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Kintamayama

Invite for GTB- July (Nagoya) 2022- 155 entries - RESULTS!!

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Posted (edited)

It's that time again. Again, apologies for last basho's entry page problems. Hopefully, that is all behind us, or at least beneath us. One thing we've learned, again - there is absolutely no reason to delay your entry. Nothing is going to change from today till then. It's a fun game, please play.

Drring driiiing.

Nobody home.

This is a formal invitation to play the "Guess the Banzuke" game!! 25 years, 145 bashos. Please play. Gluten-free.

Game rules: Guess the Banzuke. Simple. You get two points for a bulls-eye and one point for just getting the rank right. You get no points for whining about the Ozeki. Tiebreakers - Most total guesses, then we check the banzuke backwards - getting the lower half right will be important.  The most correct guesses in the last ten places will win the tiebreaker. If still tied, we go up a ranking at a time like a penalty shootout. If still tied, I suggest the best bribe wins. Preferably a week at some cool resort where they have drinks with umbrellas, and not vice versa. It's up to you to check if you are on the list of entries. It's going to be your fault if you don't notice that your entry went missing in the Internet void. No late entries will be expected or accepted. Those are the rules, and the rules will never be changed. Just like the dohyo will never be lowered and Enhou will not grow taller..

For rules, standings and the additional refresher course for the new shinpan which will never happen: http://www.dichne.com/Guess.htm

For the nifty entry form, which will hopefully do what it's intended to do this time: http://sumodb.sumoga...b/GTBEntry.aspx

For the "new" archives: http://sumodb.sumoga...gtbarchive.aspx

See if you are on the entry list: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBEntryList.aspx

Deadline: Monday, June 20 2022 at 18:00 GMT ("Gyoji Mustn't Tie!!") - PLEASE NOTE-THIS IS ONE WEEK BEFORE THE OFFICIAL BANZUKE ANNOUNCEMENT!!

Special thanks to Andoreasu who runs it, Doitsuyama who automates and maintains it and to the VAR for showing the right part of the bout in question.

Edited by Kintamayama

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GTB Haiku:

Come on everyone

No reason to wait to play

Play NOW. Summer comes.

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Posted (edited)

I hope I'm not stepping on any toes here, but based on Asashosakari's version, I've created another version in GSheets:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1A-ymzKYk3NPB7LCNdhDTXtO-0vDFLNOp3GmCODj7N6w/edit?usp=sharing

The main difference with Asashosakari's version is that it includes explicit duplicate protection: if you select the same rikishi for multiple positions on the banzuke (via a dropdown selection as in the official entry form), it will turn red. There's also a link to a countdown to the deadline to avoid timezone shenanigans.

EDIT: Now upgraded to grey out rikishi names on the old banzuke as you select them on the new one. Also feel free to share the link to non-forumers who also play GTB (are there very many of those?).

Edited by Seiyashi
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I mean, that's more an entirely different use case than an upgrade. My helper file has always been geared towards people who prefer to build the new ranking from the old one, rather than directly in an empty slate.

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Posted (edited)

Yeah. I've added a conditional formatting upgrade to grey out each rikishi's name as they are entered into the new banzuke, but that's as far as I'll go, I think. So the good news is that there are two options for helper files for people looking for them: direct entry of rank, in which case they'll use yours, or selection from a dropdown in a new form, in which case they'll use mine.

As a matter of OCD I've also expanded the old banzuke so it lines up with the new one, including spare slots for "haridashi" sanyaku.

EDIT - I've discovered a bug thanks to the Ura - Ishiura pairs and Ōhō - Kotoshōhō which wrecks my regex search. I'll need to search for a way to make it discriminate between cases, but until that is fixed, users please be aware of this problem.

EDIT2 - Fixed.

Edited by Seiyashi

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Posted (edited)

Back to regular scheduled programming for GTB guesses:

  1. It's technically possible to fit Kiribayama and Takanoshō as a pair of haridashi komusubi, even though things get a bit tight around M10+ resulting in a lot of good banzuke luck being handed around. The "merit" of the haridashi komusubi approach is that it keeps Ichinojō as M1w, but he gets functionally demoted using the "count from top of banzuke" logic.
  2. Ōhō and Yutakayama are really borderline cases if makuuchi ends at M16, and they might even go down in favour of the J6 11-4 pair. The last J6 Y stayed at J1, but is that precedent going to hold?

So it basically boils down to, how YOLO do you think this banzuke committee is going to be? The sanity argues for the non-haridashi komusubi approach, but that's never worked well so far. Both banzuke have zones of unreasonableness; it's whether a bunch of strong performances in the joi are underrewarded, or a whole bunch of mediocre KKs in lower makuuchi are overpromoted.

Edited by Seiyashi
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1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

The sanity argues for the non-haridashi komusubi approach, but that's never worked well so far. Both banzuke have zones of unreasonableness; it's whether a bunch of strong performances in the joi are underrewarded, or a whole bunch of mediocre KKs in lower makuuchi are overpromoted.

Have we seen any instances of the HD approach in the last 15 years where their hand wasn't forced? And yes, I know the denominator is important.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Have we seen any instances of the HD approach in the last 15 years where their hand wasn't forced? And yes, I know the denominator is important.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&rowcount=3&form1_rank=M, K, S&form2_rank=S2, K2&form2_year=1970-2022

Depends on what you consider hand forcing. There have been 7 banzuke in the past 16 years with HD ranks not caused by a falling ōzeki directly or indirectly:

  • Aki-Kyūshū 2006: M1w Rohō 10-5, promoted to K2w; M3w Aminishiki 11-4 JG, promoted to K2e. IMO this isn't a force, since they could have been M1e and M1w respectively in Kyūshū but the NSK decided to promote on a banzuke where all lower sanyaku went 8-7 or 9-6. This is a pretty close analogue to our current situation discounting the likely swap between Daieishō and Abi, because if they can demote Abi, another wild solution is to knock him out of sanyaku altogether in favour of either Kiribayama or Takanoshō.
  • Natsu-Aki 2011: This was all Kakuryū, forcing S2w with 12-3J from K1e and holding it for the next basho.
  • Hatsu-Haru 2014: Tochiōzan with 11-4 from K1w forcing S2w.
  • Aki-Kyūshū 2019: M1e Hokutofuji 9-6 to K1e, M2w Asanoyama with 10-5S to K2w. Arguable force by Hokutofuji and Asanoyama coming along for the ride, but 2019 has to be taken into context where we had a merry-go-round of falling and rising ōzeki all year. Takakeishō and Tochinoshin swapped O2e and S1w between them; if S1w had been free Abi and Endo would have slid up and over, giving Hokutofuji K1w, and Asanoyama likely left at M1e with a 10-5.
    • Only 2 rikishi in modern times have been left at M1e with 10 wins from M2: Kotoshōgiku in Kyūshu 2006 - Hatsu 2007 and Wakatakakage in Haru-Natsu 2021, in both cases because there wasn't a sanyaku vacancy. Oddly enough, in both cases, there was a 10-5 from M3 which might have co-forced HD K2, but the NSK didn't see fit to do so either, so is an 11-4 M4 stronger than a 10-5 M3 when it comes down to it?
  • Nagoya-Aki 2020: K1e Daieishō forcing S2e.
  • Hatsu-Haru 2021: M1w Daieishō forcing K2w with 13-2Y, but everyone thought he should have had sekiwake.

So we have four clear forces (and one banzuke with the continued result of the force) and 2 banzuke with double HD promotions which may or may not have been a force. The followup from Aki/Kyūshū 2019 also gives us a nice counterfactual as to what doesn't force, but obviously those are a lot harder to look for and to contextualise properly, since slots in lower sanyaku opening up would have rendered HD positions unnecessary.

I would initially argue that the combined effect of the two banzuke with HD promotions inclines ever so slightly to HD being the right solution for this banzuke, since a 10-5 M2 is stronger than a 9-6 M1, and a 11-4 M4 is equivalent to a 10-5 M2 purely "by the numbers". That said, it's not a hill I'm willing to die on, and my gut still warns me against a HD solution simply because it's so much relatively rarer. The pain of fitting in M9-12 for a HD banzuke is also a knock against the HD solution, but this is where knowing the shimpan's thought process would help: do they put the deserving rikishi in the right places and then fit everyone else around them, or do they try and spread around banzuke luck? My impression of their decision-making in the last few banzuke, with some headscratchers, seems to suggest the former rather than the latter.

Edited by Seiyashi

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Also, facetiously re the J6 pair: if we could check the name board in Isegahama beya, and find out if Nishikifuji is in makuuchi or not, that would help quite a bit. 

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Posted (edited)

I'm going with 3K. And Ouhou- Yutakayama both at 16. And Ryuuden up.

Edited by Kintamayama

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GTB Haiku number two:

Time flies while you sleep

Guess the Banzuke is here

Where is your entry?

 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Depends on what you consider hand forcing. There have been 7 banzuke in the past 16 years with HD ranks not caused by a falling ōzeki directly or indirectly:

I wouldn't count the extra Sekiwakes created when a Komusubi gets 11 wins and there's no open spot.  That's an entirely different situation to what we're looking at. 

Daieisho was not technically a forced hand; he could have gone to M1e.  Roho/Aminishiki was so long ago as to be irrelevant.

 

Edited by Gurowake

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31 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Daieisho was not technically a forced hand; he could have gone to M1e.

I'd say he counts as a forced hand in the same sense that a komusubi with 11+ wins forces open an extra sekiwake slot if needed. We have precedents which show that in the current era, 9 wins from M1w isn't enough to open a komusubi slot, and his case showed that 13 is. We don't have any direct evidence for 10-12, and might differ in our guesses as to where the line is.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Reonito said:

I'd say he counts as a forced hand in the same sense that a komusubi with 11+ wins forces open an extra sekiwake slot if needed. We have precedents which show that in the current era, 9 wins from M1w isn't enough to open a komusubi slot, and his case showed that 13 is. We don't have any direct evidence for 10-12, and might differ in our guesses as to where the line is.

I don't consider the 11 win Komusubi to be a forced hand either, but it is a recurring standard feature of banzuke movement that we have multiple occurrences on both sides of the line in the recent past to firmly establish where that line is.  It could theoretically be a judgment call every time, but we don't really know for sure.

I'm not sure why anyone's really considering the extra Komusubi option, other than it's what they think should happen as opposed to what the committee actually decides.  I think there's clear evidence that you need a much more compelling record to get a spot that's not forced.  If it's because of Ichinojo, well, there's no rule that guarantees Takanosho will end up ranked ahead of Kotonowaka; just ask Onosho. Plus there's the precedent of demoting the Juryo Covid-kosho one full rank.  There are multiple possibilities besides creating an extra Komusubi or two.  Those seem more likely to me at least.

Edited by Gurowake
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That said, I really wish they would open more Komusubi spots up given the lack of Yokozuna and Ozeki.  Not that they should strive to try to get 10 sanyaku every tournament, but simply make it easier to force extra spots in sanyaku that are sparsely populated, which doesn't seem to be a thing they consider.  Based on my criteria for promotion in RotoSumo, I would promote a 10-5 M2e with only 8 other sanyaku.  I would even promote a 10-5 M2w, but not a 10-5 M3e.   If there were only 7 other sanyaku, I'd even promote a 9-6 M1w.  I could provide a table, but the easiest one for me to produce would require a lot more explaining, and I don't want to translate it into something more understandable on its own.  I could take questions though...

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The only reason why I'm even semi-seriously considering the extra komusubi option is we have a new set of shimpan who seem to like mixing things up for no real good reason, which at least invites the possibility of HD komusubi back on the table. I agree, it's not very likely, and I have a draft that works perfectly well without HD komusubi (albeit feeling really bad for the three double digit KKs in the joi), which is probably what I am going to go with. But if banzuke day drops and we have 4 komusubi I will be kicking myself harder than for any other GTB so far.

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6 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

GTB Haiku number two:

Time flies while you sleep

Guess the Banzuke is here

Where is your entry?

 

I have submitted
But cannot sleep well, thinking of
two komusubi? Four?

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

 If there were only 7 other sanyaku, I'd even promote a 9-6 M1w.

This is actually one of the first things I looked at in the database. With a single exception, because why not have an exception (Asahikuni in Natsu 1974, when there were 12 sanyaku), 9-6 at M1w was otherwise a guaranteed promotion to sanyaku. All 9-6 records except that one were promoted to sanyaku - until we get to the most recent 3 cases of 9-6 at M1w, all of which went to M1e.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=M1w&form1_wins=9&form1_year=>1959

I would much prefer if they just started doing these kind of promotions again. Automatic promotion for 8-7 M1e, 9-6 M1w and 10-5 M2e seems like a no-brainer to me. It's mostly only in the last several years that these promotions don't happen and I don't think our sanyaku is better off for it.

Edited by Yarimotsu

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Posted (edited)

90% of the number of sanyaku questions only has significance in GTB.  In real life, it doesn't really matter much. The joi-jin has 16 slots.  Once you get below Ozeki, the ranks become a vertical line.  It doesn't really matter what you call the members of the line.

Edited by Asojima

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Asojima said:

90% of the number of sanyaku questions only has significance in GTB.  In real life, it doesn't really matter much. The joi-jin has 16 slots.  Once you get below Ozeki, the ranks become a vertical line.  It doesn't really matter what you call the members of the line.

I know what you mean, but for the sake of being pedantic, there's a salary difference, as well as who gets called up to get their face smashed in by yokozuna and ōzeki in the first week. Not that the ōzeki have been doing a lot of face smashing lately, though...

Oh, and also kinboshi differences. Tamawashi for one will be pretty happy not to be komusubi, not that I think he's eligible for even HD komusubi...

Edited by Seiyashi
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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I know what you mean, but for the sake of being pedantic, there's a salary difference, as well as who gets called up to get their face smashed in by yokozuna and ōzeki in the first week. Not that the ōzeki have been doing a lot of face smashing lately, though...

Oh, and also kinboshi differences. Tamawashi for one will be pretty happy not to be komusubi, not that I think he's eligible for even HD komusubi...

A salary difference, a hinkaku difference, a legacy difference, a future-job-prospects difference. All kinds of different differences exist between reaching lower sanyaku and not reaching it. Just because whatever your makuuchi rank is in the 3 tournaments before does not really seem to affect Ozeki promotions (is that your point @Asojima?) does not mean there are no tangible or lasting differences between Sekiwake, Komusubi and Maegashira 1 being achieved in any given tournament.

 

Edit: and of course, the oyakata considering the next banzuke are in the best position to be absolutely aware of those differences. They are making the conscious decision to have less komusubi and sekiwake than previous generations, for better or worse.

Edited by Yarimotsu
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48 minutes ago, Yarimotsu said:

Just because whatever your makuuchi rank is in the 3 tournaments before does not really seem to affect Ozeki promotions

For the purposes of the fight card, the joi more or less share the same opponents, and differ only in order. So being komusubi vs M1 just means whether you get your teeth kicked in by Terunofuji on shonichi vs Day 3.

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