Sumo Spiffy

Which Waka hypothetical is more likely?

Which Waka hypothetical is more likely?  

9 members have voted

  1. 1. Which Waka hypothetical is more likely?

    • Wakatakakage earns 12 wins in July and IS NOT promoted to ozeki
      6
    • Wakatakakage earns 11 wins in July and IS promoted to ozeki
      3


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Was laying in bed thinking about this earlier: 33 wins in three bashos is a guideline for ozeki promotion, but I recall seeing tachiai.org say that only about 70% of rikishi who meet this standard are promoted. Given the struggles of the current ozeki, it seems unlikely that Waka would be denied if he had another 12-win basho at sekiwake, but given his struggles early in Natsu, not impossible.

However, with Mitakeumi and Shodai both kadoban, I also wondered if the decision makers would be more likely to make an exception if he reached exactly 32 wins, on the basis that yes, he struggled, but he sorted himself out (evidenced by his turnaround in May and 11 wins in July), and one of those ozeki went MK again and lost rank. (Or both, but that seems unlikely unless Mitakeumi is genuinely hurt.) I realize what other ozeki do shouldn't matter for this decision, but it does feel like already having a dramatically inconsistent ozeki and a frequently injured one in the rank would make them cross their fingers if Wakatakakage looked in-form at 32 wins.

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I think this was my post on ozeki runs from a few years ago. The updated numbers are as follows. If we ask for 33 or more wins in the previous three basho, with the added requirements that the rank in the first basho must be M4 or higher, and that the win total in the last basho must be 10 or more, there have been 52 such runs, only seven of which (13%) did not lead to immediate promotion, Takakeisho being the most recent. I've been working on updating that post; I really should finish and publish it.

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12-9-11 is too weak for an ozeki promotion, even with the lax standards applied over the last ~10 years. After the 60s, the only rikishi to promoted with just 20 wins over the last two basho is Goeido, at which time he had 14 consecutive basho as sekiwake. W10e would have 3.

12-9-12 is borderline considering the 9-6 in the middle. If that happens, I don't think it's an automatic promotion.

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Kashunowaka said:

12-9-11 is too weak for an ozeki promotion, even with the lax standards applied over the last ~10 years. After the 60s, the only rikishi to promoted with just 20 wins over the last two basho is Goeido, at which time he had 14 consecutive basho as sekiwake. W10e would have 3.

12-9-12 is borderline considering the 9-6 in the middle. If that happens, I don't think it's an automatic promotion.

I would generally agree, but to me the wild card is the yusho. To my mind, it adds that extra bonus to make a 32 win run work (or even 31). See: Chiyotaikai, Musashimaru, and Onokuni who all had a single digit tournament in their run and less than 33 wins overall. I appreciate none had their yusho, douten, or jun-yusho in the first of the three tournaments, and the older precedents may not be all that persuasive, but it adds some weight to the argument the 33 win standard is flexible when there's that something extra. 

There's also Asanoyama, who had 32 and a jun-yusho, but all three tournaments being double digit wins. 

Edited by Tochinofuji
Further examples

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