Natsu 2022 Discussion Thread - here be spoilers

[Reonito 342]

1 minute ago, RabidJohn said:

It was terrifically unfortunate that he succumbed to a career-ending injury just 1 basho after finally putting to rest his reputation as a choker.
Maybe not that specific result, but I said it for comic effect rather than as fact. 

Nowt wrong with my memory in this case.

There was this.

[Katooshu 1,904]

Kise could choke, but he also had Hakuho, Harumafuji, and Kakuryu to deal with at the end of most basho...

Incidentally, his H2H vs Terunofuji is very good.

Edited May 24 by Katooshu

[Koorifuu 270]

A bit offtopic but I'm sad that Shohozan's career (or at least sekitorihood) ended with a bowling ball impersonation, courtesy of a 28 year old with a career high of ms2, bringing a 2-5 record to the dohyo.

That being said, Tsushimanada is no stranger to being 2-5 and yet brought on to juryo for an 8th bout on senshuraku, where he gets gifted a 3rd win via dumping an ailing, aging veteran saying goodbye to the paid divisions. He was Kyokutaisei's last nail in the coffin, last time out in Nagoya.

[Yamanashi 2,468]

1 hour ago, Katooshu said:

Kise could choke, but he also had Hakuho, Harumafuji, and Kakuryu to deal with at the end of most basho...

Incidentally, his H2H vs Terunofuji is very good.

Some choking, some non-choking; either he was the perfect Ozeki all those years (wall against the lower ranks, but not top rank material himself), or he was a potential Yokozuna who could never quite pull the string.  I know that his 12/2 Jun Yusho to Yusho ratio is stunning in comparison with other Y/O since the 70's, but I can't pinpoint why.

[Kotomiyama 94]

Good news: Tomokaze has posted 6-1 at Makushita 10, which will put him closer to Juryo in July. We are getting used to comebacks lately, let's see if he can make it back to Makuuchi.

[Gospodin 135]

1 hour ago, Kotomiyama said:

Good news: Tomokaze has posted 6-1 at Makushita 10, which will put him closer to Juryo in July. We are getting used to comebacks lately, let's see if he can make it back to Makuuchi.

My money´s down he does. Even if he is permanently restricted by his injury, his talent should take him to lower Makuuchi at least.

[Godango 604]

8 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

I have a question for the sumo pundits on this forum:

Rising star Atamifuji is a relative newcomer to the sekitori ranks.  Despite this being his second tournament in the Juryo ranks, he is still wearing his mage flat (i.e., no oicho).  I had always assumed that the oicho mage was a privilege reserved for sekitori.  Of course, most of us have seen sekitori with their hair still loose, and this is usually attributed to their hair not being long enough to gather in a mage topknot.  But when I look at Atamifuji's current mage, it is clear to me that his hair is longer (and thicker) than several veteran sekitori, whose mage look smaller and shorter in comparison.  What is the precise criteria for a wrestler's hair to be eligible for oicho mage grooming?

I doubt age is the determining factor.  But as explained above, hair length does not appear to be the ultimate factor either.  The only other thing I can think of is the number of tournaments a wrestler has competed in.  But that doesn't make a lot of sense to me either.

After Atamifuji's impressive double-digit record this tournament, he looks set to be a sekitori mainstay, if not a Top Division star.  I will be even more puzzled if he doesn't show up with a oicho-mage next tournament! 

Speculating here, I do think it's a length issue -- the oicho requires a bit of extra length compared to the standard mage in order to get that 'ginko leaf' look. 

That said, I agree he could probably have  very small oicho a la the former Aminishiki toward the end of his career, but maybe for a younger lad the tokoyama made the judgement call to say is hair isn't long enough yet, so that when his oicho does debut it's full and glorious. 

[Benevolance 2,155]

On 10/05/2022 at 12:14, Benevolance said:

The yusho winner gets at least 13 wins. 

Thank goodness my ridiculous predictions remain firmly in the realm of ridiculous predictions, for should such events ever come to pass, it would test the sanity of the noblest minds and bravest hearts. 

[Seiyashi 2,439]

5 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

Some choking, some non-choking; either he was the perfect Ozeki all those years (wall against the lower ranks, but not top rank material himself), or he was a potential Yokozuna who could never quite pull the string.  I know that his 12/2 Jun Yusho to Yusho ratio is stunning in comparison with other Y/O since the 70's, but I can't pinpoint why.

My initial reaction guess is that that's a JY/Y ratio more akin to an ōzeki's rather than a yokozuna's, since his career got terminated before it could get started.

But looking at the Y/O since the 90s (i.e. from Akebono and Takanonami):

Yokozuna	JY/D	Y	Ratio		Ōzeki	JY/D	Y	Ratio
Terunofuji	7	7	0.50		Mitakeumi	0	3	1.00
Kisenosato	12	2	0.14		Shōdai	3	1	0.25
Kakuryū	8	6	0.43		Asanoyama	3	1	0.25
Harumafuji	7	9	0.56		Takakeishō	6	2	0.25
Hakuhō	22	45	0.67		Tochinoshin	4	1	0.20
Asashōryū	8	25	0.76		Takayasu	5	0	0.00
Musashimaru	14	12	0.46		Gōeidō	7	1	0.13
Wakanohana	9	5	0.36		Kotoshōgiku	3	1	0.25
Takanohana	16	22	0.58		Baruto	4	1	0.20
Akebono	13	11	0.46		Kotomitsuki	8	1	0.11
Average	11.60	14.40	0.49		Kotoōshū	4	1	0.20
					Tochiazuma	5	3	0.38
					Kaiō	11	5	0.31
					Miyabiyama	4	0	0.00
					Musōyama	4	1	0.20
					Dejima	2	1	0.33
					Chiyotaikai	7	3	0.30
					Takanonami	8	2	0.20
					Average	4.89	1.56	0.25

Ratio is Y over JY+Y.

So your average yokozuna since Akebono would have 11.6 JY to 14.4 Y, scoring a ratio of 0.55. As it is, the average JY/Y ratio since Akebono for a yokozuna is 0.49. Barring Kisenosato, the worst was Wakanohana III with 9 JY to 5 Y, making for a ratio of 0.36, whereas the best was Asashōryū, with 8 JY to 25 Y for a ratio of 0.76, better than even Hakuhō with 0.67. Against his yokozuna peers, Kisenosato's 12 JY to 2 Y absolutely pales in comparison, making him less than half of Wakanohana III with a ratio of 0.14.

Kisenosato is much more at home amongst ōzeki, who average 4.89 JY to 1.56 Y for a ratio of 0.24. That matches up remarkably well with the average ōzeki's ratio of 0.25. Mitakeumi stands out for having the absolute best ratio of 1, having no JY to his name (I'm sure there's a joke to be made out of this), and Takayasu and Miyabiyama are naturally looking at ratios of 0 with their inability to score yūshō (and Takayasu continuing to run up the score with at least one JY added since his ōzeki tenure ended). But the rest of the ōzeki crowd are looking at relatively tight ratios of 0.1 to 0.3, with Tochiazuma, Kaiō, and Dejima being the only ones to score above 0.3, and Tochiazuma being the only one to score 0.38 and exceed Wakanohana III's ratio. 

So that seems to prove my initial reaction, in that Kisenosato's JY to Y ratio is atypical of a yokozuna and more like an ōzeki. Which is a fair statement, because his yokozuna career never really got started and therefore for all intents and purposes he peaked as an ōzeki. But to make it fairer for him, what about if we compared the all the above yokozuna at the point of their promotion?

Yokozuna	JY/D	Y	Ratio
Terunofuji	7	4	0.36
Kisenosato	12	1	0.08
Kakuryū	4	1	0.20
Harumafuji	3	4	0.57
Hakuhō	5	3	0.38
Asashōryū	2	2	0.50
Musashimaru	10	5	0.33
Wakanohana	7	5	0.42
Takanohana	4	7	0.64
Akebono	1	3	0.75
Average	5.50	3.50	0.39

I'm sorry, he just looks worse here. He has the double ignominy of clocking the most JY and clocking the least Y prior to promotion, which puts his ratio at an absolutely abysmal 0.08. The next worst was Kakuryū with 0.2. The only other rikishi to reach double digit JY prior to yokozuna promotion was Musashimaru, perhaps the best analogue to Kisenosato as being a strong, consistent ōzeki, but even Musashimaru had accumulated 5 yūshō prior to his promotion for a respectable ratio of 0.33. So even amongst yokozuna potentiates, Kisenosato just couldn't match his peers when it came to at least being able to secure yūshō, not to mention trying for them back to back.

[Gurowake 3,037]

5 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

 looking at the Y/O since the 90s (i.e. from Akebono and Takanonami):

Would you consider doing this analysis for the ratio of non-jun-yusho to yusho plus jun-yusho?

Edited May 25 by Gurowake

[Seiyashi 2,439]

6 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Would you consider doing this analysis for the ratio of non-jun-yusho to yusho plus jun-yusho?

Basically meaning their JY+Y over total makuuchi basho? Yes, but I'll put this in a new thread: I think it's important enough contextual information for comparing historical Y/O to not be buried in an individual basho's thread, and I wouldn't be bothered if that was its ultimate fate.

Edited May 25 by Seiyashi

[Godango 604]

 

38 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I'm sorry, he just looks worse here. He has the double ignominy of clocking the most JY and clocking the least Y prior to promotion, which puts his ratio at an absolutely abysmal 0.08. The next worst was Kakuryū with 0.2. The only other rikishi to reach double digit JY prior to yokozuna promotion was Musashimaru, perhaps the best analogue to Kisenosato as being a strong, consistent ōzeki, but even Musashimaru had accumulated 5 yūshō prior to his promotion for a respectable ratio of 0.33. So even amongst yokozuna potentiates, Kisenosato just couldn't match his peers when it came to at least being able to secure yūshō, not to mention trying for them back to back.

Kisenosato's injury as he was seemingly nearing his peak is one heck of a variable.

Literally winning two yusho back to back and then suffering an effectively career ending injury may not change the facts, and his results do indeed reflect a rikishi who couldn't match his peers. 

But the injury provides context to support that he in fact could, and had started to. Of course, maybe he was benefiting from what was the beginning of the ageing out of the pre-existing Yokozuna, who knows.

[Seiyashi 2,439]

1 minute ago, Godango said:

 

Kisenosato's injury as he was seemingly nearing his peak is one heck of a variable.

Literally winning two yusho back to back and then suffering an effectively career ending injury may not change the facts, and his results do indeed reflect a rikishi who couldn't match his peers. 

But the injury provides context to support that he in fact could, and had started to. Of course, maybe he was benefiting from what was the beginning of the ageing out of the pre-existing Yokozuna, who knows.

Considering his career effectively ended after his injury, I agree it's not fair to compare his stats against full yokozuna who retired, since he never got started. That's why I provided stats on yokozuna just prior to their promotion for a fairer comparison, but even there Kisenosato doesn't look good.

[Godango 604]

1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

Considering his career effectively ended after his injury, I agree it's not fair to compare his stats against full yokozuna who retired, since he never got started. That's why I provided stats on yokozuna just prior to their promotion for a fairer comparison, but even there Kisenosato doesn't look good.

Ah, touché.

[Gurowake 3,037]

42 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Basically meaning their JY+Y over total makuuchi basho?

I was thinking more about the times as Ozeki and/or Yokozuna rather than the entirety of their Makuuchi careers.  Or at least after their first promotion.

[Yamanashi 2,468]

37 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

My initial reaction guess is that that's a JY/Y ratio more akin to an ōzeki's rather than a yokozuna's, since his career got terminated before it could get started.

But looking at the Y/O since the 90s (i.e. from Akebono and Takanonami):

Yokozuna	JY/D	Y	Ratio		Ōzeki	JY/D	Y	Ratio
Terunofuji	7	7	0.50		Mitakeumi	0	3	1.00
Kisenosato	12	2	0.14		Shōdai	3	1	0.25
Kakuryū	8	6	0.43		Asanoyama	3	1	0.25
Harumafuji	7	9	0.56		Takakeishō	6	2	0.25
Hakuhō	22	45	0.67		Tochinoshin	4	1	0.20
Asashōryū	8	25	0.76		Takayasu	5	0	0.00
Musashimaru	14	12	0.46		Gōeidō	7	1	0.13
Wakanohana	9	5	0.36		Kotoshōgiku	3	1	0.25
Takanohana	16	22	0.58		Baruto	4	1	0.20
Akebono	13	11	0.46		Kotomitsuki	8	1	0.11
Average	11.60	14.40	0.49		Kotoōshū	4	1	0.20
					Tochiazuma	5	3	0.38
					Kaiō	11	5	0.31
					Miyabiyama	4	0	0.00
					Musōyama	4	1	0.20
					Dejima	2	1	0.33
					Chiyotaikai	7	3	0.30
					Takanonami	8	2	0.20
					Average	4.89	1.56	0.25

Ratio is Y over JY+Y.

So your average yokozuna since Akebono would have 11.6 JY to 14.4 Y, scoring a ratio of 0.55. As it is, the average JY/Y ratio since Akebono for a yokozuna is 0.49. Barring Kisenosato, the worst was Wakanohana III with 9 JY to 5 Y, making for a ratio of 0.36, whereas the best was Asashōryū, with 8 JY to 25 Y for a ratio of 0.76, better than even Hakuhō with 0.67. Against his yokozuna peers, Kisenosato's 12 JY to 2 Y absolutely pales in comparison, making him less than half of Wakanohana III with a ratio of 0.14.

Kisenosato is much more at home amongst ōzeki, who average 4.89 JY to 1.56 Y for a ratio of 0.24. That matches up remarkably well with the average ōzeki's ratio of 0.25. Mitakeumi stands out for having the absolute best ratio of 1, having no JY to his name (I'm sure there's a joke to be made out of this), and Takayasu and Miyabiyama are naturally looking at ratios of 0 with their inability to score yūshō (and Takayasu continuing to run up the score with at least one JY added since his ōzeki tenure ended). But the rest of the ōzeki crowd are looking at relatively tight ratios of 0.1 to 0.3, with Tochiazuma, Kaiō, and Dejima being the only ones to score above 0.3, and Tochiazuma being the only one to score 0.38 and exceed Wakanohana III's ratio. 

So that seems to prove my initial reaction, in that Kisenosato's JY to Y ratio is atypical of a yokozuna and more like an ōzeki. Which is a fair statement, because his yokozuna career never really got started and therefore for all intents and purposes he peaked as an ōzeki. But to make it fairer for him, what about if we compared the all the above yokozuna at the point of their promotion?

Yokozuna	JY/D	Y	Ratio
Terunofuji	7	4	0.36
Kisenosato	12	1	0.08
Kakuryū	4	1	0.20
Harumafuji	3	4	0.57
Hakuhō	5	3	0.38
Asashōryū	2	2	0.50
Musashimaru	10	5	0.33
Wakanohana	7	5	0.42
Takanohana	4	7	0.64
Akebono	1	3	0.75
Average	5.50	3.50	0.39

I'm sorry, he just looks worse here. He has the double ignominy of clocking the most JY and clocking the least Y prior to promotion, which puts his ratio at an absolutely abysmal 0.08. The next worst was Kakuryū with 0.2. The only other rikishi to reach double digit JY prior to yokozuna promotion was Musashimaru, perhaps the best analogue to Kisenosato as being a strong, consistent ōzeki, but even Musashimaru had accumulated 5 yūshō prior to his promotion for a respectable ratio of 0.33. So even amongst yokozuna potentiates, Kisenosato just couldn't match his peers when it came to at least being able to secure yūshō, not to mention trying for them back to back.

Thanks as always for the deep dive.  I looked at the JY/Y ratio because I vaguely thought that a lot of JY's w/o a Y would be emblematic of "always a bridesmaid, never a bride."  The only comparable ratio is Wakanohana Kanji II, but a closer look shows that most of his Y's and JY's were after he reached Yokozuna (and 3 JY's were during his last years).

I didn't specifically consider doten because that would perhaps indicate a different type of "choke", if applicable.

All things said, Kisenosato stands out for the number of JY in his career.  I came to Ozumo late, so I can't say what the vibe was while he was an Ozeki.  But it sure makes for a good discussion.

[Seiyashi 2,439]

8 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I was thinking more about the times as Ozeki and/or Yokozuna rather than the entirety of their Makuuchi careers.  Or at least after their first promotion.

Alright. As a point of order, would a deep dive into comparing Y/O performances be better in the Ozumo Discussions or the Sumo Information subforum?

Edited May 25 by Seiyashi

[Jakusotsu 4,426]

12 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

He was Kyokutaisei's last nail in the coffin, last time out in Nagoya.

You had me startled there. The coffin isn't shut for good yet.

[RabidJohn 1,096]

16 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Kise could choke, but he also had Hakuho, Harumafuji, and Kakuryu to deal with at the end of most basho...

Which is why I always disagreed with the notion that he was a choker, tbh. That was the rep he had here, though...
He was an exceptionally good rikishi who could probably have been a dai-yokozuna, if only he hadn't had the Mongolian contingent to deal with.

I didn't expect such a large tangential discussion on this topic!

Edited May 25 by RabidJohn

[lackmaker 350]

What must we make of this Hakuho guy(22 JY/D) falling short so often?

[Seiyashi 2,439]

1 minute ago, lackmaker said:

What must we make of this Hakuho guy(22 JY/D) falling short so often?

As I recall, they made a lot of him in other aspects....

[Gospodin 135]

Remembering the years of discussions here for "disappointing" time and again, it´s somehow surreal to read through a conversation whether he did now.

[rhyen 1,399]

20 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

I have a question for the sumo pundits on this forum:

Rising star Atamifuji is a relative newcomer to the sekitori ranks.  Despite this being his second tournament in the Juryo ranks, he is still wearing his mage flat (i.e., no oicho).  I had always assumed that the oicho mage was a privilege reserved for sekitori.  Of course, most of us have seen sekitori with their hair still loose, and this is usually attributed to their hair not being long enough to gather in a mage topknot.  But when I look at Atamifuji's current mage, it is clear to me that his hair is longer (and thicker) than several veteran sekitori, whose mage look smaller and shorter in comparison.  What is the precise criteria for a wrestler's hair to be eligible for oicho mage grooming?

I doubt age is the determining factor.  But as explained above, hair length does not appear to be the ultimate factor either.  The only other thing I can think of is the number of tournaments a wrestler has competed in.  But that doesn't make a lot of sense to me either.

After Atamifuji's impressive double-digit record this tournament, he looks set to be a sekitori mainstay, if not a Top Division star.  I will be even more puzzled if he doesn't show up with a oicho-mage next tournament! 

It is length, the Oicho mage must form 2 fan shapes. A head wide one at the back and a small visible one on top. 

[dingo 541]

I find it strange to look at JY/Y ratio as a measure of performance. I'm not sure what is the thesis/proposal in this case. Since JY is the second best result in a basho, to me the number of JY implies consistency and ability to compete at a top level, not as a component to measure of lack of performance. The rikishi who have less JY did not finish as a runner up in a basho and therefore performed worse than the JY winner. Therefore as a measure of top level performance it would be better to simply add the number of JY+Y, not divide them into a ratio. 

Regarding Kisenosato as a choker, iirc the reputation came from losing 1 or 2 critical bouts that were needed to challenge Hakuho's results, not losing 4 in a row like Takayasu. 

[Seiyashi 2,439]

14 minutes ago, dingo said:

I find it strange to look at JY/Y ratio as a measure of performance. I'm not sure what is the thesis/proposal in this case. Since JY is the second best result in a basho, to me the number of JY implies consistency and ability to compete at a top level, not as a component to measure of lack of performance. The rikishi who have less JY did not finish as a runner up in a basho and therefore performed worse than the JY winner. Therefore as a measure of top level performance it would be better to simply add the number of JY+Y, not divide them into a ratio. 

Regarding Kisenosato as a choker, iirc the reputation came from losing 1 or 2 critical bouts that were needed to challenge Hakuho's results, not losing 4 in a row like Takayasu. 

I don't think there was a thesis advanced per se rather than just confirming Yamanashi's gut feel that Kise's JY/Y ratio was weird relative to his peers, and now we know why. That said, stay tuned...