Sign in to follow this  
Kintamayama

Invite for GTB- July (Nagoya) 2022- 155 entries - RESULTS!!

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Is that in the spirit of "this is what I'd do if I were making the banzuke" or because there's precedent? I can't remember the last time an incumbent who was not demotable by the numbers got pushed down, so I am not sure what that takes.

After Nagoya 2014, Tokushoryu for Sadanoumi is basically the same. 

After Hatsu 2015, Kagamio is obvious to go down as the pressure is overwhelming unless they don't promote Amuru, so not particularly relevant. 

After Hatsu 2020 is almost precisely the same except because M18 disappeared Meisei is demotable (when that previously wasn't an issue).  Weakest promotion is maybe the 8-7 M1e, a 10-5 J3 or 11-4 J5, but there's also a 12-3 J6 there.

After Hatsu 2021 it looks almost identical with Tokushoryu being demoted when M17 disappears for even weaker promotions: 8-7 J1w, 11-4 J6, 12-3 J8.

So I guess I'm stuck in my 2014-2015 view of things based on that being when I started following sumo.  Specifically in that case as my precedent for disappearing ranks not mattering is actually the opposite: a rank reappearing for Azumaryu after Haru 2014, but his spot was given to either a 9-6 J6 or 8-7 J4 (or maybe even others, too many weak promotions there).

 

Edited by Gurowake
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

After Nagoya 2014, Tokushoryu for Sadanoumi is basically the same. 

This was also a case of M17e disappearing, so maybe that's a bigger factor than we think ... but "reappearing" might not be a thing in the sense that someone is demotable if by the numbers they fall below the last rank on either the old banzuke or the new one, if that makes sense.

Edited by Reonito
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gah, there goes my chance of gaining unexpectedly from a good decision.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Reonito said:

This was also a case of M17e disappearing, so maybe that's a bigger factor than we think ... but "reappearing" might not be a thing in the sense that someone is demotable if by the numbers they fall below the last rank on either the old banzuke or the new one, if that makes sense.

Thanks, I didn't notice that in Nagoya 2014.  I guess my head was firmly lodged in the "disappearing ranks don't matter" simply because the reappearing rank didn't matter in the first banzuke I attempted to predict (which wasn't in time for GTB, if you look at my history).  It certainly appears through my recalling of the history of my guesses at the banzuke the only time they've overdemoted someone outside of the disappearing rank situation, it was definitely needed.

So I guess if you think they'll create another Komusubi slot, Yutakayama's toast, and if you think they'll create two, Oho as well.

So I'll then change my "should have" for what prompted this to just mean in the way I would do things, rather than the way I think they're going to.

Edited by Gurowake
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a mess. With the logjam at the top I felt no other alternative than to promote Kiribayama and Takanosho to komusubi. Somehow I feel the judging will figure it out someway to not put them at komusubi, I am expecting a very low scoring GTB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some 36 hours left-will the entry number record be broken? Enter now!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 18/06/2022 at 23:30, WAKATAKE said:

What a mess. With the logjam at the top I felt no other alternative than to promote Kiribayama and Takanosho to komusubi. Somehow I feel the judging will figure it out someway to not put them at komusubi, I am expecting a very low scoring GTB

I think 4 komusubi is a certainty but making my picks was easier with 2 Komusubi.

So against my better judgement 2 Komusubi it is.

(Who said I had a better judgement anyway? ;-) )

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Fujisan said:

I think 4 komusubi is a certainty but making my picks was easier with 2 Komusubi.

I feel like opening a poll after the GTB deadline has passed to see how many komusubi people went for. Any takers?

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

153 entries with a few hours to go. A record?

Edited by Kintamayama
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

153 entries with a few hours to go. A record?

Current record is 164 entries in Haru 2022, but this is the 2nd highest for sure, I've been reminding everyone I can to see if we can get the last 11 and break it, I'll do it again now!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I feel like opening a poll after the GTB deadline has passed to see how many komusubi people went for. Any takers?

I think you did the research which showed that post-2006, when the approach seems to have changed, there have been exactly two occasions in about 90 basho when the K2 rank was used (involving 9-6 M1e and 13-2 M1w). Similarly, not counting demoted ozeki, S2 has been used on 3 occasions, all involving komusubi with 11+ wins. And yet it seems like for GTB, the possibility is brought up like every other basho.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I think you did the research which showed that post-2006, when the approach seems to have changed, there have been exactly two occasions in about 90 basho when the K2 rank was used (involving 9-6 M1e and 13-2 M1w). Similarly, not counting demoted ozeki, S2 has been used on 3 occasions, all involving komusubi with 11+ wins. And yet it seems like for GTB, the possibility is brought up like every other basho.

A saying regarding stopped clocks and twice a day comes to mind...

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

A saying regarding stopped clocks and twice a day comes to mind...

According to my grandson, a stopped clock goes dark.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Asojima said:

According to my grandson, a stopped clock goes dark.

There's a generation gap if I ever saw one!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nagoya22.png.68674d04162393f2b3d62aafbe70af1a.png

I had some desire to move Ichiyamamoto up a slot or two, and I played around with the ordering of the last 5 names a lot before convincing myself of this new ordering, which I still have no faith in, but overall, there were very few decisions to make this time. The banzuke just fell into place like a dream.

What worries me about the bottom 5 is that there are essentially 3 elements within (Oho-Yutakayama, Daiamami-Nishikifuji, Chiyomaru), of which any ordering seemed feasible, and unless you hedge your bets, the scoring of that group will be extremely unforgiving. I'm hoping I won't have big regrets about abandoning the more common orderings that I started with.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very similar to mine. Ignore my bizarre colouring scheme!

Screenshot 2022-06-17 at 03.33.02.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Kaito said:

I had some desire to move Ichiyamamoto up a slot or two, and I played around with the ordering of the last 5 names a lot before convincing myself of this new ordering, which I still have no faith in, but overall, there were very few decisions to make this time. The banzuke just fell into place like a dream.

What worries me about the bottom 5 is that there are essentially 3 elements within (Oho-Yutakayama, Daiamami-Nishikifuji, Chiyomaru), of which any ordering seemed feasible, and unless you hedge your bets, the scoring of that group will be extremely unforgiving. I'm hoping I won't have big regrets about abandoning the more common orderings that I started with.

Mine is identical M1-M12. I put Onosho at M14w, with everyone else moving up accordingly. And I have Chiyomaru ahead of the J6 duo. My concerns are whether they actually move down Ichinojo and, as you say, everything near the bottom.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Damn missed Ichinojo's co-vid withdrawal .

That will cost me!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Terunofuji (Ye 12-3 Y)   Y    ---
Takakeisho (O2w 8-7)     O1   Mitakeumi (O1e 6-9)
---                      O2   Shodai (O1w 5-10)
Wakatakakage (Se 9-6)    S    Daieisho (Kw 11-4)
Hoshoryu (Ke 8-7)        K    Abi (Sw 7-8)

Kiribayama (M2e 10-5)    M1   Ichinojo (M1w kosho)
Kotonowaka (M2w 9-6)     M2   Takanosho (M4w 11-4)
Tamawashi (M3w 9-6)      M3   Takayasu (M1e 6-9)
Ura (M6e 9-5-1)          M4   Wakamotoharu (M6w 9-6)
Endo (M4e 7-8)           M5   Sadanoumi (M12w 11-4)
Aoiyama (M11e 10-5)      M6   Tobizaru (M5w 7-8)
Okinoumi (M10e 9-6)      M7   Hokutofuji (M3e 5-10)
Tochinoshin (M9w 8-7)    M8   Shimanoumi (M8e 7-8)
Nishikigi (M10w 8-7)     M9   Kotoeko (M7w 6-9)
Chiyotairyu (M13e 8-7)   M10  Meisei (M13w 8-7)
Kotoshoho (M9e 6-9)      M11  Midorifuji (M16w 9-6)
Terutsuyoshi (M8w 5-10)  M12  Takarafuji (M7e 4-11)
Ichiyamamoto (M15w 8-7)  M13  Chiyoshoma (M11w 6-9)
Myogiryu (M12e 6-9)      M14  Onosho (M5e 2-4-9)
Tsurugisho (J2w 10-5)    M15  Oho (M14e 6-9)
Yutakayama (M14w 6-9)    M16  Daiamami (J6e 11-4 D)
Nishikifuji (J6w 11-4 Y) M17  Chiyomaru (J1e 8-7)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Kiribayama (M2e 10-5)    M1   Ichinojo (M1w kosho)
Kotonowaka (M2w 9-6)     M2   Takanosho (M4w 11-4)

I think we differ only by switches of Ichinojo/Takanosho (which I'm increasingly second-guessing), Takayasu/Ura, and where Chiyomaru goes relative to the J6 duo.

 

Edited by Reonito

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, I initially had Chiyoshoma and Myogiryu in a tier with the 3 guys above, so Onosho going under that pair wouldn't be too surprising. I could kind of tell that's what other players were doing.

My thinking was, the treatment Ishiura got recently with 2 wins was unusually harsh and not even in alignment with Meisei's treatment in the same banzuke. It seems to me like the committee, aware of wrestlers' natural levels, will show respect where it's been earned and try to put wrestlers closer to where they belong. If Onosho gets the Meisei treatment, it's 13E by my math. Nobody I've placed below him has any argument for needing to go higher than they are. Far from it.

Also, the only recent precedent for 2 wins from M5E was Chiyotairyu in Sept. 2019 who only fell to M11W somehow.

But yeah, I already regret not sliding him down 1 spot, if not 3. I did have it at one point. *shrug*

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I think we differ only by switches of Ichinojo/Takanosho (which I'm increasingly second-guessing), Takayasu/Ura, and where Chiyomaru goes relative to the J6 duo.

I had Chiyomaru in front of both J6's initially, but that just seemed so odd in relation to where Hidenoumi will go if he's not promoted. Of course, that kind of thing has never stopped them before, so I fully expect to have wasted 5 points there at the last moment.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Terunofuji(12-3 Ye) Y  
Takakeisho(8-7 Ow) O Mitakeumi(6-9 Oe)
  O Shodai(5-10 Ow)
Wakatakakage(9-6 Se) S Daieisho(11-4 Kw)
Hoshoryu(8-7 Ke) K Abi(7-8 Sw)
Kiribayama(10-5 M2e) M1 Takanosho(11-4 M4w)
Kotonowaka(9-6 M2w) M2 Ichinojo(0-0 M1w)
Tamawashi(9-6 M3w) M3 Takayasu(6-9 M1e)
Ura(9-5 M6e) M4 Wakamotoharu(9-6 M6w)
Endo(7-8 M4e) M5 Sadanoumi(11-4 M12w)
Aoiyama(10-5 M11e) M6 Tobizaru(7-8 M5w)
Okinoumi(9-6 M10e) M7 Hokutofuji(5-10 M3e)
Tochinoshin(8-7 M9w) M8 Shimanoumi(7-8 M8e)
Nishikigi(8-7 M10w) M9 Kotoeko(6-9 M7w)
Chiyotairyu(8-7 M13e) M10 Meisei(8-7 M13w)
Kotoshoho(6-9 M9e) M11 Midorifuji(9-6 M16w)
Terutsuyoshi(5-10 M8w) M12 Takarafuji(4-11 M7e)
Ichiyamamoto(8-7 M15w) M13 Chiyoshoma(6-9 M11w)
Myogiryu(6-9 M12e) M14 Onosho(2-4 M5e)
Tsurugisho(10-5 J2w) M15 Daiamami(11-4 J6e)
Oho(6-9 M14e) M16 Nishikifuji(11-4 J6w)
Yutakayama(6-9 M14w) M17 Chiyomaru(8-7 J1e)

 

Yes, I "split the difference" on the J6s vs. M14s, because I felt they should basically be in the same place, and thus the guys who are a half-rank ahead should be ahead of the others.  It doesn't really matter much because it's only a swap of the ones landing on M16 vs. what I might do otherwise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
New Sorted Rikishi New Rank
Terunofuji Y1e
Takakeisho O1e
Mitakeumi O1w
Shodai O2w
Wakatakakage S1e
Daieisho S1w
Hoshoryu K1e
Abi K1w
Kiribayama M1e
Ichinojo M1w
Takanosho M2e
Kotonowaka M2w
Tamawashi M3e
Ura M3w
Takayasu M4e
Wakamotoharu M4w
Endo M5e
Sadanoumi M5w
Aoiyama M6e
Tobizaru M6w
Okinoumi M7e
Hokutofuji M7w
Tochinoshin M8e
Nishikigi M8w
Shimanoumi M9e
Kotoeko M9w
Kotoshoho M10e
Chiyotairyu M10w
Meisei M11e
Takarafuji M11w
Midorifuji M12e
Terutsuyoshi M12w
Ichiyamamoto M13e
Onosho M13w
Chiyoshoma M14e
Myogiryu M14w
Tsurugisho M15e
Oho M15w
Yutakayama M16e
Chiyomaru M16w
Daiamami M17e
Nishikifuji M17w

Looks like I've managed to have the longest and most annoying copy-paste due to putting all my calculations in a line instead of exporting to a E-W table. Sorry!

It seems my most contentious move is putting nishikigi back up against tochinoshin and fully demoting shimanoumi. I know it's not ideal with the balancing of banzuke math but I think it's a possibility. Also I've put takarafuji ahead of midorifuji based on last basho's banzuke.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Mine here:

Y1e Terunofuji (12-3 Y) Y1 None
None Y2 None
O2w Takakeishō (8-7) Ō1 O1e Mitakeumi (6-9)
None Ō2 O1w Shōdai (5-10)
None Ō3 None
S1e Wakatakakage (9-6) S1 K1w Daieishō (11-4 JS)
None S2 None
K1e Hōshōryū (8-7) K1 S1w Abi (7-8)
None K2 None
M2e Kiribayama (10-5) M1 M2w Kotonowaka (9-6)
M4w Takanoshō (11-4 JS) M2 M3w Tamawashi (9-6)
M1w Ichinojō (0-0-15) M3 M6w Wakamotoharu (9-6)
M6e Ura (9-5-1) M4 M1e Takayasu (6-9)
M12w Sadanoumi (11-4 JK) M5 M4e Endō (7-8)
M11e Aoiyama (10-5) M6 M5w Tobizaru (7-8)
M10e Okinoumi (9-6) M7 M3e Hokutofuji (5-10)
M9w Tochinoshin (8-7) M8 M8e Shimanoumi (7-8)
M10w Nishikigi (8-7) M9 M7w Kotoekō (6-9)
M13e Chiyotairyū (8-7) M10 M13w Meisei (8-7)
M9e Kotoshōhō (6-9) M11 M8w Terutsuyoshi (5-10)
M7e Takarafuji (4-11) M12 M16w Midorifuji (9-6)
M15w Ichiyamamoto (8-7) M13 M11w Chiyoshōma (6-9)
J2w Tsurugishō (10-5) M14 M5e Ōnoshō (2-4-9)
M12e Myōgiryū (6-9) M15 J1e Chiyomaru (8-7)
J1w Hidenoumi (8-7) M16 J6w Nishikifuji (11-4 Y)
M14e Ōhō (6-9) M17 M14w Yutakayama (6-9)

Funnily enough the mid of the table is pretty ordinary for once, but it's the joi and the end of it that's an issue. 50 points overlap with Reonito, 54 with Gurowake, and 52 with Asashosakari.

Major points of divergence with everyone else: ordering of the joi, the Isegahama trio, and who the jūryō promotees are and where they fall relative to the MKs in lower makuuchi.

Edited by Seiyashi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this