Chartorenji

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

Think it's about that time. Will attempt this, but if a regular on this topic sees this correct me if I'm wrong on anything. 

 

Sanyaku Status 

 

 

(2) Mitakeumi O1 Shodai (x) 

                                 O2 Takakeisho (2)

(o) Wakatakakage  S Abi (o)                  

(1) Hoshoryu   K Daieisho (o)

         (x) Takayasu    M1 Ichinojo (COVID)

        (~) Kiribayama M2 Kotonowaka (2)

                                 M3 Tamawashi (x)

                                M4 Takanosho (1)

(2) Ura M6        

 

Makuuchi-Juryo 

 

(1) Takarafuji M7                        

-

                    (o) Oho M14 Yutakayama (o)    

(2) Azumaryu M15                       

        (x) Ishiura M16 Midorifuji (o) 

(x) Kotokuzan M17 Kagayaki (x)

-

(1) Chiyomaru J1 Hidenoumi (o)

                          J2 Tsurugisho (o)

                     J3 Ryuden (1) 

                          J4 Tohakuryu (2) 

                       J5 Daishoho (x)

                                               J6 Nishikifuji (2)                       

 

Juryo-Makushita

(1) Kitanowaka J5                            

-

(o) Shimazuumi J10 Bushozan (o)     

                            J11 Daishomaru (2)

  (x) Shohozan J12                             

(2) Chiyoarashi J13 Tochimaru (o)   

   (2) Takakento J14 Churanoumi (o) 

-

(x) Chiyonoumi Ms1 Nishikawa (o) 

        (~) Hokuseiho Ms2 Tsushimanada (x)

  (~) Chiyosakae Ms3 Hakuyozan (x) 

            (x) Roga Ms4 Kinbozan (~)   

(x) Kotoyusho Ms5 Kamito (x)    

-

(o) Oshoma Ms8                    

Edited by Chartorenji
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd like to think, with the way this basho is going, it's just too early to start this topic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Terunofuji wins the next two he could be a hot favourite by then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Waka and Abi would stay in san'yaku with 2 more wins. I think Yutakayama needs 2 wins for safety, and Takarafuji and Azumaryu would be on the bubble with 1 (though juryo contenders are not exactly beating down the door). Enho is definitely safe. Roga is mathematically alive, as are the two Ms5's, but a lot would have to happen for any of them to go up with a 4-3. The makushita promotion picture will get cleaned up quite a bit tomorrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I'd like to think, with the way this basho is going, it's just too early to start this topic.

I think it's about time. 2/3rds of the way through and we have some clear things that should happen.

 

Quote

Waka and Abi would stay in san'yaku with 2 more wins. I think Yutakayama needs 2 wins for safety, and Takarafuji and Azumaryu would be on the bubble with 1 (though juryo contenders are not exactly beating down the door). Enho is definitely safe. Roga is mathematically alive, as are the two Ms5's, but a lot would have to happen for any of them to go up with a 4-3. The makushita promotion picture will get cleaned up quite a bit tomorrow.

Updated. Planning on my main post being an active updated list of sorts. 

Edited by Chartorenji
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Squeaky bum time for lower jūryō, as upper makushita starts knocking on the door. Hokuseihō and Chiyosakae have just secured their KKs, Kinbōzan is 5-1 from one rank below, and Ōshoma might still be undeniable with a 6-0 and counting. And both Ms1s are 3-3 and might yet be contenders. So far only Shōhōzan and Daishōmaru are likely to go down, but a number of other rikishi better start winning fast (Chiyoarashi, Bushōzan, Kaisei).

Edited by Seiyashi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Squeaky bum time for lower jūryō, as upper makushita starts knocking on the door. Hokuseihō and Chiyosakae have just secured their KKs, Kinbōzan is 5-1 from one rank below, and Ōshoma might still be undeniable with a 6-0 and counting. And both Ms1s are 3-3 and might yet be contenders. So far only Shōhōzan and Daishōmaru are likely to go down, but a number of other rikishi better start winning fast (Chiyoarashi, Bushōzan, Kaisei).

I'm afraid I'll have to add the unfortunate Kitanowaka to that list at the end. In the last 50 years, no-one has won a single bout from J5 and remained in the salaried ranks. Sure the banzuke committee has been extra lenient on juryo demotions lately, but... now that he's rushing back, he better hope he wins one of his remaining bouts.


EDIT: Just checked and no J5 has had two wins since 1965 so there's really no possible comparison with recent examples. Gotta go by the numbers.

Edited by Koorifuu
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

According to the status list Kitanowaka is coming back

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Updated post Day 12. The biggest thing is there's a good chance that no Sanyaku switches happen. Unless Waka or Abi lose out, which seems unlikely, Hoshoryu and Daieisho would switch with them. 

 

Makushita and Juryo are also in a weird spot. Chiyonoumi won't move up, which makes room for Nishikawa and Oshoma, who both could take the first two spots up. Then, Kinbozan, Chiyosakae, and Kinbozan are in a weird rock paper scissors thing for who goes up 3rd, 4th, or 5th, which might not even open up. Of course, no spots are even open right now. Shohozan and Daishomaru are probably going down, with Chiyoarashi as a strong maybe. If Kitanowaka can't get a win, and Takakento can't get 2 wins, they would also go down, so we could legit have the 5 spots (also Churnoumi still needs one more win.) 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Chartorenji said:

Updated post Day 12. The biggest thing is there's a good chance that no Sanyaku switches happen. Unless Waka or Abi lose out, which seems unlikely, Hoshoryu and Daieisho would switch with them.

Takanosho could force open an extra slot, though there are no sufficiently recent precedents to know what it would take.

1 hour ago, Chartorenji said:

Makushita and Juryo are also in a weird spot. Chiyonoumi won't move up, which makes room for Nishikawa and Oshoma, who both could take the first two spots up. Then, Kinbozan, Chiyosakae, and Kinbozan are in a weird rock paper scissors thing for who goes up 3rd, 4th, or 5th, which might not even open up. Of course, no spots are even open right now. Shohozan and Daishomaru are probably going down, with Chiyoarashi as a strong maybe. If Kitanowaka can't get a win, and Takakento can't get 2 wins, they would also go down, so we could legit have the 5 spots (also Churnoumi still needs one more win.) 

Oshoma's case with a win should be strong enough to push down Shohozan, if that were the only option. The promotion order for any additional open slots ought to be Hokuseiho 5-2, Nishikawa 4-3, then either Chiyosakae 5-2 or Kinbozan 6-1, then Hokuseiho 4-3, C 4-3 or K 5-2. If somehow more slots opened, Roga might be in contention with a win; the demotion cases are likely to be borderline enough that the Ms5's are almost certainly out of luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hokuseiho over Nishikawa doesn't make total sense to me, but you know more then me. Would think if Hokuseiho was 6-1 then yeah but he would be equal to Nishikawa in promotion with  a 5-2 no? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Takanosho could force open an extra slot, though there are no sufficiently recent precedents to know what it would take.

Oshoma's case with a win should be strong enough to push down Shohozan, if that were the only option. The promotion order for any additional open slots ought to be Hokuseiho 5-2, Nishikawa 4-3, then either Chiyosakae 5-2 or Kinbozan 6-1, then Hokuseiho 4-3, C 4-3 or K 5-2. If somehow more slots opened, Roga might be in contention with a win; the demotion cases are likely to be borderline enough that the Ms5's are almost certainly out of luck.

According to the db, only seven rikishi have gone 7-0 at Ms8, none since 1995 (!). The Ms8w's went to ~J12, the Ms8e's to ~J8; no one has ever been denied Juryo [though the current committee may have an out: "Really?  Huh, our db doesn't go back before 2000."]

Now, 6-1 at Ms8 goes to Ms1-2 since 1992.

Also, Kitaharima at 7-0 would only be the second occurrence: first was none other than Kirinji (future Kitajin) in 1973, who landed at Ms2.  I don't think they'll be that generous this time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Chartorenji said:

Hokuseiho over Nishikawa doesn't make total sense to me, but you know more then me. Would think if Hokuseiho was 6-1 then yeah but he would be equal to Nishikawa in promotion with  a 5-2 no? 

I think an extra win counts for more than half a rank. Here's a reasonable precedent, though it's from a while ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

According to the db, only seven rikishi have gone 7-0 at Ms8, none since 1995 (!). The Ms8w's went to ~J12, the Ms8e's to ~J8; no one has ever been denied Juryo [though the current committee may have an out: "Really?  Huh, our db doesn't go back before 2000."]

This isn't a GTB "rule" but the almost absolute rule that a 7-0 from Ms15 or higher goes to jūryō, stat. There's only one violation of it that we know of, which was I think a MsTD toriteki winning a 7-0 in something like his second basho and maybe the banzuke committee saying "yeah we'll wait a bit". Turned out to be prophetic, because he never got to jūryō at the end of his career, and promoting him early would have been a Miyabiyama situation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

This isn't a GTB "rule" but the almost absolute rule that a 7-0 from Ms15 or higher goes to jūryō, stat. There's only one violation of it that we know of, which was I think a MsTD toriteki winning a 7-0 in something like his second basho and maybe the banzuke committee saying "yeah we'll wait a bit". Turned out to be prophetic, because he never got to jūryō at the end of his career, and promoting him early would have been a Miyabiyama situation.

That was entirely banzuke luck.  I'm pretty sure they would promote someone with a 7-0 at Ms15TD, but no one else has done it.  In the one case it happened, there were only 2 open slots and both Ms1s had a KK.  If it was auto-promote they'd have taken the 7-0 over the 4-3 Ms1w, but it's not.  It just means that they're most likely going to get a spot unless the committee thinks other people have a better claim.  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=200605#Ms

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Edited once more. We got more on Makuuchi-Juryo it seems, with 3 going down confirmed and 2 confirmed up. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

So we probably have two open slots in juryo already: Shohozan is definitely going down, and Chiyoarashi will probably not be under-demoted given Nishikawa's promotion case. Three others are in danger: Daishomaru, Kitanowaka, and Takakento. So that's at most 5 promotion slots. Oshoma should take the first. Then it's roughly as above: Hokuseiho 5-2, Nishikawa 4-3, then either Chiyosakae 5-2 or Kinbozan 6-1, then Hokuseiho 4-3, C 4-3 or K 5-2. All of them would be ahead of a 4-3 Roga and Ms5's, so they are now mathematically out and will need a KK just to stay in the promotion zone in July.

Looks like Hokuseiho gets his shot to clinch promotion tomorrow against Daishomaru. I assume Kinbozan and Chiyosakae will get their cracks at endangered juryo opponents on senshuraku.

Edited by Reonito

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Chartorenji said:

Edited once more. We got more on Makuuchi-Juryo it seems, with 3 going down confirmed and 2 confirmed up. 

Hidenoumi could yet end up behind Chiyomaru and Ryuden (at least) in the promotion queue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ozeki need updating. I think at this point only Kiribayama and Takanosho have a shot at san'yaku. Going to be crowded at M1 if they fully protect Ichinojo's rank!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Chartorenji said:

We got more on Makuuchi-Juryo it seems, with 3 going down confirmed and 2 confirmed up.

Not quite confirmed. Kagayaki still needs to lose once more. ;-)

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Hokuseiho wins tomorrow, he pushes down Daishomaru, so I guess Nishikawa goes up either way, either as second in line or as third but with 3 slots open.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Ozeki need updating. I think at this point only Kiribayama and Takanosho have a shot at san'yaku. Going to be crowded at M1 if they fully protect Ichinojo's rank!

Daieisho might be able to ease the crunch with 11 wins, assuming the sekiwake also play ball and finish KK.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Daieisho might be able to ease the crunch with 11 wins, assuming the sekiwake also play ball and finish KK.

Good point!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Abi loses out, does a 11-4 Daieisho leap frog a 8-7 or 9-6 Hoshoryu? Or is it some weird 3 Sekiwake thing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now