Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Haru 2022

[Seiyashi 4,071]

15 hours ago, Reonito said:

Last time they underdemoted Kotoyusho with a worse rank-win combo than Shohozan or Atamifuji already have rather than promote Tochimaru, who was above the invisible line...

Arguably that last time was highly exceptional, and they were clearly prepared to promote him. I don't think we can reliably draw from last bashō's circumstances because it really could have been either way.

Edited March 26, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 3,922]

Race for sanyaku:

We have one open spot courtesy of Takanosho proving me right about his long-term prospects.  He's a joi mainstay and will likely be in sanyaku many times, but I don't think he'll make Ozeki.  We will have another spot open if Hoshoryu loses to Kotonowaka on the last day.

In terms of who is in what order for promotions, here's how it looks in terms of pure numbers:

-4e: Takayasu with a win (over Abi)
-3e: Ichinojo with a win (over Tobizaru)
-3w: Kotonowaka with a win
-2e: Takayasu with a loss
-1e: Ichinojo with a loss, Kiribayama with a win (over Kotoeko)
-1w: Kotonowaka with a loss
0e: Daieisho with a win (over Aoiyama), but his placement here is irrelevant since he will almost certainly get one spot if he wins.
1e: Kiribayama with a loss
1w: Tamawashi with a win (over Endo)

It's hard to know how much Kotonowaka and Takayasu's performances might be discounted for facing a bevy of mid-level maegashira given that they also faced quite a lot of sanyaku including all the Ozeki as well as the Sekiwake in the yusho race.  Even if they end up being squeezed out of sanyaku by Hoshoryu and Daieisho winning, it's uncertain whether they might push themselves past Kiribayama and a winning Tamawashi who have good claims to be at the top of the maegashira pile.  I wouldn't be surprised if it will be impossible to put the rikishi in the order they should be by the numbers.

It should be fairly clear that Kotonowaka needs to win to have any chance, while Kiribayama also needs to win and hope for a bunch of losses and preferred treatment over Ichinojo, which is all quite a stretch. 

Takayasu might take the Sekiwake slot with a win, but if Hoshoryu and Daieisho also win there will be no room in sanyaku for him unless they go with 3 Komusubi. 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 3,922]

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

Akua is definitely headed down.  Kagayaki might save himself with a win (over Terutsuyoshi) if there's not enough pressure, but is likely headed down.  Ichiyamamoto (vs. J2 Hidenoumi), and Chiyonokuni (vs. Takarafuji) are on the bubble and would likely be demoted before a winning Kagayaki if they lose.  Chiyomaru (vs. Onosho) can also be demoted with a loss, which would put him on equal terms with a winning Kagayaki.

Oho and Azumaryu are definitely headed back to Makuuchi, so Kagayaki needs losses by the guys on the bubble.  Unfortunately, one of those guys faces Hidenoumi, who will have a clear promotable record if he wins.  Thus it's really only a Chiyonokuni loss that will allow him potential safety with a win, and that's before looking at the rest of the candidates. We also have Midorifuji with a promotable record so far, though we've seen hesitancy to promote from this low when they don't have to.  None of the demotion candidates look like surefire demotions besides Akua, Kagayaki with a loss and Ichiyamamoto with a loss, and those spots are probably already taken.  So Midorifuji likely needs to win (vs. Churanoumi) to force the issue to replace one of the Chiyo- bubble guys losing.  If they both win, there's no room for him even if he wins unless Hidenoumi wins and is denied promotion despite winning a clear exchange bout on Day 15.

Those are all the most reasonable candidates for promotion.  Mitoryu also can get a promotable record with a win, but will also need a bunch of help in the form of the Makuuchi bubble guys losing and being seen as a reasonable replacement; the latter part is probably harder than the former.  The only further records that are anywhere close to promotable are Kitanowka and Ryuden, and they're not going to be nearly good enough given the lack of strong demotion candidates. 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 3,922]

Juryo <-> Makushita

Kotoyusho should have been demoted last basho, and definitely will be this basho.  Hakuyozan will be joining him as well.  Takakento might save himself with a win (over Ms5 Fukai) if there's not enough pressure, as he'll be ahead of a losing Atamifuji (vs. Daishomaru) and a losing Churanoumi (vs. Midorifuji).   The latter two are on the bubble and are clearly safe with wins.

In terms of obvious promotions, there aren't many.  Chiyoarashi and Tochimaru look to be locks for the two open spots.  Nishikawa looks to be in reasonable position to grab the third slot from Takakento or someone else with a worse record.  Hokuseiho needs a win to really be in the conversation (vs. Ms12 Roga), as a 5-2 from Ms5 is likely not good enough to force someone down who is demotable by only 1 or 2 slots, as all of the bubble rikishi are.  That win should be enough to force down a winning Takakento, so he probably just needs that win and isn't a good candidate without it.  Chiyonoumi might only be one slot behind Hokuseiho, but we've seen plenty of evidence of the invisible line preventing promotion from Ms6 when not really needed.  Tsushimanada is at best 4th in line and that's assuming Hokusieho loses and Chiyonoumi is ignored, and probably isn't strong enough to force down either of the Juryo rikishi losing, so he'll need Takakento to lose as well as Hokuseiho.  Fukai might be in an exchange bout, but has no real chance for promotion.

[Reonito 1,335]

2 hours ago, Sakura said:

A 4-3 Nishikawa with two wins over Juryo opponents could be above a 5-2 Hokuseiho.

I think he definitely would be.

[Reonito 1,335]

I think it might be more palatable to demote someone from M17e or J14e with a 7-8 than someone from two ranks higher with a 6-9 or four ranks higher with a 5-10, even if the latter is on the west side and so technically half a rank worse by the numbers. But I haven't looked to see how true this has been in practice.

[Reonito 1,335]

New makushita joi: 5 spots will go to either the KK incumbents or whoever in juryo is exchanged with them. A 6th could be claimed by Fukai with a win. Kinobozan, Chiyonoumi, and Chiyosakae are locks, and so is Roga with a win, which would be all 10 slots spoken for. If Fukai and/or Roga lose, the first spot would go to Kamito, and the next to Shiden with a win. If Shiden also loses, then I Roga would get the last slot even with a loss, unless they decided to keep Kanno in the joi.

[Yamanashi 3,725]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

I think it might be more palatable to demote someone from M17e or J14e with a 7-8 than someone from two ranks higher with a 6-9 or four ranks higher with a 5-10, even if the latter is on the west side and so technically half a rank worse by the numbers. But I haven't looked to see how true this has been in practice.

Interesting.  Plying the db with a 6-9 from M13w suggests a long-term change in thinking by the banzuke committee.

This scenario has happened 34 times (less than I thought), and from 1942-1959 0/8 were dropped to Juryo; then from 1962-1990 everyone was dropped (12/12).  Since then 10/14 have stayed in Makuuchi.

For 5-10 at M13w, only 1/27 has survived since WWII.  So, they think it's just yummy to send down a 5-10 rikishi from four ranks higher.

Two ranks higher (6-9 from M15w): again, safe from 1942-1959, dead from then on (except Myogiru to M16e in 2018).

7-8 from M17e: back in the 50's there was more room, and they stayed in Makuuchi.  This scenario never occurred from 1960-2003.  After that, it's 4/6 staying (including the lucky Kimurayama/Iwatomo, who went 7/8 during the match-fixing scandal and rose two places to M15w).

(Very) long story short, it appears that the survival of a M17e with a 7-8 record depends mostly on what happens higher up the banzuke (retirements, etc.), since that determines if there is an M17w or M18 to fall into.

[Gurowake 3,922]

11 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Interesting.  Plying the db with a 6-9 from M13w suggests a long-term change in thinking by the banzuke committee.

This scenario has happened 34 times (less than I thought), and from 1942-1959 0/8 were dropped to Juryo; then from 1962-1990 everyone was dropped (12/12).  Since then 10/14 have stayed in Makuuchi.

For 5-10 at M13w, only 1/27 has survived since WWII.  So, they think it's just yummy to send down a 5-10 rikishi from four ranks higher.

Two ranks higher (6-9 from M15w): again, safe from 1942-1959, dead from then on (except Myogiru to M16e in 2018).

7-8 from M17e: back in the 50's there was more room, and they stayed in Makuuchi.  This scenario never occurred from 1960-2003.  After that, it's 4/6 staying (including the lucky Kimurayama/Iwatomo, who went 7/8 during the match-fixing scandal and rose two places to M15w).

(Very) long story short, it appears that the survival of a M17e with a 7-8 record depends mostly on what happens higher up the banzuke (retirements, etc.), since that determines if there is an M17w or M18 to fall into.

Are you taking into consideration how large the division is in each case?  That is, how many maegashira ranks there are?

Edited March 27, 2022 by Gurowake

[Yarimotsu 522]

6 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

7-8 from M17e: back in the 50's there was more room, and they stayed in Makuuchi.  This scenario never occurred from 1960-2003.  After that, it's 4/6 staying (including the lucky Kimurayama/Iwatomo, who went 7/8 during the match-fixing scandal and rose two places to M15w).

(Very) long story short, it appears that the survival of a M17e with a 7-8 record depends mostly on what happens higher up the banzuke (retirements, etc.), since that determines if there is an M17w or M18 to fall into.

I looked into this specific conundrum about a month ago and concluded that the survival rates of anything below M15 are pretty much entirely correlated with the size of the division and sanyaku at that time. Unfortunately it really isn't telling us anything more than the specifics of that era - from 1960 to 2003 there were fairly consistently large sanyaku ranks and the division no longer stretched down to M22 or other such ranks.

The 3/5 since then that stayed up under normal circumstances:

Tochinonada - 2005.09 was kept up in favour of demoting a 4-11 Toyozakura from M11w (who deserved to fall half a rung further than the M17e by conventional math). To also demote Tochinonada, 11-4 J8w Tamakasuga would have to be overpromoted by a full rank. So the committee demoted Tochinonada half a rank in compromise.

Chiyoshoma - 2019.03 was kept up in favour of demoting a 5-10 Toyonoshima from M14w (who deserved to fall to M19w/ J3e by conventional math). To also demote Chiyoshoma, 8-7 J4e Takagenji would have to be overpromoted by 3 full ranks. So the committee did not demote Chiyoshoma. An example of extreme failures in makuuchi and a huge load of mid-juryo 8-7 and 9-6 scores.

Kaisei - 2021.11 was kept up in favour of demoting a 5-10 Kagayaki from M14e (who deserved to fall half to M19e/ J2e by conventional math). To also demote Kaisei, 8-7 J3w Bushozan would have to be overpromoted by 2 full ranks. So the committee demoted Kaisei half a rank in compromise.

 

Each of the 3 M17e 7-8 survivals in recent years (ignoring matchfixing) are supported by our old favourite, banzuke math. It's not always right but I don't see how they could've justified the other way around in any of these scenarios. As a result, I see the current demotion order as Akua > Chiyonokuni > Kagayaki > Chiyomaru, with nobody else eligible for demotion, and promotion order as Oho > Azumaryu > Midorifuji with nobody else "deserving" of promotion. As such, I expect Chiyomaru to remain in makuuchi, and kagayaki to be demoted.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Yarimotsu

[Sue 483]

Final results:

Sanyaku:

    3-3-9  Terunofuji     Y 
    9-6	   Shodai         O   Takakeisho 8-7
                          O   Mitakeumi  11-4
    12-3YG Wakatakakage   S   Abi        8-7 (o)
(x) 4-11   Takanosho      K   Hoshoryu   8-7 (o)

    8-7    Daieisho       M1
    9-6    Ichinojo       M2
                          M3  
    10-5   Kiribayama     M4
                          M5
                          M6  Kotonowaka 11-4K
    12-3DK Takayasu       M7

Makuuchi-Juryo:

(~) 5-10  Chiyomaru  M13  Chiyonokuni  5-6-4 (x)
                     M14  
(x) 4-11  Akua       M15
                     M16  
(~) 7-8   Kagayaki   M17  Ichiyamamoto 8-7   (o)

(o) 10-5  Oho        J1
(o) 10-5  Azumaryu   J2   Hidenoumi    8-7   (x)
                     ...
(o) 12-3J Midorifuji J6
(x) 10-5  Mitoryu    J7
                     ...
(x) 13-2Y Ryuden     J13

Juryo-Makushita:

                      J10  Churanoumi  5-10 (x)
                      J11
(x) 4-11 Hakuyozan    J12  Atamifuji   7-8 (o)
                      J13
(~) 7-8  Takakento    J14  Kotoyusho   4-11 (x)

(o) 4-3  Chiyoarashi  Ms1  Tochimaru   4-3 (o)
                      Ms2
    4-3  Nishikawa    Ms3
    4-3  Tsushimanada Ms4
                      Ms5  Hokuseiho   5-2

 

[Gurowake 3,922]

Well, the only question about sanyaku is whether they are going to make an extra one, but that seems rather unlikely.  We'll have the same Sekiwake, Hoshoryu move over to east Komusubi, and Daieisho take west Komusubi.

Chiyonokuni's loss and Kagayaki's win makes the former more demotable and we'll see him going down alongside Akua for Azumaryu and Oho.  For the remaining two slots, you have your choice of Chiyomaru, Kagayaki, and Midorifuji.  While Mitoryu was denied promotion with a J6 12-3 recently, the best candidate to have him replace was not demotable by the numbers, and in this case both Chiyomaru and Kagayaki are, even if the difference between the two is only one slot.  Midorifuji is also on the east side rather than Mitoryu's west.  So unless they throw up their hands trying to pick between Chiyomaru and Kagayaki, my guess is they'll promote Midorifuji.  I'll also guess they'll demote Kagayaki rather than Chiyomaru.

Again we have two very clear promotions of Chiyoarashi and Tochimaru in favor of Kotoyusho and Hakuyozan, while we'll almost certainly see Nishikawa take Churanoumi's place.  It's somewhat up in the air whether Takakento will stay, and my guess is that he will.  I don't think anyone else has a strong enough record to take the spot from someone minimally demotable.  If I was doing the banzuke, I'd get Chiyonoumi in there to replace him, but that invisible line is rather thick.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Gurowake

[Yamanashi 3,725]

11 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Are you taking into consideration how large the division is in each case?  That is, how many maegashira ranks there are?

Yes, to the extent that I added the phrases "there was more room" and "since that determines if there is an M17w or M18 to fall into".

I didn't want to go through an extensive "# of M ranks" study, but I do know that currently that number depends on retirements and promotions/demotions from higher ranks, so obviously the possibility of maintaining your M rank vanishes if you are at the very bottom rung of the ladder.

[Ripe 70]

36 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Well, the only question about sanyaku is whether they are going to make an extra one, but that seems rather unlikely.  We'll have the same Sekiwake, Hoshoryu move over to east Komusubi, and Daieisho take west Komusubi.

If they didn't add an extra slot for Kyokutenho when he won a yusho from M7w I don't see them opening a slot for Takayasu, especially considering him going from 10-0 to 12-3... besides, is he the next one up or is it Ichinojo who went 9-6 from M2e?

[Koorifuu 886]

28 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Yes, to the extent that I added the phrases "there was more room" and "since that determines if there is an M17w or M18 to fall into".

I didn't want to go through an extensive "# of M ranks" study, but I do know that currently that number depends on retirements and promotions/demotions from higher ranks, so obviously the possibility of maintaining your M rank vanishes if you are at the very bottom rung of the ladder.

A good case study is Oho's 7-8 at M18e a couple of months ago.

Haru Makujiri at M17w or above - he's gone.
Haru Makujiri at M18e - he might've stayed.
Haru Makujiri at M18w - he'd probably have stayed.

Bottom line, when you cut it that close, it's always going to depend on situations out of your control. Retirements, ozeki promotions/demotions, banzuke makers creating extra lower sanyaku spots...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but as it stands, there'd never be a M19 since the banzuke demands two yokozeki no matter what.

[Yamanashi 3,725]

2 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but as it stands, there'd never be a M19 since the banzuke demands two yokozeki no matter what.

The db says the last M19 was Kiyonomori in Aki 1959.  He reached M9 and retired in 1967, then ran Kisebeya until 2000, producing a Komosubi (Aobayama); passed away in 2019 at age 84.

[Taliesin 68]

I think, if we promise Daieisho that Terunofuji is not skipping natsu, he wouldn't mind staying at M1.

[Reonito 1,335]

5 hours ago, Ripe said:

If they didn't add an extra slot for Kyokutenho when he won a yusho from M7w I don't see them opening a slot for Takayasu, especially considering him going from 10-0 to 12-3... besides, is he the next one up or is it Ichinojo who went 9-6 from M2e?

By the numbers, it's a virtual tie among Ichinojo, Kiribayama, and Kotonowaka, who are all half a win behind Takayasu and half a win ahead of Daieisho, but recent history overwhelmingly argues that Daieisho gets Kw, and I'm guessing Ichinojo (and possibly Kiribayama) by virtue of their rank in the joi will end up ahead of Takayasu and Kotonowaka, even though in the end the strength of the schedule of the lower-ranked yusho contenders was at least comparable.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,248]

How about a compromise - Just make 6 komusubi slots and then start counting the maegashira from M3e

[Reonito 1,335]

So, assuming three exchanges between juryo and makushita, here's another take at the next makushita joi. It seems like 9 rikishi are locks:

Dropping from juryo: J10 Churanoumi 5-10, J12 Hakuyozan 4-11

KK Ms1-Ms5: Ms4 Tsushimanada 4-3, Ms5 Hokuseiho 5-2

7-0: Ms34 Kinbozan

6-1: Ms6 Chiyonoumi, Ms12 Roga

5-2: Ms6 Chiyosakae, Ms9 Kamito

Who gets the final spot? The contenders are J14 Kotoyusho 4-11, Ms2 Kanno 3-4, Ms11 Shiden 5-2, Ms17 Shishi 6-1. I'm guessing it's not going to be Kanno, but really not sure between the other three.

[Yamanashi 3,725]

1 hour ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

How about a compromise - Just make 6 komusubi slots and then start counting the maegashira from M3e

If these guys had any smarts they would make the 6 Komusubi slots and still start from M1.  That way all the Maegashira are happy because they think they got overpromoted, and we won't have to spend next basho arguing whether or not so-and-so will be sliding down from M16w to M17e with a 7-8 make-koshi.

Edited March 28, 2022 by Yamanashi
I can't spell Japanese in English

[Reonito 1,335]

19 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

If these guys had any smarts they would make the 6 Komusubi slots and still start from M1.  That way all the Maegashira are happy because they think they got overpromoted, and we won't have to spend next basho arguing whether or not so-and-so will be sliding down from M16w to M17e with a 7-8 make-koshi.

Good luck with the GTB guess for that banzuke 

[Gurowake 3,922]

Top of Juryo looks pretty packed.  Not as bad as when Tochinoshin got shafted on his way back up, but there's a lot of people 1 rank off from where they "should" be.

 

???	J1	Chiyonokuni(5-6 M13w)
Hidenoumi(8-7 J2w)	J2	Mitoryu(10-5 J7e)
Ryuden(13-2 J13e)	J3	Tsurugisho(7-8 J1w)
Kitanowaka(11-4 J10e)	J4	Akua(4-11 M15e)
Daishoho(10-5 J9e)	J5	Tohakuryu(7-8 J3w)
Daiamami(7-8 J5e)	J6	Nishikifuji(7-8 J5w)
Enho(10-5 J11w)	J7	Yago(8-7 J8e)
Tokushoryu(7-8 J7w)	J8	Asanowaka(5-10 J4e)
Kaisho(5-10 J4w)	J9	Kaisei(4-11 J3e)
Shimazuumi(8-7 J13w)	J10	Bushozan(6-9 J9w)
Hiradoumi(7-8 J11e)	J11	Shohozan(4-11 J6w)
Daishomaru(5-10 J8w)	J12	Atamifuji(7-8 J12w)
Chiyoarashi(4-3 Ms1e)	J13	Tochimaru(4-3 Ms1w)
Nishikawa(4-3 Ms3e)	J14	???

[Yarimotsu 522]

What do we think the actual odds are for 4 komusubi slots? I did some quick searches and I don't think we've seen any of the "PROMOTE ME!" scores that some recent 4K spots had, but we have seen a record number of "probably should go up" scores this basho. I'm very much a newcomer in this space so take my musings with a grain of salt (or a terutsuyoshi-sized fistful), but can we really rule it out?

[Reonito 1,335]

9 minutes ago, Yarimotsu said:

What do we think the actual odds are for 4 komusubi slots? I did some quick searches and I don't think we've seen any of the "PROMOTE ME!" scores that some recent 4K spots had, but we have seen a record number of "probably should go up" scores this basho. I'm very much a newcomer in this space so take my musings with a grain of salt (or a terutsuyoshi-sized fistful), but can we really rule it out?

While nothing can be ruled out, I think we've learned that with the current shimpan department, it takes an overwhelming case to create extra slots.