Reonito

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Haru 2022

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Yarimotsu said:

What do we think the actual odds are for 4 komusubi slots? I did some quick searches and I don't think we've seen any of the "PROMOTE ME!" scores that some recent 4K spots had, but we have seen a record number of "probably should go up" scores this basho. I'm very much a newcomer in this space so take my musings with a grain of salt (or a terutsuyoshi-sized fistful), but can we really rule it out?

I agree with 'nothing can be ruled out' but seems unlikely. Most recent example was 2 KK Komusubi and a 9-6 M1, 10-5 M2 forcing the extra spots.

My take (bear in mind I have a dismal GTB record):

  • Ichinojō 9-6 @ M2e has led to M1e/w the last three occasions it's happened, so Ichinojō seems sorted somewhere at M1.
  • Kiribayama: 10-5 @ M4e nearly always leads to lower sanyaku, but recent examples are with an underperforming sanyaku/joi.
    • Bringing the west side in opens this up a bit more, and M1e is not unheard of.
  • Kotonowaka: 11-4 @ M6w has a decent M2e/w precedent
  • Takayasu: 12-3 @ M7e has always wound up in sanyaku
    • Open up the west side, M1/2 and even M4 comes into play.

So Daieishō up, those four all in the joi makes sense. The joi order? Jeepers. I dunno.

Edited by Godango
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I appreciate both replies and you encouraged me to dig further. I found good counter-argument banzuke for extra sanyaku promotion. Kyushu 2006 where 10-5 M2e Kotoshogiku and 10-5 M3w Dejima were denied Komusubi. To obtain the rank they would have simply had to fill the 2 slots left open by falling komusubi Kokkai and Aminishiki, but the committee chose to close those extra komusubi slots instead and promote nobody. Haru 2021 is much more recent and makes the understanding clear for me: If 10-5 M2w Wakatakakage and 10-5 M3e Meisei aren't going up, then this crowd isn't either. Nevertheless, here is my analysis:

For the 11-4 M6w I checked every outcome since 1980 and they only promote this rank when they have nobody better available to fill a hole. So Kotonowaka will not yet make sanyaku.

Interestingly enough, Takayasu himself has precedent in not reaching sanyaku from a 12-3 M73 JY performance. Hatsu 2013, he landed at M1e - Aminishiki had to be promoted to replace Shohozan, and nobody else could rise to a 4th komusubi slot alongside Takayasu to make an even number of sanyaku (I think I've noticed some desire for this as a pattern). (side note) In researching this one I saw Nagoya 2004 does not seem to follow the rule for putting a 4th yokozuna+ozeki in the west slot to balance the lone east yokozuna (at least in the database).

Summary: 12-3 M7e only reaches sanyaku when necessary to replace someone falling, since 1980 (and even missed out alongside a 12-3 M5w in 2008).

Aki 2001 is the only instance I find where they created an extra rank and promoted a 10-5 M4e - Apparently 13-2 Y for M2e Kotomitsuki combined with one sekiwake being a fallen kadoban ozeki was enough to require 3 sekiwake for the next tournament, and this made our M4e required to fill a komusubi slot. It was almost certainly Kotomitsuki's yusho which forced this move, and so we can also say this 10-5 M4e score also never forced a new sanyaku slot since 1980.

So the only remaining argument I really have is Ichinojo's 9-6 M2e. This one is different: In the 80s and 90s, this score was considered a certain promotion to sanyaku, and extra slots were created or maintained to allow for that. Tochinonada did not go up from this spot to help fill a closing 3rd sekiwake slot in Haru 2003 . Ever since then, this score has been overlooked for an extra sanyaku slot every time.

 

In conclusion: We absolutely can rule out extra sanyaku slots being created for the next banzuke. If it happens I'll eat my hat or something of equivalent value. The current banzuke committee wouldn't promote any of these 4 guys to komusubi from these scores unless forced to at gunpoint. (Beingninja...)

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1 hour ago, Godango said:

I agree with 'nothing can be ruled out' but seems unlikely. Most recent example was 2 KK Komusubi and a 9-6 M1, 10-5 M2 forcing the extra spots.

My take (bear in mind I have a dismal GTB record):

  • Ichinojō 9-6 @ M2e has led to M1e/w the last three occasions it's happened, so Ichinojō seems sorted somewhere at M1.
  • Kiribayama: 10-5 @ M4e nearly always leads to lower sanyaku, but recent examples are with an underperforming sanyaku/joi.
    • Bringing the west side in opens this up a bit more, and M1e is not unheard of.
  • Kotonowaka: 11-4 @ M6w has a decent M2e/w precedent
  • Takayasu: 12-3 @ M7e has always wound up in sanyaku
    • Open up the west side, M1/2 and even M4 comes into play.

So Daieishō up, those four all in the joi makes sense. The joi order? Jeepers. I dunno.

Have it Takayasu, Ichinojo, Kiribayama, then Kotonowaka (who gets short end for not making the playoff.) No stats to back up, just what makes sense to me. 

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9 minutes ago, Chartorenji said:

Have it Takayasu, Ichinojo, Kiribayama, then Kotonowaka (who gets short end for not making the playoff.) No stats to back up, just what makes sense to me. 

Having just done all the queries for the post above, I'd say swap Ichinojo and Takayasu. The only case of a 9-6 M2e ending M1w was the aforementioned infamous Haru 2021.

13 minutes ago, Yarimotsu said:

Haru 2021: 10-5 M2w Wakatakakage and 10-5 M3e Meisei aren't going up

With Wakataka taking the M1e.

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20 hours ago, Reonito said:

So, assuming three exchanges between juryo and makushita, here's another take at the next makushita joi. It seems like 9 rikishi are locks:

Dropping from juryo: J10 Churanoumi 5-10, J12 Hakuyozan 4-11

KK Ms1-Ms5: Ms4 Tsushimanada 4-3, Ms5 Hokuseiho 5-2

7-0: Ms34 Kinbozan

6-1: Ms6 Chiyonoumi, Ms12 Roga

5-2: Ms6 Chiyosakae, Ms9 Kamito

Who gets the final spot? The contenders are J14 Kotoyusho 4-11, Ms2 Kanno 3-4, Ms11 Shiden 5-2, Ms17 Shishi 6-1. I'm guessing it's not going to be Kanno, but really not sure between the other three.

Gonna reply here to keep topic. Would probably be 

 

Ms1: Churanoumi, Tsushimanada

Ms2: Hokuseiho, Hakuyozan 

Ms3: Chuyonoumi, Kinbozan 

Ms4:  Chiyosakae, Roga 

Ms5: Roga, (and if I were to guess) Shiden

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46 minutes ago, Chartorenji said:

Ms4:  Chiyosakae, Roga 

Ms5: Roga, (and if I were to guess) Shiden

You have Roga twice, one of them should be Kamito I assume?

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16 hours ago, Chartorenji said:

Have it Takayasu, Ichinojo, Kiribayama, then Kotonowaka (who gets short end for not making the playoff.) No stats to back up, just what makes sense to me. 

 

16 hours ago, Yarimotsu said:

Having just done all the queries for the post above, I'd say swap Ichinojo and Takayasu. The only case of a 9-6 M2e ending M1w was the aforementioned infamous Haru 2021.

With Wakataka taking the M1e.

See I'm even thinking Ichinojo, Kiribayama, Takayasu, Kotonowaka.

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5 hours ago, Godango said:

 

See I'm even thinking Ichinojo, Kiribayama, Takayasu, Kotonowaka.

Probably more correct based on what I saw.

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Posted (edited)

Here's what I have for the May Banzuke: (left is east, right is west)

Yokozuna 1 - Terunofuji, empty

Ozeki 1 - Mitakeumi, Shodai

Ozeki 2 - empty, Takakeisho

Sekiwake 1 - Wakatakakage, Abi

Komusubi 1 - Hoshoryu, Daieisho 

Maegashira 1 - Ichinojo, Kiribayama

Maegashira 2 - Takayasu, Kotonowaka

Maegashira 3 - Tamawashi, Endo

Maegashira 4 - Hokutofuji, Takanosho

Maegashira 5 - Onosho, Tobizaru

Maegashira 6 - Wakamotoharu, Takarafuji

Maegashira 7 - Ura, Kotoeko

Maegashira 8 - Shimanoumi, Terutsuyoshi

Maegashira 9 - Kotoshoho, Tochinoshin

Maegashira 10 - Nishikigi, Aoiyama

Maegashira 11 - Miogiryu, Okinoumi

Maegashira 12 - Chiyoshoma, Sadanoumi

Maegashira 13 - Chiyotairyu, Meisei

Maegashira 14 - Ishiura, Ichiyamamoto

Maegashira 15 - Oho, Yutakayama

Maegashira 16 - Azumaryu, Midorifuji

Maegashira 17 - Kotokuzan, Chiyomaru

 

Edited by Osetr

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I know I'm speeding a bit here, but Wakatakakage is at 21 wins over two basho with a yusho and sansho. Has anyone detected any excitement for an ozeki run next basho? 

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2 hours ago, Churaumi said:

I know I'm speeding a bit here, but Wakatakakage is at 21 wins over two basho with a yusho and sansho. Has anyone detected any excitement for an ozeki run next basho? 

There were some words from the YDC pointing in that general direction. Personally, I'd guess an impressive 13-2 would do it; maybe 12-3 if it's a yusho with some big wins.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Churaumi said:

I know I'm speeding a bit here, but Wakatakakage is at 21 wins over two basho with a yusho and sansho. Has anyone detected any excitement for an ozeki run next basho? 

 

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

There were some words from the YDC pointing in that general direction. Personally, I'd guess an impressive 13-2 would do it; maybe 12-3 if it's a yusho with some big wins.

It's broadly comparable to Takakeishō's run, both in approximate rank, result and existing ozeki (although during Takakeishō's run there were an additional two yokozunae).

Here's the comparison:

  Takakeishō Wakatakakage
  Rank Wins Rank Wins
Basho 0 K1w 9 M1e 9
Basho 1 K1e 13 (Y) S1e 12 (Y)
Basho 2 S1e 11-4 (J)    
Basho 3 S1e 10-5    

Looking at the above, I'm inclined to agree with reonito. 13-2 should surely be enough, 12-3 would have to be an impressive one. Remembering what let Takakeishō down ultimately in his 11-4 J was a day 15 lost to Ozeki Gōeidō - so those big wins would absolutely matter here. 

Otherwise, I'd say we're looking at another "give is one more double digit basho" scenario, which I'm all for. Recent promotion leniency (a couple of guys promoted at 32 wins) has been as much about a need to fill the ozeki slot as anything IMHO*, and making sure someone is a consistent performer isn't a bad thing. 

*I would stress that I think all recent ozeki were deserving of promotion, but proving consistency over the long-term (yay Mitakeumi) should probably start to take some precedent as a factor.

Edited by Godango
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13 wins or 12 wins and Yusho.

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1 hour ago, Godango said:

Remembering what let Takakeishō down ultimately in his 11-4 J was a day 15 lost to Ozeki Gōeidō - so those big wins would absolutely matter here. 

 

As I recall, it wasn't just that he lost—it was that, unlike say Asanoyama's very close decision vs. Kakuryu during his own run, Takakeisho got completely blown off the dohyo.

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Takakeisho was also only 22 while Wakatakakage is 27, which should play in WTK's favor. Takakeisho's incredibly one-dimensional brand of sumo might also have played against him. I think if WTK can get 12 wins, there is a very good chance he makes ozeki. 9-12-12 is probably also stronger than 9-13-11, as there is an emphasis on finishing strong. Really the only thing that stops me from saying he is a lock with 12 wins is the unfortunate fact that his run started at M1e and not K1w

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27 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

13 wins or 12 wins and Yusho.

No one has ever won consecutive yusho while ranked below ozeki, so if he pulls it off, he certainly deserves a promotion! 

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6 minutes ago, maglor said:

Takakeisho was also only 22 while Wakatakakage is 27, which should play in WTK's favor. Takakeisho's incredibly one-dimensional brand of sumo might also have played against him. I think if WTK can get 12 wins, there is a very good chance he makes ozeki. 9-12-12 is probably also stronger than 9-13-11, as there is an emphasis on finishing strong. Really the only thing that stops me from saying he is a lock with 12 wins is the unfortunate fact that his run started at M1e and not K1w

I think the last part is right, and also there's 12 wins and there's 12 wins in terms of timing, quality of opponents, etc.

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19 minutes ago, Reonito said:

No one has ever won consecutive yusho while ranked below ozeki, so if he pulls it off, he certainly deserves a promotion! 

Not if it's 11 wins.  Those only technically count as Yusho because someone has to win.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Not if it's 11 wins.  Those only technically count as Yusho because someone has to win.

Right, though there have been only 3 of those in makuuchi since 1958. In the same time period, there have been 114 11-4 yusho in juryo (a pleasing numerical coincidence), showing just how much more parity there is in that division!

Edited by Reonito
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36 minutes ago, Reonito said:

114 11-4 yusho in juryo (a pleasing numerical coincidence)

Now that you've pointed this out I'm going to be heartbroken at the next 11-4 Y in Juryo.

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13 minutes ago, Godango said:

Now that you've pointed this out I'm going to be heartbroken at the next 11-4 Y in Juryo.

Kotoshoho got us to that magic number in January, and they seem to happen about once a year recently, so we may have a bit of time to enjoy it.

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Posted (edited)

Just those 2? I guess they decided to cut Churanoumi and Takakento some slack

Nishikawa's probably very disappointed right now!

Edited by Katooshu

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36 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

Just those 2? I guess they decided to cut Churanoumi and Takakento some slack

Nishikawa's probably very disappointed right now!

Seems a little harsh, but they did the same thing to Kotokuzan a year ago.

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