Yamanashi

Kabu-worthy Sekitori

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Sorry if this has been compiled already.  Also, please move it to where it needs to be ...

As far as I can tell, the current rules for being eligible for toshiyori status are :

1) have at least one basho as San'yaku;

2) have at least 20 basho in Makuuchi;

3) have at least 30 basho as Sekitori (Makuuchi + Juryo)

Based upon the current banzuke, there are

4 rikishi eligible under criterion 1 only (Wakatakakage, Hoshoryu, Kiribayama and Takanosho),

7 rikishi eligible under criterion 3 only (Terutsuyoshi, Azumaryu, Daiamami, Akiseyama, Chiyonoo, Fujiazuma and Kyukutaisei),

and 16 eligible under all three criteria.

A total of 40 rikishi are eligible to look for a kabu (Endo and Okinoumi already own one, according to the db).  Of course, there aren't enough to go around.

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Two things, how do you get 40 from your numbers which add up to 27, and shouldn't you exclude those like Tochinoshin, Hoshoryu and Kiribayama who are foreign nationals not known to have Japanese citizenship? 

While there aren't enough kabu for sure, it would also be quite interesting to see just how wide the gulf is. I get the impression quite a number of kabu are going to be freed up in the next few years. 

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I'm not sure what the purpose of this thread is.  That is, I can't find a thesis statement in the opening post that the information you provided tends to support.  You don't seem to be actually compiling the list, only counting, and I don't see any particular request for more information.  You apparently have a list of eligible rikishi, but you haven't provided it.  If you are going to show such a list for the edification of others, you should include Japanese citizenship status, birth date, and current rank.  All of those have influence on whether and when a kabu will be needed.

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This is how I did it: I looked for Career high in Makuuchi down to J1 (I may have missed someone who spent 31 basho in Juryo only).  There were 60 candidates

 

                                    High     Mak.    Juryo   Sekit.   San-     20        30

rikishi                          rank     basho  basho  basho  yaku?  Mak.?  Sek.?

Wakatakakage             S          13        11        24        1                     

Abi                               S          20        10        30        1          1          1

Hoshoryu                    K          11        4          15        1                     

Daieisho                      S          37        10        47        1          1          1

Ichinojo                       S          43        5          48        1          1          1

Kiribayama                  K          14        5          19        1                     

Kotonowaka                M2       12        5          17                               

Hokutofuji                   K          33        2          35        1          1          1

Tamawashi                  S          76        9          85        1          1          1

Endo                            K          51        2          53        1          1          1

Takanosho                  S          17        10        27        1                     

Onosho                       K          29        14        43        1          1          1

Tobizaru                      M2       11        15        26                               

Ura                              M1       11        10        21                               

Wakamotoharu          M6       3          12        15                               

Takarafuji                    S          62        7          69        1          1          1

Kotoeko                      M4       20        17        37                    1          1

Shimanoumi                M3       18        8          26                               

Terutsuyoshi               M3       19        12        31                                1

Kotoshoho                  M3       7          8          15                               

Okinoumi                    S          71        6          77        1          1          1

Nishikigi                      M2       25        17        42                    1          1

Aoiyama                      S          62        3          65        1          1          1

Chiyoshoma                M2       27        11        38                    1          1

Myogiryu                     S          60        6          66        1          1          1

Sadanoumi                  M1       40        18        58                    1          1

Chiyotairyu                 K          55        7          62        1          1          1

Meisei                         S          21        10        31        1          1          1

Yutakayama                M1       24        9          33                    1          1

Azumaryu                    M14     8          44        52                                1

Ichiyamamoto             M14     5          6          11                               

Ishiura                         M5       26        17        43                    1          1

Midorifuji                    M10     4          9          13                               

Kagayaki                      M3       35        10        45                    1          1

Chiyomaru                  M5       29        23        52                    1          1

Hidenoumi                  M6       12        33        45                                1

Chiyonokuni                M1       34        18        52                    1          1

Tsurugisho                  M7       9          29        38                                1

Mitoryu                       J1         0          26        26                               

Ryuden                        K          20        11        31        1          1          1

Akua                            M10     6          11        17                               

Daishoho                     M9       5          19        24                               

Daiamami                    M11     10        22        32                                1

Enho                            M4       9          14        23                               

Yago                            M10     4          19        23                               

Tokushoryu                 M2       32        30        62                    1          1

Kaisei                           S          60        10        70        1          1          1

Daishomaru                M5       19        22        41                                1

Shohozan                    K          51        17        68        1          1          1

Akiseyama                   M12     4          38        42                                1

Tomokaze                   M3       5          4          9                                 

Jokoryu                       K          15        17        32        1                      1

Chiyonoo                     M14     4          39        43                                1

Nionoumi                    M16     1          12        13                               

 Kitaharima                 M15     1          25        26                               

Fujiazuma                   M4       17        21        38                                1

Amakaze                     M13     1          18        19                               

Kyokutaisei                 M8       4          34        38                                1

Yoshiazuma                 M12     3          18        21                               

Kagamio                      M9       7          14        21                               

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I haven't flagged Japanese citizenship status because I'm only considering eligibility by record; it doesn't seem to me that I should keep Aoiyama off this list from January 2015 until March 2022 when he received Japanese citizenship.

My purpose was to celebrate the end of semester and cessation of 12 hours a day of grading.  Also, the forum chatter about Kaisei made me wonder about how big the potential input end of the supply chain might be.

I had forgotten that the best way to get on the list for consideration was to simply have a meteoric rise to Komosubi, then hang around to get thirty basho as a sekitori to pad your resume (I'm thinking about Jokoryu, who maxed at Komosubi, but has never been ranked at M1, M2 or M3).

My first impression was that there are more of these guys than I thought.

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Oh, I didn't count anyone who had been Ozeki, because they were obvious.

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6 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Oh, I didn't count anyone who had been Ozeki, because they were obvious.

I would argue that they should be included on your list, as they may well be more likely to get a kabu.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Oh, I didn't count anyone who had been Ozeki, because they were obvious.

Obvious or not, for completeness they should still go in. 4 of them is still a significant number especially since they're in the priority queue for kabu if they want it (although I don't see anyone champing at the bit to give Shōdai one), which further depresses the available supply.

EDIT: whoops, doubleposted in effect...

EDIT 2: Terunofuji most likely has dibs on Ajigawa once ex-Aminishiki succeeds to the Isegahama name. Takakeishō is almost certainly in line for Tokiwayama, although he has three years as a jun-toshiyori if he happens to retire early. Mitakeumi is Dewanoumi's golden boy and is probably in line for that too, and the only one that doesn't look like he has or deserves a kabu is Shōdai.

It's also possible Takakeishō might negotiate a swap for either Fujishima or Hatachiyama, since he has some connection to the previous holders of those kabu, but that's way more far out than just simply inheriting Tokiwayama.

Edited by Seiyashi

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8 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Obvious or not, for completeness they should still go in. 4 of them is still a significant number especially since they're in the priority queue for kabu if they want it (although I don't see anyone champing at the bit to give Shōdai one), which further depresses the available supply.

EDIT: whoops, doubleposted in effect...

Actually: Mitakeumi, Takakeisho, Shodai, Takayasu, Tochinoshin (foreign devil:-P).

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2 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:
13 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Obvious or not, for completeness they should still go in. 4 of them is still a significant number especially since they're in the priority queue for kabu if they want it (although I don't see anyone champing at the bit to give Shōdai one), which further depresses the available supply.

EDIT: whoops, doubleposted in effect...

Actually: Mitakeumi, Takakeisho, Shodai, Takayasu, Tochinoshin (foreign devil:-P).

Heh, right, forgot those two. Technically there's also Asanoyama.

Giving the three ex-ōzeki a quick lookover, Tochinoshin doesn't need a kabu (at least not that we currently know of), Takayasu might get Tagonoura, and Asanoyama probably gets Takasago sooner or later if he completes his rehabilitation. They're a lot less certain to get one compared to Terunofuji, Takakeishō, and Mitakeumi, though.

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Just now, Seiyashi said:

Heh, right, forgot those two. Technically there's also Asanoyama.

Giving the three ex-ōzeki a quick lookover, Tochinoshin doesn't need a kabu (at least not that we currently know of), Takayasu might get Tagonoura, and Asanoyama probably gets Takasago sooner or later if he completes his rehabilitation. They're a lot less certain to get one compared to Terunofuji, Takakeishō, and Mitakeumi, though.

That could be; I am completely swamped when it comes to the kabu wheeling and dealing because of my nonexistent Nihongo-worthiness.  Of course, one can look at the kabu list in the db and see who is near 70 when they can't fight off retirement anymore, and it's more likely a kabu will be passed on to a heya member if possible.

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You should also include Kakuryu in any list of potential kabu holders, since he'll need one eventually.

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I love the idea of a thread tracking who is already and who is close to eligible and what the gaps are. 

For the sake of completeness, below is everybody who is active in Natsu 2022 with a high rank in sekitori. I have included nationality status as best as I can ascertain, feel free to correct me.

Those highlighted blue qualify via sanyaku (I haven't bothered checking their basho totals).

Highlighted green are 20+ basho as makuuchi.

Highlighted yellow are 30+ basho as sekitori.

Rikishi Heya JP Citizen Shusshin Highest Rank M Basho J Basho Total
Terunofuji Isegahama Yes Mongolia Yokozuna      
Asanoyama Takasago Yes Toyama Ozeki      
Mitakeumi Dewanoumi Yes Nagano Ozeki      
Shodai Tokitsukaze Yes Kumamoto Ozeki      
Takakeisho Tokiwayama Yes Hyogo Ozeki      
Takayasu Tagonoura Yes Ibaraki Ozeki      
Abi Shikoroyama Yes Saitama Sekiwake      
Aoiyama Kasugano Yes Bulgaria Sekiwake      
Daieisho Oitekaze Yes Saitama Sekiwake      
Ichinojo Minato Yes Mongolia Sekiwake      
Kaisei Oshima Yes Brazil Sekiwake      
Meisei Tatsunami Yes Kagoshima Sekiwake      
Myogiryu Sakaigawa Yes Hyogo Sekiwake      
Okinoumi Hakkaku Yes Shimane Sekiwake      
Takanosho Tokiwayama Yes Chiba Sekiwake      
Takarafuji Isegahama Yes Aomori Sekiwake      
Wakatakakage Arashio Yes Fukushima Sekiwake      
Chiyotairyu Kokonoe Yes Tokyo Komusubi      
Endo Oitekaze Yes Ishikawa Komusubi      
Hokutofuji Hakkaku Yes Saitama Komusubi      
Jokoryu Kise Yes Tokyo Komusubi      
Onosho Onomatsu Yes Aomori Komusubi      
Ryuden Takadagawa Yes Yamanashi Komusubi      
Shohozan Hanaregoma Yes Fukuoka Komusubi      
Chiyonokuni Kokonoe Yes Mie Maegashira 1 34 18 52
Sadanoumi Sakaigawa Yes Kumamoto Maegashira 1 40 18 58
Yutakayama Tokitsukaze Yes Niigata Maegashira 1 24 9 33
Nishikigi Isenoumi Yes Iwate Maegashira 2 25 17 42
Tokushoryu Kise Yes Nara Maegashira 2 32 30 62
Kagayaki Takadagawa Yes Ishikawa Maegashira 3 35 10 45
Kotoeko Sadogatake Yes Miyazaki Maegashira 4 20 17 37
Chiyomaru Kokonoe Yes Kagoshima Maegashira 5 29 23 52
Ishiura Miyagino Yes Tottori Maegashira 5 26 17 43
Terutsuyoshi Isegahama Yes Hyogo Maegashira 3 19 12 31
Fujiazuma Tamanoi Yes Tokyo Maegashira 4 17 21 38
Daishomaru Oitekaze Yes Osaka Maegashira 5 19 22 41
Hidenoumi Kise Yes Tokyo Maegashira 6 12 33 45
Tsurugisho Oitekaze Yes Tokyo Maegashira 7 9 29 38
Kyokutaisei Oshima Yes Hokkaido Maegashira 8 4 34 38
Daiamami Oitekaze Yes Kagoshima Maegashira 11 10 22 32
Akiseyama Kise Yes Aichi Maegashira 12 4 38 42
Chiyonoo Kokonoe Yes Kagoshima Maegashira 14 4 39 43
Tochinoshin Kasugano No Georgia Ozeki      
Tamawashi Kataonami Applied Mongolia Sekiwake      
Hoshoryu Tatsunami No Mongolia Komusubi      
Kiribayama Michinoku No Mongolia Komusubi      
Ura Kise Yes Osaka Maegashira 1 11 10 21
Chiyoshoma Kokonoe No Mongolia Maegashira 2 27 11 38
Kotonowaka Sadogatake Yes Chiba Maegashira 2 12 5 17
Tobizaru Oitekaze Yes Tokyo Maegashira 2 11 15 26
Kotoshoho Sadogatake Yes Chiba Maegashira 3 7 8 15
Shimanoumi Kise Yes Mie Maegashira 3 18 8 26
Tomokaze Nishonoseki Yes Kanagawa Maegashira 3 5 4 9
Enho Miyagino Yes Ishikawa Maegashira 4 9 14 23
Wakamotoharu Arashio Yes Fukushima Maegashira 6 3 12 15
Daishoho Oitekaze No Mongolia Maegashira 9 5 19 24
Kagamio Isenoumi No Mongolia Maegashira 9 7 14 21
Akua Tatsunami Yes Ibaraki Maegashira 10 6 11 17
Midorifuji Isegahama Yes Shizuoka Maegashira 10 4 9 13
Yago Oshiogawa Yes Hokkaido Maegashira 10 4 19 23
Yoshiazuma Tamanoi Yes Kumamoto Maegashira 12 3 18 21
Amakaze Oshiogawa Yes Kagawa Maegashira 13 1 18 19
Azumaryu Tamanoi No Mongolia Maegashira 14 8 44 52
Ichiyamamoto Hanaregoma Yes Hokkaido Maegashira 14 5 6 11
Oho Otake Yes Tokyo Maegashira 14 2 6 8
Kitaharima Yamahibiki Yes Hyogo Maegashira 15 1 25 26
Kotokuzan Arashio Yes Kanagawa Maegashira 16 2 2 4
Nionoumi Yamahibiki Yes Shiga Maegashira 16 1 12 13
Bushozan Fujishima Yes Ibaraki Juryo 1 0 8 8
Mitoryu Nishikido No Mongolia Juryo 1 0 26 26
Dairaido Takadagawa Yes Fukuoka Juryo 2 0 6 6
Kaisho Asakayama Yes Aichi Juryo 2 0 8 8
Churanoumi Kise Yes Okinawa Juryo 3 0 15 15
Hakuyozan Takadagawa Yes Yamagata Juryo 3 0 18 18
Tohakuryu Tamanoi Yes Tokyo Juryo 3 0 9 9
Asanowaka Takasago Yes Niigata Juryo 4 0 4 4
Nishikifuji Isegahama Yes Aomori Juryo 4 0 10 10
Takakento Tokiwayama Yes Kumamoto Juryo 4 0 6 6
Kitanowaka Hakkaku Yes Yamagata Juryo 5 0 3 3
Asabenkei Takasago Yes Kanagawa Juryo 7 0 8 8
Chiyonoumi Kokonoe Yes Kochi Juryo 8 0 14 14
Chiyoarashi Kokonoe Yes Chiba Juryo 10 0 6 6
Shimazuumi Hanaregoma Yes Kagoshima Juryo 10 0 2 2
Hiradoumi Sakaigawa Yes Nagasaki Juryo 11 0 4 4
Irodori Shikoroyama Yes Saitama Juryo 11 0 4 4
Keitenkai Onomatsu Yes Kagoshima Juryo 11 0 1 1
Asagyokusei Takasago Yes Mie Juryo 12 0 3 3
Atamifuji Isegahama Yes Shizuoka Juryo 12 0 2 2
Daiseiryu Kise Yes Aomori Juryo 12 0 3 3
Hokuseiho Miyagino Yes Hokkaido Juryo 12 0 2 2
Shiden Kise Yes Tokyo Juryo 12 0 1 1
Asashiyu Takasago Yes Mie Juryo 13 0 1 1
Gokushindo Nishikido Yes Hyogo Juryo 13 0 1 1
Kotoyusho Sadogatake Yes Nara Juryo 13 0 2 2
Oki Shikoroyama Yes Niigata Juryo 13 0 1 1
Tochimaru Kasugano Yes Tokyo Juryo 13 0 1 1
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Posted (edited)

I personally think listing them by birthdate is the best way.  Including ichimon is also helpful for those who don't have heya to ichimon memorized.

Rikishi Heya Ichimon Birth Date non-Japanese
Shohozan Hanaregoma Nishonoseki 09.02.1984  
Tamawashi Kataonami Nishonoseki 16.11.1984 Working on it
Akiseyama Kise Dewanoumi 18.07.1985  
Okinoumi Hakkaku Takasago 29.07.1985  
Aoiyama Kasugano Dewanoumi 19.06.1986  
Tokushoryu Kise Dewanoumi 22.08.1986  
Myogiryu Sakaigawa Dewanoumi 22.10.1986  
Kaisei Oshima Tatsunami 18.12.1986  
Takarafuji Isegahama Tatsunami 18.02.1987  
Fujiazuma Tamanoi Dewanoumi 19.04.1987  
Sadanoumi Sakaigawa Dewanoumi 11.05.1987  
Azumaryu Tamanoi Dewanoumi 12.05.1987 Yes
Tochinoshin Kasugano Dewanoumi 13.10.1987 Yes
Jokoryu Kise Dewanoumi 07.08.1988  
Chiyotairyu Kokonoe Takasago 14.11.1988  
Hidenoumi Kise Dewanoumi 11.06.1989  
Kyokutaisei Oshima Tatsunami 18.10.1989  
Ishiura Miyagino Tatsunami 10.01.1990  
Takayasu Tagonoura Nishonoseki 28.02.1990  
Chiyonokuni Kokonoe Takasago 10.07.1990  
Nishikigi Isenoumi Tokitsukaze 25.08.1990  
Endo Oitekaze Tokitsukaze 19.10.1990  
Ryuden Takadagawa Nishonoseki 10.11.1990  
Chiyomaru Kokonoe Takasago 17.04.1991  
Chiyonoo Kokonoe Takasago 29.05.1991  
Daishomaru Oitekaze Tokitsukaze 10.07.1991  
Chiyoshoma Kokonoe Takasago 20.07.1991 Yes
Tsurugisho Oitekaze Tokitsukaze 27.07.1991  
Shodai Tokitsukaze Tokitsukaze 05.11.1991  
Kotoeko Sadogatake Nishonoseki 20.11.1991  
Terunofuji Isegahama Tatsunami 29.11.1991  
Hokutofuji Hakkaku Takasago 15.07.1992  
Daiamami Oitekaze Tokitsukaze 15.12.1992  
Mitakeumi Dewanoumi Dewanoumi 25.12.1992  
Ichinojo Minato Nishonoseki 07.04.1993  
Yutakayama Tokitsukaze Tokitsukaze 22.09.1993  
Daieisho Oitekaze Tokitsukaze 10.11.1993  
Asanoyama Takasago Takasago 01.03.1994  
Abi Shikoroyama Nishonoseki 04.05.1994  
Kagayaki Takadagawa Nishonoseki 01.06.1994  
Takanosho Tokiwayama Nishonoseki 14.11.1994  
Wakatakakage Arashio Tokitsukaze 06.12.1994  
Terutsuyoshi Isegahama Tatsunami 17.01.1995  
Meisei Tatsunami Dewanoumi 24.07.1995  
Kiribayama Michinoku Tokitsukaze 24.04.1996 Yes
Onosho Onomatsu Nishonoseki 04.07.1996  
Takakeisho Tokiwayama Nishonoseki 05.08.1996  
Hoshoryu Tatsunami Dewanoumi 22.05.1999 Yes
         
Edited by Gurowake
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Here's a list of kabu that might become available until the end of 2027, with only the top sections being certain as the rest may become sanyo.

Name Birth Date Heya Ichimon
Tomozuna[12] Takanori 12.06.1952 Oshima Tatsunami
Oyama[12] Susumu 16.10.1952 Hakkaku Takasago
Minezaki[7] Nobutake 11.05.1956 Shibatayama Nishonoseki
Minatogawa[13] Tadamitsu 29.10.1956 Hanaregoma Nishonoseki
Araiso[17] Mutsuo 12.01.1957 Hanaregoma Nishonoseki
Oguruma[8] Koichi 26.04.1957 Oshiogawa Nishonoseki
       
Nishikijima Vacant Takasago? Takasago?
       
Tatsutayama[12] Hirokazu 07.06.1957 Michinoku Tokitsukaze
Takashima[13] Daizo 15.08.1957 Miyagino Tatsunami
Miyagino[12] Seiji 21.08.1957 Miyagino Tatsunami
Kagamiyama[8] Shoji 15.02.1958 Isenoumi Tokitsukaze
Irumagawa[16] Tetsuo 25.04.1958 Irumagawa Dewanoumi
Michinoku[9] Kazuhiro 03.04.1959 Michinoku Tokitsukaze
Hanakago[15] Tadaaki 08.04.1959 Takadagawa Nishonoseki
Isegahama[9] Seiya 06.07.1960 Isegahama Tatsunami
Otake[17] Tadahiro 30.09.1960 Otake Nishonoseki
Jinmaku[19] Tetsuya 06.11.1960 Hakkaku Takasago
Shiratama[16] Katsuyuki 06.12.1960 Sadogatake Nishonoseki
Tokiwayama[17] Takakatsu 01.03.1961 Tokiwayama Nishonoseki
Kumegawa[13] Yoshihiro 26.04.1962 Sadogatake Nishonoseki
Kasugano[11] Kiyotaka 22.05.1962 Kasugano Dewanoumi
Sakaigawa[13] Hideaki 30.07.1962 Sakaigawa Dewanoumi
Katsunoura[13] Toshiro 31.08.1962 Isenoumi Tokitsukaze
Nishikido[10] Masayuki 02.09.1962 Nishikido Takasago
Shibatayama[12] Yasushi 09.10.1962 Shibatayama Nishonoseki
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And the final pieces of the puzzle:

Borrowing from active rikishi:

Name Rikishi Heya Ichimon Owner
Kitajin[20] Sho M2 Shotenro Taishi Fujishima Dewanoumi K Endo Shota
Kimigahama[12] Kazuyoshi S Kotoyuki Kazuyoshi Sadogatake Nishonoseki S Okinoumi Ayumi

 

       

Borrowing from retired rikishi:

Otowayama[23] Takayuki M8 Tenkaiho Takayuki Onoe Dewanoumi S Masurao Hiroo
Dekiyama[16] Akihiro M2 Sadanofuji Akihiro Sakaigawa Dewanoumi S Dewanohana Yoshitaka
Furiwake[17] Kokan M14 Hochiyama Yukimi Sakaigawa Dewanoumi M10 Ushiomaru Motoyasu
Kiriyama[21] Kota M11 Asahisho Kota Oshima Tatsunami K Kurosegawa Kuniyuki
Izutsu[15] Daiki S Toyonoshima Daiki Tokitsukaze Tokitsukaze S Sakahoko Akihiro

 

Borrowing time:

Y Kakuryu - retired March 2021 - Michinoku-beya - Tokitsukaze-ichimon

 

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Jeez, I go pick my son up from work, and when I come back there's a whole cottage industry going on here!  Thanks, and I feel like maybe it was worth doing.

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Posted (edited)

Let me add cheese to the cottage based on the stats provided above (sorry, bad pun, I know):

So first things first: let me merge Gurowake's and Godango's excellent tables, sorted by rikishi age. 

Rikishi Heya Ichimon Birth Date JP Citizen Shusshin Highest Rank M Basho J Basho Total
Shohozan Hanaregoma Nishonoseki 9/2/1984 Yes Fukuoka Komusubi      
Tamawashi Kataonami Nishonoseki 16/11/1984 Applied Mongolia Sekiwake      
Akiseyama Kise Dewanoumi 18/7/1985 Yes Aichi Maegashira 12 4 38 42
Okinoumi Hakkaku Takasago 29/7/1985 Yes Shimane Sekiwake      
Aoiyama Kasugano Dewanoumi 19/6/1986 Yes Bulgaria Sekiwake      
Tokushoryu Kise Dewanoumi 22/8/1986 Yes Nara Maegashira 2 32 30 62
Myogiryu Sakaigawa Dewanoumi 22/10/1986 Yes Hyogo Sekiwake      
Kaisei Oshima Tatsunami 18/12/1986 Yes Brazil Sekiwake      
Takarafuji Isegahama Tatsunami 18/2/1987 Yes Aomori Sekiwake      
Fujiazuma Tamanoi Dewanoumi 19/4/1987 Yes Tokyo Maegashira 4 17 21 38
Sadanoumi Sakaigawa Dewanoumi 11/5/1987 Yes Kumamoto Maegashira 1 40 18 58
Azumaryu Tamanoi Dewanoumi 12/5/1987 No Mongolia Maegashira 14 8 44 52
Tochinoshin Kasugano Dewanoumi 13/10/1987 No Georgia Ozeki      
Jokoryu Kise Dewanoumi 7/8/1988 Yes Tokyo Komusubi      
Chiyotairyu Kokonoe Takasago 14/11/1988 Yes Tokyo Komusubi      
Hidenoumi Kise Dewanoumi 11/6/1989 Yes Tokyo Maegashira 6 12 33 45
Kyokutaisei Oshima Tatsunami 18/10/1989 Yes Hokkaido Maegashira 8 4 34 38
Ishiura Miyagino Tatsunami 10/1/1990 Yes Tottori Maegashira 5 26 17 43
Takayasu Tagonoura Nishonoseki 28/2/1990 Yes Ibaraki Ozeki      
Chiyonokuni Kokonoe Takasago 10/7/1990 Yes Mie Maegashira 1 34 18 52
Nishikigi Isenoumi Tokitsukaze 25/8/1990 Yes Iwate Maegashira 2 25 17 42
Endo Oitekaze Tokitsukaze 19/10/1990 Yes Ishikawa Komusubi      
Ryuden Takadagawa Nishonoseki 10/11/1990 Yes Yamanashi Komusubi      
Chiyomaru Kokonoe Takasago 17/4/1991 Yes Kagoshima Maegashira 5 29 23 52
Chiyonoo Kokonoe Takasago 29/5/1991 Yes Kagoshima Maegashira 14 4 39 43
Daishomaru Oitekaze Tokitsukaze 10/7/1991 Yes Osaka Maegashira 5 19 22 41
Chiyoshoma Kokonoe Takasago 20/7/1991 No Mongolia Maegashira 2 27 11 38
Tsurugisho Oitekaze Tokitsukaze 27/7/1991 Yes Tokyo Maegashira 7 9 29 38
Shodai Tokitsukaze Tokitsukaze 5/11/1991 Yes Kumamoto Ozeki      
Kotoeko Sadogatake Nishonoseki 20/11/1991 Yes Miyazaki Maegashira 4 20 17 37
Terunofuji Isegahama Tatsunami 29/11/1991 Yes Mongolia Yokozuna      
Hokutofuji Hakkaku Takasago 15/7/1992 Yes Saitama Komusubi      
Daiamami Oitekaze Tokitsukaze 15/12/1992 Yes Kagoshima Maegashira 11 10 22 32
Mitakeumi Dewanoumi Dewanoumi 25/12/1992 Yes Nagano Ozeki      
Ichinojo Minato Nishonoseki 7/4/1993 Yes Mongolia Sekiwake      
Yutakayama Tokitsukaze Tokitsukaze 22/9/1993 Yes Niigata Maegashira 1 24 9 33
Daieisho Oitekaze Tokitsukaze 10/11/1993 Yes Saitama Sekiwake      
Asanoyama Takasago Takasago 1/3/1994 Yes Toyama Ozeki      
Abi Shikoroyama Nishonoseki 4/5/1994 Yes Saitama Sekiwake      
Kagayaki Takadagawa Nishonoseki 1/6/1994 Yes Ishikawa Maegashira 3 35 10 45
Takanosho Tokiwayama Nishonoseki 14/11/1994 Yes Chiba Sekiwake      
Wakatakakage Arashio Tokitsukaze 6/12/1994 Yes Fukushima Sekiwake      
Terutsuyoshi Isegahama Tatsunami 17/1/1995 Yes Hyogo Maegashira 3 19 12 31
Meisei Tatsunami Dewanoumi 24/7/1995 Yes Kagoshima Sekiwake      
Kiribayama Michinoku Tokitsukaze 24/4/1996 No Mongolia Komusubi      
Onosho Onomatsu Nishonoseki 4/7/1996 Yes Aomori Komusubi      
Takakeisho Tokiwayama Nishonoseki 5/8/1996 Yes Hyogo Ozeki      
Hoshoryu Tatsunami Dewanoumi 22/5/1999 No Mongolia Komusubi      
Bushozan Fujishima Dewanoumi Missing Yes Ibaraki Juryo 1 0 8 8
Mitoryu Nishikido Takasago Missing No Mongolia Juryo 1 0 26 26
Shimazuumi Hanaregoma Nishonoseki Missing Yes Kagoshima Juryo 10 0 2 2
Chiyoarashi Kokonoe Takasago Missing Yes Chiba Juryo 10 0 6 6
Keitenkai Onomatsu Nishonoseki Missing Yes Kagoshima Juryo 11 0 1 1
Hiradoumi Sakaigawa Dewanoumi Missing Yes Nagasaki Juryo 11 0 4 4
Irodori Shikoroyama Nishonoseki Missing Yes Saitama Juryo 11 0 4 4
Atamifuji Isegahama Tatsunami Missing Yes Shizuoka Juryo 12 0 2 2
Daiseiryu Kise Dewanoumi Missing Yes Aomori Juryo 12 0 3 3
Shiden Kise Dewanoumi Missing Yes Tokyo Juryo 12 0 1 1
Hokuseiho Miyagino Tatsunami Missing Yes Hokkaido Juryo 12 0 2 2
Asagyokusei Takasago Takasago Missing Yes Mie Juryo 12 0 3 3
Tochimaru Kasugano Dewanoumi Missing Yes Tokyo Juryo 13 0 1 1
Gokushindo Nishikido Takasago Missing Yes Hyogo Juryo 13 0 1 1
Kotoyusho Sadogatake Nishonoseki Missing Yes Nara Juryo 13 0 2 2
Oki Shikoroyama Nishonoseki Missing Yes Niigata Juryo 13 0 1 1
Asashiyu Takasago Takasago Missing Yes Mie Juryo 13 0 1 1
Kaisho Asakayama Tatsunami Missing Yes Aichi Juryo 2 0 8 8
Dairaido Takadagawa Nishonoseki Missing Yes Fukuoka Juryo 2 0 6 6
Churanoumi Kise Dewanoumi Missing Yes Okinawa Juryo 3 0 15 15
Hakuyozan Takadagawa Nishonoseki Missing Yes Yamagata Juryo 3 0 18 18
Tohakuryu Tamanoi Dewanoumi Missing Yes Tokyo Juryo 3 0 9 9
Nishikifuji Isegahama Tatsunami Missing Yes Aomori Juryo 4 0 10 10
Asanowaka Takasago Takasago Missing Yes Niigata Juryo 4 0 4 4
Takakento Tokiwayama Nishonoseki Missing Yes Kumamoto Juryo 4 0 6 6
Kitanowaka Hakkaku Takasago Missing Yes Yamagata Juryo 5 0 3 3
Asabenkei Takasago Takasago Missing Yes Kanagawa Juryo 7 0 8 8
Chiyonoumi Kokonoe Takasago Missing Yes Kochi Juryo 8 0 14 14
Ura Kise Dewanoumi Missing Yes Osaka Maegashira 1 11 10 21
Midorifuji Isegahama Tatsunami Missing Yes Shizuoka Maegashira 10 4 9 13
Yago Oshiogawa Nishonoseki Missing Yes Hokkaido Maegashira 10 4 19 23
Akua Tatsunami Dewanoumi Missing Yes Ibaraki Maegashira 10 6 11 17
Yoshiazuma Tamanoi Dewanoumi Missing Yes Kumamoto Maegashira 12 3 18 21
Amakaze Oshiogawa Nishonoseki Missing Yes Kagawa Maegashira 13 1 18 19
Ichiyamamoto Hanaregoma Nishonoseki Missing Yes Hokkaido Maegashira 14 5 6 11
Oho Otake Nishonoseki Missing Yes Tokyo Maegashira 14 2 6 8
Kitaharima Yamahibiki Dewanoumi Missing Yes Hyogo Maegashira 15 1 25 26
Kotokuzan Arashio Tokitsukaze Missing Yes Kanagawa Maegashira 16 2 2 4
Nionoumi Yamahibiki Dewanoumi Missing Yes Shiga Maegashira 16 1 12 13
Tobizaru Oitekaze Tokitsukaze Missing Yes Tokyo Maegashira 2 11 15 26
Kotonowaka Sadogatake Nishonoseki Missing Yes Chiba Maegashira 2 12 5 17
Shimanoumi Kise Dewanoumi Missing Yes Mie Maegashira 3 18 8 26
Tomokaze Nishonoseki Nishonoseki Missing Yes Kanagawa Maegashira 3 5 4 9
Kotoshoho Sadogatake Nishonoseki Missing Yes Chiba Maegashira 3 7 8 15
Enho Miyagino Tatsunami Missing Yes Ishikawa Maegashira 4 9 14 23
Wakamotoharu Arashio Tokitsukaze Missing Yes Fukushima Maegashira 6 3 12 15
Kagamio Isenoumi Tokitsukaze Missing No Mongolia Maegashira 9 7 14 21
Daishoho Oitekaze Tokitsukaze Missing No Mongolia Maegashira 9 5 19 24

Next, assuming (this is a very big if) that kabu stay within their ichimon, then the matching of demand to supply based on the above tables looks like this:

Ichimon Eligible Sekitori Vacating kabu Borrowed kabu
Dewanoumi 10 3 4
Nishonoseki 11 10 1
Tokitsukaze 9 4 1
Takasago 7 4 0
Tatsunami 6 4 1

Note: Nishonoseki's 11 counts Tamawashi, who currently is not eligible for a kabu but is likely to be by the time he retires.

By the numbers, only Nishonoseki has barely enough kabu for everyone (and still needs to kick a borrower), whereas Takasago and Dewanoumi are going to be short about 3 each, and Tokitsukaze about 5, assuming they also kick borrowers.

If the borrowers do stay on, then Dewanoumi's situation is the most acute, being short of 7 kabu. Nishonoseki has almost enough for everyone, while Takasago and Tatsunami will be short a couple each.

Further analysis to follow, based on this table.

Edited by Seiyashi
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Posted (edited)

Tatsunami/Tatsunami-Isegahama

Kabu available (ordered by proximity to retirement within each category)

  • Sanyō
    • Tomozuna (ex-Kaiki) (70)
  • Full oyakata
    • Takashima (ex-Kōbōyama) (65)
    • Miyagino (ex-Chikubayama) (65)
    • Isegahama (ex-Asahifuji) (63)
  • Borrowers
    • Kiriyama (ex-Asahishō) (33)

Sekitori waiting (by age)

  • Kaisei (36)
  • Takarafuji (35) 
  • Kyokutaisei (33)
  • Ishiura (32)
  • Terunofuji (31)
  • Terutsuyoshi (27)

Because kabu can be swapped, it's more correct to think of the kabu listed above as slots going by whatever name, rather than the sekitori definitely succeeding to that kabu itself. That's going to result in some contortions in language from here on out, for which I apologise in advance.

Tatsunami has the clearest kabu succession picture, being the smallest ichimon, having a relatively small number of sekitori and kabu, and with the most publicly available information regarding their future plans.

Straight off the bat, we can most likely eliminate one sekitori - Ishiura. It's most likely he will succeed his father as sumo head at Tottori Jōhoku, where his links to Hakuhō-beya by whatever actual name (whether Miyagino or Magaki) will likely ensure a steady supply of Tottori Jōhoku grads for that heya. As it is, Ishiura was the heya representative alongside Hakuhō's wife at Mukainakano's nyūmon press conference at Tottori Jōhoku, and Mukainakano did his shinjo shusse wearing a keshōmawashi of Ishiura's. That leaves 5 sekitori for 4+1 kabu, which actually doesn't look that bad.

A quick check of all the kabu involved shows that they've always stayed within Tatsunami, so there's probably a fairly low chance of one of these kabu being yoinked for another ichimon. That being said, Hakuhō's Magaki, while historically a Tatsunami kabu, has wandered around the other ichimon for a while, and it might be possible that Hakuhō might be prevailed upon to allow Magaki to go back elsewhere for another kanban rikishi (Shōdai?) after he succeeds to the Miyagino name and if ex-Chikubayama doesn't want to stay on as sanyō. But in any case, it's likely that ex-Chikubayama will stay on as sanyō, so the availability of a kabu, as currently represented by Miyagino, may be a little suspect.

Once we're done with that, it's easy to match Terunofuji to the slot currently represented by Isegahama. It's common knowledge the current Ajigawa, ex-Aminishiki, will succeed to the Isegahama name himself, leaving the Ajigawa kabu free for Terunofuji to take up as an adopted family member (his full name being Suginomori Seizan). Even if Isegahama takes up the sanyō option, Terunofuji has the 5-year jun-toshiyori grace period (same as Kakuryū is currently enjoying) so he just needs to hold on for less than 2 years for the stars to align. No real problem there.

That leaves Tomozuna and Takashima currently unspoken for. By seniority, those should go to Kaisei and Takarafuji respectively, and there's probably no doubt that the two, having had a long makuuchi career, are more than capable of making whatever payments might be required to secure a kabu. In fact, Tomozuna is going to fall vacant in less than a month, ex-Kaiki reaching 70 on 12 June, so if Kaisei is going to fall to makushita after this basho we might be seeing an intai announcement from him.

This leaves Kyokutaisei and Terutsuyoshi potentially out in the cold. Terutsuyoshi is probably in the least danger, being the youngest of all qualified sekitori, probably having a good number of years left in him, and having more bashō in makuuchi then jūryō. By the time he retires, even if another kabu doesn't become available, he might well have the standing to displace either of Kyokutaisei or Asashishō if they're still around. Speaking of those two, neither are particularly distinguished, spending the vast majority of their qualifying bashō in jūryō. From a retention perspective it's hard to make a case for one or the other, and one of the two is likely going to have to leave the NSK if push comes to shove. There is the distinct possibility that Kyokutaisei is just hanging on for Tomozuna to become available and he is the one going to try and take up Tomozuna when it becomes vacant, but that assumes that Kaisei won't have dibs on it over him, especially if Kaisei gets demoted this time round.

Edited by Seiyashi
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Takasago

Kabu available (ordered by proximity to retirement within each category)

  • Sanyō
    • Ōyama (ex-Ōnobori) (70)
  • Vacant
    • Nishikijima (last holder ex-Asashiō, formerly Takasago oyakata)
  • Full oyakata
    • Jinmaku (ex-Fujinoshin) (62)
    • Nishikido (ex-Mitoizumi) (60)
  • Borrowers
    • Sanoyama (ex-Chiyootori) (30)

Sekitori waiting (by age)

  • Okinoumi (37)
  • Chiyotairyū (34)
  • Chiyonokuni (32)
  • Chiyomaru (31)
  • Chiyonoō (31)
  • Hokutofuji (30)
  • Asanoyama (28)

This might as well be renamed Kokonoe's Kabu Conundrum (the alliteration could have been perfected with Xtreme Cool Letterz, but that particular acronym has very unfortunate implications, so I've to settle for aural alliteration alone).

Okinoumi can be eliminated off the list. He's got his own Kimigahama kabu, which Kotoyūki is currently borrowing, Even if Okinoumi does retire Kotoyūki is likely to have to look elsewhere for a kabu, whether or not within his own Nishonoseki ichimon, so it won't necessarily be a Takasago-only problem.

Hokutofuji is not likely to have problems looking for kabu either. Ōyama is becoming available now, and having been a Takasago kabu since time immemorial (actually 1912, when records existed), it's unlikely to be permanently attached to other ichimon. It might well be borrowed by another ichimon's rikishi for a while, but I wouldn't be surprised if Ōyama was earmarked for Hokutofuji.

Asanoyama, well, this one's a mess. Long story short, old ex-Asashiō made it a condition of ex-Asasekiryū succeeding to the Takasago name that Asanoyama would one day be Takasago oyakata. While he was waiting, presumably Nishikijima would be his holding kabu. With ex-Asashiō forced out in disgrace and Asanoyama still serving penance, it's completely up in the air whether that deal still holds, if even Asanoyama can restore himself into the NSK's good graces to be allowed to hold a kabu.  That said, Asanoyama's still young, and has plenty of fighting time, so whether or not he does complete his rehabilitation, he's not going to need Nishikijima for quite some time.

Switching tracks a bit, Nishikido still has 5 years to go but no clear successor - his only sekitori is Mitoryū, who's Mongolian and may not be able to hold a kabu, at which point the heya will fold if it's not taken over. That said, Mitoryū is only 4 more bashō away from making it, so he may well become eligible in due course; he's not that old either and still has time. The kabu itself has remained in Takasago since 1954, so it's unlikely to permanently be attached to another ichimon, but in any case it won't be for another 5 years.

What this tidies down to is 4 Kokonoe rikishi struggling over 3, maybe less, kabu. 

The 4 Kokonoe rikishi are Chiyonokuni, Chiyomaru, Chiyonoō, and either Chiyotairyū or Chiyootori. It was previously assumed that Chiyootori was the successor to Sanoyama, having been first higher ranked on the occasion of Chiyotaikai's succession to the Kokonoe kabu, but Chiyootori has had much rougher luck than Chiyotairyū, and is listed below ex-Asahishō as a borrower of his kabu. One can only assume that Chiyotairyū as the only makuuchi mainstay was the one ultimately able to make payments towards holding Sanoyama.

Be that as it may, the three kabu that might be available in order of availability are Nishikijima, Jinmaku, and Nishikido. However, Nishikijima hasn't been a Takasago staple; it was in Tokitsukaze for most of its recorded history, with a brief and ultimately insignificant interlude into Tatsunami when it was borrowed by a freshly retired Kurohimeyama. With Tokitsukaze having a potentially far more dire kabu crunch, it's not impossible that Nishikijima may leave the ichimon at least temporarily if not permanently, which then leaves the Kokonoe rikishi stuck up a creek without a paddle for at least 3 years before Jinmaku becomes available. It's unfortunately very likely that at least some of the Kokonoe rikishi therefore may be forced to leave the NSK or to displace each other on their retirement, if they're unlucky and have to fight for borrower's rights.

Sotto voce: @Gurowake, you missed Chiyootori in your list of borrowers.

Edited by Seiyashi
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Tokitsukaze

Kabu available (ordered by proximity to retirement within each category)

  • Full oyakata
    • Tatsutayama (ex-Sasshūnada) (65)
    • Kagamiyama (ex-Tagaryū) (64)
    • Michinoku (ex-Kirishima) (63)
    • Katsunoura (ex-Kirinishiki) (60)
  • Borrowers
    • Izutsu (ex-Toyonoshima) (39)
  • Jun-toshiyori
    • Kakuryū (37)

Sekitori waiting (by age)

  • Nishikigi (32)
  • Endō (32)
  • Daishōmaru (31)
  • Tsurugishō (31)
  • Shōdai (31)
  • Daiamami (30)
  • Yutakayama (29)
  • Daieishō (28)
  • Wakatakakage (27)

Straight off the bat, let's get rid of two sekitori and one kabu. Endō has his own Kitajin kabu that ex-Shōtenrō (of Dewanoumi) is currently borrowing. As with ex-Kotoyūki and Okinoumi, when Endō retires, Shōtenrō's displacement will have him go walkabout wherever to try and borrow a kabu, but that's not only Tokitsukaze's problem. 

As for Kakuryū, while we'd all have loved to see him succeed to his late shishō's Izutsu kabu, that possibility is getting more and more remote by the day, what with Shimanoumi marrying ex-Sakahoko's daughter and muddying those waters a bit more. Izutsu was a Tokitsukaze kabu for most of its existence except when Kitanofuji briefly revived it as an independent heya before handing it over to what he probably considered to be its rightful successor, Tsurugamine (the adopted descendant of the line of Nishinoumi yokozuna). But we digress; Kakuryū is likely to just simply settle for the next best thing and succeed to the Michinoku name. The current Michinoku-beya branched out from Izutsu in 1973 and absorbed its parent heya on ex-Sakahoko's death. After all, Michinoku was the parent heya of the Izutsu out of which Kakuryū fought, and the two heya are closely intertwined (see Asashosakari's post here for more details). The only possible obstacle is that there seems to be no love lost between Michinoku and Kakuryū, especially in the rather chaotic last days of Kakuryū's career, but with a relatively stable heya (looking at you, Kagamiyama) and no clear successor, Kakuryū's likely a shoo-in for the Michinoku kabu in due course.

That leaves 3 kabu and 1 borrower amongst 8 sekitori - quite the crunch. Of the lot, the kanban rikishi are Shōdai, Daieishō, and likely Wakatakakage, all automatically qualifying by virtue of sanyaku (although I don't see anyone bending over backwards to give Shōdai a kabu the way he's performing now). It just so happens that they match up fairly nicely to the three available kabu which are likely to stay in the ichimon, so the remainder of the rikishi on the waiting list might well be out of luck, but maybe a kabu or two may be available for borrowing. Certainly Nishikigi, being in the same heya as Kagamiyama, might well be able to request to borrow the kabu if he needs it, although Nishikigi is enjoying something of a late career resurgence. In any case, Tokitsukaze's sekitori are quite a good deal younger than Tatsunami's or Takasago's, so the kabu crunch might not be that acute now - but it almost certainly will be in 5 years' time, when almost all of them will hit 35+.

Edited by Seiyashi
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Posted (edited)

Dewanoumi

Kabu available (ordered by proximity to retirement within each category)

  • Full oyakata
    • Irumagawa (ex-Tochitsukasa) (64)
    • Kasugano (ex-Tochinowaka) (60)
    • Sakaigawa (ex-Ryōgoku) (60)
  • Borrowers
    • Kitajin (ex-Shōtenrō) (40)
    • Otowayama (ex-Tenkaihō) (38)
    • Dekiyama (ex-Sadanofuji) (38)
    • Furiwake (ex-Hōchiyama) (40)

Sekitori waiting (by age)

  • Akiseyama (37)
  • Aoiyama (36)
  • Tokushōryū (36)
  • Myōgiryū (36)
  • Fujiazuma (35)
  • Sadanoumi (35)
  • Jōkōryū (34)
  • Hidenoumi (33)
  • Mitakeumi (30)
  • Meisei (27)

This one is a bit of a mess. 10 mostly rather old sekitori for 3 kabu, and 2 only opening up in a year's time. This is where some favours might have to be called in for temporary loaners - e.g. Nishikijima. Courtesy of Ripe, it doesn't help that Furiwake and Otowayama are off-ichimon loaners; Furiwake ought to go back to Takasago, where it can help with the Kokonoe situation, and Otowayama to Nishonoseki (it might even already have been acquired on the QT by Ōnoshō).

Well, at least one rikishi can be removed from the dogpile. Mitakeumi, being longstanding heyagashira at Dewanoumi-beya itself, and being personally requested to join to revive the fortunes of Dewanoumi, is likely to succeed to the Dewanoumi name. ex-Oginohana is only 55, and it's unlikely that Mitakeumi will be wrestling till 40, but as an ōzeki he has 3-year jun-toshiyori should he need it and not be able to borrow another kabu, which puts his retirement age at 37. Not implausible in these current times. In any case, his situation is a lot less acute relative to someone like Akiseyama, who is not having an easy time of his return from injury.

Aoiyama also ought to be associated with a kabu, given his recent acquisition of citizenship, but which kabu it is is anyone's guess. Tochiōzan might succeed to Kasugano, leaving Aoiyama to take over Tochiōzan's Kiyomigata kabu.

Myōgiryū and Sadanoumi are probably vying for Sakaigawa. Myogiryū is most senior in terms of rank after Takekuma's departure, but Sadanoumi has a family connection to ex-Ryōgoku; ex-Ryōgoku was a deshi of current Sadanoumi's father, and that may have some bearing to play on how Sakaigawa-beya is succeeded to.

The former komusubi Jōkōryū is in a curious spot. No one can deny his skill, but he has had the devil's own luck with injuries, resulting in a career less impressive than it should have been. Will he be given a kabu? If so, it looks like he's going to displace one of the trio of borrowers from retired/deceased rikishi, who topped out at maegashira.

Not much to be said about the remainder of the sekitori here, which other than Meisei have mostly been journeymen. If they do get a kabu it will likely be via borrowing; they don't seem likely to be first in line to any kabu unless they can outright purchase one.

Edited by Seiyashi
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Nishonoseki

Kabu available (ordered by proximity to retirement within each category)

  • Sanyō
    • Minezaki (ex-Misugiiso) (66)
    • Minatogawa (ex-Daitetsu) (66)
    • Araiso (ex-Wakashimazu) (65)
    • Oguruma (ex-Kotokaze) (65)
  • Full oyakata
    • Hanakago (ex-Daijūyama) (63)
    • Ōtake (ex-Dairyū) (62)
    • Shiratama (ex-Kototsubaki) (62)
    • Tokiwayama (ex-Takamisugi) (61)
    • Kumegawa (ex-Kotoinazuma) (60)
    • Shibatayama (ex-Ōnokuni) (60)
  • Borrowers
    • Kimigahama (ex-Kotoyūki) (31)

Sekitori waiting (by age)

  • Shōhōzan (38)
  • Tamawashi (38)
  • Takayasu (32)
  • Ryūden (32)
  • Kotoekō (31)
  • Ichinojō (29)
  • Abi (28)
  • Kagayaki (28)
  • Takanoshō (28)
  • Ōnoshō (26)
  • Takakeishō (26)

Probably the ichimon that has the least issues finding slots for people. Other than iron men Shōhōzan and Tamawashi, the latter of whom looks good enough to go for at least a year or two yet (at least until he gets his citizenship, for one), everyone else is about 5 years away from retirement barring catastrophic injury. Just as well, because guess in what time horizon the kabu in this ichimon come free. 

It's fairly easy to match some rikishi to their prospective kabu. Kotoekō and Kotoyūki are probably holding on for Kumegawa and Shiratama, both oyakata affiliated with Sadogatake at the moment. Takakeishō has no issue succeeding to Tokiwayama, even if he has to use his 3-year jun-toshiyori to do it. Shōhōzan probably has Araiso available for him when he needs it. Ryūden might have Hanakago available (provided he lives down his recent disgrace), and Abi probably has Shikoroyama available as well (ex-Terao being just out of the above list by a year). Takayasu might well take over Tagonoura as well the next time somebody does something stupid, and as an ex-ōzeki also has benefit of the 3-year jun-toshiyori rule anyway, so none of the rikishi in this list are concerns in terms of not being able to get a kabu.

The remaining rikishi can be divided into two lists. The first consists of Tamawashi, Ichinojō, and Ōnoshō; rikishi in heya with shisho too young to immediately hand over the heya on their retirement. In other words, they'll need a kabu first before they succeed their shisho, if at all. Good thing Nishonoseki has a surplus, so the kabu is available provided none of the other ichimon have temporarily yoinked or traded it for their own kabu crunch. The second list consists of Kagayaki (who indirectly arguably falls in the first category) and Takanoshō; rikishi in heya with no "spare" kabu for them, and therefore they will need to permanently occupy one kabu if they intend to remain in the NSK. After eliminating the kabu in the previous paragraph, that leaves us with Minezaki, Minatogawa, Oguruma, Ōtake, and Shibatayama. Again, probably enough to go around, so it's likely that we'll see a lot of Nishonoseki kabu being passed around as loaners before this relatively young crop of sekitori retire.

EDIT: For completeness, it should be mentioned that Ōnoshō seems to have secured the Otowayama kabu that is currently on loan from ex-Tenkaihō, so that sorts him out.

Edited by Seiyashi

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