Reonito

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Haru 2022

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Posted (edited)

Revised makushita joi guess:

Ms1: Nishikawa, Tsushimanada

Ms2: Hokuseiho, Chuyonoumi

Ms3: Kinbozan, Hakuyozan

Ms4: Roga, Chiyosakae

Ms5: Kamito, Shiden (?)

Edited by Reonito

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24 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Seems a little harsh, but they did the same thing to Kotokuzan a year ago.

Churanoumi was more demotable here than the best candidate then.  I'm rather surprised.

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On 23/03/2022 at 16:15, Reonito said:

I'm curious about the makushita promotion priority order. Seems like with two open slots, Ms1e Chiyoarashi (4-2) must go up no matter what, and so would Chiyonoumi with a win to go 7-0. Could Tochimaru get left out yet again even with a 5-2? Would a 6-1 Hokuseiho be ahead of a 4-3 Tochimaru? And where would a 5-2 Hokuseiho slot in among the potential 4-3's?

If I have some luck, I might have a reasonably predictive script to answer these questions by the next time the GTB submissions are due. If so I'll be sure to share my lower-Juryo and Makushita predictions ;-)

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I looked through all the 5-10 J10(east or west) scores on the database and there is no precedent for keeping up someone with this score when given a KK to use from anyone above Ms5. Churanoumi should feel incredibly grateful and Nishikawa should feel robbed. 4/14 times since Juryo became a 14-rung division, this score has survived in Juryo (including this time) at J10w (and 2/6 times at J10e).

Would be seriously looking at only one of Chiyomaru/Chiyonokuni/Kagayaki getting demoted in Makuuchi if the same methodology holds there.

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8 hours ago, Yarimotsu said:

Would be seriously looking at only one of Chiyomaru/Chiyonokuni/Kagayaki getting demoted in Makuuchi if the same methodology holds there.

I had the same thought, which would be really unfair to Midorifuji

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Posted (edited)

Guys, if there's anything the last couple of years taught us is that they're absolutely not demoting Kagayaki unless it'd be truly outrageous to keep him. (Laughing...)

Edited by Koorifuu
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2 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Guys, if there's anything the last couple of years taught us is that they're absolutely not demoting Kagayaki unless it'd be truly outrageous to keep him. (Laughing...)

To ruin a perfectly good meme, they did demote him from M14e with a 5-10 after November, and then kept Ichiyamamoto with the same score from M14w last time.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Reonito said:

To ruin a perfectly good meme, they did demote him from M14e with a 5-10 after November, and then kept Ichiyamamoto with the same score from M14w last time.

Oh no.

I was hoping this was related to Ichiyamamoto having more maegashira wiggle room to slide down to, but it was actually the opposite. Ichiyamamoto stayed in the very last slot of 17w but Kagayaki still went down despite that banzuke having an extra 18e cushion.

My sketchy GTB sketch has been officially updated, Kagayaki's name has been blotted out.

Edited by Koorifuu
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On 29/03/2022 at 18:52, Reonito said:

Revised makushita joi guess:

Ms1: Nishikawa, Tsushimanada

Ms2: Hokuseiho, Chuyonoumi

Ms3: Kinbozan, Hakuyozan

Ms4: Roga, Chiyosakae

Ms5: Kamito, Shiden (?)

I am not so good at the Makushita banzuke, but this is what I came up with:

Makushita Banzuke
East Rank West
Chiyonoumi Ms1 Nishikawa
Hokuseiho Ms2 Tsushimanada
Chiyosakae Ms3 Kinbozan
Hakuyozan Ms4 Kamito
Roga Ms5 Kanno
Kotoyusho Ms6 Shiden
Oshoma Ms7 Fukai
Asagyokusei Ms8 Akiseyama
Shonannoumi Ms9 Shishi
Tomokaze Ms10 Fujiseiun
Osanai    
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3 hours ago, Ack! said:

I am not so good at the Makushita banzuke, but this is what I came up with:

Makushita Banzuke
East Rank West
Chiyonoumi Ms1 Nishikawa
Hokuseiho Ms2 Tsushimanada
Chiyosakae Ms3 Kinbozan
Hakuyozan Ms4 Kamito
Roga Ms5 Kanno
Kotoyusho Ms6 Shiden
Oshoma Ms7 Fukai
Asagyokusei Ms8 Akiseyama
Shonannoumi Ms9 Shishi
Tomokaze Ms10 Fujiseiun
Osanai    

Assuming we're right about the rest of the top 10, I'll be curious to see who among J14 Kotoyusho 4-11, Ms2 Kanno 3-4, Ms11 Shiden 5-2, and possibly Ms17 Shishi 6-1 gets the last spot.

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On 02/04/2022 at 14:34, Reonito said:

Assuming we're right about the rest of the top 10, I'll be curious to see who among J14 Kotoyusho 4-11, Ms2 Kanno 3-4, Ms11 Shiden 5-2, and possibly Ms17 Shishi 6-1 gets the last spot.

Should've known it would be Kotoyusho, who even ends up ahead of Kamito.

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