Reonito

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Haru 2022

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With day 10 completed, I figured I'd start this topic since no one has yet. I'd love for the usual gurus to lead it, but I think @Asashosakari@Gurowake@Sakura all have a lot on their plate. I won't do this justice like they would have, and of course everyone else is more than welcome to contribute, but at least we'll have a place to do so.

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As a starting point: Day 10

Ozeki

O2w Mitakeumi has his 8 wins in his debut at the rank. O1w Takakeisho (7-3) needs one more win to clear kadoban. O1e Shodai (5-5) needs to go 3-2 or better the rest of the way to avoid dropping to:

Sekiwake

S1e Wakatakakage (9-1) will continue at his current rank. S1w Abi (6-4) needs two wins to hold rank, and one to limit his fall to:

Komusubi

K1e Takanosho (2-8) will be fighting in the maegashira ranks in May. K1w Hoshoryu (4-6) needs a finish of 4-1 or better to avoid joining him.

San'yaku candidates

The leading candidates to claim the 1-3 san'yaku slots that could be available are M7e Takayasu (10-0), M6w Kotonowaka (9-1), M2e Ichinojo (6-4), M4e Kiribayama (7-3), and M1e Daieisho (5-5), who would jump to the head of the queue with a kachi-koshi by virtue of his status as the top maegashira. The only other realistic contender IMO is M4w Endo (6-4).

Demotion candidates

Almost certainly going down: Chiyonokuni

In deep trouble: Ichiyamamoto, Akua, Kagayaki

Still need more than one win: Kotokuzan, Chiyomaru

Promotion candidates

Coming up: Oho

Excellent shot at promotion: Azumaryu

Fair shot at promotion: Midorifuji, Mitoryu

Could earn promotion with a very strong finish: Hidenoumi, Kitanowaka, Tsurugisho, Kaisei

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7 hours ago, Reonito said:

As a starting point: Day 10

Ozeki

 

O2w Mitakeumi has his 8 wins in his debut at the rank. O1w Takakeisho (7-3) needs one more win to clear kadoban. O1e Shodai (5-5) needs to go 3-2 or better the rest of the way to avoid dropping to:

Sekiwake

 

 

S1e Wakatakakage (9-1) will continue at his current rank. S1w Abi (6-4) needs two wins to hold rank, and one to limit his fall to:

Komusubi

 

 

K1e Takanosho (2-8) will be fighting in the maegashira ranks in May. K1w Hoshoryu (4-6) needs a finish of 4-1 or better to avoid joining him.

San'yaku candidates

 

The leading candidates to claim the 1-3 san'yaku slots that could be available are M7e Takayasu (10-0), M6w Kotonowaka (9-1), M2e Ichinojo (6-4), M4e Kiribayama (7-3), and M1e Daieisho (5-5), who would jump to the head of the queue with a kachi-koshi by virtue of his status as the top maegashira. The only other realistic contender IMO is M4w Endo (6-4).

Demotion candidates

 

 

Almost certainly going down: Chiyonokuni

 

In deep trouble: Ichiyamamoto, Akua, Kagayaki

 

Still need more than one win: Kotokuzan, Chiyomaru

 

Promotion candidates

Coming up: Oho

 

Excellent shot at promotion: Azumaryu

 

Fair shot at promotion: Midorifuji, Mitoryu

 

Could earn promotion with a very strong finish: Hidenoumi, Kitanowaka, Tsurugisho, Kaisei

 

With Chiyonokuni coming back, that certainty might change with 1 or 2 wins I think. Of course, Akua and the pair of M17 Rikishi are almost certain to fall if they can't win out (or for Akua, get to probably 6 wins.) Kotokuzan is in a better spot than Chiyomaru right now, hovering around that 50% mark W-L improves his chances I feel, as a 7-8 might not necessarily bring him down.  

We know already that Oho is up, and Azumaryu will follow. As you said, Midorifuji and Mitoryu are still candidates, and both are in the Yusho zone too. 

For Makushita-Juryo, Kotoyusho and Takakento are down. Shimazuumi is fighting for it (at 5-6, he isn't in danger totally but a 7-8 would be it.) Hakuyozan and Churanoumi are also down there in terms of poorrecords, with Haku especially needing to win out while Churanoumi needs 2 or 3 wins. Coming up with near (In the case of Tochi) 100% certainty are Chiyoarashi and Tochimaru. Hokuseiho is a dark horse pick, as at 5-1 he has an outsider chance but Ms6 Chiyonoumi might mess things up. Nishikawa is also someone to watch for, 3-3 at Ms3e. Has a chance. 

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9 hours ago, Chartorenji said:

With Chiyonokuni coming back, that certainty might change with 1 or 2 wins I think.

Ah, hadn't seen that when I wrote this, thanks.

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After Day 11:

Yusho arasoi:

10-1: S1e Wakatakakage, M7e Takayasu
9-2: O2w Mitakeumi, M6w Kotonowaka
8-3: O1w Takakeisho, M15w Tochinoshin

Sanyaku:

    3-3-5 Terunofuji    Y 
(2) 6-5	  Shodai        O   Takakeisho 8-3 (o)
                        O   Mitakeumi  9-2
(o) 10-1  Wakatakakage  S   Abi        6-5 (1)
(x) 2-9	  Takanosho     K   Hoshoryu   5-6 (3)

    5-6   Daieisho      M1
    7-4   Ichinojo      M2  Tamawashi  5-6
    5-6   Onosho        M3  
    7-4   Kiribayama    M4  Endo       7-4
                        M5
                        M6  Kotonowaka 9-2
    10-1  Takayasu      M7

Makuuchi-Juryo:

                   M5   Ishiura      1-4-6 (1)
                   M6
                   M7   Okinoumi     3-8   (o)
                   M8   Sadanoumi    3-8   (0)
                   M9
                   M10
                   M11
                   M12  Chiyotairyu  5-6   (0)
(2) 4-7 Chiyomaru  M13  Chiyonokuni  4-3-4 (2)
(0) 6-5 Kotoshoho  M14  Yutakayama   6-5   (0)
(4) 3-8 Akua       M15
(o) 7-4 Nishikigi  M16  Kotokuzan    5-6   (2)
(4) 4-7 Kagayaki   M17  Ichiyamamoto 4-7   (4)

(o) 8-3 Oho        J1   Tsurugisho   5-6   (3)
(1) 8-3 Azumaryu   J2   Hidenoumi    5-6   (4)
(~) 4-7 Kaisei     J3   Tohakuryu    4-7   (~)
                   J4
                   J5
(2) 9-2 Midorifuji J6
(2) 9-2 Mitoryu    J7
                   J8
                   J9
(4) 9-2 Kitanowaka J10

Juryo-Makushita:

                     J6  Shohozan    3-8 (1)
                     J7
                     J8  Daishomaru  4-7 (1)
                     J9  Bushozan    5-6 (o)
                     J10 Churanoumi  3-8 (3)
(2) 4-7 Hiradoumi    J11
(3) 4-7 Hakuyozan    J12 Atamifuji   5-6 (2)
                     J13 Shimazuumi  5-6 (2)
(x) 3-8 Takakento    J14 Kotoyusho   3-8 (x)

(o) 4-2 Chiyoarashi  Ms1 Tochimaru   4-2
(x) 2-4 Kanno        Ms2
    3-3 Nishikawa    Ms3
    3-3 Tsushimanada Ms4 Oshoma      3-3
(~) 3-3 Fukai        Ms5 Hokuseiho   5-1
(1) 6-0 Chiyonoumi   Ms6

Juryo yusho arasoi:

9-2: Midorifuji, Mitoryu, Kitanowaka, Ryuden
8-3: Oho, Azumaryu, Enho

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5 hours ago, Sue said:

After Day 11:

Yusho arasoi:

 

Thank you for doing this properly.

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5 hours ago, Sue said:

Juryo-Makushita:

I'm curious about the makushita promotion priority order. Seems like with two open slots, Ms1e Chiyoarashi (4-2) must go up no matter what, and so would Chiyonoumi with a win to go 7-0. Could Tochimaru get left out yet again even with a 5-2? Would a 6-1 Hokuseiho be ahead of a 4-3 Tochimaru? And where would a 5-2 Hokuseiho slot in among the potential 4-3's?

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I would suggest that those marked with (0) are already safe. 

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4 hours ago, Reonito said:

I'm curious about the makushita promotion priority order. Seems like with two open slots, Ms1e Chiyoarashi (4-2) must go up no matter what, and so would Chiyonoumi with a win to go 7-0. Could Tochimaru get left out yet again even with a 5-2? Would a 6-1 Hokuseiho be ahead of a 4-3 Tochimaru? And where would a 5-2 Hokuseiho slot in among the potential 4-3's?

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201907#Ms

Ms4w Kaishō (4-3) was promoted over Ms5w Wakamotoharu (5-2). In fact no 5-2 Ms5 has been promoted to Juryō since 2013.

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5th loss in a row for Hakuyozan, now 4-8 at J12e, and Churanoumi is in a lot of danger with a 3-9 at J10w. 

Looking increasingly likely that we'll see at least 3 demotions, which I believe would be enough for Tochimaru to get promoted even if he goes 4-3 and Chiyonoumi finishes 7-0 (they'd both be promoted, along with Chiyorashi). I think regardless of Hokuseiho going 6-1 or 5-2 that a 4-3 Tochimaru would edge him out for a third spot, requiring a 4th demotion for Hokuseiho to go up. 

Shohozan is still in danger with a 3-9 at J6. One more win should keep him in juryo, but maybe retirement would still be a possibility given how poor he's been? He'd have to announce it quickly to open another spot of course...

Edited by Katooshu
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1 hour ago, Katooshu said:

5th loss in a row for Hakuyozan, now 4-8 at J12e, and Churanoumi is in a lot of danger with a 3-9 at J10w. 

Looking increasingly likely that we'll see at least 3 demotions, which I believe would be enough for Tochimaru to get promoted even if he goes 4-3 and Chiyonoumi finishes 7-0 (they'd both be promoted, along with Chiyorashi). I think regardless of Hokuseiho going 6-1 or 5-2 that a 4-3 Tochimaru would edge him out for a third spot, requiring a 4th demotion for Hokuseiho to go up. 

Shohozan is still in danger with a 3-9 at J6. One more win should keep him in juryo, but maybe retirement would still be a possibility given how poor he's been? He'd have to announce it quickly to open another spot of course...

Kotoyusho, Takakento, Churanoumi, and Hokuyozan are the four really in trouble I feel. Should be Chiyoarashi, Chiyonoumi (With Yusho, of course) Tochimaru, then Hokuseiho (If 6-1, though 5-2 is possible given the next sentence). Of course, with Shohozan nearing decline badly/retiring point and Shimazuumi not fully in yet, we could see even more chaos, and is where we look to Nishikawa (who faces Hokuyozan tomorrow) and Tsushimanada (Fukai is also an option, but that would require extraordinary circumstance given rank.) The Makushita Joi will be interesting too next basho, as multiple of Hokuseiho/Nishikawa/Tsushimanada/Fukai will most like be in it, and the falls of the J14's, and potentially Hokuyozan and Churanoumi could be fun, but I'm getting ahead of myself:-)

For Makuuchi-Juryo, Akua looks more and more in danger with every bout, while the M17 pair are hanging on by a thread. Others to watch for are Ishiura, who's neck is still screwed, and Chiyomaru, who is on a poor streak and isn't proving to be getting better. Oho and Azymaryu have to go up, while Midorifuji and Mitoryu need to go 2-1 or more to be considered, which could prove good for the borderline pair of Ishiura and Chiyomaru (in terms of losing records.) 

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(SumoDB is down; apologies for any errors.)

After Day 12:

Yusho arasoi:

11-1: S1e Wakatakakage, M7e Takayasu
10-2: dare mo inai
9-3: O2w Mitakeumi, M6w Kotonowaka

Sanyaku:

    3-3-6 Terunofuji    Y 
(1) 7-5	  Shodai        O   Takakeisho 8-4
                        O   Mitakeumi  9-3
    11-1  Wakatakakage  S   Abi        6-6 (1)
(x) 3-9	  Takanosho     K   Hoshoryu   6-6 (2)

    5-7   Daieisho      M1
    8-4   Ichinojo      M2  Tamawashi  6-6
(x) 5-7   Onosho        M3  
    8-4   Kiribayama    M4  Endo       7-5
                        M5
                        M6  Kotonowaka 9-3
    11-1  Takayasu      M7

Makuuchi-Juryo:

                    M5   Ishiura      1-5-6 (1)
                    ... 
(2) 4-8 Chiyomaru   M13  Chiyonokuni  5-3-4 (1)
                    M14  
(x) 3-9 Akua        M15
                    M16  Kotokuzan    6-6   (1)
(3) 5-7 Kagayaki    M17  Ichiyamamoto 5-7   (3)

(o) 9-3 Oho         J1   Tsurugisho   6-6   (2)
(0) 9-3 Azumaryu    J2   Hidenoumi    6-6   (3)
(x) 4-8 Kaisei      J3   Tohakuryu    5-7   (~)
                    J4
                    J5
(2) 9-3 Midorifuji  J6
(2) 9-3 Mitoryu     J7
                    J8
                    J9
(x) 9-3 Kitanowaka  J10

Juryo-Makushita:

                     J6  Shohozan    3-9 (1)
                     J7
                     J8  Daishomaru  4-8 (1)
                     J9 
                     J10 Churanoumi  3-9 (3)
(1) 5-7 Hiradoumi    J11
(3) 4-8 Hakuyozan    J12 Atamifuji   6-6 (1)
                     J13 Shimazuumi  6-6 (1)
(x) 3-8 Takakento    J14 Kotoyusho   3-8 (x)

(o) 4-2 Chiyoarashi  Ms1 Tochimaru   4-2
                     Ms2
    3-3 Nishikawa    Ms3
    3-3 Tsushimanada Ms4 Oshoma      3-4 (x)
(~) 3-3 Fukai        Ms5 Hokuseiho   5-1
(1) 6-0 Chiyonoumi   Ms6

Juryo yusho arasoi:

10-2: Ryuden
9-3: Oho, Azumaryu, Enho, Midorifuji, Mitoryu, Kitanowaka

Edited by Sue
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Kinbozan yusho and Hakuyozan with a 9th loss - Tochimaru should be good for juryo now with at least 3 openings likely and Chiyonoumi surely behind him in promotion order. Nishikawa, Hokuseiho, Chiyonoumi, and Tsushimanada (if he gets a 4th win) all still in the promotion race for whatever else opens.

Edited by Katooshu

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For Makuuchi-Juryo:

Akua is going down. Ichiyamamoto, Chiyomaru, and Kagayaki all need to win out. Kotokuzan should just need 1 win to take the M17 spot next basho. The injured pair of Chiyonokuni and Ishiura are also in that same spot, with one looking in a lot more in danger than the other. 

That opens anywhere from 1 to 7 (!) spots if none of the wrestlers I mentioned can reach their marks. Oho and Azumaryu are almost 100% going up. Midorifuji and Mitoryu probably need to win out (though Midorifuji may just need 1 more win.) Tsurugisho, Hidenoumi, and Tohakuryu all can still get their Kachi-Koshi's, with Hidenoumi needing just 1 win while the other 2 need to win out. If the JSA are desperate for promotions, then they can look for Daiamami at J5, who needs to win out himself (but that is rather unlikely) 

 

Makushita-Juryo was already mentioned by @Katooshu but I'll go over how I see it.

Takakento, Kotoyusho, Hakuyozan, and potentially the pair of Churanoumi and Shohozan. Churanoumi needs to win out while Shohozan needs just 1 more win, which in his current state of sumo, might not happen. Shimazuumi is safe and Atamifuji just needs 1 more win. 

For risers. Chiyoarashi and Tochimaru are 100% up. Due to Kinbozan's Yusho, the third spot should go to Nishikawa, winner of January 2022 Makushita Yusho, should get the third spot. The potential 4th spot will go to Hokuseiho if he wins, and most likely Chiyonoumi if he is defeated (jumping pass Tsushimanada and Fukai if they can get their Kachi-Koshi's (if my math is correct lmao)) 

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After Day 13:

Yusho arasoi:

12-1: M7e Takayasu
11-2: S1e Wakatakakage
10-3: O2w Mitakeumi, M6w Kotonowaka

Sanyaku:

    3-3-7 Terunofuji    Y 
(1) 7-6	  Shodai        O   Takakeisho 8-5
                        O   Mitakeumi  10-3
    11-2  Wakatakakage  S   Abi        7-6 (1 for S, o for K)
(x) 4-9	  Takanosho     K   Hoshoryu   6-7 (2)

    6-7   Daieisho      M1
    9-4   Ichinojo      M2  Tamawashi  6-7 (x)
                        M3  
    9-4   Kiribayama    M4  Endo       7-6 (x)
                        M5
                        M6  Kotonowaka 10-3
    12-1  Takayasu      M7

Makuuchi-Juryo:

                    M5   Ishiura      1-6-6 (1)
                    ... 
(2) 4-9 Chiyomaru   M13  Chiyonokuni  5-4-4 (1)
                    M14  
(x) 3-10 Akua       M15
                    M16  Kotokuzan    6-7   (o)
(2) 6-7 Kagayaki    M17  Ichiyamamoto 6-7   (2)

(o) 9-4 Oho         J1   Tsurugisho   6-7   (2)
(0) 10-3 Azumaryu   J2   Hidenoumi    7-6   (2)
                    J3   Tohakuryu    6-7   (x)
                    J4
                    J5
(1) 10-3 Midorifuji J6
(2) 9-4 Mitoryu     J7

Juryo-Makushita:

                     J6  Shohozan    3-10 (1)
                     J7
                     J8  Daishomaru  5-8 (o)
                     J9 
                     J10 Churanoumi  4-9 (2)
(o) 6-7 Hiradoumi    J11
(x) 4-9 Hakuyozan    J12 Atamifuji   6-7 (1)
                     J13 Shimazuumi  7-6 (o)
(x) 5-8 Takakento    J14 Kotoyusho   4-9 (x)

(o) 4-2 Chiyoarashi  Ms1 Tochimaru   4-2 (o)
                     Ms2
    4-3 Nishikawa    Ms3
    3-3 Tsushimanada Ms4
(~) 3-3 Fukai        Ms5 Hokuseiho   5-1 (o)
(~) 6-1 Chiyonoumi   Ms6

Juryo yusho arasoi:

11-2: Ryuden
10-3: Azumaryu, Midorifuji
9-4: OhoEnhoMitoryu, Kitanowaka

Edited by Sue
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13 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Kinbozan yusho and Hakuyozan with a 9th loss - Tochimaru should be good for juryo now with at least 3 openings likely and Chiyonoumi surely behind him in promotion order. Nishikawa, Hokuseiho, Chiyonoumi, and Tsushimanada (if he gets a 4th win) all still in the promotion race for whatever else opens.

I don't think Chiyonoumi is in it, as he is below the Ms5 "invisible line" and we won't have a desperate need for an extra juryo rikishi.

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10 hours ago, Chartorenji said:

If the JSA are desperate for promotions, then they can look for Daiamami at J5, who needs to win out himself (but that is rather unlikely)

If there are any borderline calls, I think Ishiura and Chiyonokuni would get to stay even with two losses (and it's not impossible that so would Kotokuzan)

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18 hours ago, Chartorenji said:

Churanoumi needs to win out while Shohozan needs just 1 more win, which in his current state of sumo, might not happen. Shimazuumi is safe and Atamifuji just needs 1 more win. 

For risers. Chiyoarashi and Tochimaru are 100% up. Due to Kinbozan's Yusho, the third spot should go to Nishikawa, winner of January 2022 Makushita Yusho, should get the third spot. The potential 4th spot will go to Hokuseiho if he wins, and most likely Chiyonoumi if he is defeated (jumping pass Tsushimanada and Fukai if they can get their Kachi-Koshi's (if my math is correct lmao)) 

Again, Shohozan and Atamifuji have already done enough to stay if the promotion cases are borderline, as would Churanoumi with one more win. Chiyonoumi is outside the promotion zone. We have three clear promotions in the two Ms1s and Nishikawa. Only Hokuseiho with 6 wins would have a strong enough case to force down Shohozan, Atamifuji, or Churanoumi if he finishes 5-10. If Churanoumi loses out and a 4th promotion is needed, I think the order would be: 1. Hokuseiho with a win, 2. Tsushimanada with a win, 3. Hokuseiho with a loss. Fukai is out of contention.

Edited by Reonito

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6 hours ago, Reonito said:

I don't think Chiyonoumi is in it, as he is below the Ms5 "invisible line" and we won't have a desperate need for an extra juryo rikishi.

I had him as a (~) rather than a (x) just because it's mathematically possible for there to be up to six demotions. There'd be a need to go outside the Ms5 promotion zone if there are five or six demotions, and both Tsushimanada and Fukai finish with a MK. It's very unlikely, especially with two of the endangered only needing a single win each. And it's probably just as likely that one or both of them would be underdemoted as it is that they'd reach down to Ms6.

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31 minutes ago, Sue said:

I had him as a (~) rather than a (x) just because it's mathematically possible for there to be up to six demotions. There'd be a need to go outside the Ms5 promotion zone if there are five or six demotions, and both Tsushimanada and Fukai finish with a MK. It's very unlikely, especially with two of the endangered only needing a single win each. And it's probably just as likely that one or both of them would be underdemoted as it is that they'd reach down to Ms6.

Last time they underdemoted Kotoyusho with a worse rank-win combo than Shohozan or Atamifuji already have rather than promote Tochimaru, who was above the invisible line...

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Any chance Takakento can stay in juryo with a 7-8 at J14e? I had pretty much stopped paying attention to him once he reached 3-8, but he's won 3 straight. Facing 3-3 Ms5e Fukai tomorrow. 

Edited by Katooshu

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9 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Any chance Takakento can stay in juryo with a 7-8 at J14e? I had pretty much stopped paying attention to him once he reached 3-8, but he's won 3 straight. Facing 3-3 Ms5e Fukai tomorrow. 

Think he will stay up with 7 if any of Churanoumi. Atamifuji or Hokuseiho lose.

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9 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Any chance Takakento can stay in juryo with a 7-8 at J14e? I had pretty much stopped paying attention to him once he reached 3-8, but he's won 3 straight. Facing 3-3 Ms5e Fukai tomorrow. 

Potentially, a 7-8 would make him less demotable than a 6-9 Atamifuji, and that only works if we have three or fewer being sent up. 

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After Day 14:

Yusho arasoi:

12-2: M7e Takayasu, S1e Wakatakakage
11-3: M6w Kotonowaka

Sanyaku:

    3-3-8 Terunofuji    Y 
(o) 8-6	  Shodai        O   Takakeisho 8-6
                        O   Mitakeumi  10-4
    12-2  Wakatakakage  S   Abi        7-7
(x) 4-10  Takanosho     K   Hoshoryu   7-7 (1)

    7-7   Daieisho      M1
    9-5   Ichinojo      M2
                        M3  
    9-5   Kiribayama    M4
                        M5
                        M6  Kotonowaka 11-3
    12-2  Takayasu      M7

Makuuchi-Juryo:

                    M5   Ishiura      2-6-6 (o)
                    ... 
(1) 5-9 Chiyomaru   M13  Chiyonokuni  5-4-4 (1)
                    M14  
(x) 3-11 Akua       M15
                    M16  
(x) 6-8 Kagayaki    M17  Ichiyamamoto 7-7   (1)

(o) 9-5 Oho         J1   Tsurugisho   6-8   (x)
(o) 10-4 Azumaryu   J2   Hidenoumi    8-6   (1)
                    ...
(0) 11-3 Midorifuji J6
(1) 10-4 Mitoryu    J7

Juryo-Makushita:

                     J6  Shohozan    4-10 (o)
                     ...
                     J10 Churanoumi  5-9 (1)
                     J11
(x) 4-10 Hakuyozan   J12 Atamifuji   6-8 (~)
                     J13
(x) 6-8 Takakento    J14 Kotoyusho   4-10 (x)

(o) 4-3 Chiyoarashi  Ms1 Tochimaru   4-3 (o)
                     Ms2
    4-3 Nishikawa    Ms3
    4-3 Tsushimanada Ms4
(x) 3-3 Fukai        Ms5 Hokuseiho   5-1 (o)
(x) 6-1 Chiyonoumi   Ms6

Juryo yusho arasoi:

12-2: Ryuden
11-3: Midorifuji

Edited by Sue
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A 4-3 Nishikawa with two wins over Juryo opponents could be above a 5-2 Hokuseiho.

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