Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

[Reonito 1,189]

37 minutes ago, Chartorenji said:

If Abi loses out, does a 11-4 Daieisho leap frog a 8-7 or 9-6 Hoshoryu? Or is it some weird 3 Sekiwake thing

11 wins at komusubi has historically always been enough to create a 3rd sekiwake slot if needed. But yes, if Abi loses out, the komusubi with the better record ought to take his spot.

Edited May 21, 2022 by Reonito

[Ryoshishokunin 242]

Can I say that editing the head post is *much* worse than posting a new summary each day?  It erases the historical record, it means you can't catch up on this thread, and it also doesn't work with the forum's "go to most recent unread post" option, instead having to go back to page one which is otherwise not of interest.  

[Hakuryuho 320]

6 hours ago, Chartorenji said:

If Abi loses out, does a 11-4 Daieisho leap frog a 8-7 or 9-6 Hoshoryu? Or is it some weird 3 Sekiwake thing

He probably does, must be so annoying for Hoshoryu; getting your KK twice at Komusubi and not attaining promotion to the next tier

[Seiyashi 4,059]

1 hour ago, Hakuryuho said:

He probably does, must be so annoying for Hoshoryu; getting your KK twice at Komusubi and not attaining promotion to the next tier

Abi got stuck at komusubi for three basho straight with a KK before finally blowing it with a 4-11. He was overtaken by a K2 Asanoyama in one, and roadblocked by falling ozeki in the other two. 

Besides, the lesson to Hosh surely is, if you don't want to rely on banzuke luck, better get that 11.

[Gurowake 3,788]

Sanyaku:

The only way there will be an open spot is if Daieisho and Abi both win to force a 3rd Sekiwake.  Takanosho is the front runner for that spot, but could lose it to Kiribayama if the former loses and latter wins.  None of these rikishi face each other.  If Abi wins and Daieisho loses, then the only change in Sanyaku might be the order, but they have shown that they don't reorder Sekiwake based on record, so will they reorder the Komusubi?  The order of the Sekiwake is entirely irrelevant to Ozeki promotion, while Komusubi order is relevant to Sekiwake promotion, so there's an argument that they will reorder Komusubi even if not Sekiwake.  If Abi loses then Daieisho will take his place as Sekiwake regardless of Daieisho's (and Hoshoryu's) result.

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

Ishiura, Kagayaki, Kotokuzan, and Azumaryu are demotable, and there's no one on the bubble.  Azumaryu might survive if there's not enough pressure, even if he loses if there's really not enough pressure.  The other three have no hope to survive.  If there's tons of pressure then Yutakayama or even Oho might get overdemoted if they lose.  For the former, their target location if they lose might disappear if the extra sanyaku slot opens, but that's usually not a consideration when deciding divisional movements.

Chiyomaru, Hidenoumi, Tsurugisho, and Ryuden all have promotable records, and the first three should get in regardless; Tsusgisho's record clearly isn't going to be passed, and the first two are KK at J1 without there being others that really need the spots more, so they should go up.  The remaining two candidates, Daiamami and Nishikifuji, need wins and a loss by Ryuden to get promoted instead of the latter, with Daiamami clearly being first in line.  None of these rikishi face each other.

Juryo <-> Makushita

Chiyoarashi, Shohozan, and Daishomaru are all demotable with little hope to survive.  Takakento and Kitanowaka are on the bubble, but with how high Kitanowaka is ranked he might get a reprieve from the numbers-based movement as tends to happen with very bad records, and his returning to the tournament and winning at least one match may help his cause.

Hokuseiho, Nishikawa, and Oshoma appear to be guaranteed promotions.  The remaining slots might go to Chiyosakae and/or Kinbonzan.  Chiyosakae is probably first in line, and will be the opponent of Takakento, so it looks like that's a straight exchange bout.  Thus Kinbozan could only be replacing Kitanowaka, and look at that, they're also matched up, so that looks like a straight exchange bout too, but I'm not so sure the torikumi commitee and banzuke committee are the same people, and they might just end up keeping Kitanowaka even if he loses.

 

On an unrelated note, Ura's withdrawal has led to a lucky 8th match for Tsushimanada to fill in the sekitori schedule.

Edited May 21, 2022 by Gurowake

[Sumo Spiffy 466]

33 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Sanyaku:

If Abi wins and Daieisho loses, then the only change in Sanyaku might be the order, but they have shown that they don't reorder Sekiwake based on record, so will they reorder the Komusubi?  The order of the Sekiwake is entirely irrelevant to Ozeki promotion, while Komusubi order is relevant to Sekiwake promotion, so there's an argument that they will reorder Komusubi even if not Sekiwake.  If Abi loses then Daieisho will take his place as Sekiwake regardless of Daieisho's (and Hoshoryu's) result.

(......)

Chiyoarashi, Shohozan, and Daishomaru are all demotable with little hope to survive.  Takakento and Kitanowaka are on the bubble, but with how high Kitanowaka is ranked he might get a reprieve from the numbers-based movement as tends to happen with very bad records, and his returning to the tournament and winning at least one match may help his cause.

First part: If 11 wins will force open an extra sekiwake slot, the only way there would be a reason/temptation to flip the komusubi is in the precise situation of K1E having 8 wins and K1W having 10 wins with no open sekiwake slots. I don't know how to use sumodb's query function to look for certain criteria across multiple people in the same basho, but I did flick through the banzukes since 2000, and I didn't find any situations where just those specific win criteria are met, so it seems quite possible that if this scenario occurs, it would be for the first time.

That said, I don't think they would flip the komusubi, on the basis if it being a really unnecessary complication. It doesn't affect the rikishis' pay, and they've already shown they'll move the K1W to sekiwake ahead of K1E if he has a substantially better record. If the komusubi were going on an ozeki run, they'd need 11 wins at some point, which would push them to sekiwake regardless of what else happens at either rank. Since, as I understand it, a wrestler technically only needs to be sekiwake for the final tournament of the three in their ozeki run, the situations where someone could get screwed by being stuck at K1W with that two-win gap over K1E in a given basho are so hyper-specific that it seems not worth the trouble of explaining why they were flipped.

Second part: A question: Chiyonokuni and Ishiura also came back and snagged one more win in March, and it didn't seem to help their standings on the banzuke at all. Would the committee be kinder to Kitanowaka because it's a whole salary on the line and not just salary level?

[Tigerboy1966 1,287]

14 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Chiyonokuni and Ishiura also came back and snagged one more win in March, and it didn't seem to help their standings on the banzuke at all.

I have to disagree about Ishiura. His extra win in March meant that he was certain to keep his place in maku'uchi. So when he takes May out to recover fully he comes back in July in juryo, rather than makushita. It was a gamble with his long-term health admittedly, but that's not exactly unheard of in this game.

[Sumo Spiffy 466]

2 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I have to disagree about Ishiura. His extra win in March meant that he was certain to keep his place in maku'uchi. So when he takes May out to recover fully he comes back in July in juryo, rather than makushita. It was a gamble with his long-term health admittedly, but that's not exactly unheard of in this game.

I'm not saying the extra wins didn't keep them higher than they would have been without those wins; I'm saying it didn't cause the banzuke committee to show any mercy. (I can see how my statement doesn't necessarily put that across, so my bad there.) Ishiura would have been basically 50/50 to stay in makuuchi with one win, whereas it was close to guaranteed with two. Chiyonokuni really needed two more wins; I have to imagine he thought he could get them and then just didn't. 

[Chartorenji 235]

7 hours ago, Ryoshishokunin said:

Can I say that editing the head post is *much* worse than posting a new summary each day?  It erases the historical record, it means you can't catch up on this thread, and it also doesn't work with the forum's "go to most recent unread post" option, instead having to go back to page one which is otherwise not of interest.  

I thought it would be more easier and wouldn't clog up all the posts, but you are right. 

Sanyaku Status 

 

 

(x) Mitakeumi O1 Shodai (x) 

                                 O2 Takakeisho (1)

(o) Wakatakakage  S Abi (o)                  

(o) Hoshoryu   K Daieisho (o)

         (x) Takayasu    M1 Ichinojo (COVID)

        (~) Kiribayama M2 Kotonowaka (x)

                                  M3 Tamawashi (x)

                                 M4 Takanosho (~)

(x) Ura M6        

 

Makuuchi-Juryo 

 

(o) Takarafuji M7                        

-

                    (o) Oho M14 Yutakayama (~)    

 (x) Azumaryu M15                       

        (x) Ishiura M16 Midorifuji (o) 

(x) Kotokuzan M17 Kagayaki (x)

-

(1) Chiyomaru J1 Hidenoumi (o)

                          J2 Tsurugisho (o)

                     J3 Ryuden (o) 

                          J4 Tohakuryu (x) 

                       J5 Daishoho (x)

                                          (1)   Daiamami   J6 Nishikifuji (1)                                               

 

Juryo-Makushita

(~) Kitanowaka J5                             

-

(o) Shimazuumi J10 Bushozan (o)     

                            J11 Daishomaru (x)

  (x) Shohozan J12                             

(x) Chiyoarashi J13 Tochimaru (o)   

   (1) Takakento J14 Churanoumi (o) 

-

(x) Chiyonoumi Ms1 Nishikawa (o) 

        (o) Hokuseiho Ms2 Tsushimanada (x)

  (~) Chiyosakae Ms3 Hakuyozan (x) 

            (x) Roga Ms4 Kinbozan (~)   

(x) Kotoyusho Ms5 Kamito (x)    

-

(o) Oshoma Ms8                    

[Tigerboy1966 1,287]

7 hours ago, Ryoshishokunin said:

Can I say that editing the head post is *much* worse than posting a new summary each day?  It erases the historical record, it means you can't catch up on this thread, and it also doesn't work with the forum's "go to most recent unread post" option, instead having to go back to page one which is otherwise not of interest.  

You should ask to speak to the manager an demand a refund while you're at it.

[Chartorenji 235]

3 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

You should ask to speak to the manager an demand a refund while you're at it.

it's fine. I'm relatively new to the forum, so the feedback is fine even if it comes off rude to others. Hell I still get told shit on r/sumo even though I've been posting their for over a year, rather take it as advice then get mad

[Jakusotsu 5,498]

And right you are. @Ryoshishokunin wasn't rude at all, just giving advice.

[Seiyashi 4,059]

3 hours ago, Chartorenji said:

it's fine. I'm relatively new to the forum, so the feedback is fine even if it comes off rude to others. Hell I still get told shit on r/sumo even though I've been posting their for over a year, rather take it as advice then get mad

Off topic, but Reddit is... Reddit, shall we say. I'm involved in a very civil and topic focused sub and even then you still get wackos once in a while. Some people's unfamiliarity with English also doesn't help. 

[Katooshu 2,957]

In the time I've been watching sumo I don't think I've seen a makushita rikishi compete so high in the juryo schedule before.

[chishafuwaku 464]

52 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

In the time I've been watching sumo I don't think I've seen a makushita rikishi compete so high in the juryo schedule before.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Results.aspx?b=200905&amp;d=15

Ms1w Kitazakura 4-3

uwatedashinage 1-1 (2-1)

J4w Kotokuni 3-12

 

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Results.aspx?b=199809&amp;d=15

Ms1w Hokutohikari 5-2

oshidashi 2-1

J5w Kushimaumi 4-11

Edited May 22, 2022 by chishafuwaku

[Seiyashi 4,059]

24 minutes ago, chishafuwaku said:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Results.aspx?b=200905&amp;d=15

Ms1w Kitazakura 4-3

uwatedashinage 1-1 (2-1)

J4w Kotokuni 3-12

 

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Results.aspx?b=199809&amp;d=15

Ms1w Hokutohikari 5-2

oshidashi 2-1

J5w Kushimaumi 4-11

Those two are really deep holes, though, arguably plausible to force down that rikishi had he lost. As it was, that was Kushimaumi's last basho and bout; he went to Ms1e the basho after and retired without fighting that basho, and Kotokuni landed at J14e and would probably have been demoted had he lost.

Since it seems to be traditionalists back in the shimpan committee, I think it's safe to say Kitanowaka had better win if he still wants his salary next basho.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Seiyashi

[maglor 120]

11 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

First part: If 11 wins will force open an extra sekiwake slot, the only way there would be a reason/temptation to flip the komusubi is in the precise situation of K1E having 8 wins and K1W having 10 wins with no open sekiwake slots. I don't know how to use sumodb's query function to look for certain criteria across multiple people in the same basho, but I did flick through the banzukes since 2000, and I didn't find any situations where just those specific win criteria are met, so it seems quite possible that if this scenario occurs, it would be for the first time.

That said, I don't think they would flip the komusubi, on the basis if it being a really unnecessary complication. It doesn't affect the rikishis' pay, and they've already shown they'll move the K1W to sekiwake ahead of K1E if he has a substantially better record. If the komusubi were going on an ozeki run, they'd need 11 wins at some point, which would push them to sekiwake regardless of what else happens at either rank. Since, as I understand it, a wrestler technically only needs to be sekiwake for the final tournament of the three in their ozeki run, the situations where someone could get screwed by being stuck at K1W with that two-win gap over K1E in a given basho are so hyper-specific that it seems not worth the trouble of explaining why they were flipped.

Second part: A question: Chiyonokuni and Ishiura also came back and snagged one more win in March, and it didn't seem to help their standings on the banzuke at all. Would the committee be kinder to Kitanowaka because it's a whole salary on the line and not just salary level?

You just missed it, it happened in 1998.

This is the way I search: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&amp;form1_rank=K1e, K1w&amp;form1_wins=8, 10&amp;offset=250 though it does require a bit of manual searching through.

Edited May 22, 2022 by maglor

[Reonito 1,189]

How do we feel about Takanosho forcing an extra komusubi slot if he has 12 wins? Would it make any difference if it's a yusho? We know 11 from as high as M3 hasn't been enough recently, but we don't have recent precedents for 12.

[Seiyashi 4,059]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

How do we feel about Takanosho forcing an extra komusubi slot if he has 12 wins? Would it make any difference if it's a yusho? We know 11 from as high as M3 hasn't been enough recently, but we don't have recent precedents for 12.

His chances might be good since it seems to be traditionalists back in charge at the shimpan committee. Daieishō not getting Komusubi with 11 and a yushō was something quite unprecedented, if I remember correctly, and caused quite a kerfuffle for that round of GTB (although I seem to also remember some more established players saying they weren't entirely surprised).

[Reonito 1,189]

5 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

His chances might be good since it seems to be traditionalists back in charge at the shimpan committee. Daieishō not getting Komusubi with 11 and a yushō was something quite unprecedented, if I remember correctly, and caused quite a kerfuffle for that round of GTB (although I seem to also remember some more established players saying they weren't entirely surprised).

He got komusubi with a 13-2 yusho from M1; everyone expected sekiwake.

[Reonito 1,189]

12 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Chiyomaru, Hidenoumi, Tsurugisho, and Ryuden all have promotable records, and the first three should get in regardless; Tsusgisho's record clearly isn't going to be passed, and the first two are KK at J1 without there being others that really need the spots more, so they should go up.

Unlike J1e, I don't think J1w enjoys special status. Ryuden with a win would be clearly ahead of Hidenoumi with a loss.

[Seiyashi 4,059]

10 minutes ago, Reonito said:

He got komusubi with a 13-2 yusho from M1; everyone expected sekiwake.

I sit corrected but yeah, that underpromotion was exactly what I was referring to.

I think at the very least 12 with the yushō should net Takanoshō komusubi. It might depend on Daieishō's performance though: if he also goes 11, then he vacates a komusubi slot if Abi doesn't also lose and Takanoshō might have to settle for that if the NSK doesn't feel like paying for 4 sekiwake. With Takayasu bombing and Kiribayama doing well but not brilliant (certainly not enough to force extra slots), there's just enough space in the rest of the joi for a spread of underpromotions...? 

Edited May 22, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 1,189]

8 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I sit corrected but yeah, that underpromotion was exactly what I was referring to.

I think at the very least 12 with the yushō should net Takanoshō komusubi. It might depend on Daieishō's performance though: if he also goes 11, then he vacates a komusubi slot if Abi doesn't also lose and Takanoshō might have to settle for that if the NSK doesn't feel like paying for 4 sekiwake. With Takayasu bombing and Kiribayama doing well but not brilliant (certainly not enough to force extra slots), there's just enough space in the rest of the joi for a spread of underpromotions...? 

I haven't tried to work it out yet, but Ichinojo could throw a wrench in the works.

[Gurowake 3,788]

19 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Unlike J1e, I don't think J1w enjoys special status. Ryuden with a win would be clearly ahead of Hidenoumi with a loss.

Sure, Ryuden would be ahead of him.  My point at the time was that it didn't seem likely that an 11-4 J6 would go up at the expense of a 8-7 J1w despite the J6 having better numbers.  However, I now realize that's probably wrong.  They are much more reluctant to promote 11-4 J7s, but an 11-4 J6 goes up much more often, and 8-7 J1w misses a reasonable amount, so maybe the 11-4 J6 from either side is better than 8-7 J1w in the promotion queue, as the numbers would generally suggest.  But it's also clear that despite a 8-7 J1 being equivalent by the numbers to a 11-4 J7, the former is much more likely to get promoted.  This might trickle up a little to J6, but it doesn't seem nearly as common.

[Seiyashi 4,059]

27 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I haven't tried to work it out yet, but Ichinojo could throw a wrench in the works.

Depending on how well everyone else does, there's the possibility of dropping him to M2 or M3. Isegahama has said last time that such rikishi's ranks depends on the requirements of the rest of the banzuke and how to be fair to the rikishi. I interpret that to mean that they will not cause any changes in the rikishi's salary status and will try not to disadvantage him too far in terms of having to "fight back" from the next bashō, but it does not always equal an absolute freeze when the dictates of the banzuke necessitate otherwise. Perhaps nowhere else is this more obvious than in the joi where there is a high amount of pressure against a tougher ceiling. If Takanosho ends without the sanyaku slot on 11 and no yushō, Ichinojō will most likely have to go down a rank or two, or one of Kiribayama or Takanoshō (and possibly even others) will have to eat a huge amount of bad banzuke luck.

To flesh that out a bit: let's say Abi wins and Daieishō doesn't to lock lower sanyaku as it is (or at most with a swap between Hōshōryū and Daieishō, but that's immaterial for present purposes). Kiribayama, Kotonowaka, and Tamawashi win, but Takanoshō doesn't to leave him at 11 without the yushō for sure. That gives us a 10-5 M2, 9-6 M2 and M3, and 11-4 M4 with no possibility of sanyaku promotion, and Kiribayama and Kotonowaka would ideally need to go up one rank each minimum, leaving a theoretical joi of Kiribayama, Kotonowaka, Takanosho and Tamawashi (and already some underdemotion in this scenario), with no obvious place for Ichinojō. The two solutions to this are to open a komusubi slot anyway for Takanoshō, or to demote Ichinojō to M3, where there at least isn't that much pressure from the rest of the banzuke (Ura and Wakamotoharu are the only hard chargers from M6, but everyone else doesn't have that great results either. Seeing as the NSK isn't very enthusiastic about opening odd slots if they don't have to, demoting Ichinojō where he isn't really prejudiced in a major way is probably the easier option to take.

It does need a very specific set of wins and losses, though, as all of the aforementioned maegashira losing will make keeping Ichinojo at M1 or M2e at worst much more palatable.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Seiyashi