Aki 2022 discussion (results)

[Kishinoyama 582]

Terunofuji needs to withdraw. He is headed into Onokuni territory or worse. 

[Eikokurai 3,433]

11 minutes ago, Kishinoyama said:

Terunofuji needs to withdraw. He is headed into Onokuni territory or worse. 

Maybe the most important point of all, yes: the spectre of a makekoshi. Okay, he's got a three-loss margin of error, but even 7 defeats before kyujo would taint his reputation. Stepping out with 4 losses still leaves enough reasonable doubt about the possibility that he could have ended on double-digits if he were healthy. Going on says he felt he could compete (i.e. no health issues) but flopped. Not a good look for a Yokozuna.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Eikokurai

[junsan 168]

Just looking at Teru's knees bending so low during that Yasu match made me cringe. Just kyujo already man.

Down to the wire between Tetsujin Tama and Hokutofuji!

[Morty 1,480]

The fact that Terunofuji definitely didn't want to go belt to belt with Takayasu and did everything possible to avoid it, says everything about where he is at physically. Then he struggled to step off the dohyo after the bout. He's still got the upper body strength to throw the less skilled guys around, but in a belt battle with a big guy like Takayasu he knows he doesn't have the legs to do it.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Morty

[Hankegami 412]

Day 9 over. That, or they put in Day 6 twice and no one noticed the difference.

Just to be sure, the San'yaku tops with Wakatakakage and Daieisho, right? Because I refuse to believe that the guys above them are the actual top guns. Shodai appears not to mind to go 1-14 (why not?). Mitakeumi is totally out of touch and just gives up on the rope against an underwhelming Daieisho. Takakeisho, poor guy, tries his best but ends up on his butt of all places (not before channeling his inner Hoshoryu and attempting a throw... I mean, seriously, 'Keisho?). And someone please tell the hospital that Terunofuji has left his room in the osteology wing - again.

Back to the leaderboard, Hokutofuji keeps cruising full pace and goes 9-0 after having literally pushed out the first of his pursuers, Wakamotoharu. Tomorrow he will double down but against a more fearsome opponent, Takayasu (8-11 record). However, Takayasu did not appear particularly brilliant today against an ailing Terunofuji (for how long Teru managed to stay in on those knees of his?), so maybe we will see an upset. Maybe. Otherwise, this is a golden occasion for Takayasu to shorten their distance, also to be eventually taken by an unyielding Tamawashi, following close at 8-1.

The final days are approaching though, and some 6-3 guys in the joy could still be in. Wakatakakage is totally bouncing back and has yet to get both Takayasu and Hokutofuji. Tomorrow he is prospected to win against Ura (4-0 on record) and keep his 3 losses. Takakeisho surely will go on hoping for some miracle, and in the meanwhile he is prospected to run over Hoshoryu tomorrow (5-1). Kiribayama will face basho revelation Tobizaru for a surprisingly unpredictable match (precedents are 7-4 for the Monkey). As everyone already knows, the only guy without difficult matches to face is Tamawashi. Truth be told, tomorrow he will host Mitakeumi, against whom he has a terrible 4-27. But this Mitakeumi is not very trustworthy, isn't it?

1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

He has no kinboshi to give out anymore (except if they pair him with Hokutofuji) and he stayed till the end before, so I guess he'll go on

Probably true, but sadly for a different reason than usual. At 5-4 and likely going further down, Terunofuji is pretty much out of contention. Were Hokutofuji still among the leaders in the final days he will be probably paired against the likes of Takakeisho or Wakatakakage instead.

Anyway, Yokozuna are expected to limit their losses since forever. I am already bewildered he went on past Day 6. Although going on could be part of Isegahama-beya's philosophy (Harumafuji in Aki 2017 went on with 4 losses and eventually won the yusho with 11-4 thanks to a total meltdown of front-runner Goeido), there is a line between endurance and foolishness. I hope Terunofuji also gets it.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Hankegami

[RabidJohn 1,644]

I'm used to the idea of the joi meatgrinder, but it's usually the S-M3s that take the drubbing. This time it's the Y-O getting hammered. Four kinboshi given away, Shodai already MK and Mitakeumi looking like he's almost certainly back down to S for November. 
I am not at all irate with the Y-O for losing. I love the fact that results have become so difficult to predict.

Like others here I'm massively impressed by the M1 duo, Tobizaru and Midorifuji, who have exceeded expectations all round.

Hokutofuji at 9-0. Can the Bulldog's bulldog actually do it? 

[lackmaker 428]

Yokozuna in leg kick manoeuvre against an M4!

[Suwihuto 125]

I'm hoping for six sekiwake next basho.

Then eight after that.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Suwihuto

[Eikokurai 3,433]

39 minutes ago, Suwihuto said:

I'm hoping for six sekiwake next basho.

Then eight after that.

It's only a matter of time before the upper ranks are being padded out with two Maegashira-Ozeki.

[The Fat Cyclist 25]

2 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Maybe the most important point of all, yes: the spectre of a makekoshi. Okay, he's got a three-loss margin of error, but even 7 defeats before kyujo would taint his reputation. Stepping out with 4 losses still leaves enough reasonable doubt about the possibility that he could have ended on double-digits if he were healthy. Going on says he felt he could compete (i.e. no health issues) but flopped. Not a good look for a Yokozuna.

Thats exactly my reading of it. If he goes on & keeps losing there will be talk of intai but if he goes kyujo now there will be much less damaging to him. Especially given the recent history of Yokozuna kyujo.

[Eikokurai 3,433]

8 minutes ago, The Fat Cyclist said:

Thats exactly my reading of it. If he goes on & keeps losing there will be talk of intai but if he goes kyujo now there will be much less damaging to him. Especially given the recent history of Yokozuna kyujo.

Yeah, in carrying on he'd be tacitly waiving his right to blame future losses on being injured; after all, if he is, he should go kyujo. Pulling out means he can plausibly put his performance down to health.

[Gernobono 454]

i am wondering how anyone sees that terunofuji's knees are worse than before......he is just losing....maybe he has anything else.....he is wearing helps for years know and his knees never gave up in any of his recent losses.....

i really want to know how you realize it is a knee injury ....careerending when not kyujo from tomorrow

[Eikokurai 3,433]

20 minutes ago, Gernobono said:

i am wondering how anyone sees that terunofuji's knees are worse than before......he is just losing....maybe he has anything else.....he is wearing helps for years know and his knees never gave up in any of his recent losses.....

i really want to know how you realize it is a knee injury ....careerending when not kyujo from tomorrow

Inference based on the fact he doesn't often lose the way he's been losing unless he's hurting. He's just so much stronger and more robust on the dohyo than anyone else that if he's healthy, he's very difficult to move. Once or twice a basho he will perhaps give up a surprise win to someone, but four losses in nine days, and the manner of those losses, says his knees are playing up. Remember too that those four losses have all been kinboshi. These weren't defeats to guys he might expect to struggle against, but guys he should be beating easily, except maybe Takayasu.

Edit: Actually, Tamawashi too. He's got a good H2H record against Terunofuji (11-9 to Teru) and has beaten him 4 of the last 5 times they've met, all kinboshi, which is impressive.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Eikokurai

[Gernobono 454]

18 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Inference based on the fact he doesn't often lose the way he's been losing unless he's hurting.

the only reason to ask him to go kyujo is the  fact he is losing

nothing fact based

[dingo 1,133]

Today Tamawashi actually stepped out before Meiseis body touched down. By that time Meisei was already flying but technically he didn't touch down first (yes I know about the dead body rule). 

Also, initially I thought Tobizarus hand was down at least simultaneously to Kotonowakas body, but seemed like there was a split second difference in favour of Tobizaru. Wouldn't have been surprised if there had been a monoii. 

With regard to Terunofuji, I suspect he'll go kyujo after a fifth loss, cause double digits are really the imaginary line for yokozuna. 

[Yarimotsu 515]

Watching Teru's right knee clearly buckle again and again today was uncomfortable... People in this thread seem to think that he can take a basho or two off and come back with knees good enough to compete like last year again. I'm not so sure - after all, he's supposedly spent over $2M rehabilitating these knees to this point. If this is how bad things have become for him yet again, perhaps it's now something he simply cannot heal whether he pulls out or not. 

About Mitakeumi - I had the understanding from his quotes posted here after the last basho that it would be many weeks until he could practice again, and he was much more heavily injured than some realised. Coming into this basho with that understanding, I expected him to struggle. There's no way the same guy who got that ozeki promotion not long ago is now fighting this poorly without a severe injury. He seems unwilling to go in at certain angles, and unwilling to go for clamps or grips he would usually take. 

Hoshoryu seemed to have taken another small step forward in the start of this tournament, but has since proven that he has a few mental hurdles to cross and strategies to overcome before he can really improve. Oho is basically in the same boat.

Anyway, I've been thoroughly enjoying a lot more bouts in this basho. Gradually the old and broken rikishi are being shuffled off the banzuke and we're seeing a lot of young and spirited rikishi entering sekitori. 

[Benevolance 2,472]

I know the sanyaku looks bad, but if we pretend that they're tennis scores the whole scenario changes! At 6-3, Wakatakakage won his first set! Good work Wakatakakage! 

[Hankegami 412]

42 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Inference based on the fact he doesn't often lose the way he's been losing unless he's hurting. He's just so much stronger and more robust on the dohyo than anyone else that if he's healthy, he's very difficult to move. Once or twice a basho he will perhaps give up a surprise win to someone, but four losses in nine days, and the manner of those losses, says his knees are playing up. Remember too that those four losses have all been kinboshi. These weren't defeats to guys he might expect to struggle against, but guys he should be beating easily, except maybe Takayasu.

Edit: Actually, Tamawashi too. He's got a good H2H record against Terunofuji (11-9 to Teru) and has beaten him 4 of the last 5 times they've met, all kinboshi, which is impressive.

Terunofuji is historically weak against oshi wrestlers with strong nodo-wa (Abi, Daieisho, Tamawashi, Meisei) but only Tamawashi appears to know his number while all the other wrestlers only win on occasions. His current losing strike is particularly worrisome as he is regularly losing against oshi wrestlers. This means he has no resistance on his legs when he gets pushed back, while he normally counters most oshi attacks rather well. The only explanation is that his knees are acting up.

This is particularly puzzling because Terunofuji knows his own strong and weak points, which implies he knew he had no chances against Takayasu. And tomorrow he is expected to face Daieisho, who is surely in a sub-par shape himself and yet managed to push an equally under-tone Mitakeumi out. The Yokozuna losing for a fifth time tomorrow is definitively on the cards.

But perhaps @dingo is right and Terunofuji is chasing a save-face 10-5. I wrote something along these lines myself the other day, I think. If his problems are oshi wrestlers, there are just a few more to face. Of them, only Takakeisho is in good shape. Daieisho and Mitakeumi are sub-par this basho, while Shodai is both abysmal and a primarily yotsu wrestler. Betting just a loss to Takakeisho, a 10-5 is still on the table. Another possibility is that, as @Yarimotsu said, his knees are at this point beyond healing and Terunofuji just wants to be on the dohyo as long as he can.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Hankegami

[Akinomaki 39,585]

Shodai this year will be as many times kadoban as possible, except with a COVID extension. Which other ozeki managed to have 3 kadoban basho in one year under the present kadoban system since Nagoya 1969?

Edited September 19, 2022 by Akinomaki

[Seregost 123]

3 hours ago, lackmaker said:

Yokozuna in leg kick manoeuvre against an M4!

Last one I remember didn't end well (Kakuryuu's last bout). Maybe Hakuho use it later, I'm not sure

[Eikokurai 3,433]

34 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Shodai this year will be as many times kadoban as possible, except with a COVID extension. Which other ozeki managed to have 3 kadoban basho in one year under the present kadoban system since Nagoya 1969?

None in a calendar year, but these are the six-basho streaks, the first starting with KK then MK, the second MK then KK.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=6&n_basho=6&form1_rank=O&form1_wins=1-7&form1_losses=8-15&form2_rank=O&form2_wins=8-15&form2_losses=1-7&form3_rank=O&form3_wins=1-7&form3_losses=8-15&form4_rank=O&form4_wins=8-15&form4_losses=1-7&form5_rank=O&form5_wins=1-7&form5_losses=8-15&form6_rank=O&form6_wins=8-15&form6_losses=1-7
 

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=6&n_basho=6&form1_rank=O&form1_wins=8-15&form1_losses=1-7&form2_rank=O&form2_wins=1-7&form2_losses=8-15&form3_rank=O&form3_wins=8-15&form3_losses=1-7&form4_rank=O&form4_wins=1-7&form4_losses=8-15&form5_rank=O&form5_wins=8-15&form5_losses=1-7&form6_rank=O&form6_wins=1-7&form6_losses=8-15

Basically, Shodai sets another new record to add to his ‘first Ozeki to MK on day 9/earliest ever MK by a non-Kyujo Ozeki’. (Chiyotaikai started 0-8 but the 8th loss was a fusen.)

Edited September 19, 2022 by Eikokurai

[Morty 1,480]

3 hours ago, The Fat Cyclist said:

Thats exactly my reading of it. If he goes on & keeps losing there will be talk of intai but if he goes kyujo now there will be much less damaging to him. Especially given the recent history of Yokozuna kyujo.

He's won three of the last six basho, and jun-yusho'ed a fourth. He's got a few basho yet before anyone will be calling for Intai. His knees look buggered this basho, but he's still the most dominant rikishi on the banzuke over the past two years. Add to that that none of the three ozeki are remotely close to achieving Yokozuna status so there is no obvious replacement. So long as he doesn't hit anyone with a game controller or play a football game in Mongolia he should be insulated from Intai calls for at least another year

Edited September 19, 2022 by Morty

[Akinomaki 39,585]

21 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

None in a calendar year, but these are the six-basho streaks, the first starting with KK then MK, the second MK then KK.

Terunofuji actually managed the 3 in a year - his streak started Hatsu 2016 with a 3-3-9 - so our yokozuna with a 4 kadoban streak was actually worse than Shodai: there is still hope for Shodai to get the rope

[dingo 1,133]

1 hour ago, Benevolance said:

I know the sanyaku looks bad, but if we pretend that they're tennis scores the whole scenario changes! At 6-3, Wakatakakage won his first set! Good work Wakatakakage! 

Nice try, but even this angle doesn't save the sanyaku much. Most of them are still struggling in the first set whereas Shodai has just decided to play by his own rules (basketball maybe?) 

[Eikokurai 3,433]

25 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Terunofuji actually managed the 3 in a year - his streak started Hatsu 2016 with a 3-3-9 - so our yokozuna with a 4 kadoban streak was actually worse than Shodai: there is still hope for Shodai to get the rope

So he did, wonder why that didn’t show up in the queries then and if I did something wrong that means other cases have been missed too … the streak of KK>MK also started one basho before the 3-3-9 with a 9-6 that should have been in the results too.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Eikokurai