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Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

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13 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

It does need a very specific set of wins and losses, though, as all of the aforementioned maegashira losing will make keeping Ichinojo at M1 or M2e at worst much more palatable.

Well, we got exactly that specific set!

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6 hours ago, Hankegami said:

Since Ryuden failed to rack up enough wins to be promoted by numbers, I think the NSK will be faithful to their "no easy promotions" policy and save Azumaryuu's sorry longbottom. I predict that Shohozan, Ishiura, and Kagayaki will go down for Chiyomaru, Hidenoumi, and Tsurugisho. Ryuden at J1e and Nikishifuji at J1w given his yusho.

It's basically impossible to keep a 5-10 M15 in Makuuchi, unless there are absolutely no other options, and they have plenty.

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Who's going to be in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone next time? I'm going to assume Takakento gets exchanged with Chiyosakae; otherwise just swap the two.

Locks (in very rough order): J14e Takakento (7-8), Ms4w Kinbozan (5-2), Ms4e Roga (4-3), Ms6e Kanno (5-2), Ms10w Tomokaze (6-1), Ms5w Kamito (4-3), J11w Daishomaru (4-11), J1e Chiyonoumi (3-4).

That leaves two openings. The other demotions from Juryo, J12e Shohozan (3-12) and J13e Chiyoarashi (4-11), have borderline records, but I think they'll get precedence over the next-best available Makushita KKs, Ms8w Akiseyama (4-3) and Ms11w Tsukahara (5-2).

Corrections and opinions appreciated.

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37 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Who's going to be in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone next time? I'm going to assume Takakento gets exchanged with Chiyosakae; otherwise just swap the two.

Locks (in very rough order): J14e Takakento (7-8), Ms4w Kinbozan (5-2), Ms4e Roga (4-3), Ms6e Kanno (5-2), Ms10w Tomokaze (6-1), Ms5w Kamito (4-3), J11w Daishomaru (4-11), J1e Chiyonoumi (3-4).

That leaves two openings. The other demotions from Juryo, J12e Shohozan (3-12) and J13e Chiyoarashi (4-11), have borderline records, but I think they'll get precedence over the next-best available Makushita KKs, Ms8w Akiseyama (4-3) and Ms11w Tsukahara (5-2).

Corrections and opinions appreciated.

I guess I'd have Akiseyama then Chiyoarashi, and maybe switch Kinbozan and Takakento. 

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I must admit I've been hoping to see a yusho outcome like Daiamami/Nishikifuji's for a while, because so far the post-1997 playoff re-ranking rule has never been tested for two rikishi at the same numerical rank outside sanyaku, in any division. There have been 5 playoffs contested by rikishi at the same rank where one of them won the yusho*, but in all previous ones it was the East side guy as the winner.

* i.e. disregarding playoffs where both finished runner-up to somebody else, since those are of course irrelevant to the topic. The five playoffs: 2011.01 juryo, 2016.11 jonokuchi2017.01 jonidan, 2021.01 jonokuchi, 2021.05 jonokuchi

I do expect Daiamami to stay ahead of Nishikifuji, but there's no actual precedent to cite.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Who's going to be in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone next time? I'm going to assume Takakento gets exchanged with Chiyosakae; otherwise just swap the two.

Locks (in very rough order): J14e Takakento (7-8), Ms4w Kinbozan (5-2), Ms4e Roga (4-3), Ms6e Kanno (5-2), Ms10w Tomokaze (6-1), Ms5w Kamito (4-3), J11w Daishomaru (4-11), J1e Chiyonoumi (3-4).

That leaves two openings. The other demotions from Juryo, J12e Shohozan (3-12) and J13e Chiyoarashi (4-11), have borderline records, but I think they'll get precedence over the next-best available Makushita KKs, Ms8w Akiseyama (4-3) and Ms11w Tsukahara (5-2).

Same. I'd have it as:

Takakento (J14e 7-8)   Ms1  Kinbozan (Ms4w 5-2)
Kanno (Ms6e 5-2)       Ms2  Roga (Ms4e 4-3)
Tomokaze (Ms10w 6-1)   Ms3  Daishomaru (J11w 4-11)
Kamito (Ms5w 4-3)      Ms4  Chiyoarashi (J13e 4-11)
Chiyonoumi (Ms1e 3-4)  Ms5  Shohozan (J12e 3-12)

Coinflips on Ms2e/w and Ms3e/w, the others I'm feeling more confident about in their respective positions (which doesn't mean much).

Edited by Asashosakari
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After going 7-8 back in March and not moving ranking wise I'm hoping that Takakento gets some sort  of demotion.

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I guess if Shohozan bows out, he'll make room in the promotion zone for the youngster [checks notes] Akiseyama (Laughing...)

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49 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I guess if Shohozan bows out, he'll make room in the promotion zone for the youngster [checks notes] Akiseyama (Laughing...)

I don't know if that is true by the books, but it should be true!

When I checked the banzuke to see where Oshoma (Delgerbayar) landed, I noticed he was right across from Akiseyama, and up the block from Tomokaze. "Oh, no, those wily veterans are murder!  Well, if he can get by those guys, at least he's got a chance."  So at 6-0 he's matched up for the Yusho against ... the wily veteran Kitaharima.

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Looking ahead to the promotion picture for next basho with respect to the two Sekiwake. 

Wakatakakage: 12-3 Y, 9-6, ? - 21 wins over the last two tournaments, so the general 33 win guideline would suggest 12 wins would do it.  I don't see it happening with less; he might have a Yusho, but he doesn't have the longevity of Goeido in the top ranks yet to make it with only 32, plus 12-8-12 is probably better than 12-9-11 anyway, since 8 and 9 aren't really seen as that much different.

Daieisho: 8-7, 11-4, ? - 19 wins over the last two tournaments, so he'll need 14 wins to hit 33.  My guess is with a Yusho already to his name, a 13 win Yusho would probably do it as well, but probably not any lower win amount.  13 wins without the Yusho would still be pretty compelling, but my guess he they'd ask for 10 in Aki in that case to complete the promotion.

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2 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Looking ahead to the promotion picture for next basho with respect to the two Sekiwake. 

Wakatakakage: 12-3 Y, 9-6, ? - 21 wins over the last two tournaments, so the general 33 win guideline would suggest 12 wins would do it.  I don't see it happening with less; he might have a Yusho, but he doesn't have the longevity of Goeido in the top ranks yet to make it with only 32, plus 12-8-12 is probably better than 12-9-11 anyway, since 8 and 9 aren't really seen as that much different.

Daieisho: 8-7, 11-4, ? - 19 wins over the last two tournaments, so he'll need 14 wins to hit 33.  My guess is with a Yusho already to his name, a 13 win Yusho would probably do it as well, but probably not any lower win amount.  13 wins without the Yusho would still be pretty compelling, but my guess he they'd ask for 10 in Aki in that case to complete the promotion.

Probably also depends on how the kadoban ozeki fare.

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29 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Probably also depends on how the kadoban ozeki fare. 

You really think so?  I don't think any of the promotions recently have shown any bias either for or against additional Ozeki promotions.  If Takakeisho were also kadoban then they'd have to worry about having a second Yokozuna + Ozeki, but that's not an issue here.

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44 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

You really think so?  I don't think any of the promotions recently have shown any bias either for or against additional Ozeki promotions.  If Takakeisho were also kadoban then they'd have to worry about having a second Yokozuna + Ozeki, but that's not an issue here.

Terunofuji is looking pretty fragile, even for him, and Takakeisho wasn't exactly dominant. I don't think they'll really reach for a promotion, unless something catastrophic happens, but if it's a borderline case, it could factor in. We've only dropped to the minimum two Y/O once in the modern era, and only for a single basho.

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12 - 9 - 12 not enough, imho.
fusen, weak ozeki's, and refusal will not interrupt ozeki run. will continue on the same terms 9 - 12 - ??.
So he need 12-3Y or stronger...

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I am a toddler as a sumo fan so it's not like i have much knowledge with promotion stuff (for ozeki i only saw Teru repromotion and then Mita promotion) but i have a hard time seeing WTK denied with 12-9-12 if he manages to do that (i hope and think he can)

However, to add on Qwerry's point we can also remember that one of the 9 wins in Natsu was a mistake by judges (vs Takakeisho) and that his 12-3 yusho was without the current top guy, Yokozuna Terunofuji going kyujo before facing Wakatakakage. Dont know if that can be a factor tho, i know nothing (Laughing...)

 

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I'd say it all depends on how many Ozeki will be left after Nagoya. If both kadoban escape demotion, then 12-9-12 might not be enough, but with only Takakeisho still alive, he should be a shoo-in.

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New juryo interviews scheduled for this morning:

  • Oshoma
  • Chiyosakae
  • Nishikawa

(All are provisional. Confirmation will come in one hour or so)

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Inside Sport Japan said:

New juryo interviews scheduled for this morning:

  • Oshoma
  • Chiyosakae
  • Nishikawa

(All are provisional. Confirmation will come in one hour or so)

Hokuseiho? He has to be ahead of Chiyosakae at least. Or is he not on the list because he's been there before?

Edited by Reonito

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Yeah I imagine Hokuseiho isn't there because he'll be sai-juryo technically (despite only having fought one bout there) so they don't have the interview scheduled.

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51 minutes ago, Hidenotora said:

Yeah I imagine Hokuseiho isn't there because he'll be sai-juryo technically (despite only having fought one bout there) so they don't have the interview scheduled.

And I doubt that one bout matters; they'll treat Shiden the same way if he manages to make it back.

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The official site doesn't seem to have updated yet, but its all confirmed.
Nishikawa has a new shikona, Gounoyama, 豪ノ山, using the same kanji as the Gou in Goeido (or Goueidou hah).

Shin juryo:
- Gounoyama (former Nishikawa)
- Chiyosakae
- Oshoma

Sai juryo:
- Hokuseiho

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Hidenotora said:

 using the same kanji as the Gou in Goeido (or Goueidou hah).

Already seen on http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12690 who needed a shikona to start with since his real name is Kimura and I'm guessing that's not allowed as a shikona.

 

Edited by Gurowake

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5 minutes ago, Gurowake said:
15 minutes ago, Hidenotora said:

 using the same kanji as the Gou in Goeido (or Goueidou hah).

Already seen on http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12690 who needed a shikona to start with since his real name is Kimura and I'm guessing that's not allowed as a shikona.

That case is more ambiguous since his given name also contains Gō (but read Take as in Takekaze), but I wouldn't be surprised if Takekuma met the lad, got tickled that he shared a character in the given name, and felt an affinity strong enough to sign him up in partial jest. Nishikawa's the first unambiguous case of Takekuma's "signature" shikona kanji, though.

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4 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

That case is more ambiguous since his given name also contains Gō (but read Take as in Takekaze), but I wouldn't be surprised if Takekuma met the lad, got tickled that he shared a character in the given name, and felt an affinity strong enough to sign him up in partial jest. Nishikawa's the first unambiguous case of Takekuma's "signature" shikona kanji, though.

OK, maybe it's *slightly* ambiguous with only that case to look at, but it's basically not any more now that Takekuma has another rikishi given a shikona in that way right when he had a good reason to adopt one.

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3 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

OK, maybe it's *slightly* ambiguous with only that case to look at, but it's basically not any more now that Takekuma has another rikishi given a shikona in that way right when he had a good reason to adopt one.

Yeah, it's definitely open and shut now, especially now that Oshiogawa has disambiguated itself by using Kaze as a prefix trademark (instead of the same Gō/Take kanji even though it would probably have been pronounced differently).

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