]

Then Shodai is walking the path of greatness! And, uh, maybe playing golf this basho? Whatever sport it is, it's not sumo at any rate. 

[Hankegami 412]

59 minutes ago, Morty said:

He's won three of the last six basho, and jun-yusho'ed a fourth. He's got a few basho yet before anyone will be calling for Intai. His knees look buggered this basho, but he's still the most dominant rikishi on the banzuke over the past two years. Add to that that none of the three ozeki are remotely close to achieving Yokozuna status so there is no obvious replacement. So long as he doesn't hit anyone with a game controller or play a football game in Mongolia he should be insulated from Intai calls for at least another year

Just to be sure, I checked how previous Yokozuna were treated at the end of their careers. Hokutoumi is the only one with a situation somehow similar to Terunofuji, as he remained sole Yokozuna in January 1992 after a number of retirements (Chiyonofuji, May 1991; Onokuni, July 1991; Asahifuji, January 1992). Hokutoumi was also the youngest of the four (he was still 28 in 1991) and the most expected to remain. No one complained about him sitting out half of the 1991 bashos, nor about the fact he won his last yusho in March 1991. He clearly struggled to keep in, but eventually retired in late March 1991 and after him there was no Yokozuna until the promotion of Akebono in January 1993. Both him and Onokuni (who sat out for 6 of his last 11 bashos) were treated very well by the NSK. Asahifuji (Terunofuji's oyakata of all people) instead pulled out after having sat out only one basho in his late career.

Of course it was the early 1990s. Everyone knows that in 2020 Hakuho and Kakuryu received a formal warning after they sat out for two consecutive bashos (but Kisenosato received an "encouragement" after he pulled out in five, and sat out in other three, of his last ten bashos), hence the threshold is not fixed. Even being not a winner anymore gets some understanding. Kakuryu retired in March 2021 but his last yusho was Nagoya 2019 (11 tournaments before). The Hanada brothers (Takanohana and Wakanohana III) had a similar story. Takanohana even sat out for 9 of his last ten bashos, to cry out loud. More generally, most Yokozuna appear to have retired about a year after their last yusho (Musashimaru, Hokutoumi, Kotozakura, etc).

In short, I'd say that Terunofuji has at least a "right" to sit out for two basho in a row, and to stay around for another year after his last yusho (i.e. until May 2023). However, as already pointed out Terunofuji is a pupil of moto-Asahifuji, a guy that retired after having sat out his second to last basho and lost his first 4 bouts of this last basho. No fooling around. More than the NSK, I fear it would be Isegahama who could cut Terunofuji's career short if he starts dropping out. Which could also explain his behavior right now.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Hankegami

[Akinomaki 39,497]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

So he did, wonder why that didn’t show up in the queries then and if I did something wrong that means other cases have been missed too … the streak of KK>MK also started one basho before the 3-3-9 with a 9-6 that should have been in the results too.

A query of simply 3 kadoban in a row shows a few more

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=7&n_basho=6&form1_rank=O&form1_wins=0-7&form1_year=1969-2022&form2_rank=O&form2_wins=8-15&form3_rank=O&form3_wins=0-7&form4_rank=O&form4_wins=8-15&form5_rank=O&form5_wins=0-7&form6_rank=O

Musoyama didn't clear the last kadoban of the 3 in a row that started with the 2nd makekoshi - all ozeki who had 3 kadoban in a row cleared them, the 4th could kill them (4=shi, death - the unlucky number in Japan)

Kaio had a 4 kadoban streak as well and 3 in one year

Edited September 19, 2022 by Akinomaki

[Yubinhaad 11,499]

14 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Can't stand Otani. Like in the amateurs, he is a terrible sportsman. Why give a blatant late shove to a hopelessly overmatched 17-year-old jonokuchi rikishi?

Agreed. I was happy to see Takenawa-oyakata (former Sekiwake Tochinonada) call him over after the bout to give him a talking to, which hopefully was about the shove. He is also rather lazy in the shikiri and has the general air of "what am I doing down here? I'm above this" which I dislike intensely. Ability-wise he's clearly at a higher level, but attitude-wise he's right at the bottom for now.

[Sakura 1,460]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

So he did, wonder why that didn’t show up in the queries then and if I did something wrong that means other cases have been missed too … the streak of KK>MK also started one basho before the 3-3-9 with a 9-6 that should have been in the results too.

It's because you added losses in. The db doesn't count absences as losses. So the starting at MK query is now this and the starting at KK is now this.

[Akinomaki 39,497]

16 minutes ago, Sakura said:

It's because you added losses in. The db doesn't count absences as losses. So the starting at MK query is now this and the starting at KK is now this.

The query should be modified to include 0 wins for makekoshi - the Kaio case

1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

A query of simply 3 kadoban in a row shows a few more

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=7&n_basho=6&form1_rank=O&form1_wins=0-7&form1_year=1969-2022&form2_rank=O&form2_wins=8-15&form3_rank=O&form3_wins=0-7&form4_rank=O&form4_wins=8-15&form5_rank=O&form5_wins=0-7&form6_rank=O

Musoyama didn't clear the last kadoban of the 3 in a row that started with the 2nd makekoshi - all ozeki who had 3 kadoban in a row cleared them, the 4th could kill them (4=shi, death - the unlucky number in Japan)

Kaio had a 4 kadoban streak as well and 3 in one year

Edited September 19, 2022 by Akinomaki

[Sakura 1,460]

10 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

The query should be modified to include 0 wins for makekoshi - the Kaio case

Here you go. I hadn't noticed that the original query did not include 0 wins. Also this

Edited September 19, 2022 by Sakura

[Yamanashi 3,671]

9 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Komusubi and Sekiwake are expected to lose. That's sort of what they're their for: to be fodder for the Ozeki and Yokozuna corp. Such is the current quality though ...

Yeah, but they're supposed to lose to Y/O, not M1-M5 (Hoshoryu) or M2-3 (Daieisho).  The only rikishi the Sekiwake and Komosubi are gatekeeping is the Yokozuna and Ozeki!

[Kintamayama 44,189]

5 hours ago, Gernobono said:

the only reason to ask him to go kyujo is the  fact he is losing

nothing fact based

Oh, 99 percent of the guys’ injuries are not "fact based" until they go kyujo and the certificate calls the horse by its name (sometimes it's total bullcrap to cover for losses, as we know from the past, but still..). Nobody outside the inner circle knows anything for sure, How many times have we been surprised by a kyujo, only to be told that Somebodinishiki has actually been injured since day 5?. As for Terunofuji, his knees are worse for sure-constant pressure on an injured limb surely makes matters worse. The knees don't have to visibly buckle for all to see-just seeing he can't brace himself is enough. Watching him ouch crouch to receive the kensho envelopes is hard, and watching him carefully hop off the dohyo isn't a picnic either, at least for me. Oh wait, maybe he's losing on purpose so he doesn't have to Ken (crouch)?

Edited September 19, 2022 by Kintamayama

[Yamanashi 3,671]

2 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Oh, 99 percent of the guys’ injuries are not "fact based" until they go kyujo and the certificate calls the horse by its name. (Sometimes it's total bullcrap to cover for losses, as we know from the past, but still..). Nobody outside the inner circle knows anything for sure, How many times have we been surprised by a kyujo, only to be told that Somebodinishiki has actually been injured since day 5?. As for Terunofuji, his knees are worse for sure-constant pressure on an injured limb surely makes matters worse. The knees don't have to visibly buckle for all to see-just seeing he can't brace himself is enough. Watching him crouch to receive the kensho envelopes is hard, and watching him carefully hop off the dohyo isn't a picnic either, at least for me. Oh wait, maybe he's losing on purpose so he doesn't have to Ken (crouch)?

As I mentioned in another post, Yokozuna looking flat for three bouts and then discovering a "foot-back thingy" with two weeks rest (in time to go out and about after the present basho) always looks suspicious.  Terunofuji gets a pass from me; he isn't faking the pain in his knees, and he hasn't been one to bail out early after a loss or two.  In May he was 5-3 and ran the table for his 3rd yusho; I don't expect that this time, but if he does pull out you can bet it's not done lightly.

[dingo 1,102]

Part of me secretly wishes Terunofuji would retire and we could see the free-for-all that is the run for the next yokozuna. Kinda like that 1992-93 period. In a way that period is already going on, but unofficially. 

[Fashiritētā 154]

12 minutes ago, dingo said:

Part of me secretly wishes Terunofuji would retire and we could see the free-for-all that is the run for the next yokozuna. Kinda like that 1992-93 period. In a way that period is already going on, but unofficially. 

Not retire just yet, take a couple basho off and see who rises to the occasion, see what kind of results he gets, if favorable let him take every other basho off. We know he’s earned at least that.

Its a win win imo, but im just an armchair quarterback.

[rhyen 1,798]

It gets better.

https://www.nikkansports.com/yaku-mitsuru/

[Seiyashi 4,068]

Today's bouts showed that both Tobizaru and Midorifuji didn't luck into their current ranks and records. I wasn't a big fan of Tobizaru's "smacky smacky messy monkey" sumo when he first broke into the top division, but other than against Terunofuji, he hasn't actually used it that much this basho. His sumo has otherwise been actually quite straightforward and today's win against Kotonowaka was fairly technically impressive.

Midorifuji really fought his heart out but as it went on his chances weren't getting any higher. That said, it's a good result still and even if he MKs this basho it shouldn't be too severe, leaving him in position to try for a sanyaku debut soon.

Hōshōryū is a disappointment this basho. His score should really be better given how weak the top end of the banzuke is this time. To my eye he's lost the last three bouts by being way too overeager to finish things. Brawling isn't his strength; he impresses most when he gets a good belt grip, freezes the action, then implements his game plan. But he's just tried to pull throws, shoves, what have you for the past couple of days, and paid for it against opponents who improvise better than he does.

To be fair to Takakeishō 6-3 9 days in isn't entirely horrible. Of the top ranks he's having a very decent basho and might still be in position to play spoiler, and is probably ours and the NSK's last hope in terms of stopping Hokutofuji and yet another hiramaku yūshō. And he actually looks in decent condition to do it, unlike the other ōzeki or Terunofuji; the less said about Shōdai and Mitakeumi the better.

And lastly, that wasn't pretty sumo from Terunofuji. Ketaguri aside (the speed at which it lost him the bout being vaguely reminiscent of Kakuryū's final loss to Endō via koshikudake), it was clear he had little ability to resist Takayasu in oshi mode. The writing is always on the wall regarding his knees but it's not quite the end of the road for him just yet; he really ought to go kyūjō and save his strength and prevent further damage to his knees for one or two more good basho, so he can go out with a bang instead a whimper.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Kintamayama 44,189]

First time ever that an Ozeki goes hard makekoshi on day 9.  2 days of all Y/O losing in one basho is a first. 

Edited September 19, 2022 by Kintamayama

[hakutorizakura 581]

1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

First time ever that an Ozeki goes hard makekoshi on day 9.  2 days of all Y/O losing in one basho is a first. 

Terunofuji once scored 2-13 as an ozeki.. hope Shodai is not aiming for that record (Hey, but I might eventually become a yokozuna too then! ).

[Benevolance 2,453]

The problem is, they can't even really make Hokotofuji fight higher up the banzuke, either, because if they put him against the sanyaku it's giving him free wins. 

[Eikokurai 3,433]

5 hours ago, Sakura said:

Here you go. I hadn't noticed that the original query did not include 0 wins. Also this

Damn, how dense am I that I forgot about zero? 

[Kaninoyama 1,649]

4 hours ago, dingo said:

Part of me secretly wishes Terunofuji would retire and we could see the free-for-all that is the run for the next yokozuna. Kinda like that 1992-93 period. In a way that period is already going on, but unofficially. 

Terunofuji has repeatedly said himself that his won't be a long Yokozuna reign--that his knees only have so much sumo left in them. We're seeing some evidence of that this basho. 

[Eikokurai 3,433]

11 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

Terunofuji has repeatedly said himself that his won't be a long Yokozuna reign--that his knees only have so much sumo left in them. We're seeing some evidence of that this basho. 

I think it was always well accepted by everyone that Terunofuji fell into the Asahifuji-type, late-career, short-tenure Yokozuna promotion category rather than the Hakuho-type where you get the rope while young and enjoy a long reign.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Eikokurai

[Godango 956]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

I think it was always well accepted by everyone that Terunofuji fell into the Asahifuji-type, late-career, short-tenure Yokozuna promotion category rather than the Hakuho-type where you get the rope while young and enjoy a long reign.

Definitely, I am so rooting for him to get his 10 yusho though. Obviously it won't happen this year like he'd hoped, and admittedly the window appears to be closing. I'm gonna join the chorus wishing he'd just withdraw and rest those knees, but I'll be very happy to be eating crow by day 15 if he proves the doubters wrong.

[WAKATAKE 2,613]

59 minutes ago, Godango said:

Definitely, I am so rooting for him to get his 10 yusho though. Obviously it won't happen this year like he'd hoped, and admittedly the window appears to be closing. I'm gonna join the chorus wishing he'd just withdraw and rest those knees, but I'll be very happy to be eating crow by day 15 if he proves the doubters wrong.

Teru is not going to be a dai-yokozuna, but definitely one of the more memorable ones. He defied all sorts of odds to get where he is at. He's earned the rope and the respect of many even if he doesn't get to 10

[WAKATAKE 2,613]

Tamawashi on day 9 passed Takatoriki to compete in his 1457th consecutive match (even with his kyujo last basho, and while open to debate, the NSK is protecting his attendance streak due to his kyujo not being of his own accord). He is now in 3rd place on the all time consecutive match list

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202209190001056.html

[Godango 956]

12 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

Teru is not going to be a dai-yokozuna, but definitely one of the more memorable ones. He defied all sorts of odds to get where he is at. He's earned the rope and the respect of many even if he doesn't get to 10

100%, just rooting for him to achieve his stated goal. Glad to see he has withdrawn, though.