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Asashosakari

Who will join Chiyomaru and Tsurugisho in makuuchi for Nagoya 2022?

Who will join Chiyomaru and Tsurugisho in makuuchi for Nagoya 2022?  

40 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. Which set of additional promotees do you think is *most* likely?

    • Hidenoumi J1w 8-7 & Ryuden J3w 9-6
    • Hidenoumi J1w 8-7 & Daiamami J6e 11-4
    • Ryuden J3w 9-6 & Daiamami J6e 11-4
    • Daiamami J6e 11-4 & Nishikifuji J6w 11-4
  2. 2. Which set of additional promotees do you think is *second-most* likely?

    • Hidenoumi J1w 8-7 & Ryuden J3w 9-6
    • Hidenoumi J1w 8-7 & Daiamami J6e 11-4
    • Ryuden J3w 9-6 & Daiamami J6e 11-4
    • Daiamami J6e 11-4 & Nishikifuji J6w 11-4
  3. 3. Which set of additional promotees do you think is *third-most* likely?

    • Hidenoumi J1w 8-7 & Ryuden J3w 9-6
    • Hidenoumi J1w 8-7 & Daiamami J6e 11-4
    • Ryuden J3w 9-6 & Daiamami J6e 11-4
    • Daiamami J6e 11-4 & Nishikifuji J6w 11-4

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  • Poll closed on 24/06/22 at 19:00

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Posted (edited)

As there's widespread consternation over the upcoming promotions from juryo to makuuchi for Nagoya basho, here's a poll about them. B-) Or rather, an attempt at sourcing the wisdom of the crowds to see how that stacks up against the Kyokai's decision-making.

Simplifying assumptions:

  • There are going to be four promotions, replacing eminently demotable Azumaryu, Ishiura, Kotokuzan and Kagayaki, but no additional ones pulling down borderline Yutakayama and Oho. 
  • Chiyomaru J1e 8-7 and Tsurugisho J2w 10-5 are guaranteed to be among the four rikishi getting promoted.
  • It's impossible for Nishikifuji to get promoted without Daiamami.

That leaves four possible options in selecting the remaining two promotions:

  • Hidenoumi J1w 8-7 and Ryuden J3w 9-6 are going up, Daiamami and Nishikifuji are staying down
  • Hidenoumi J1w 8-7 and Daiamami J6e 11-4 are going up, Ryuden and Nishikifuji are staying down
  • Ryuden J3w 9-6 and Daiamami J6e 11-4 are going up, Hidenoumi and Nishikifuji are staying down
  • Daiamami J6e 11-4 and Nishikifuji J6w 11-4 are going up, Hidenoumi and Ryuden are staying down

All of these have something to recommend them, especially in light of Hidenoumi and Ryuden's recent suspension business. Consequently, the poll consists of three questions with identical choices offered, namely these four alternatives, asking which of them you consider the most likely, second-most likely, and third-most likely outcome, respectively.* Please take care not to vote for the same choice in multiple blocks, and please do respond to all three blocks even if you feel very strongly about just one or two possibilities.

I've set the poll votes to public in order to be able to recognize inconsistent votes, so if you're not okay with that (particularly in regards to your GTB fortunes), please either do not vote or wait until the GTB deadline has passed. If you think this is all nonsense because they've decided to promote five or even all six guys, feel free to vote anyway, but please consider if you're actually serious about it as a mental exercise at least and abstain if you're not. If you think there are going to be fewer than four promotions, I honestly don't know what to tell you.

Assuming this thing actually attracts interest from more than just three or four people, I'm going to tally up the results ahead of the banzuke release. The poll will be closing 48 hours before the new banzuke is made public.


* I wanted to make it explicit and include a fourth block for your least likely outcome to select as well, but polls are restricted to three questions. It's still going to be implied that the one option that didn't make it into your top 3 is the one you consider least likely, of course.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Posted (edited)

So, no choices for nishikifuji being a stronger promotion candidate than daiamami? I thought it's unlikely, but some have commented that it's completely without precedent to know if a title decider between same-rank rikishi swaps their order.

Edit: I see your assumption now, that makes sense. Worth discussing though I think

Edited by Yarimotsu
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Posted (edited)

Right, I did bring that up ;-) but it honestly feels like too much of a rolling of the dice to actually predict it with something at stake, i.e. in a potential GTB entry, and players' thought processes for that are what I'm trying to get at with this poll. Offering up just the four major possibilities for the voting seemed like the way to go to keep things from being impossible to summarize. (After all, even leaving Chiyomaru or Tsurugisho in juryo technically wouldn't break any protocol, but the line has to be drawn somewhere.)

That being said, if somebody does predict Nishikifuji over Daiamami or something other than four promotions in GTB, and it turns out right, I'll be first in line to be all (Iamnotworthy...)about it.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Posted (edited)

I can't vote in this simply because my third option would contravene the rules of this poll, but for your purposes of elucidating thoughts, my choices go in this order of likelihood:

  1. Daiamami and Nishikifuji going up, technically having gone J-1 by the numbers and having stronger promotion cases than Hidenoumi and Ryūden. I don't particularly count their suspensions against them, though, because the NSK doesn't seem to have been particularly vindictive about keeping rikishi in the doghouse beyond their suspension period.
  2. Hidenoumi and Ryūden going up, because their records are J0 and Hidenoumi is pretty promotable at J1w, and 2 J6s stuck at J1 after 11-4 is no hardship/not unprecedented.
  3. Hidenoumi and Nishikifuji going up, because Hidenoumi is promotable and a yūshō (even after a ketteisen) might be a sufficiently differentiating factor to this new shimpanbu where god knows what they're going to do.
Edited by Seiyashi

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10 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Hidenoumi and Nishikifuji going up, because Hidenoumi is promotable and a yūshō (even after a ketteisen) might be a sufficiently differentiating factor to this new shimpanbu where god knows what they're going to do

How new is this group really? I know there are a few new faces, but what fraction actually turned over?

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15 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Or rather, an attempt at sourcing the wisdom of the crowds to see how that stacks up against the Kyokai's decision-making.

I'll point out that there's a difference between "what I think should happen" and "what I think will happen", at least in theory, for various possibilities of "I" other than myself.  In this situation my personal feelings tend to line up with what I think the committee will do, but that's not always the case.

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Posted (edited)

I meant "wisdom of the crowds" in terms of accurately predicting the Kyokai's decision-making; I was hoping the "what do you think is most likely..." phrasing of the poll questions made that clear enough. Of course we could have just waited for people's GTB entries to see who they've sent up to makuuchi in there, but that would only tell us each entrant's top choice and not how close their expectations were overall, hence the poll.

Edited by Asashosakari

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7 hours ago, Reonito said:

How new is this group really? I know there are a few new faces, but what fraction actually turned over?

I can't give you the exact number, but I get the feeling this group regardless of composition seems to have decided to mix things up quite a bit.

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19 hours ago, maglor said:

Actually there is precedent - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=198005#J

I also think it's not too impossible for there to be 5 promotions - if Kiribayama was to get promoted to Komusubi then Yutakayama finds himself without anywhere to go

To expand on Asashosakari's reply - this is the first time since the precedent of switching ranks for playoff yusho winners was created in 1997 that we have seen a non-sanyaku rank pair contest the playoff and the west side win. Whether they follow the rule since 1997 of the yusho winner being ranked higher or they decide this does not apply to non-sanyaku cases is yet to be seen.

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Almost half of us got it right ! (Noddingyes...)

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7 hours ago, Pitinosato said:

Almost half of us got it right ! (Noddingyes...)

Could be an interesting exercise to compare the GTB scores of those who did and those who didn't, leaving out any points from this choice ;-)

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On 27/05/2022 at 03:17, Yarimotsu said:

To expand on Asashosakari's reply - this is the first time since the precedent of switching ranks for playoff yusho winners was created in 1997 that we have seen a non-sanyaku rank pair contest the playoff and the west side win. Whether they follow the rule since 1997 of the yusho winner being ranked higher or they decide this does not apply to non-sanyaku cases is yet to be seen.

I guess now we know ... to the extent that we know anything when it comes to the banzuke.

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