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Hoshotakamoto

March Madness (Makushita)

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For the past year I have enjoyed drawing up brackets for the Makushita yusho (as well as consolation brackets for those still in contention to finish 6-1 or win a backdoor yusho).

Here is a spreadsheet version of March 2022, currently 24 hours out of date (it reflects results for day 1 and day 2).

Yes, I am aware that all matchups are subject to change, both as sekitori members pull out, and as members of the same Heya advance to the same part of the bracket. The final version of this will be retconned to demonstrate the precise path that was navigated by the yusho winner.

 

bJDyBhY.png

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57 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

For the past year I have enjoyed drawing up brackets for the Makushita yusho (as well as consolation brackets for those still in contention to finish 6-1 or win a backdoor yusho).

Here is a spreadsheet version of March 2022, currently 24 hours out of date (it reflects results for day 1 and day 2).

Yes, I am aware that all matchups are subject to change, both as sekitori members pull out, and as members of the same Heya advance to the same part of the bracket. The final version of this will be retconned to demonstrate the precise path that was navigated by the yusho winner.

 

bJDyBhY.png

I love this.

By the way, that 'consolation bracket' for one-time losers is very reminiscent of the losers' bracket in a double elimination tournament, with the difference that the winner of said bracket gets a final shot at the undefeated competitor and that won't happen in sumo.

Come to think of it, that detaile aside, lower division yusho races are not too different from  double elimination tournaments.

In fact, the basho as a whole are pretty much Swiss system tournaments for the 7-day divisions (a system I used a lot in competitions during my youth) with the caveat that, usually in Swiss, ties are broken by their opponents' results. For example: Over 5 rounds, Person X and Person Y are tied in the lead with 5 wins. Person X's opponents scored a total of 14 wins, Person Y's scored 11. Person X is ranked higher.

Such thing doesn't occur in ozumo, obviously. 6 wins are 6 wins.

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Posted (edited)

This is not an extremely valuable update since it's a near certainty that I will have to reconfigure the matchups with Ishiura's departure. Nonetheless the most direct followup to my initial post contains these updated outcomes from days 3 and 4.

EDIT: I spoke without reading the matchups on the sumo website. It turns out that this is a reliable depiction of round 3 of the yusho race. Still no telling how round 4 will play out (e.g. Tochimaru could easily win and then get called up to face a Juryo).

 

2QrnI2C.png

Edited by Hoshotakamoto
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Tochimaru vs. Tsushimanada is on the Day 5 torikumi, so Ishiura's absence may not play a role in the Makushita "elimination tournament."

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I don't know how easy this is to read any more. The best online bracket generators I could find online support up to 32 and I might just do that for days 7-13.

Also planning to post the one-loss bracket here soon but it is significantly more work than bookkeeping the single-elimination race, and of course there are several 6-1 finishers.epjW4qj.png

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Tochimaru will fight on Day 6 as well, meaning he shouldn't take part in the next round.

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2 hours ago, Sakura said:

Tochimaru will fight on Day 6 as well, meaning he shouldn't take part in the next round.

Yeah so here is where the ground starts to shift and we won't know until afterwards whether Takakento is just another early-round exit or if Takakento clips the whole branch of the top Makushita rikishi off of the winning bracket. One example I recall was when Abi won the makushita yusho in March of last year but Daishoho was 5-2 with an undefeated record against other Makushita wrestlers. Should Daishoho have been the champion? From the perspective of Abi, Daishoho was effectively competing in a different division than the one Abi won.

Here's what the bracket would look like if Tochimaru prevails against Takakento. I rendered this using a website called scorecount that supports up to 32 finalists. e18bAgx.png

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1 hour ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

Yeah so here is where the ground starts to shift and we won't know until afterwards whether Takakento is just another early-round exit or if Takakento clips the whole branch of the top Makushita rikishi off of the winning bracket. One example I recall was when Abi won the makushita yusho in March of last year but Daishoho was 5-2 with an undefeated record against other Makushita wrestlers. Should Daishoho have been the champion? From the perspective of Abi, Daishoho was effectively competing in a different division than the one Abi won.

Here's what the bracket would look like if Tochimaru prevails against Takakento. I rendered this using a website called scorecount that supports up to 32 finalists. e18bAgx.png

If Takakento effectively removes Tochimaru from the bracket, I presume that means this is what the brackets will look like.

img

I imagine that if enough people are removed from contention via juryo matchups, this would undoubtly reach so far deep into sandanme that they'd start pairing makushita rikishi with a different amount of losses instead.

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I like the twist of the Juryo guys coming in and just breaking a whole arm off the bracket.

Imagine the real March Madness if an NBA team dropped in for a round and bounced out the top seed then just peaced out.

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29 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

I imagine that if enough people are removed from contention via juryo matchups, this would undoubtly reach so far deep into sandanme that they'd start pairing makushita rikishi with a different amount of losses instead.

I don't think they reach below Ms5 for juryo matchups, so after Tochimaru this shouldn't affect the undefeated bracket (although Tochimaru might have to fight up there again at some point even if he bests Takakento).

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48 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

If Takakento effectively removes Tochimaru from the bracket, I presume that means this is what the brackets will look like.

img

I imagine that if enough people are removed from contention via juryo matchups, this would undoubtly reach so far deep into sandanme that they'd start pairing makushita rikishi with a different amount of losses instead.

We came really close in one of the recent basho to me wondering if the top Sandanme person was going to face Ryuden. In fact I think Nishikawa may have been the one to preserve the integrity of the yusho race, if it was in fact the last one?

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This is fun. Good work.

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10 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

We came really close in one of the recent basho to me wondering if the top Sandanme person was going to face Ryuden. In fact I think Nishikawa may have been the one to preserve the integrity of the yusho race, if it was in fact the last one?

yeah. Was Nishikawa, Ryuden, Akiseyama, and Sandanme Roman in the final four for that one. 

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Well Makushita is holding up on both ends. I don't see a lot in the bottom 8 that excites me so I hope that Kinbozan can hold serve this time around. With Hatooka being a recent Sandanme winner and Shishi being Shishi I can see some intrigue at least in the next round for all the matchups in the top half.

At this point there is not very much left happening in the winner's bracket and I will try to put together the 1-loss bracket which is very very busy.

 

M1Ot8Qv.png

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Pasting from the spreadsheet to highlight the fact that Tochimaru has 2 stablemates in the running and things could get dicey if they continue to win (alternately, Kinbozan can wipe out their whole squad on his way to a yusho).9IU99De.png

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Hopes for no chaos lie concurrently with the two matchups yet to be decided. If both Tsukahara and Tochimaru move on, then it's up to Kinbozan

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Posted (edited)

Well we've arrived at an interesting juncture. There would appear to be a 50% chance that we won't have a clean 6-0 vs 6-0 title match. Would like to see Kinbozan vs Chiyonoumi, but aside from that I think I need the 1 loss bracket handy (I assume it would be quite favorable to Chiyoarashi or Hokuseiho).

EDIT: I shouldn't have said Chiyoarashi. Perhaps Tochimaru?

ukuIu4k.png

Edited by Hoshotakamoto
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1 hour ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

Well we've arrived at an interesting juncture. There would appear to be a 50% chance that we won't have a clean 6-0 vs 6-0 title match. Would like to see Kinbozan vs Chiyonoumi, but aside from that I think I need the 1 loss bracket handy (I assume it would be quite favorable to Chiyoarashi or Hokuseiho).

EDIT: I shouldn't have said Chiyoarashi. Perhaps Tochimaru?

ukuIu4k.png

oh my god Kinbozan and Hatooka go to the same heya!? So much chaos

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On 19/03/2022 at 21:00, Hoshotakamoto said:

Pasting from the spreadsheet to highlight the fact that Tochimaru has 2 stablemates in the running and things could get dicey if they continue to win (alternately, Kinbozan can wipe out their whole squad on his way to a yusho).

This particular possibility certainly subverted itself in spectacular fashion.

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11 hours ago, Chartorenji said:

oh my god Kinbozan and Hatooka go to the same heya!? So much chaos

So if both favorites win, or both get upset, things are on track, but one upset brings chaos.

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1 hour ago, Reonito said:

So if both favorites win, or both get upset, things are on track, but one upset brings chaos.

think Kinbozan can handle Chiyooga with ease (Just off of size alone) but Hatooka could present a challenge to Chiyonoumi. Will be interesting to watch

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18 minutes ago, Chartorenji said:

think Kinbozan can handle Chiyooga with ease (Just off of size alone) but Hatooka could present a challenge to Chiyonoumi. Will be interesting to watch

Indeed. Poor Hatooka has rarely had a chance to shine due to his near permainjured status, but he's finally showing what he can do.

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15 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

but aside from that I think I need the 1 loss bracket handy (I assume it would be quite favorable to Chiyoarashi or Hokuseiho).

EDIT: I shouldn't have said Chiyoarashi. Perhaps Tochimaru?

Based on what happened last time this situation arose, the two 6-0 rikishi would get 5-1 opponents near them in rank but outside the top 10 promotion zone.

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