Kintamayama

GTB Natsu 2022- Results!!

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

Hello everyone,

Results will be late as there is a monoii due to some issues I had with multiple entries by mail and trying to discern which entry was the last. Patience. One thing is for sure-the yusho was won by a pretty large margin by someone -his fourth yusho..

'his' - so not Sakura then?

Edit: Trying very hard to remember - and so have just checked. I have won the yusho three times in the past*, and I am a 'him' - it could be me!

 

*Last time was in 2008, so I strongly doubt that I am the one ;-)

 

Edited by Jejima

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11 minutes ago, Jejima said:

'his' - so not Sakura then?

 

 

Gender-free--

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Posted (edited)

56.

Banzuke makers are just trolling us. Why would they split Aoiyama/Myogiryu, Okinoumi/Chiyoshoma/Sadanoumi and Tochinoshin/Nishikigi ?
I don't see any other reason .... well maybe too much sake but there is always too much sake.

Edited by Oortael
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Posted (edited)

final results will be tallied in a few hours. Some of the emails went straight to my spam folder, luckily I double-checked and caught them in time. Since there are no ramifications for the yusho racer-I will reveal that it's Itachiyama, 67 points, who had a 5-point lead over runnerups Ganzohnesushi. and Heriokuno. No less than 18 newbies, even with the entry problem, one of them placing tenth.

A formal summary will follow when we get the formal results, whereupon the site will be updated.

Apologies. Hopefully, no more problems.

 

Edited by Kintamayama
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14 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

I think I finished with 54. They broke a lot of my assumptions (e.g. Oho > Ichiyamamoto). I'll be curious to see what pops out if I redo my picks with more emphasis on not over- or under- promoting.

If you compare the patterns of how they weighed rank vs. record and handled over/under-promoting/demoting between March and May, it's almost diametrically opposed. Basically, the more a prediction factored in recent patterns, the worse it would do this time. 

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41 minutes ago, Reonito said:

If you compare the patterns of how they weighed rank vs. record and handled over/under-promoting/demoting between March and May, it's almost diametrically opposed.

I think they do this kind of stuff on purpose so that no one can ever truly guess what they're going to come up with.

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4 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I think they do this kind of stuff on purpose so that no one can ever truly guess what they're going to come up with.

It would be interesting to line up the career achievements of a rikishi vs how much they get over-promoted or under-promoted. You have to think they are in there trying to do justice to each individual rikishi, but it wouldn't surprise me if most of the people in the room have unconscious bias favoring, for example, Kagayaki over Chiyomaru.

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15 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I think they do this kind of stuff on purpose so that no one can ever truly guess what they're going to come up with.

I like this take, though I'm not sure it passes Hanlon's razor.

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10 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

It would be interesting to line up the career achievements of a rikishi vs how much they get over-promoted or under-promoted. You have to think they are in there trying to do justice to each individual rikishi, but it wouldn't surprise me if most of the people in the room have unconscious bias favoring, for example, Kagayaki over Chiyomaru.

They have very conscious biases—these are oyakata, not neutral parties.

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47 for me I think. Not too bad, my most obvious mistake was to drop Meisei too far, which didn't help me avoid a lot of zeroes towards the bottom of the division.

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3 hours ago, Reonito said:

If you compare the patterns of how they weighed rank vs. record and handled over/under-promoting/demoting between March and May, it's almost diametrically opposed. Basically, the more a prediction factored in recent patterns, the worse it would do this time. 

I know I said I was going to recalculate based on a "more strict adherence to convention" but as soon as I got to the LOLfest of Aoiyama-Chiyoshoma-Myogiryu-Sadanoumi I just threw up my hands and said forget it.

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14 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Hello everyone,

Results will be late as there is a monoii due to some issues I had with multiple entries by mail and trying to discern which entry was the last. Patience. One thing is for sure-the yusho was won by a pretty large margin by someone -his fourth yusho..

Personally I would prefer to hear this after results are out (Protesting...)

I consider it a spoiler.

I know  my chances are small but I live in hope.(Praying...)

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3 minutes ago, Fujisan said:

Personally I would prefer to hear this after results are out (Protesting...)

I consider it a spoiler.

I know  my chances are small but I live in hope.(Praying...)

I gave up hope when [the winner] posted a score in here that was 13-14 points higher than my own :)

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Posted (edited)

Itachiyama wins his fourth yusho by a big margin- congrats!! 132 participants, 18 newbies, huge site problems notwithstanding. As I always say, get your guesses in early- nothing is gonna change till the Banzuke announcement and there is no reason to wait till the last minute... If I didn't get your mail this time, I apologize-this is the final result. Next time, knowing the problems we are having, get your entries in earlier and avoid ogmat nefesh.

Milestones:

Kotononami- 90th basho

Torafujii- 90th basho

Pandaazuma- 70th basho

Tzutziyama- 30th basho

Oortael- 20th basho

Special thanks to Andoreasu who waded through the myriad of mail entries and to Doitsuyama who made a great effort to revive the site.

Thanks for playing and to see how you did, go here:

And now, on with the Ba-show!!

Edited by Kintamayama
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3 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

I gave up hope when [the winner] posted a score in here that was 13-14 points higher than my own :)

Oh, but Fujisan was so close.. So close.I'm sure he knows exactly how close he was. He does love his complaining.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

I gave up hope when [the winner] posted a score in here that was 13-14 points higher than my own :)

I hadn't counted mine because I lost my entry,a regular habit of mine.(Inastateofconfusion...)

Edited by Fujisan
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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Oh, but Fujisan was so close.. So close.I'm sure he knows exactly how close he was. He does love his complaining.

Do I detect a bit of sarcasm  there? 

I have had worse bashos and I've had better ones,including  a few top ten finishes.

Best results was 3rd,worst was 107th

Edited by Fujisan

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16 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Itachiyama wins his fourth yusho by a big margin- congrats!! 131 participants, 18 newbies, huge site problems notwithstanding. As I always say, get your guesses in early- nothing is gonna change till the Banzuke announcement and there is no reason to wait till the last minute... If I didn't get your mail this time, I apologize-this is the final result. Next time, knowing the problems we are having, get your entries in earlier and avoid ogmat nefesh.

Milestones:

Kotononami- 90th basho

Torafujii- 90th basho

Pandaazuma- 70th basho

Tzutziyama- 30th basho

Oortael- 20th basho

 

Thanks for playing and to see how you did, go here:

And now, on with the Ba-show!!

Since I have 5 under my belt and figured out the scoring system I will send out a preview of the July overall rankings to let everyone see their starting position heading into the next contest.

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1 minute ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

Since I have 5 under my belt and figured out the scoring system I will send out a preview of the July overall rankings to let everyone see their starting position heading into the next contest.

Anything you do to make this more fun is appreciated.

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I was expecting to get murdered considering how everyone is complaining about the arbitrariness of the banzuke, then I check and see this is my best result in 7 basho. The heck? 

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24 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I was expecting to get murdered considering how everyone is complaining about the arbitrariness of the banzuke, then I check and see this is my best result in 7 basho. The heck? 

Maybe the arbitrariness played in your favor? ;-)

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On 18/04/2022 at 09:48, Seiyashi said:
Terunofuji Y  
Mitakeumi O Shodai
  O Takakeisho
Wakatakakage S Abi
Hoshoryu K Daieisho
Takayasu 1 Ichinojo
Kiribayama 2 Kotonowaka
Hokutofuji 3 Tamawashi
Endo 4 Takanosho
Onosho 5 Tobizaru
Wakamotoharu 6 Takarafuji
Ura 7 Shimanoumi
Kotoeko 8 Terutsuyoshi
Kotoshoho 9 Tochinoshin
Nishikigi 10 Meisei
Aoiyama 11 Myogiryu
Okinoumi 12 Chiyoshoma
Sadanoumi 13 Chiyotairyu
Ichiyamamoto 14 Ishiura
Oho 15 Azumaryu
Midorifuji 16 Chiyomaru
Yutakayama 17 Kotokuzan

 

Pasting from Excel seems to work but it doesn't keep more sophisticated formatting like borders, unlike with Google Sheets.

And I am using Edge, which nowadays is built on the same Chromium base as Chrome anyway. So some other chicanery is at work here.

I haven't referred back to the official banzuke but did you get a clean sweep all the way down through M5?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Maybe the arbitrariness played in your favor? ;-)

I think what did play in my favour was getting the jōi much more right than I usually do. In Hatsu and Haru I completely whiffed half of the jōi and even got the sanyaku the wrong way round, so that cost a lot for a relatively "fixed" area of the banzuke.

In this case, it was a free 36 points from the top of the table with everything up to M5 correct, and I just needed some more lucky hits down the rest of the banzuke to run up the score. In particular Terutsuyoshi, Kotoshohō, and the two Caucasian rikishi were 8 points and I got a smattering of 1s from elsewhere. I did get hit as badly as everyone else in terms of the arbitrary stuff like Ishiura vs Meisei, the 5-10 maegashira trio, keeping Chiyomaru etcetc, but since apparently most people got whacked on that front, arguably that's a wash for the whole field.

I'll take that as an improvement in my 7th bashō that I can finally sorta get the jōi correct, especially since the rest of the banzuke tends to be a bit more of a crapshoot anyway.

EDIT: On taking a closer look, when I say best result, I mean in terms of rank - this is the highest in the field I've scored, but not actually the highest in terms of points I've scored. My best was actually 55 points for 9-6 in Kyūshū 2021 which got me 52nd, with a comparable performance in the jōi. So yeah, I guess the arbitrariness that knocked points off other people did play in my favour after all.

Also, is it just me, or are the GTB results for Haru not updated as well? I should have 7 bashō according to the results page, but only 5 bashō worth of results are displayed in my own results page, missing the 6th (allowing for update delay for the 7th).

Edited by Seiyashi

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

I haven't referred back to the official banzuke but did you get a clean sweep all the way down through M5?

Yes I did! Just checked. Isn't the jōi fairly easy to predict, though, with the sanyaku serving as a constraining limit on how they can be organised? It was fairly clear that three of the incumbents would hold serve, so between Daieishō and Takayasu for K1w, despite what the numbers say, it was pretty obvious to me Daieishō was going to get it given the recent penchant for underpromotions and Takayasu pulling bridesmaid duty again.

The rest of the jōi was pretty uncontentious after that, since by the numbers that's supposedly exactly where they shake out. Endō, Takanoshō and Ōnoshō are all tied, though, so it really was luck there, and the wheels started coming off by Wakamotoharu despite the numbers clearly showing him at M6E. Ura really lucked out there.

Edited by Seiyashi

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Congratulations to @Itachiyama for the win. Good work!

I was shocked to find out that I had 61 points. I hadn't felt as unhappy about an entry in a long time.

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